Best refinancing strategy for Eurobonds is US$36 billion marijuana industrialization strategy

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GREEN Party Presidential Candidate Peter Sinkamba
GREEN Party Presidential Candidate Peter Sinkamba

The proposed Eurobond refinancing strategy, if concluded by end of 2017, may escalate the total national debt from the current US$11.7 billion to approximately US$19.2 billion. Using 2014 GDP values, this means the total national debt in 2017, as a percentage of GDP is likely to rise from the current 47% to 68%.

However, if our estimate of GDP for 2016 is confirmed at US$21 billion, then the total national debt as a percentage of GDP is likely to rise from the current 47% to approximately 91% in 2017. Our economic performance estimates for the country for 2016 suggest likely shrink of GDP by approximately 18% relative to 2014.

Here is our analysis of the refinancing strategy: Government has announced plans to re-finance three Eurobonds totaling $2.8 billion that it issued between 2012 and 2015. The first Eurobond issued in 2012 was worth US$750 million; the second one issued in 2014 was worth US$1 billion and the last issued in 2015 was worth US$1.25 billion.

The external debt stock, minus interest, has risen to US$6.7 billion while the domestic debt is around US$3 billion. Interest on both the external and internal debt is around US$2.7 billion. Therefore the total national debt, inclusive interest, is sitting around US$11.7 billion.

What therefore will be the implications of the proposed US$2.8 billion Eurobond refinancing strategy on the total national debt?

The first implication is that if Government manages to get bond subscription of US$2.8 billion, and if this whole money gotten is used to pay off the entire Eurobond principal (i.e. US$2.8 billion), then the only liability remaining from 2012-2015 Eurobonds will be interest repayments averaging US$270 million per year up to 2026.

The second implication is that Government will not run the risk of defaulting full payments in 2022, 2024 and 2025……so provides a pseudo picture of a “good borrower”, who “deserves more loans” and on this premise, Government plans to borrow another US$3 billion with a longer repayment period.This means the total debt, without interest, consequent to the refinancing strategy will be US$5.8 billion. This debt will accrue between US$4.5-5.5 billion interest by 2030 to 2035. In a nutshell, including interest, the proposed refinancing will cost Zambians not less than US$10.3 billion by maturity time (10-15 years).

The third implication is that, if the two transactions are concluded in in 2017, the total national debt will rise from the current US$11.7 billion to approximately US$19.2 billion. Using 2014 GDP values, this means the total national debt in 2017, as a percentage of GDP will be rise from the current 47% to 68%.

However, if our estimate of GDP for 2016 is confirmed at US$21 billion, because of the approximately 18% shrink of the economy relative to 2014 as indicated above, then the total national debt as a percentage of GDP will rise from the current 47% to approximately 91% in 2017.

As we have said before, and we repeat, the best refinancing strategy for Eurobonds is the Green Party US$36 billion marijuana industrialization strategy. The rest will just worsen the situation. We need to grow the economy, and end poverty, from our own resources instead of borrowing. Borrowing is not sustainable because it will just end up enslaving our future generations.

Peter Sinkamba
President
Green Party of Zambia

62 COMMENTS

  1. +1
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    I did not see that coming. personally I do not smoke the herb, but Malawian gold is some of the best Marijuana on the planet.

    Viva president Nawakwi who is having a convention this year.

    • +3
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      He may have a point but because our leaders can not stand up to IMF we shall continue begging when God has given us resources that grow naturally on our soil.

    • +4
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      These billion dollars looks fair, but my question to lunatic Sinkamba is:
      Will EURO accept money from sell of Marijuana?

    • +4
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      There is something seriously wrong if people such as this Sinkamba appear to be making sense.

      The question is where does the moral boot kick in if we open this door? Which moral ant-hill will the government that sells “weed” jump on to tackle crime? We might as well go the whole Amsterdam model and legalise prostitution as well. Paradoxically crime rates in that part of the world are minimal compared to pseudo-religious entities such as Zambia.

      So will hypocrisy hiding behind high moral standards pay our national debt? Clearly not. Despite our constitutional declaration of being a x-tian nation, we do not even take heed of simple Biblical warnings such as “the borrower is the slave of the lender”. The filth and dirt in our streets is NOT a reflection of the blameless “lamb of…

    • +7
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      I have said it before and I’llsay it again. The Peter mabange will be the only reasonable and credible opposition leader by 2020 and going by his mature way of critising or offering opposing views zambians will find it easy to support him .

    • +1
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      We will pay for our infantile nature of instant gratification …..the numbers surely don’t look good at all ….. but tell that to any average voter on the street …..it’s only sontapo they know…..I have always insisted it’s what you don’t see that’s likely to kill you.

  2. +7
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    I agree with you Sinkamba. Colorado, Washngton State, Oregon etc have no issues with Ganja and these States are making Huge profits. We should try and do that and see how much will made. Lmao!! Viva Sinkamba mudalam

  3. +3
    -1
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    If this govt feels too proud or simply ‘goal shy’ to try Sinkamba’s initiative why not try it even covertly. The GP leader has strongly argued his case more than enough and so far none even among the most educated has come out to objectively counter his option. Isn’ t it high time someone lent him an ear?

  4. +8
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    Funny as it may sound, this crazy man is actually making more sense than the entire PF squad of illiterate baboons. Atleast he can back up his points with figures. The PF will just tell you that they will put more money in your pocket without even givin you the statistical break down of their plans. HH is your man, because with HH you are getting hardcore facts bane. I have no pity for pf chaps who are currently suffering and eating katapa day in and out.

    • +2
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      I’ve chi mutonga,,,.Go smoke a good joint….not the gwembe useless weed. Try Malawi gold. Pure swati strain or some indoor blue cheese or white widow…..chill and join chikambas dobo cabinet as chief taster….

  5. +3
    -4
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    This man Mr Sinkamba must first address and convince Zambians on the following, and what plan he has to prevent our vulnerable young population from becoming drug addicts.

    WHAT IS CANNABIS?
    Also called: – Ganja, Grass, Hash, Pot, Weed, Skunk, Resin, Puff, Pot, Marijuana, Herb, Hashish, Grass, Dope, Lubanje, Ibange, etc..

    Cannabis is the most widely-used illegal drug
    • Cannabis is naturally occurring – it is made from the cannabis plant.
    • The main active chemical in it is tetrahydrocannabinol (or THC for short).

    WHAT ARE THE EFFECTS OF CANNABIS?

    There are many myths about the effects of cannabis – that it’s safe because it’s natural, What is true is that cannabis can have some very real, harmful effects on your mind and body, as well as creating longer-term problems: It…

    • +2
      -3
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      Cont’d … It is classed as a sedating and hallucinogenic drug

      • THC is the ingredient in cannabis that can make you feel very chilled out, hyper happy giggles become very talkative or relaxed. THC can also make you hallucinate, meaning that it can alter your senses, so that you might see, hear or feel things in a different way to normal.
      • Cannabis effects how your brain works. It can make you feel very anxious and even paranoid, it can make it difficult for you to concentrate and learn, make your memory worse and make you feel less motivated.
      • Tobacco and cannabis share some of the same chemical ‘nasties’ and just like smoking tobacco, smoking cannabis has been linked to lung diseases like tuberculosis and lung cancer.
      • Using it has also been linked, in some people, to…

    • +4
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      Cont’d … to serious, long-term mental health problems.
      • It can make you feel very hungry – this is sometimes called ‘getting the munchies’.
      • Some people have one or two drags on a joint and feel light-headed, faint and sick. This is sometimes called a ‘whitey’.
      • Cannabis may cause feelings of anxiety, suspicion, panic and paranoia.

      WHAT ARE THE RISKS?
      Cannabis can mess with your mind
      Cannabis can mess with your mind and with your mood. It can disturb your sleep and can make you depressed. Some will become anxious, panicky, and even aggressive. You might see or hear things which are not there (known as hallucinations) which may be frightening. For some people, cannabis causes hours or even days of anxiety, paranoia, delusions and hallucinations that usually only settles down…

    • +3
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      Cont’d … down after the cannabis is stopped.
      • Cannabis can freak you out – it can cause feelings of anxiety, suspicion, panic and paranoia.
      • For people with illnesses such as schizophrenia, cannabis can cause a serious relapse.

      • Regular cannabis use is known to be associated with an increase in the risk of later developing psychotic illnesses including schizophrenia; and if you have a family background of mental illness, you may also have an increased risk.

    • +1
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      I’ve chi,kala don’t mislead st.upid Zambias. I smoke, my dad smokes, grand dad used to puff thr to his 80s, my grand dad’s dad used to koka….so who the fuc.k is u…..

  6. +3
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    Cont’d ..

    • Cannabis can affect the way the brain works. Regular, heavy use makes it difficult to learn and concentrate and research has linked cannabis use to poor exam results. This is a potentially serious risk if you’re young, when the brain is still developing. People who take a lot of cannabis can also find they lack motivation.
    • A recent review of cannabis research published in the British Medical Journal found those driving under the influence of cannabis had nearly double the risk of a crash.

    • It can increase the heart rate and affect blood pressure, which can be especially harmful for those with heart disease.
    • It is reported that frequent use of cannabis may affect fertility. It can cut a man’s sperm count and can suppress ovulation in women.
    • If you’re…

    • +3
      -3
      vote

      Cont’d ….
      • If you’re pregnant, smoking cannabis may increase the risk of your baby being born smaller than expected.

      CAN YOU GET ADDICTED TO CANNABIS?
      The simple answer is ‘YES, people do become dependent on cannabis’. This means you can get ‘cravings’ for cannabis, and may have difficulty staying off it even if you recognise using it has started to cause you problems.
      And regular users can also get some unpleasant withdrawal symptoms on stopping, including irritability, mood changes, feeling sick, loss of appetite, difficulty sleeping; and even sweating, shaking and diarrhoea in some people.
      You’re also at real risk of getting addicted to nicotine, or staying addicted to it, if you roll your spliffs with tobacco.

      (Extract from:- talktofrank . com )

  7. +2
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    The very fact that this man can given space to rant, says a lot about the kind of leaders we have in Zambia. Yes, debt is getting bigger but the solution being proposed is not for the sane. Our resources are being looted right now, yet Mr Sinkamba is talking about marijuana. Why not talk about industrial hemp, a plant that’s easy to grow and has various applications and is in high demand? Our problem as a nation is that people are looking for very short term solutions and that’s why we can resolve the constitutional issues, which then brings us governments that don’t take us anywhere. The problem isn’t just the president but our lack of common purpose and long term strategy. How in hell do you get Sinkamba to be given space to write crap?

  8. +5
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    We Africans are simply sleeping ..we would rather call this man names than look into what he is saying about medical marijuana… Medical marijuana is used to treat a number of different conditions, including:Alzheimer’s disease, Appetite loss, Cancer, Crohn’s disease, Eating disorders such as anorexia,Glaucoma, Mental health conditions like schizophrenia and posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD), Multiple sclerosis, Muscle spasms,Nausea, Pain, Wasting syndrome (cachexia) etc…The Pharmaceuticals do not want you to know as they will be out of business. The selfsame way the oppressor doesn’t want you to study about self and continue worshiping the bible and white Jesus.

  9. +2
    0
    vote

    go on the streets of armstardam and pull yourself a piece.

    malikana is fine and helpful.

    I use a bit in tea to control my bronchitis

    • +2
      -2
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      Why do you associate it to smoking? It has hundreds of of other uses..its like only associating peanuts to roasted nuts as its only use!!

  10. +4
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    Best Eurobond refinancing strategy is to vote out the goofing PF. Afterall ,under RB the economy was firing very well on all cylinders until the PF came.

  11. +3
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    The Zambian Economy has been mismanaged by Lungu and his PF Ruling Party. The solution lies in finding economic managers first who will assess the damage to the economy and then prescribed a turnaround Programme. The Programme will need macro-economic reforms in Zambia and a financing plan. The Financing Plan will have both domestic and external components. The external financiers will require a Management Team that will mobilise financial resources from long term multi lateral institutions. This is where IMF comes in to play a catalytic role and monitor the implementation of the economic reform programme. The PF govt will have to put its house in order first and rally the Nation around the Programme. This can only be done if Zambians are united and have collective buy-in in the…

  12. +3
    -1
    vote

    When the solution is offered first don’t look at who altered that solution but look in to that solution try to work it out and when you find it unworthy then you can take an other step.I tabled the two solution from sinkamba and mutati and I find that sinkamba has a point.since our copper can’t pay debts,I think it’s high time we switch to green’s idea and see how it can work than paying nkongole with another nkongole.

  13. +3
    -1
    vote

    Walabila bwino ‘che che’, the Bible and it’s Jesus has indeed destroyed humankind especially, fwebachifita. These mind boggling beliefs are and have been the biggest hindrance in as far is human development is concerned. We’re simply mentally colonised when it comes to this Jesus thing. Just look at the bemba pipo from North of Zambia. When they pray and talk about ‘Simon Peter’ for instance, you would think that, he actually came to Kasama with his Jesus, shame….

    • +3
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      vote

      @nkope shinyenga:
      Let’s debate issues at hand instead of bringing other people’s beliefs into question. It’s okey if you are convinced that creation happened by accident, but majority of us Zambians are Christians, not because we are brainwashed but because we can clearly see that creation did not happen by an accident but all things both visible and invisible were created by God. If every house is constructed by someone, what about the complex earth and the entire universe?

    • vote

      @15 Nkope Shinyenga

      Much of that which is touted to be Christianity is fake Christianity. There are even false Christs and false prophets. You seem not able to tell the difference between sheep and wolves in sheep skin. Yes, they do look alike. However, they are different.

  14. +4
    -1
    vote

    The people who colonized you and reminded you that your Gods were evil and your plants were illegal are now reversing from that stance. They told you servitude was bad and turned you into pathetic sheeple yet they have turned away and are now so strongly individualistic they look no further than the weakest link in their own personal lives. Do look closely at what Sinkamba is talking about and legislate medicinal marijuana for a start. I can see pathetic politicians shipping themselves to Nicaragua or Colorado to get a fix of anti-epileptic cures while penalizing their own rich resource back home. Peter, I hear you; not sure if the sheeple have.

  15. +4
    -2
    vote

    Sinkamba always provides an analysis with a surprisingly fair amount of points that are with good substance. A much better analyst than some so called economists like the Hungry Hyena. Personally Sinkamba is the best leader in the Opposition I see at this moment I totally agree with him on some points such as reducing or removing luxury vehicles from top govt officers ie Ministers and even MPs (both Opposition and ruling Party).However ba Sinkamba try to distance yourself from the marijuana activism- reducing sentences for possession and legalising it (within certain limits) is a more reasonable point of debate than expecting Zambia to earn billions from its export.

  16. +3
    -1
    vote

    Iwe Kgose, do bamwenye believe in Jesus? What about the Chinese, Koreans, Malaysians and other nationals in the far East etc? Just because the British colonised you and changed your names including intruding you to fish’s chips, you now believe everything they say? Atase, ati Zambia is a Christian nation, who told you so? Well l am not yet l am Zambian and there’s nothing you can do about it

    • vote

      In all those countries you have mentioned Christians exist. Whether you believe in Jesus or not, one day you will account for your earthly deeds before the almighty God. Just repent, earthly desires and achievements are temporal. Whatever wealthy you have amassed while on earth is vanity, when we die it all remains. You will one day remember the Jesus you are demeaning today. Good luck.

  17. +3
    -1
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    One day they will listen and change. They let people drink chemicals mixed by indians in ndola they call beer and criminalize herb. Bless up Sinkamba Peter

  18. +2
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    This is what happens when you have a an ID.IOT like LUNGU – other lunatics and crazy people like this nu.isanse Sinkamba get space to fill the political vacuum! Even in 1,000 year Cannabis can never make Zambia rich!! Just get that id.iot medically checked and treated properly! How can an adult form a political party concentrated on a single issue of growing a banned substance – Mbanje, Mariuana, etc.

    • vote

      @20 Chilyata

      Cannabis is already making America rich – not in 1,000 years, it is doing so in a few years. Check it out. Sinkamba may not be as crazy as you think.

  19. vote

    Pathetic Zambians would rather call Peter names than consider the merits of his argument. His message is medicinal Marijuana and not street abuse. And other jurisdictions including states in the USA are already producing and reaping big money from this. Yes, there is a huge readily available market for this and it is a noble venture no one will frown upon. I read fools like Nostradamus above questioning whether the money will be accepted. Really? Stupid Africans make me sick.

  20. +3
    -1
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    the only option zambia has is to legalize the export of the herb for medicinal use. alot of coutries (more developed than zambia) are talking about it, but the problem with our current leadership is that they can’t think outside the box…..thats why we need leaders like Sinkamba.

  21. +1
    -1
    vote

    Peter has a point, we need to legalize the international herb. Copper is slowly diminishing, God knows when we are ever going to make profits out of this resource. But when peter speaks sense ati He has smoked Marijuana, But if Backing up ideas and articulating ideas like that are the effects of tetrahydrocanabinoll then peter has just gained another Greens member.

  22. +4
    -1
    vote

    Whether Marijuana is legalised or not, people still smoke it. The question is, where do people get the weed to smoke? Sinkamba is right and the reason some people don’t like him is because they do not think outside the box. Weed can help us come out of the woods of debt.

  23. +1
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    Those are outrageous figure Sinkamba you are quoting. The closest to reach those amount is in the illegal/black market trade of drugs. not the legit business.

  24. 0
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    And why do you think Zambia and Russia signed Memorandums is not for the nuclear energy so that we can make medicines here in Zambia so do not worry Sinkamba’s idea will work. Now stop asking why ECL is moving here and there it is for the same reason to make sure Zambia is developed or can sustain it self.

  25. +3
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    Sinkamba is the only political leader with a unique new plan for Zambia. The problem with people is resistance to new ideas..! We are being discouraged from growing marijuana by our colonial masters while them are making huge profits out of the same plant. Iam voting for sinkamba..come 2021..!

  26. vote

    26 having a good idea does not make one a potential presidential material just stick with Lungu he will deliver, you will see.

  27. +2
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    vote

    Mr.Sinkamba, your points are always valid. Its just a matter of time, your views will be implemented with moderation.

  28. vote

    Plz chikamba go further like what Edith did – import high grade Malawi gold seeds and distribute as your FISP….call Chief smoker for help -call Mpezeni now 09777777777.

  29. vote

    LOL – The fact that NO ONE on this blog, not even Sinkamba himself in any of his hallucinations, has suggested any credible PLAN whatsoever on how to PROTECT OUR VULNERABLE young population from the harmful effects of Marijuana use as I have highlighted in @6 and @7 above, speaks volumes. For as long as you support growing Marijuana WITHOUT coming up with a protection plan for the vulnerable majority in our Country, and erroneously call that ‘thinking outside the box’, you my friend are seeing solutions which are NOT realistic in the real world. This is called hallucinating. Ask yourself:- Why is South America not the richest Continent on Earth? But instead, there are more junkies and drug addicts than anywhere else on the planet.

  30. vote

    You know what Sinkamba has a point try what he is saying. The economic harvest all will celebrate.

  31. vote

    Under the illegitimate and financially indisciplined Chakolwa Edward this will not happen becoz Zambia is not bankable. Only a change of govt and economic Managers will save Zambia. The current and illegitimate Zambian leaders in govt are there to loot financial resources rather than develop the country.

  32. vote

    Peter, apply for a Police permit and conduct a peaceful demo demanding the legalization of medicinal marijuana as a key to recovery of economic depression Zambia is going through. We will support u.

  33. +1
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    The PF has been a pure economic disaster .Let us auction them to the highest bidders and issue a 35yr PF slavery investment bond to pay off Zambia’s disastrous debts.

  34. vote

    You have nothing good to talk about but marijuana? What a nuisance of a leader! All opposition leaders in Zambia are Under 5s.

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