The recent cholera outbreak in the Lusaka District of Zambia, first reported in October 2017, intensified leading to January 2018. Health professionals have described this outbreak as one of the worst in years. According to the Ministry of Health, more than 70 people have succumbed to the cholera epidemic while over 3000 cases of infection have been reported in Lusaka. These death tolls and rapidly rising infection rates have emerged at a time when Zambia is experiencing severe impacts of climate change, as the country faces persistent drought, heatwaves and some of the highest surface temperatures recorded to-date. Although the cause of this outbreak has been reduced to human activity, such as poor waste management systems and the lack of sanitation infrastructures, limited attention has been given to the role climate change could have played in facilitating the ‘rapid’ spread of cholera in Lusaka. A host of global studies, including reports by the World Health Organisation, have identified linkages between climate change and infectious diseases, such as cholera. Several findings show that the rising adverse effects of climate change ‘indirectly’ increase the rate at which cholera is transmitted.
The World Health Organisation defines “cholera as an acute diarrhoeal infection caused by ingestion of food or water contaminated with the bacterium Vibrio cholera.” A recent study of cholera in Bangladesh by Amit Saha and other cholera experts, in 2017, demonstrated that survival of the pathogen that causes cholera could be prolonged, and the rate of contamination and transmission increased, if the aquatic state of the pathogen is altered by the impacts of climate change, through factors such as a change in temperature or variation in the ionic content of water. According to the United Nations, the main impacts of climate change include, but are not limited to rising sea levels, extreme weather events and variable weather patterns. In the realm of cholera, global warming, a case of rising earthly surface temperatures due to rising global greenhouse gas emissions (GHG), has created environmental conditions that stimulate the survival and transmission rate of the pathogen that causes cholera.
Essentially, the cause agent of cholera, the bacterium Vibrio cholarae, proliferate, transmits and contaminates both food and water rapidly, under conditions of high temperature. For example, in Bangladesh, it was reported in a study by Islam and other cholera experts that temperatures above 23.25oC resulted in the exponential rise in the number of cholera cases reported per month. In the graph below, the author plots daily cholera case data and temperature for Lusaka District, from October 2017 to December 2017. The graph shows an exponential rise in cholera cases in this period, with average temperature above 24oC. It is clear from the graph, that global warming continues to take effect, as noted through rising maximum and minimum daily temperatures, when compared to average historical maximum and minimum temperatures. It is now trite that the general cause of cholera in Zambia continues to associate with poor hygiene, sanitation and waste management systems. However, it is now worrying that, in the wake of increasing effects of global warming, the intensity of cholera is likely to increase, if the root causes of this recurring epidemic are not addressed.
Like other developing countries, cholera in Zambia has established itself as a seasonal disease, which declines in winter season, and intensifies during summer. Due to global warming, the balance in the ecosystem has shifted, and summer seasons are getting even warmer while rain seasons are experiencing reducing rainfall. Although historical outbreaks of cholera have been prevalent in times of excessive rainfall, the current episode of the disease comes at a time of prolonged drought and high surface temperatures. One would expect that from previous trends, the lack of adequate rainfall would reduce the probability of a cholera outbreak. However, the main cause of cholera in Zambia has had more to do with human activity, whose spread has only intensified in rainy seasons. It is thus no secret that poor waste and faecal disposal that infuse with stagnated water has been a leading cause of cholera over the years. The current drought, a notable effect of climate change, however presents challenges of its own, to the cholera problem. While a prolonged drought entails limited water for consumption, including agricultural and industrial purposes, a rife cholera outbreak poses the risk of contaminating the existing limited water sources. Contamination of such water sources would render the population vulnerable, through increased rates of infections. For instance, it was reported by the Zambia National Health Institute that of the 2795 water samples collected from wells, boreholes, kiosks and buckets, 38 percent were contaminated with Vibrio cholera.
The treatment of cholera is a familiar and cheap process, in many developing countries. Yet, in Zambia, cholera outbreaks have continued to claim lives over the years, mainly because of limited preparation towards health care infrastructures that are not sufficient to deal with unexpected disasters. Further, limited efforts have been directed towards investing in long-standing preventive measures of cholera through developments in access to clean water and improved sanitation infrastructure. It is evident that climate change is playing a significantly increasing role towards the redistribution of cholera in Zambia. Although government, with help from the Zambia Army, Zambia National Service and Zambia Airforce, has carried out an extensive cleaning campaign to eradicate cholera in Lusaka, sustaining this movement might require long-term solutions to dealing with waste management. A lack of adequate and precise interventions will leave the Zambian population more vulnerable to extreme outbreaks of cholera, and even worse, a failure to deal with the increasing adverse effects of climate change. It is therefore recommended that in order to build enduring resilience towards cholera in Zambia, there is an urgent need to invest in access to clean water, improved sanitation and programmes that will cultivate a hygiene-change behaviour in the population.
By Samson Mbewe
References
AccuWeather. 2018. Data: Daily Temperature of Lusaka District from 2 October to 29 December 2017.accuweather.com
Franchini, M. & Mannucci, P.M. 2015. Impact on human health of climate changes. European Journal of Internal Medicine. 26 (2015): 1-5.
Islam, M.S., Sharker, M.A.Y., Rheman, S., Hossain, S., et al. 2009. Effects of local climate variability on transmission dynamics of cholera in Matlab, Bangladesh. Transactions of the Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene.103 (2009): 1165-1170.
Koelle, K. 2009. The impact of climate on the disease dynamics of cholera.Clinical Microbiology and Infection. 15 (1): 29-31.
Ministry of Health (MOH). 2018. Cholera cases continue to drop lusakatimes.com
Saha, A., Hayen, A., Ali, M., Rosewell, A., et al. 2017. Socioeconomic risk factors for cholera in different transmission settings: An analysis of the data of a cluster randomized trial in Bangladesh. Vaccine.35(2017):5043–5049.
Shope, R. 1991. Global Climate Change and Infectious Diseases.Environmental Health Perspectives. 96 (1991): 171-174.
United Nations. n.d. Climate change affects everyone./www.un.org
World Health Organisation (WHO). 2018. Factsheet: Zambia. WHO
World Health Organisation (WHO). 2018. The global burden of cholera.WHO
By Samson Mbewe
Economist
No, Climate change had nothing to do with it. Climate change does not through garbage in the streets does not make people use plastic bags for toilets.
What a silly analysis. Its dirt. Zambians need to learn hygiene period. The most dirty people in the world. We need ministries to sensitize citizens about hygiene. Just like we start teaching children to clean bottoms, brush teeth, and mostly make them understand that feacal matter is not to be danced around with. I end
My understanding this article is that climate change is not particular cause of the cholera. I think the author is trying to say that climate change has contributed to the spread of cholera.
PF will only be remembered for ulubuli, ifiko and cholera.
The current drought has everything to do with climate change but not cholera. What the government should do now is to ban maize export because the signs are very visible. It will be sad to see late response like what happened to this cholera epidemic.
@Divide and Rule
………….including corruption, visionless leaders, pathetic liars, incompetent leaders and you guessed it the biggest debt in the shortest time by the fewest people ( same people getting and giving contracts )
What a party!
ARE YOU CRAZY OR YOU HAVE NOTHING TO WRITE ABOUT OR YOU ARE JUST ABSOLUTELY A DUNDERHEAD. CLIMATE CHANGE AFFECTS EVERY COUNTRY OF MOTHER EARTH. ARE YOU SUCH A DUNDERHEAD THAT YOU DON’T EVEN KNOW THAT ITS THE FILTHY IN ZAMBIA AND MOSTLY LUSAKA WHICH CAUSES CHOLERA AND OTHER AMALWELE YAKUNYA? DON’T WASTE PEOPLES’ TIME.
What a damn assumption. How does Ukunyela panse tie in with Climate change. Your mushy brain is a sign of climate change, not Cholera.
You academicians and your theories, awe mwandi..Anyway, in the spirit of free thinking, we should allow you to give alternative facts. It is your right.
Very long answer. Short is NO. DIRT and UNHYGIENIC behaviors are the cause. Any additional environment enhances it. It is like computerization – when you have nonsense it will only be done faster…
haha! Interesting approach. Yaba…
Scientifically, it is possible that high temperatures contributed to the spread… Though the main cause of cholera is the filth Lusaka city has exposed everyone to.
Climate change is a global phenomenon. You don’t expect climate change to affect Lusaka only and leave out the rest of Africa, or Central Africa as it were. Leave science to scientists.
This is the second worst article we have seen today. The worst was proposing sex in prison. Warders will have a tough job untangling people having sex.
kikikiki ba Mbewe, Easterners are a joke, too much eating rats. Thankyou for your efforts, but the study or analysis was unnecessary!
Mr. Samson Mbewe, a very good article, well laid out, and with supporting references and graphs. You truly deserve compliments for this piece of work.
A word of warning. You need to highlight the conclusions. You say “in Zambia, there is an urgent need to invest in access to clean water, improved sanitation and programmes that will cultivate a hygiene-change behaviour in the population” but it is hidden at the end of your document.
The corrupt incompetent ignoramuses in Government will just grab the headline to absolve themselves of blame! Just like they have blamed “the drought” for our load shedding that was really caused by their own incompetence and lack of VISION! And their STEALING of public funds meant for development such as this.
He left out the core of the paper from the conclusion. That is why science must be left to scientists. This is not Chikwakwa where volumes of work determine effort. In science, coordination of findings is what earns marks.
Brother Mbewe, your long winded fishing expedition to find cholera in climate change is an exercise in futility. Cholera is a well known disease caused only by the inability to deal with filth which then ends up in our food. Period.
Mbewe is just trying to shift blame from his brother to innocent climate change. Truth is zambia has experienced the worst cholera epidemic under the leadership of mr humble.
The main cause of cholera epidemic was people with no clean drinking water……people drinking out of contaminated wells next to pit latrines ….that is millions of people in Lusaka yhe capital city without clean drinking water, a basic human right.
This is made all the worse considering the corrupt theif lungu just spent $17 billion of our money which we now owe…and still people have no clean drinking water or acceptable sanitation..
It takes a very long duration for climate to change (usually decades). In order to support your theory, you should do an analysis covering a large number of years. From that graph, you only studied a few months. I guess you studied the weather and not the climate. So your theory of climate change on climate change should be dismissed until you come up with credible evidence.
Abantu baku chipata fiyongoli sana, muyebepesha climate change, umulandu wafiko fyenu, that’s why it’s always revolution wise to remove them from power, kk and rb removed from power through revolutionary change.
It has nothing to do with climate change. We’re just dirty period. If people prefer to live or trade in faeces then cholera will be there regardless of weather. If politics both in government and opposition use trading in dirty environment as a campaign tool, then cholera will be our guest. Government and the governed must just accept that you can only kick out cholera by maintaining your surroundings.
1.UPND is to blame for Cholera, supported by Canisius “Njala yamunyokola” Banda.
2.The private sector to blame
3.Climate change to blame but why only in dirty Lusaka?
Next Pilato will be blamed.
No. Poor governance, lack of planning and poor education among the masses.
It would be funny if it wasn’t so dumb!
The epicentres of cholera are in townships with pit latrines and shallow wells. In fact an experiment was carried out where paraffin was poured in a pit latrine and the water in the well started smelling of paraffin. How many toilets are found in the CBD of Lusaka? Hardly any. Do you expect the street vendors to stop answering the call of nature>
Silly P.F apologist, & Cadre @ work.
Zambia has similar climate to neighbouring nations, & they don’t have Cholera, simply because these nations have functioning institutions, & DON’T have a clueless Drunk for President
CHOLERA IS A GIFT TO ZAMBIAN’S FOR VOTING P.F end of!!
Climate change No! Regime Change Yes! Ever since Kaunda was removed cholera became big bigger biggest