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Sunday, September 27, 2020

Zambia can still survive without IMF package – Haabazoka

Economy Zambia can still survive without IMF package – Haabazoka

Lubinda Habazoka
Lubinda Habazoka
Economist Lubinda Haabazoka says it will be a blessing in disguise if government completely foregoes its plans to engage the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to recover the Zambian economy.

Dr. Haabazoka says the Country can develop the economy based on sentiments in different sectors without necessarily engaging the IMF.

He says in addition to this that government does have leverage to reduce taxes for preferential sectors or on certain employees than it would if it were to be tied to an IMF programme.

In an interview with Qfm News by telephone Dr. Haabazoka says tying the economy to an IMF programme when taxes are already high will however only mean more suffering.

Dr. Haabazoka who is also a University of Zambia lecturer says there is nothing therefore to cry about whether the government fails to seal any deal with the IMF.

He notes that what is needed is to understand the economy and put it right back on track.


    • The so called Dr is not even addressing the risks that even the government has finally acknowledged …. possible dip in copper prices, droughts, other external shocks such as rise in oil prices that are mostly not under GRZ control??? the government has over committed on loans and it will not be possible to sustain without additional borrowing … and that is a fact! Some of these loans such as the Euro bond will require lump sum payment of the principal….. It is the very reason why the govt keeps going back to IMF. Anyway forgive him this is an academician speaking from behind his desk

    • It’s only a blessing in disguise in that we won’t take on any more debt. One thing for sure is it will get much worse before it gets better, especially without an IMF deal.

  1. With over $USD 8 billion in debt(as per Mwanakatwes figures) and huge repayments around the corner…..the doctor must be high on weed or some other stuff.
    What other tax are you going to introduce to meet these obligations?….Death tax?…Sickness tax?….Breathing tax?
    Guys lets be serious and not support things blindly

  2. That can ONLY work if we had a government that is prudent in the management of funds. I am afraid not with this government. They will continue to borrow and spend on fruitless ventures like the national airline.

  3. Arm chair critic full of book economics Doc, how about they give you a real job in PF government and see what miracles you will perform with your hallucinations. There are two big payments coming in 2021 and 2022 that should be paid in lump sums, failure to which our future is doomed. People like you have taught people who have changed the world with real work and yet you are scared and still cling to lecturing. When are going to start your own business and employ the youths? Like the saying goes, it is simple said than done. Our economy only started booming after our debts were written off and mind you the figure was 7 billion USD now it is 8 billion. How do you start over with so much debt?

  4. Although the comments attributed to Dr are correct in a sense ,Accessibility and access to capital
    markets itself is important You may engage in non deal roadshow simply to sharpen up should economies So what the ministry and the Minister Mwana akatwe is doing with IMF engagement is Correct even if there will be no deal that will result it helps in access and positioning of the Country especially with the current support the country may need to restructure the portfolios with revenues from growth areas You might see some potential return over and above the cost of that capital to make a return and reinvest

    Continue with Engagement and connect with Japanese Gov also firmly to…

  5. ensure well covered well diversified in funding methods to remove the much talked about default risk That is how even small businesses run with credit lines just in case the the plans donot come at, at effective cost of capital

    See you Napyamo for now will be Just watching from the trances //

  6. Dr Lubinda, please kindly bring out solutions, which may assist our Government turnaround our Economy.

    • Only KK had a solution to our problems until he completely nationalized the mines. Others are just hot wind.

  7. You Say Zambia can survive without IMF as an economist tell us how. Give us details boss. So far it’s just Sunday hangover talk.

  8. He is right after all the country generates a lot of money that just end up in peoples’ pockets. Zambia is very rich its got all the money it needs. Just blame the thieving boma and its party. Its surprising that even donars wonder why they should donate to a richer country than theirs in terms of resources name it minerals, trees, grass, good weather and climate, rivers, vast land with very few people – even fewer than the population of just London.
    Just what has gone wrong????????????
    We are just dull and non productive.

  9. The reasons why government wants an IMF bail out is because it has a permanent deficit and therefore wants long-term funding. He says the Country can develop the economy based on sentiments in different sectors without necessarily engaging the IMF. What are these sentiments? This is waffle.

    He says in addition to this that government does have leverage to reduce taxes for preferential sectors or on certain employees than it would if it were to be tied to an IMF programme. If government has leverage to reduce taxes, why is it now chasing the mines for taxes which are not even recoverable? This is not a tax problem this is a problem of reckless spending.

  10. Its very necessary to maintain IMF and other Institutional access and infact They have committed to maintaining and containing the Expenditure and emphasize on REVENUES mobilizations Sometimes That expenditure has seen in the reports has been slowed done and Improvements seen as on YOY bearing in mind the reason of spending INFRASTRUCTURE DEVELOPMENT

    You may budget for a surplus but then you encure funding deficits resulting from adverse movements outside your best forecasts and consensus in rates and markets Even when best risk management is in place sometimes you may miss the target and then In the absence of a ZAMBIAN SOVEREIGN WEALTHY FUND for long-term sustenance…

  11. ,such stand by Arrangements are necessary and Prudent like the Gov has and always maintains healthy access to capital and Financial markets to ensure the efficiency and depth development of the economy and also that the Economy is not run on Plan A alone but Plan B also interms of financing ,methods You need access to credit lines and Financial and capital markets Institutional Access must be maintained always Its also a source of Positive FDIs and Capital to Zambia

    You may not draw anything in those promotions and roadshows ,and with only require when critical at minimal arrangement or commitment fees

  12. LT robot, any comment? I know that you are incapable of thinking but I am also aware that h.h is supposed to be an economist, you can ask him to think for you and then communicate to us.

    • They need to borrow…..they are incapable of creating jobs and they are too used of stealing by awarding each other contracts…

  13. Dr Haabazoka is only half correct. The problem is that this government lacks the discipline to simply say within its own bounds. The lack prudence, plain and simple.

    Judging by the pace of debt accumulation and leakages, the only regulating factor is an external force.

    By the way, once we exit an IMF programme, we are likely to fall back if we did not acquire discipline.

  14. Lubinda is right Zambia has not been surving on IMF since independence ,in any case many countries have complained about IMF economic measures on the borrowing country.People were complaining about Zambia getting a loan from IMF, they are now talking ill about the whole issue.

    • In simple terms Mutale never borrowed money from the kaloba but one one he was forced to do so by some circumstances. Because he has to pay 50% interest Mutale has continued to borrow in order to ” fill the hole ” left by the exorbitant interest. I understand Libya under Gaddafi never borrowed from any of these institutions?

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