Sunday, June 16, 2024

Zambia is not in a debt crisis- Oliver Saasa


Economist Oliver Saasa
Economist Oliver Saasa

Economist Oliver Saasa has called on Government to set up comprehensive policies that will help address the widening fiscal deficit. Professor Saasa however noted that the country is not in a debt crisis.

He has since called on Government to constitute a team of professionals to find a lasting solution to the debt problem. Professor Saasa was speaking at a media briefing in Lusaka today.

And Consumer Unity and Trust Society (CUTS) Centre Coordinator Chenai Mukumba said the debt has had a negative impact on the ordinary people.

And Jesuit Centre for Theological Reflection (JCTR) Director Emmanuel Mumba said social sector spending is being compromised by the debt.

Meanwhile, Government has projected to roll out a K84.6 billion national budget for the year 2019. According to the government’s Green Paper released last week ahead of the 2019 national budget presentation, Zambia’s GDP has been projected to grow to over K300 billion next year, up from K277 billion last year.

Government has also projected a total revenue generation of K55.8 billion, representing 18.6 per cent of GDP.

President Edgar Lungu will this Friday officially open Parliament. The head of state is expected to explain government policies and intentions.

And on 28th September Minister of Finance Margaret Mwanakatwe will present the 2019 budget in the house.


  1. Sometimes one wonders if there are any statesmen remaining.Reading this message this is not the Saasa we know,he is probably broke and looking for a job,Africa is indeed cursed

  2. Just watch….after the budget is presented all the figures you see today will be thrown out the window… will be defecits showing up every where….with the begging bowel to the rounds to donner countries…

  3. Zambia is not in a debt crisis. The presidents call to cut down expenditure should be followed. By all in government. Too many crooks.

  4. The Doctor of premiership is okay in his statement it shows that he has taken time to study the budget (Green Paper) and its economic outlook though certain measures appears somehow overly optimistic fore-instance GDP growth forecast should be …………….. and the price of copper projections to 2020 it should be ……………….. and may need to be retraced to ensure safe landing 2018/2019/2020 The revenue measures though can be further broadened as the structure and capacity is further enhanced There will be need to broaden the rates and tax base (types of taxes)not current in the revenue mobilization Then tone down on the expenditure side discretion to fit…

  5. the jacket well as you arrive at the funding gap and remodel the funding methods and structures in bonds treasuries and others

    The Dr of premiership is correct and right on his commentary The outlook looks okay but may be reviewing the Forecasts ,revenues ,certain expenditures and see how the financing if that is not done already Re-look at the economic,market and capital market assumptions and expand on the budget tax card for 2018/2019 to ensure even much better than it is projected to now perform better It looks Good though

  6. “Professor Saasa however noted that the country is not in a debt crisis.”
    “constitute a team of professionals to find a lasting solution to the debt problem.”
    I’m surprised that a Professor can contradict himself in just two sentences….or is it LT trying to put words in his mouth.

  7. I am not an economist so forgive me. But 300 divided by 277 is about 1.08. So is the economy projected to grow by 8%?? Did the green paper not project growth of 4.3% ??

    • The above statement says the economy was K277 billion “last year” meaning 2017, and that it is projected to be K300 billion “next year”, meaning 2019. Therefore, growth is 8.3% over two years.

  8. Its correct that Africa has experienced some renewed economic growth amidst the trade protection risks posed by US that potentially could derail the synchronous global growth There are also vulnerabilities or geopolitical instabilities to direct or indirect markets Zambia exports to and 2018 2019 /2020 will be much more of a concern as the trade protectionism and geopolitical instability result in disruption of global economy and financial markets On There signs that the global economy could potentially overheat and if that occurs Bank of Zambia will have to moderate its projections There are signs of policy error in trying to part the economy to recovery
    Thus said the global economy…

  9. looks promising ,with prospects in business opportunities for Zambia’s budget reasonably high The Japanese economy has anchored well and is positioned to perform well despite the tariffs on metals specifically steel and aluminium ,this is due to the market poised in Asia and also the Chinese economy even in these risks posed by the Two global economic giants , has remained broadly stable to support the Zambian Budget as policy shifts are made to sustain and support growth in that economy
    Therefore a review of Growth projections ,rates and market orientation will be important to ensure the budget records some minimal surplus without the projected fiscal deficit rising way above -6%…

  10. but settling within global acceptable standard it’s not a sin to review and relook at the numbers and rates again
    In short Global gross is projected to grow at 4% ,Canada and US, the preferred market for Chinese at 3% Africa will close at 3.4% in 2018 and grow at 3.7% in 2017

  11. Also Growth and the Budget Can perform by reviewing the Composition of the current financing methods e.g these terms and structure of marketable bonds,tb bills, and the foreign component of debt including the retail yo sync them to the the budget These borrowings in TB,Bonds,grants and Cash reserves can be a source of revenue growth that will result Infact much more than on the expenditure side

  12. Simply Review an re look at the Growth forecast and Price of commodities (copper) in the green paper and see the outlook for 2018/2019/2020 and retrace the plans Its mostly likely the Growth projections in the green paper will be missed marginally There assumptions are overly optimistic because Commodity forecast prices for copper and trade relations will impact
    It’s not like the 2017 projections when global economic conditions were favourably comparable
    Having done the stress testing you can now moderate and manage the rates,inflation,target it just like you closed it at 6.6% in 2017 That is within the policy framework You can manage the import cover and peg it at 3…

  13. months
    Domestic revenue mobilisation may be challenging and therefore you need solid measures and a proper the tax card (all available taxes on the card analysed by 1) to broaden the innovative rates, restructure some and consolidate the measures There is the potential to achieve and say 22% of GDP in revenues

    You can then manage the projections of the fiscal deficit and achieve it might be tricky because of the infra commitments but is achievable within acceptable target
    Composition of debt from foreign to local to achieve a better % to GDP is also where some savings and potential can be realise to work the budget better than the target outcome for 2017

  14. We have too many people believing we can borrow our way out of poverty. The only way to move out of poverty is to produce excess and sale out of the country. The real money is the net Forex we should get after trading on the global stage. As of now we need ways to spur production in the economy of good and services to export. Regional trading is were we should pay attention.

  15. Zed is full of Potential and opportunity It starts with these plans Having a Long-Term Budget Outlook is important because given the prospects in growth and the infra spend ,deficits are projected to rise relative to GDP over the next years if the revenue measures and productivity is not emphasized Looking on only 2 to 3 years gives an incomplete picture though one would agree that this Medium term strategy speaks and aligns at least to the next 10 years in forecast or fiscal outlook under various scenarios in the typical WHERE ARE WE WHERE ARE WE GOING AND HOW DO WE GET THERE Start from fiscal gap ( an accounting measure) and answer those questions for…

  16. long-term fiscal outlook aligning policy changes accordingly to reach the desirable debt to GDP for the future period or periods emphasizing and paying particular attention to the percentage contribution REVENUES to GDP and share of that Expenditure You may hold or increase GDP growth as exists in 2017 by asking what policy measures though the best is for continued or double growth as it were

  17. No the China man forecast will be not like the 6.8% because some financial financial deleveraging in the midst of escalating trade disputes with the mighty US The consensus forecast for 2018 for china is 6.2 % and may be reviewing that in the Green paper and 2019 consensus for economic growth forecast in china is 6.3%

    Well i may not attend your Post budget meeting i have commitments somewhere thanks closed ///

  18. Trade routes can be created,natured and cultivated away from traditional whichever direction whether east west south or other but in the current economics for Zambia the Grow prospects lies in the south–south trade but you need those sectors and companies as carriers and activators to impact net positive trade flows otherwise It all comes to the same But diversification is the key in trades and financials okay ///

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