Fitch Ratings cut Zambia deeper into junk Thursday, citing a widening budget gap and a faster-than-expected rise in debt levels.Zambia’s Eurobonds fell.

The rating company lowered its long-term foreign currency assessment to B- with a negative outlook, the same level as at Standard & Poor’s, which has a positive outlook.

Moody’s cut its assessment in July to Caa1.

Zambia’s 2019 budget, presented by Finance Minister Margaret Mwanakatwe last month, laid out “a significantly less ambitious fiscal consolidation effort” compared to targets her ministry set earlier in September, Fitch said.

The country has also consistently failed to achieve goals to trim the budget gap.

“Upward revisions to fiscal deficits and government debt have weakened the credibility of the government’s fiscal targets,” Fitch said in a statement. “Delayed fiscal consolidation and high debt will weigh on macroeconomic stability.”

Yields on Zambia’s $1 billion of Eurobonds due 2024 rose 33 basis points to 16.64 percent by midday in the capital, Lusaka.

The government is targeting cutting the fiscal deficit to 6.5 percent in 2019 from 7.4 percent this year. That’s “optimistic,” according to Fitch, which sees it reaching 6.9 percent.

Zambia’s debt will hit 69 percent of gross domestic product by the end of this year, up from the previous forecast of 64 percent, the rating company said.

This figure could grow if recent currency depreciation continues, it said.

[Bloomberg]

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27 COMMENTS

  1. This too shall pass! Is this another UPND WHISTLE trying to blow dung? Zambia is on course to development! Keep it up Mr. President! We are supporting you! Your H-enemies Ha not happy but we Ha proud of you! Let’s develop this thing! It is UNELECTABLE!

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    • I think you meant to say “this too was predicted.” I mean, we are governed by folk like “Sharon”. It’s like development is the goal, sound decision making the vehicle, but the least accomplished, least moral and least intelligent among us are the drivers. And they insist on driving in the reverse direction of development. The little development we see has foreign aid written all over it, and merely reflects but s fraction of the resources set aside for said development. Meanwhile, his excellency ECL and his minions feel a sense of accomplishment. Can’t fix what you do not recognize is broken guys.

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  2. Might as well join Sharon in praising PF. It appears the people we are trying to help don’t care. People please do something

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  3. @sharon, nishi ku america nothing that u are learning, which when u go back home people can attest to say baikala kubasungu. Debate constructively, atleast mushota sometimes outlays intellectual understanding tho grammer

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    • When you are appointed to a role ku consulate boss, your primary goal is to show allegiance to appointing person. It’s tea in the morning, sexual affairs all day, and illogical blogging at night to show appreciation for the party leader that appointed you. You can’t stand on merit so you stand on being a wannabe destabilizing force to the opposition. A cadre. If I called that office in DC asking for help with a passport, I’d get zero help. If I called to invite them to an Independence Party, promising liquor, music and anti-HH slogans we would have a discussion for hours. Now you tell me what you expect to get out of a Sharon? ????

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  4. Ii see Sharon fecal matter is back today yesterday it was calm coz she wasn’t there, she had too much sh!t on her hands and couldn’t type useless tribe list. Ur mother should have taken her morning after pill to save from ur stup!d!ty koswe iwe

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  5. Chipantepante govt for you, run by clueless individuals and convicted debarred lawyers from Chawama, what do u expect, finance minister when presenting the budget was p!ssed. We r really in trouble. These morons need to go now they have failed, it just too complicated for them, ba pompwe

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  6. There is an urgent need for a press conference for the president to explain why the PF government should not resign immediately on moral grounds as it has failed miserably. There goes the country down the drain to the sewer. JUNK COUNTRY SURE? Shame!

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  7. UNDERSTANDING THE REASONING “REVENUE FORECAST AS A RESULT OF GROWTH PROSPECTS THE MINISTER HAS THE EXPENDITURE TO STILL STEM AND CONTROL AND ACHIEVE THOSE OPINIONS IN THE RATING RATIONALE TO ACHIEVE THE TARGETS

    HERE IS AN EXTRACT BELOW

    ECONOMY
    IMF lowers global economic growth projections
    BY SOPHIE BAKER · OCTOBER 9, 2018 1:15 PM

    GETTY IMAGES
    Global growth has plateaued as economic risk begins to materialize, warns the International Monetary Fund’s latest World Economic Outlook report.

    The IMF said Tuesday that it had revised global growth for 2018 and 2019 downward vs. projections at its previous update in July. It projects a 3.7% growth rate for 2018 and 2019, vs. 3.9% for both years as predicted in July.

    The 3.7% forecast…

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  8. puts global growth at the same pace as 2017’s actual growth rate, said a blog by Maurice Obstfeld, the economic counselor and director of research at the IMF.China’s growth was also marked down for 2019 by 0.2 percentage points to 6.2%. It remained at 6.6% for 2018.Forecasts for emerging markets and developing economies were also revised downward, by 0.2 percentage points for 2018 to 4.7%; and by 0.4 percentage points for 2019 also to 4.7%.The revisions for emerging markets are geographically diverse, covering Latin America, emerging Europe, South Asia, East Asia, the Middle East and Africa — as well as Nigeria, Kazakhstan, Russia and Saudi Arabia, which will benefit from higher oil prices. Eur-ozone growth for 2018 was revised downward by 0.2 percentage points to 2%, but remained at 1…

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  9. Napthali trying to explain things you plagiarized from somewhere is not ideal. Just sit down we are not to be moved by people trying to sound too technical but can’t implement nothing of what they speak of.lets emulate Sierra Leone by saying no to these Chinese loans

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  10. The fact is we are already in deep deep trouble and as long as we have this leadership with no clue the deeper the problem is going to be, coz these guys have no clue of what these agencies are saying, it is like have a blind driver

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  11. They will need to revise the forecasts and emphasis control of expenditure I hinted to say the forecasts were somehow very optimist

    On the contrary also Ethipia has seen a RAPID increase of GDP from about USD 30 Billion in 2009 to USD 80 Billion now in 2018 using the Chinese Model I am not saying you lock in the Chinese debt situation but you will need GROWTH like Ethiopia to create a solid revenue base from which you can reserve to balance your National Accounts You will need capital from many partners to do that and not stagnate

    I see we know what we say and when we quote from authentic sources is simply to put in picture

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  12. Its like my insurer telling me about risks since i pay premiums in short the report is made to the subscribing invest mostly well researched but its not a forgone conclusion on country zambia

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  13. Where are they going to get the money to pay the Chinese loans, from China again or where? China will have to inherit all the national assets upon which these loans are borrowed. The downgrading means Zambia is now a risk country to borrow money to. Where did the money of the loans go?

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