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Saturday, January 23, 2021

IMF sharply cuts Zambia’s GDP growth target for next year, sees higher inflation above 10%

Headlines IMF sharply cuts Zambia’s GDP growth target for next year, sees higher...

Finance Minister Margaret Mwanakatwe shows off a boxed water after a meeting with the World Bank in Washington D.C
Finance Minister Margaret Mwanakatwe shows off a boxed water after a meeting with the World Bank in Washington D.C

The International Monetary Fund has projected that Zambia’s economic growth will fall to 2.9 percent next year from the 3.1 targeted for this year.

In its annual World Economic Report released on Tuesday at the ongoing Springs Meeting in Washington D.C, the Fund also see higher inflation above 10 percent by end of 2019.

It projects that inflation will jump to 12.0 percent in 2020 after closing at 10.7 this year.

And the IMF says the global economy is slowing more than expected and a sharp downturn could require world leaders to coordinate stimulus measures.

The Report pointed to the U.S.-China trade war and a potentially disorderly British exit from the European Union as key risks and warned that chances of further cuts to the outlook were high.

Some major economies, including China and Germany, might need to take short-term actions, the IMF said.

“This is a delicate moment for the global economy,” IMF chief economist Gita Gopinath said in a news conference to discuss the report.

Governments may need to open their pocketbooks at the same time “across economies” if the slowdown becomes more serious, Gopinath said, adding that loose monetary policy might also be needed.

The comments provided an eerie warning to the global officials gathering in Washington this week for the spring meetings of the IMF and World Bank. The world engaged in coordinated fiscal stimulus to counter the 2008 financial crisis.

The Zambian delegation is led by Finance Minister Margaret Mwanakatwe who started off her busy schedule on Tuesday in Washington D.C with a meeting with the World Bank Country Team for Zambia.

“Just finished a great meeting with the World Bank Country Director for Zambia, Paul Noumba Um, and his team. We were looking at various issues related to cooperation between the two development partners. Away from the meeting, I found it extremely interesting that the World Bank in Washington has moved from serving water in plastic bottles in its meetings to serving it in bio-degradable packages. Zambian manufacturers, what are you waiting for?”

“The initiative by the authorities here in DC reminds me of home in Zambia where plastic carrier bags are no longer given freely in supermarkets or elsewhere. For my friends the youth and women, the measure serves as a business opportunity to begin selling reed baskets and the like. Go for it my people!”

Mrs Mwanakatwe said that she will also take the opportunity of being in Washington to honour invitations by the international community to address elite investors’ and business forums separately organized by Standard Chartered Bank, Barclays Bank, and Bank of America Merrill Lynch for investors from the Asia, Canada, Europe, Middle-East, and the United States of America.

“I am also scheduled to attend the launch of the IMF Regional Economic Outlook for Sub-Saharan Africa, and will be joined at the event by my counterpart Minister of National Development Planning, Alexander Chiteme, who is expected to arrive in Washington later today,” she wrote.

“I addressed my delegation this morning and urged the team to be at their best and to represent the country well. I requested all of them to endeavor to send messages that are consistent with the country’s positive ambitions and aspirations aimed at making Zambia a prosperous middle income nation where no one will be left behind.

The members of my high-level delegation include the Secretary to the Treasury Fredson Yamba, Deputy Secretary to the Cabinet [Finance and Economic Development] Christopher Mvunga, and Bank of Zambia Governor Dr. Denny Kalyalya.

The others are Ministry of Development Planning Permanent Secretary Chola Chabala, Ministry of Finance Permanent Secretary for Economic Management and Finance Mukuli Chikuba, Zambia Revenue Authority Commissioner General Kingsley Chanda, and Zambia Integrated Forestry Landscape Project Coordinator, Dr. Tasila Banda.

“While in Washington, DC, my delegation will attend and participate in events, meetings, seminars and sessions of both the International Monetary Fund [IMF] and the World Bank Group (International Bank for Reconstruction and Development – IBRD, International Development Association – IDA, International Finance Corporation – IFC, and the Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency – MIGA.”

“We will also attend the International Monetary and Financial Committee [IMFC]; the highest ranking organ of the IMF, which comprises the IMF Board of Governors [Ministers of Finance and Governors of the Central Bank from 189 member states] and the Executive Board of the Fund. My team will also attend the IMF Africa Group 1 Constituency Meeting and the African Consultative Group (ACG) Meeting with the IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde. Meetings with the Director of the IMF Africa Department, Abebe Selassie, and the IMF Executive Director for Zambia Dumisani Mahlinza are also planned, at which discussions are expected to focus on developments in the economy and the upcoming Article IV Consultation Mission to Zambia,” Mrs Mwanakatwe wrote.

The delegation’s engagements will extend to dialogues with Fitch, Standard and Poor’s, and Moody’s Rating Agencies. At these meetings, the parties will be looking at Zambia’s macroeconomic situation, fiscal affairs, debt matters, and foreign reserves, among other issues.


    • Analyse economic issues objectively and refrain from negativity based on judgement of persons. Zambia is much more than a few individuals.

    • Again I ask, when people have been raisingthese issues, they have been labelled as agents of the opposition. So IMF are also agents of the opposition?
      You see, when you don’t have the humility to listen to the objective advice of qualified people, but instead choose to listen to job seekers like habazoka, you end up missing opportunity to correct the situation. Now here we are on the verge of an economic meltdown, all because people were to proud and too greedy. And we have been seeing some bloggers here with high sounding, but hollow concepts and analysis of issues.

    • If you surround yourself with bootlickers whose only interest is to line their pockets, you achieve nothing. When the day of reckoning comes, they flee and scatter like swine from underneath a falling tree.

    • It is true @Obatala.

      @Nine Chale – there is no other way to put it. It is that simple.

      We have selfish thieving leaders, that happen to be drunkards, and possibly mentally disabled.

      Is that combination good for Zambia?

    • And the president is flying around shouting on platforms for Parliamentary seats …directing municipal councils!!

    • This is what we’ve been singing since 2011. PF policies will sink the country.
      Forex Reserves will fall below $1-Billion before December & soon Kwacha will start bleeding exercise as there’ll be no shock absorber.

      Most PF-loans have started maturing, so now Govt has to pay interest + principle amount.

      Zambians will manage to myanga their Namayoz (lick their elbows).

    • She looks drunk.
      Is she about to become the 6th musketeer?
      twitter. com/KundaMash/status/1093214486918504448?s=20

    • Assuming my comment counts for anything, I will reserve this one because I have already commented on Margaret Mwanakatwe on another ‘related’ article.

    • LT please learn to call a spade a spade. Why are you shying away from telling the nation that its the thieving Lungu and his PF that have bankrupted our economy and not Brexit or China US trade war.
      Brexit and China US trade war has a negligible effect on developing nations economies because they are mainly primary producer economies which heavily rely on external debt to finance their imports and balance of payments.

      How come Botswana and Tanzania s economies are doing far better than Zambia despite Brexit and China US trade war.

      This economic slowdown has been caused by PF and corrupt Lungu.

    • Why does Zambia always puts the trust in IMF as Zambia is a poor nation with no natural resources. The biggest pa Zed is corruption and theft by public servants, tribalism that affects employment and any other prospect opportunities, and selfness at large. Talks with IMF is like EVIL vs GOD period.

    • Btw… MM. Zambian manufacturers need the support of the civil servants. Without their money, we can’t sell our merchandise! Pay them… then talk!

    • Ifiwelewele ifi masquarading as technocrats. Fyalisambilila but ubupa ebwafula. Thanks to all clowns who voted for and support PF.

  1. She doesn’t even seem to be worried. She probably woke up with a hang-over. Where did PF get its such ugly women who can’t perform???!!! At least if you are ugly, you should be able to perform. Not Both? Mr Nkandu Luo and Mr Margaret Mwanakatwe.

    • And the IMF says the global economy is slowing more than expected and a sharp downturn could require world leaders to coordinate stimulus measures.

      The Report pointed to the U.S.-China trade war and a potentially disorderly British exit from the European Union as key risks and warned that chances of further cuts to the outlook were high.

      Some major economies, including China and Germany, might need to take short-term actions, the IMF said.

  2. Economists are like Lawyers, very useless characters. You will soon hear another economist project expected growth at 5% with ‘convincing’ reasons!! I can see in the picture Mayela slay queen is now careful with her handbag.

    • If this report is accurate and hh becomes president in 2o21 then zambias economy will collapse. The prejection puts the inflation at 12.5 pc from 10pc by 2020. Here is the proof that hh cant make things better in zambia. Lets not even try him.

    • Oval – Instead of trying to make a futile attempt of reverse psychology…I advise you attend night school and at least learn the difference between acres and hectares. Zambia doesn’t revolve around those people!!

    • I like it when you talk anout hectares and acres because thats the only time you fail to insult. I suggest you keep reciting the words before commenting.

    • Yes off I will and will never forget the time you exposed how much of a dullard Grade 9 you are…am sure you have Freedom Sikazwe and SG Mwila on speed dial.

  3. Look , Zambia imports almost 80% of things sold in shops…..

    Only PF and their cader LT resident rats don’t see anything wrong with this…..

    We told you so …….

    With lungu at the helm, Zambia has missed the boat….

    I was always saying with he PF policy of spending the $17 billion on corruption driven projects , Zambians are at the mercy of the world economy and the weather, any wobble in any of those and you will see…..

    • What We told You So chembere. Relax. What can your (HH) do better than we are doing.
      Your warped hatred makes you a kwindi and not the people you’re calling resident rats.

    • The mess we are in now has nothing to do with HH.
      Stop attacking HH when all he has done is suggest better alternatives.
      And if you have nothing better to say here, just shut it up.


      Fikizolo search that headline from yesterday and find out who sold our mines under the watch of this same IMF.
      If the Under 5 Paradise boy never sold our mines we would be better off today.

    • Kudos

      That’s all you can recite…..hh selling mines….

      He was not even president…..he must be the most powerful shroud chap ever to have pulled of a feat of selling mines under the noses of you dullards……


    • @Kudo
      Thank God Am not uneducated as you.
      Am a professional person and more than that I have common sense to know that HH never held any government job and never had any authority to sell government property.

  4. Those are global projections and like any projections they may turnout to be different the global economy is dynamic but for group think mentality UPND danderheads and sycophants they can’t analyse issues because they’re stuck with the Supreme leader HH whence thinking the global economy is static…

    • (HH) is a prophet of doom. This Standard Bank warning and IMF warning is a UPND ploy. They think those statistics will scare us into submission for the Supreme small ‘god’ AKA Kaponya (HH).
      Spaka come to Roan and see the real love on the ground for the ruling party.

    • If HH could sell the mines as a lower ranking officer in a company that he worked for and the brilliant minds of government could be outsmarted by an upstart (here take into account the fact that HH was not long experienced in employment) then in the same vein HH could be the negotiation messiah Zambia needs to come out of the recession. Hate HH for his brilliance and continue on national downfall! HH is comfortable with his living and the rest of us are just good at despising him as if the same God we all pray to is not his protector too! Every Zambian must be given opportunity to share and implement their ideas for better governance and national benefits!

  5. The IMF has always been skeptical about African economies yet it makes a lot of money from Africa. At one time they advised KK to immediately drop subsidies against his proposal for gradual withdrawa, the result was that there were widespread riots and wildcat strikes. By the time Kaunda reversed that decision he was already so unpopular he lost power. At least he left poverty prevalence levels at 56%. Shockingly, at the time IMF declared Ronald Damsom Siame Penza as the best performing Finance Minister poverty levels were at 86%! So who was misled? Our destiny is in our hands, there’s no one who is going to improve our situation except us. IMF is only worried about its partners getting their money. It’s like my wife lending you money to repay what you owe me, that’s how IMF operates

    • You are comparing IMF of yesterday to one of today…the IMF of yesterday would have handed you the $1.3 billion last year not today my friend there is something called responsible lending that Western taxpayers require of their govts.

    • The biggest borrowers from IMF are Africans, those bailouts are meant to help indebted nations avoid defaulting. IMF doesn’t lend you for growth, it’s only you who can grow your economy. I have never heard of anywhere where IMF prescribed solutions ever worked for the masses, it’s always creditors that benefit. IMF doesn’t belong to the donor community, it’s in the business of lending money at an interest, so what tax payers’ money are you talking about?

    • You wont find them on such topics including Yambayamba and senior citizen…they just send dull cadres like Oval Head to make a foooool of themselves!!

  6. The International Monetary Fund cut its 2019 economic growth projection for sub-Saharan Africa this year to 3.5%, from 3.8% set last October, hot on the heels of a downgrade by the World Bank earlier in the week.

    The new forecast reflects downward revisions for Angola and Nigeria with a softening in oil prices, the IMF said in a report published late on Tuesday.

    South Africa, the region’s most advanced economy, saw its growth trimmed to 1.2% on account of policy uncertainty in the economy due to upcoming elections in May.

    Read: IMF trims SA’s economic growth forecast to 1.2%

  7. A projection is not a reality gentlemen. Its just a guess work done by economists. So these whites they playing on our minds so that we get worried.

    • Using your logic, even the depleted foreign reserves in our treasury is just a projection of the imperialists. We actually have in excess of US$10 billion in the reserves! Dimwit what they are projecting is what we are already seeing. PF has failed to pay salaries to UNZA workers and also students on bursaries. Those are signals that we are on an economic decline.

  8. Kenya is growing at 6.3%, Rwanda at 7.8% ,Ethiopia at 8% and Tanzania at 6.7% and only Zambia with dunderhead leaders is getting poorer.But let’s focus on plastic bags coz that’s most important.

  9. Only in Zambia where a duty free brand new car costs USD 22,000 and USD 50,000 with duty paid! What was the rationale for this recent hike in duty on the so-called Luxury vehicles? Why not exempt brand new cars? In any case, paying duty that is more than the cost of the vehicle is immoral! Vehicles are no longer Luxuries! Let us review how we charge.

    • Did you just import a vehicle in the country blindly without doing the maths…in other countries you dont even pay duty on brand new hybrid vehicles but in Zambia you have empty tins making blanket decisions.

  10. Okay IMF would do you propose our leaders do? We already know we are in trouble, what we need the most is not a reminder that have tanked but solutions.

    • @ Dokowe put the wasting patient on low cost life support than waste resources on costly surgery that would not be beneficial to the already irreversible condition instead nurture the promising healthy looking onei for build up!

  11. The problem is not peculiar to Zambia but is global. Zambians learn to read what is trending internationally

    • Badala….it is grobo, we agree , but not all countries owe $17 billion and yet don’t produce anything by manufacture , not all countries owe $17 billion and don’t produce oil or gas or diamonds ……

    • Cut it out @Spaka, USA owes TRILLIONS and most of it to China…! Zambias’ debt is small fish in comparison to Western countries! In any case it is their borrowing and economic skulduggery that breaks world economies. What did you think the Credit Crunch that nearly brought the world to its feet was about? Rich countries allowing their citizens to over borrow on false financial products designed by nasty over educated bankers with no moral fibre, that what.
      Don’t obsess about Zambia, we are doing fine as a peaceful country that deals with its short comings inspite of opposition cadres and their politicians.

    • @spaka
      We have Copper, emeralds, diamonds, steel. We actually do manufacture and have industries. Don’t know what you are talking about. The problem in Zambia is ownership. We bring crooks/investors to leak our wealth out of our economy.

  12. Great, …now UPND, CAN STOP LYING ABOUT THE MIRACLES THEY WILL ACHIEVE FOR US IF ONLY, WE VOTE THEM IN. SECONDLY, MAYBE THEY CAN NOW GET IT, that ECONOMIC performance in any one country is linked to external international forces beyond a governments control. Now that Ministry Finance are aware of the projections, they should now note the strengths and weaknesses in their economic plan and make the changes to try and get around the advised 2.9 percent growth for next year from the 3.1 they planned. It’s not too far off. A warning in time is a hand in time. SO PLEASE MS MWANAKATWE, read our lips, LIMIT YOUR BORROWING, and keep your hands off our assets, no sell to pay debts.

    Corrupt thieving politicians will be chased down the road all the way to ACC. No tolerance. Wear the…

    Givd kids a summer water carrier design challenge to work on. In Africa we have been using Gourds to carry and drink water from. It’s natural and grown. Can we shape them, and give them handles to carry them. Cheap and zero manufacturing inputs. Loafer scrubbers from grown gourds. Can we deal the outside with some natural resin so they hold water?
    -Banana leaves are very versatile in Asian countries are used to wrap and cook food. Instead of paper cups can kids challenge themselves to create a wrap around that works as a water cup? – Sisal, can we knit and seal water cups?

  14. These meetigngs mean NOTHING to zambia , we should stay home and fix the economy , or atleast GO TO CHINA to strike some deals other than going for meetings u come back with NOTHING

  15. As long as we continue importing everything including toothpicks and Chinese Labour, Money will be leaving the country!

  16. Its true with growth projects reduced to 3.1 for Sub Sahara Africa from the 3.3 and signs that
    further revisions could impact,we need to up the revenues export agenda Currently we are not even in the Top 10 Countries of export to Ultra mega Important Countries like China and the US

    There are developments in the Global Financial Flows and regulations that would effect and affect the flow of money and costs including the general condition and rise in tariffs

    Thus said Zambia should be exporting to chine and rise to be in the Top Ten South-Africa currently tops with a share of 95% and Chad closes the list at 24% share

  17. Kwena katata lungu u have destroyed the country.wesebanya party yesu.I don’t know why the veep can’t advise you.U have women in cabinet who have no hearts for the country and future generation. cabipa kwena bane.Our party is no more coz of ba lungu’s lack of leadership

  18. Zambian Embassies, Missions abroad ‘bankrupt’, bleeding
    …..Recalled envoy Sikaneta fumes over poor funding Most Zambian High commissions and Embassies abroad have not received full funding from as far back as July last year. The worst hit are Malaysia, Turkey, India, Japan, Ethiopia, Malawi, South Africa, Germany, UK, Egypt, Kenya, UK, Belgium. They are literary surviving on a shoestring budget. The Zambian Embassy in Washington in the United States of America has also not been spared. “These Embassies listed have not been funded since last year and are barely surviving. We have become a laughing stock in the diplomatic community. Foreign Affairs Minister Joe Malanji keeps prodding diplomats to sacrifice more because the Treasury is empty. I felt embarrassed when one diplomat friend…

  19. IMF and World Bank and their local lackeys have been pontificating doom and gloom about Zambia the last 8 years. None of it has come around. It is simply not possible for the economic growth rate to drop below the population growth rate in an economy which has no policy shackles and enjoying unbridled peace and security. Even bad weather can’t cause that kind of damage.

    Those who can’t see the end of Western Hegemony are the ones who are doomed.

  20. We are all missing the points PF government were busying borrowing the money from China while the oppositions were restricted in prison premises. The Chinese knew that the money will be abused through embezzlement and they also knew how they would recover their loans; repossession of parastatal companies and leasing a large portion of mineral-rich land for 99 years. On the otherwise the World Bank, IMF and European Union are the ones making an economic prediction not the Chinese. How do you advise the PF government to be careful and change already the opposition have very little impact as the Judicial, the legislator and the executive are the same ethnic grouping (there is no distinction)

  21. countless meetings and trips abroad.what do we learn from these meetings and all these govt officials?- absolutely nothing!
    what a joke zambians….

  22. What negative economic growth?Poverty crime and deprivation.Going back to the time of Charles dickens?The jewels in the crown have lost their shine.Peter Carlos Hinds.

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