President Lungu
President Lungu

The UK based Economics Intelligence Unit says it expects the ruling Patriotic Front, led by the President, Edgar Lungu, to remain in power beyond 2021.

In its latest Country Report for Zambia dated June 12th 2019, the intelligence unit states that the baseline forecast remains that Mr. Lungu will win in 2021.

Although the report cited some challenges with the Zambian economy –many of which are not unique to this country, the Patriotic Font administration led by President Lungu has come up with appropriate and timely interventions.

The Report says in taking corrective measures such as the liquidation of KCM, President Lungu.

The Unit says Investor confidence is something that President Lungu has continued to pursue as evidenced by his commitment to ensuring that the mining sector continues to be under the ambit of the private sector.

The Economics Intelligence Unit says victory for President Lungu and the Patriotic Front is further assured in the absence of a credible opposition.

A key member of the Economist Group, the Economist Intelligence Unit is a specialist publisher for 60 years and has proved to be a reliable source of information on business developments, economic and political trends, government regulations and corporate practice worldwide.

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70 COMMENTS

  1. Ok ba EIU,this is based on your biased belief that someone pleasing western investors by failing to be firm on them is a good guy to rule the country. Please come to Zambia on the ground and get the opinion of potential voters,you will be shocked,just as Lungu and his PF are getting shocked in by- elections! Even the KCM thing is being mismanaged by PF cadres so if that is his expected selling point then sorry!!

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    • @Zambiaisours, this is not a biased belief like your comment. If you think that your HH will win in 2021, I tell you to just get ready for another defeat. ECL and the PF have my vote because there is no credible opposition.

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    • Kikikikukukukujakujakuja!
      Brace yourselves for insults from the UPNDEAD, mamamama!
      Anyway, that’s not new to some of us. The truth is that all your views are correct. It is printed all over the wall.
      But Zambia can be a suprise package at times.
      My wish is that the highly tribally charged character ought not rule over us. A vendetta and insult filled thick necked individual must not rule over us.
      But the elite people of this incredible land filled with milk and honey, blessed with too much arable land; filled with the fleshiness of stream, river and lake water; a land packed with peaceful and friendly people definitely deliver a plot1 prince or king, a leader of calibre come 2021.

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    • no names, no statistical figures, no analysis and information on how they arrived at the conclusion, there you are, do your judgment call on the authenticity of the report

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    • Please be reminded that the same “reliable” EIU had predicted a Rupiah win in 2011 citing a big rural vote and did not see a strong opposition to unseat the incumbent… Given the economy was stable and was high on investor confidence (with hind sight they were right on the economy) …Besides the language sounds a lot like Sunday C….especially when they say challenges not unique to Zambia and “timely” interventions ?????

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    • Why is no name mentioned by Sunday Chanda?

      Give us the name please we are here to fact check tgat EIU.

      Chanda will soon be sacked for misleading Lungu on this.

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    • Kwekwe!
      Sounds like a counter AC and Moody.

      If Moody or AC issues an article in the next 48hrs then external forces are playing us.

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    • Guys I have seen the report. It’s based on the governmen’s election strategy to rig and use violence if possible to get Lungu elected.

      So for now as things stand Lungu can win 2021 elections by the use dubious means like curtailing opposition freedoms like denying them to assemble, denying them to hold rallies ,unleashing violence to intimidate the opposition and through use of tested and tried rigging methods used before.

      This the only way PF Lungu can will.

      But the report paints a very grim picture of Zambia ‘ s economy under Lungu and his PF.

      This prediction is correct based on PF s unfair electioneering methods which are similar to Zim.’s ZANU-PF.

      It’s like predicting that ZANU-PF will stay in power for the next 10 years. A no brainer Why ? Because of its…

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    • It’s like predicting that ZANU-PF will stay in power for the next 10 years. A no brainer Why ? Because of its unchallenged election violence and rigging methods.

      Only massive revolutions will stop ZANU-PF and PF regimes from holding power for ever.

      Opposition to organise massive protests to oppose PF ‘s use of cruel election methods.

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    • I ask you guys in UPND to come to (i)realisation, (ii)swallow your pride & (iii) take a lesson from your well known member of UPND from Solwezi; Naomi Tetamashimba.

      Herewith below is an extraction of an article from Lusaka-times. Headlined as:


      HH PROMISES A NEW ELECTIONS STRATEGY AFTER ANOTHER DEFEAT

      Lusakatimes: 29 March 2019

      Opposition leader Hakainde Hichilema has promised that his party, the UPND will adopt a new elections strategy following the Kafue Mayoral election defeat.

      And a well known member of the UPND in Northwestern Province has welcomed Mr Hichilema’s call for a new election strategy.

      Cont.. on next page

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    • Cont..from 1.13

      Extract… !!!

      Naomi Tetamashimba said Mr Hichilema’s statement is an indication that all the concerns from the general membership have been heard.

      Congratulations PF at this point I don’t even want to talk about how you got it but the fact still remains that you were declared winners and congratulations.

      Now coming to my party UPND, this loss is painful because it is a loss that we allowed. ** The stealing excuse is old now and we cannot continue using that as an excuse. ** We lost because we allowed it,” she said.

      Ms. Tetamashimba said. ,”We are failing ourselves, we are failing my president and we are failing the people looking for hope. **The truth will always sound like hate to those that can’t stand it but at this stage I don’t care…

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    • One of the primary problem you guys in UPND have is your leadership suffers from Insanity</strong?

      It means doing the same (i) Strategy, (ii) Tactic, (iii) Approach…. And yet expecting different outcomes.

      If you put combine two baskets that contain 5 mangoes each, into one basket, they will become 10 mangoes in a basket. You will not ever end up with 15, 25, 30 mangoes. No matter how many times you swap the baskets.

      In arithmetic, 1 + 1 = 2. It cannot compute to 3, 5, 7, etc…. Never !!

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    • This is a biased report by the EIU which does not represent us the affected local ZAMBIANS by this drunk and staggering economy. We suspect Chanda to have influenced this fake report. But the truth will always prevail. Poor governance,no rule of law,corruption these are the smells of ZAMBIA nowadays because of poor leadership.What kind of economic survey did the EIU do?This EIU should learn to call a spade a spade, things are not okey here in Zambia politically and economically we don’t know where we are going.

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    • This is sheer propaganda. Who in their right mind would want to vote for this clueless corrupt guy who has presided over the most corrupt and mediocre administration in the history of Zambia? Yes, it’s true that the opposition is weak. But they can always unite and challenge this guy in 2021 to save the country from further damage. And before you accuse me of being a UPND cadre, I don’t believe HH would be any better either. He manifests some traits of tribalism and dictatorship within his party, and It would be terrible if he was to expand that to a national level. And he also seems to favor corporations over people. In short, anybody but clueless corrupt Lungu and tribalistic dictator HH. I wish General Miyanda would join one of the existing parties and challenge Lungu and HH in…

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    • … 2021. General Miyanda would make a great President in Zambia. Even Nevers Mumba would be better than Lungu and HH. Having corrupt Lungu as President for another five years scares the living daylights out of some of us, and it would be extremely tragic for Zambia. Because it would be another five years of corruption and mediocrity. And this time corruption and mediocrity on steroids.

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    • This report by Lusaka times is based on Pf own assertions. It’s not the original report of the EIU. The actual report says President Lungu will win not through popularity but by further erosion of the democratic space due to being un popular. In other ways through manipulation of the democratic and electoral processes. Infact the report says Pf will be increasingly unpopular leading the the elections. It further says if the opposition unites then the opposition will win. Let’s be careful of the Pf spin. The assumption is therefore correct to the extent that it’s based on the Pf manipulation of democracy. Zambia needs better leaders.

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    • In 2011 the EIU predicted an MMD victory as follows : –
      THE latest publication of the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) has maintained its prediction that President Rupiah Banda and the ruling MMD will win the 2011 general elections.

      The report, in the June 2011 issue obtained by the Times of Zambia yesterday, states that although the elections would be closely contested, an election victory for President Banda and the MMD remained the most likely outcome.

      It notes that although the next few months would be dominated by political squabbling, the MMD, under President Banda, would maintain stability of the nation.

      According to the report, the potential voters are disillusioned with the opposition’s enduring failure to offer a united front, and that the vote itself was expected to…

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    • Step 1 of election rigging: announcement of fake opinion poll from colonialist territory. Africans believe the colonialists more than themselves

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  2. Zambia is not part of UK so mind your business in UK you want to keep on stealing our minerals and resources through these vision less leaders of pf for get about 2021 its for Zambians 2021 is a gift for Zambians from God.

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    • Zambia cannot be part of the UK as we have too many kachemas habouring “foo in mouth” disease. Zambians have said NO several times to HH but he just wants to push it in like a rapist.

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    • Independent Observer @

      You couldn’t educate these losers any better by using their own cadre. The stubbornness and pride in UPND baffles me all the time. Its not only the leadership that suffers from insanity, its also bloggers who come here all the time. They cannot give us reason we should vote for HH. For them, HH is the best without valid grounds.

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  3. Despite economic hardship pf will still remain in power,the report says.My vote counts once only.

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  4. I have always said it and it has been confirmed by EIU that we have no credible opposition to give hope to the Zambians at the moment. As we wait for that to spring up one Edgar continues. HH is on record that he is , a tribalist and a white color thief and cant be trusted, Kambwili and Kalaba they are both inconsistent and very unpredictable. There is no wind of change in the political landscape of the country. The opposition is failing to explain to the Zambians how they are going to turn around economic fortunes of this country given a chance to rule apart only from insulting one Edgar and issuing disparaging remarks. The deteriorating economic conditions are global and Zambia is not an exception, one Edgar is working to mitigate the effects.

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    • When Zambians are tired of a leader or party, it is an automatically unanimous change. Not malicious by fictitious distabilizing underhand force.
      I feel you, loud and clear. I hear you warm and soothing.
      CKinsultor and HK are different models if the same van, PF.
      As for double h, the same sentiments orbit around him with a constant undetered quantum metric. It has not changed. Egomaniac will fix it alone mantra with tribalism and a properly uncleared allegation of satanism, a free masory tag that partially haunted the Mazoka 2001 run which also debuted in the Zambian constitution as a reminder that Zambia must remain a Christu Nation. Yangu, how can one circumvent such a dark cloud. Definitely not an economic lecture. I feel for double h sometimes.

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  5. The report is wrong, who ever conducted the study is probably as dull as Chagwa, people are tired of this chipante pante govt run by Kaponya`s and drunks with no direction. Dont they know this chap is the worst president in the world

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    • EIU is predicting that 2021 Elections in Zambia will not be Free, Fair, Transparent and Credible. EIU is correct becoz ECL and PF are determined to steal the Election and retain Power at all costs. ECL and PF know that they have lost popular support due to Corruption, Mismanagement and MisGovernance of the Zambian Economy. The only way for ECL and PF to retain Power is to rig the 2021 Election using Incumbency. ECL and PF have State Captured Concourt and the other Courts, ZPS, ECZ and the entire Public Service so rigging the 2021 Election is assured. The only problem is when Election Rigging fails. Thats the ECL and PF Risk. The writing is on the Wall.

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  6. I think you better give lungu ideas and a vision, the world is changing now he can win but only to be dragged out of power if he doesn’t deliver like Mugabe. Africa is changing its no longer predictable like you think it is, besides it’s too early to be talking about 2021 looking at the many challenges we facing now. Maybe next year Otherwise we don’t know what the situation will be like in 2021. Maybe the people will be more happy with pf or they may be more mad with them

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  7. Note the key aspects of this report-“…Although the report cited some challenges with the Zambian economy –many of which are not unique to this country, the Patriotic Font administration led by President Lungu has come up with appropriate and timely interventions.”

    “…victory for President Lungu and the Patriotic Front is further assured in the absence of a credible opposition.”

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    • Zambian Citizen, welcome back my guy. You have been missing in action. Always a pleasure to exchange ideas with you, even though we never agree.
      Winning elections is not everything my brother. Doing whats right is what matters. Thats my counsel to you.

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    • Picking up all the trash PF throws out and calling them saints is not doing the right thing for hh and that’s why he has lost elections since 2006. Handpicking leaders and suppressing democratic practices like conventions is not doing right for under. Telling your mps to abandon their constitutional duty by walking out of parliament is not just right. THAT’S WHY WE HAVE NO ALTERNATIVES IN ZAMBIA TODAY.

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  8. EIU predicted GDP of above 5% for Zambia , they also predicted inflation and exchange rates far below what they are now ……

    are we looking at the same country ??

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    • Understand English.

      Although the report cited some challenges with the Zambian economy –many of which are not unique to this country, …
      Can you digest that Mr “We told you so”.

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    • Yeah yeah

      Is it also “grobo” that a country can go through $17 billion and 2 years later be crawling back to the IMF and still have the highest unemployed and worst performance in currency and economy ???

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    • We must also ask the cader thorn ……

      Is it “grobbo” for a country to go through $ 17 billion and 2 years later find your self crawling back to the imf with you tails between your legs with the worst world perception of leadership corruption in our region ????

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  9. The key here is the absence of credible opposition. If the opposition parties in Zambia were not created out of bitterness, revenge, greed and selfishness things would have been different in 2021.

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  10. Congratulations Mr. Lungu. The EIU know that the largest block of voters in the country are dumb especially CB and Lusaka so I would have to agree with their prediction. Three cheers for five more years of the mighty (not) PF and his Excellency the dullness Mr. ECL!!

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    • If Dumb means afraid or knowledgeable about the alternative in double h with his baggage .

      With him it feels like when you vote for me, you will be s.u.c.king blood.

      Ignoring double h’s baggage is like being on a suicide mission. Yes jumping off a stealth without a parashoot or climbing mount Mount Everest without a supporting rope. Worse still attempting entrance into space without spacesuit. Not in a 1000 ways to die fashion, rather deliberately.

      I don’t know but I feel sorry for him mwe. You characters online don’t seem to be helping him. You’re such a let down. Soldier on mwandi double h, “Chichetekelofye, nechimbala chilocha”

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    • You may be right about ignoring HH’s baggage. See how people ignored Lungu’s baggage including theft from a widow and now we are suffering the consequences i.e. empty treasury, haywire exchange rate, low GDP, debt issues, worst performing bonds on the planet, ZNBC leased to the Chinese for the next 25 years, theft of K6 billion, etc. And when election time comes and JK belts out another tune, CB and Lusaka voters brains shut down and they again vote for the clueless humble one.

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  11. I also see the EIU prophesy come true against all odds!
    As long as the five time loser remains the preferred candidate, yes, there is a high chance of PF going through unless the opposition replace or bewitch the current front runners! Even in soccer, you can’t continue fielding the same poor strikers! You have to substitute them! Ba opposition, now is the time to go for Conventions and choose new leaders or forget about 2021! Don’t say you were not forewarned by EIU!

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  12. FACT : THE ECONOMY OF SOUTH AFRICA IS IN INTENSIVE CARE.

    SOCIAL MEDIA PREDICTION : JUJU MALEMA OF OPPOSITION EFF WOULD BE EITHER OFFICIAL OPPOSITION IN PARLIAMENT OR FORM GOVERNMENT.

    ELECTION RESULTS! … CYRIL RAMAPHOSA OF ANC IS RE-ELECTED.

    DON’T TELL THEM

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  13. zambians are no longer fooled by this kind or rubbish, come and get the truth for yourself so that you will understand how zambians feel about this pfools full of corrupt and thieves. dont waste people s time .look even young people who are in good jobs earning good money have chosen to steal and get out of the country from this corrupt leadership. people are suffering dont fool them.

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  14. Say EIU is right, what are you going to about it?
    EIU has not given criteria used in predicting ECL will win the 2021 presidential elections; that is if he stands which is another matter altogether.
    Truth is current opposition parties don’t have the necessary cash to bankroll and catapult them to plot 1, even with everything in their favor, they will screw another’s chance of getting to plot 1, and others will self screw as they did in 2016.
    Zambian voters are simple minded, but will do a donche kubeba when enough is enough for them.

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  15. We all know its so obvious ECL and the PF will win 2021. This is the report the UPND don’t want to see. I am not politically aligned with any party but even i know PF will win. UPND better re-strategize u cant be doing the same things over and over and expecting things to change. We have no opposition in this current and our current government is also useless.

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  16. Are these not the same people who miscalculated their own Brexit that has given them hell to handle?

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  17. EIU, Who are you? The Bible tells me WHO’S REPORT WILL YOU BELIEVE? …… THE ZAMBIAN REPORT THAT ZAMBIAN PEOPLE SUFFERING AND WILL MAKE A DECISION 2021. SO GUYS CHILL N RELAX. WE DONT BELIEVE THAT FALSE REPORTING

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    • Let him continue beyond 2021 he see how we Zambian are hard we can survive any conditions

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  18. The KCM Liquidation could actually backfire on ECL and the Zambian Economy. The Govt has failed to follow Legal Liquidation Procedures and have not complied with the KCM Shareholders Agreement. This will be problematic for ECL in an International Arbitration Court. ECL will not be able to manipulate the International Arbitrator the way he compromises Zambian Judges. The Result is that Vedanta will win the KCM Legal Battle and will be paid Damages and Compensation. These Court Battles will have adverse effects on investor confidence in Zambia and Foreign Exchange Earnings from the Mining Sector will decline as a result of these Court Cases. The writing is on the Wall.

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  19. It would be as shocking as it was in 2011 when zambians voted MMD out, despite having MMD having had the best economic management team the country have ever had. Zambians chose ignorants. Zambians can still do it again in 2021. On the other hand, There might be higher voter apathy on account of the reason advanced in second last paragraph. This might give lungu some votes. In the meantime, MMD court case has been in the Zambian courts for 4 years. 4 yrs just to determine whether Mutati’s faction is legal. For 4 yrs MMD cannot reorganise and participate in politics. This plan has work out well.

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  20. unless they are saying the economic intelligence unit will come from the uk and vote in 2021 elections to add vote to the pf otherwise mr lungu will be embarrassed in 2021 trust zambians are not stupid.

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  21. unless they are saying the economic intelligence unit will come from the uk and vote in 2021 elections to add votes to the pf otherwise mr lungu will be embarrassed in 2021 trust zambians are not stupid.

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  22. THIS IS FROM PF SPINNERS. IGNORE IT. HOW CAN YOU PREDICT WHAT WILL HAPPEN 30 MONTHS FROM NOW.

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  23. What many Zambians in opposition fail to understand is majority voters in this country hate HH with a passion especially in bemba and nyanja speaking areas.So EIU is 100% right.There is no wind of change in Zambia.Next month,more by elections are coming up at ward level about 5 wards in known PF strongholds and the Katuba one.Expect PF to win in those wards in its strongholds while UPND would win too in lenje area of Katuba.Regional voting for political parties is what has killed HH’s chances of entering state house!!

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  24. This was written by Sunday Chanda to impress ECL shortly after Amos “resigned”. He was hoping to be appointed to take over from Amos Chanda, too bad someone least expected was appointed. This write up was still in the queue and only reached the editors after the fact. Try another write up Sunday!!

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  25. Well, we will wait for that time then…we still have a long way to go so we can’t say much

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  26. PF wamuyaya? God forbid! But anyway better option than Trib.al Hacks and his trib.als.

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  27. The EIU report appears to be double edged. The PF may be celebrating that a neutral entity has produced a report that favors it. Learn to think deeply! The myopic PF is failing to realize that this report is warning potential investors who are interested in investing in Zambia but fear PF unstable tax regime not invest as chances that they will retain power are high. THIS REPORT HAS HIGH POTENTIAL TO SCARE INVESTORS FROM ZAMBIA. THE PF GOVT IS KNOWN IN HIGH BUSINESS CIRCLES AS VERY BAD IN BUSINESS TERMS ESPECIALLY THE UNSTABLE TAXATION.

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