Monday, June 24, 2024

Why Lungu will win another term


By Dr. Joze Manda

• Voters in 2016 liked Lungu’s promise to stem the tide of massive infrastructure development.*

• Unless the combined opposition (which is NOT most likely to happen) can put up ONE credible candidate willing to deliver a similar agenda, they have already lost.

Zambian must not put too much stock in all those questionable predictions you’re hearing about Zambia’s elections in 2021 on social media and some hostile media houses who are paid to promote the agenda of known imperialists. Anyone saying that the opposition will win outrightly in 2021 without a clear analysis of the current political situation are probably just trying to get your attention and pre brainwash you so as to programme your brains to not accept their lose in 2021.

And probably they succeeding. We’ve all fallen for headlines and clickbait proclaiming foreknowledge of events. We do it for sports and just about any other outcome that cannot be foreseen and that goes for elections too and particularly in a high-stakes, pivotal cycle such as we will be faced with in 2021.

Zambia’s current challenges are global economic trends and climate change based and the quicker we get the grip of it all, the better we will understand the political quagmire we find ourselves in. It is also easy to predict that with a little more works on the economy, Edgar Lungu will easily win the 2021 elections because the focus of the opposition has been to capitalize on the challenges our country is facing, to the dismay of many citizens.

The connection between economics and politics is clearly visible. Economic production sustains human life which, for most people, is the most important concern in life. The prestige of a democratic government, its rise and fall, usually depend on its economic performance and that is way Edgar Lungu has put his effort and that of his government in overdrive to cartel the challenges we are facing as can be seen with his commitment pledges as 2020 begins. It is a new year and new pledges have been made and we will see massive economic changes in the positive within the next six months.

The steps taken by Lungu’s government to make the citizens the beneficiaries of the gold recently discovered will inspire the citizens to work and support Lungu’s efforts to easy the pain citizens are facing and this will also help create a health economic position for our country.

The reported discovery oil in Southern province and the plans by government to explore every inch of it to benefit the citizens, will also see a huge cash inflow in billions of dollars which will help easy the hostile global economic challenge that has affected our economy so drastically.

As things stand, it is easy to to conclude that Lungu will win the 2021 elections because the electoral map of 2021 closely resembles that of 2016 with most votes in about six provinces going to the the PF. In Lusaka and the copperbelt, the PF will also win with a slight majority in the face of the economic decline, but will also have a huge advantage and space to tap in, from the new voters who will be registered between now and then of which the majority are the youth who resonate with PF on many lines.

The main opposition, UPND is still fatally divided over outdated ideologies and leadership wrangles, proving that they haven’t yet learned the lessons of its 2016 defeat. They have a leader who selfishly holds on to three TOP party positions of – President, Vice president – Administration and Vice President – Politics. His paranoia of past loses has dealt him a huge psychological blow which in essence has turned him into an authoritarian dictator or a small god who suffer from inferiority complex.

It is also most troubling to UPND, who know they have nothing and no one to offer Zambians to beat Lungu. It is easy to see what is really going on here. UPND have weaponized the economic challenges and are using it as a political tool against an opponent they cannot beat.

Dr. Joze Manda is Political Analyst based in Lusaka.


  1. Joze Manda is nothing more than a bootlicker seeking employment. Political analyst my rear! The people have had enough.

    • Joselyn Grave reminds me one of Saddam’s lieutenants CHEMICAL ALI, even when Saddam was busy looking for rat hole to hide in, chemical Ali kept singing that his Iraqi soldiers was winning.

  2. …. It is also easy to predict that with a little more works on the economy, Edgar Lungu will easily win the 2021 elections because the focus of the opposition has been to capitalize on the challenges our country is facing, to the dismay of many citizens….
    Thats the killer statement! You cant win a general election by focusing and celebrating the challenges a country is facing because once those are tackled, you have no message to the citizens and you can suddenly switch to other reasons why you the option. Citizens are looking for alternatives with assurances, which unfortunately the opposition doesnt have other than hoping and speculating. It doesn’twork like that anymore.

  3. Dr Joze, I almost thought that you are a comedian going by your name. You are far from the harsh reality that has griped the majority of Zambians both PF and the opposition. Zambians are suffering. They have said that enough is enough.

    Go to any compound, the complaint is the same. Jump on a bus or taxi, the complaint is the same. In the bars, the complaint is the same, in Markets, at Churches, schools even grave sites…

    The same way Zambians liked PF naturally, is the same way they have hated PF naturally.

    Zambians have resolved to kick PF out come 2021. It will be don’t kubeba…PF will run the most expensive campaign, but they will fall to UPNDC.

    HH is the incoming President whether you like or loath it….Put this in your corrupt, fake DR!!

  4. These scoundrels have caused enough misery to the Zambian people already.
    This nonsense of an article is annoying to say the least.

  5. The only way Lungu would win is by rigging the votes like he did last time. Every Zambian I know is fade up of his stealing drunkedness and lies.
    The man has no plans to improve the lives of suffering Zambians he admitted it himself loud and clear.

    • Vote wisely u have been,PFoools is a party of thieves and dander heads include the worst president on earth, the only leader without a vision in the whole world, the above analysis is hog wash by a so called PFoools DR who lives in the same world as their humble theiving leader who lost touch with the people long ago

  6. This is the most myopic political analysis l have ever read,especially so by someone who claims to be a “Dr”. The writer is either a partisan pf political cadre or paid “analysit” who seems to be out of touch with the current massive suffering of the people due to economic hardships.

    Just to remind this “Dr”:
    The endemic corruption of the PF…we can call it open stealing with some politicians even boasting on national television is not a natural event. All those so called infrastructure programs are just a smokescreen to steal more money.

    The unending power cuts are a result of poor planning ( unless you are an ***** to believe it’s due to water levels ). Borrowed billions should have been used long ago to fix this capacity issues but most of it was stolen….by the PF…

  7. The so-called doctor might perhaps better express himself in his mother-tongue. Or is it that he has a dislocated mindset?

  8. The first point is wrong, people voted against HH because he was Tonga, he sold the mines, and he was a free Manson. There was no any promise from PF and ECL which convinced anyone to vote, period.

  9. They will continue voting against him for the same reasons,nothing has changed ask Tayali, he has added something to the above.

  10. And if he rigs , your walkout MPs and their HH will run to the constitution court .And there they will find Bill 10 waiting for them.

  11. In English to stem the tide means to slow down the increase of something or to break the acceleration. Dr. Manda both your poor conceptual framework of ideas and your very bogus first sentence make your entire article sound like one not written by one with a philosophy doctorate. I can safely say that whoever conferred that ph.d upon you did a damn lousy job.

  12. So so so poorly analysed and so very basic reasons given.

    His talking of oil and gold discoveries like we are cooking Nshima in your kitchen that can be served in 30 mins. Bwana forget oil and gold we will never become rich digging those. We can only become rich with strategy, plan and Vision which this current Government don’t have. It’s that simple. For poor people the vote is in the food and it’s that food the people are not getting enough of right now… so PF is in trouble.

    Let’s talk about Nshima not Oil and Gold. Priority is FOOD lets go and Re Discover Agriculture and you will have my Vote.

  13. Unfortunately another so called analyst with his head buried in the sand. Maybe he should have taken a poll sample from his friends and family then he might have gotten to know the reality on the ground.

  14. Hehehehe……..

    Already counting the barrels of oil per day Zambia till produce ????

    There is no oil , wake up , and build your factories

  15. The reported discovery oil in Southern province and the plans by government to explore every inch of it to benefit the citizens, will also see a huge cash inflow in billions of dollars which will help easy the hostile global economic challenge that has affected our economy so drastically.

    When was oil discovery confirmed? How many oil discoveries have we announced before? I remember Mwanawasa mentioning one of them. We are still waiting

  16. That in deed will be the case because Zambians are logical orderly beings possessing the love for peace and respectful procession in the system of government.

    It’s one thing to say things aren’t great right now economically, but that does not amount to a political dissatisfaction. It’s not the excellent PF political process that’s at fault, therefore a change to a new political party is not a solution.

    One thing that’s not being understood by Opposition, especially UPND; is that they do not have the Economic solutions to sort out an economy affected by global changes which are dependant on a global climate. In fact changing govt in this climate is suicide because of the disruptive upheaval a new inexperienced ruling party would bring.

  17. It’s important to drive the message of global economic impacts rather than charismatic party leadership desirability which is the UPND modus operandi. People can be educated to understand the global economic environments and how that affects them economically thereby matching what they percieve in the supermarkets, bus, petrol inflation hiked cost of living.

    As a fine example, look at the UK 2019 election! Technically this was Labour Party’s election but they lost because they missed the fact that if you explain to the people what the stakes are they will use strategic voting to get to what they are emotive about. Just relaying on charisma of leadership is not enough. HH. has got nothing for the people simply because the process to an improved economic climate is not in his…

  18. HH has got nothing for the people simply because the process to an improved economic climate is not in his or other oppositions hand. Tiyende Pamodzi with one heart Zambia is our motto since UNIP days. Divisive tribalism is not our Clarion call ever.

  19. Joze manda pls read , The only way PF and Lungu can win the Election 2021 is by rigging the Election, and i´m sure they will, but one thing shall you know, if Lungu say he have won, will the people of Zambia take him to court, and we the Zambian people will have AU , EU and the USA (African Union & European Union) to back us up, just like they did in Gambia. We are tired of PF and Lungu, we are tired of all the corruption. I know that Lungu gonna try and totally empty the Bank of Zambia from all the money and gold, but Zambian will rise again as soon PF and Lungu goes to trial for corruption. Mark my words, NO TOO CORRUPTION, FREE ZAMBIA

  20. Excellent piece. I will also play a role, like I always do, to ensure that upnd are walloped and secure another pf term. Kz

  21. Well I almost want to disagree with the writer, but unfortunately what he is saying is not far from the truth.Why do I say so, I agree that we are living in hard times and we all need a way out. I personally feel a change of leadership is quite a necessity, but the problem we have is this….Our opposition parties aren’t not offering enough assurance to warrant zambians to decide to vote out the pf from office.
    Using the current problems as a platform to try and convince the humble electorates, isn’t good enough.What happens if suddenly there is a turnaround in the economy, and the government says the explanation for the turn around is as a result of certain completed projects…This will be a big blow to them.So unless the opposition finds a better way to endear themselves with the…

  22. When a political analyst has given their view, maturity is not to insult or belittle but to critique constructively. We cheapen or respect ourselves by the way we carry ourselves on social media. The level of mentality can sometimes be gauged by the way people respond to views

  23. It is a fact that we do not have creditable opposition parties in Zambia. When you look at the caliber of the opposition and how they go about with their business of Politics, you would clearly see that these opposition Parties do not know what they are doing. They surely do not have a tangible plan on how they would rule Zambia in a better way than the PF is doing. What do they have to offer to the Zambian people and how? No one talks about these. They are only good at pointing fingers at issues that cannot and will never win them elections. In short the opposition is to blame, as they can’t get together. As the situation is there is no need of even holding elections in Zambia as the opposition is very, very weak and have no plans at all. It is about talk, talk, talk and talk. They are…

  24. Look man, the people are not going to eat new roads and new airports. That gimmick will not work this time around. We have seen how Eurobond has been squandered, seen loadshedding, seen K136 mealie meal, expensive private jet for mukula 1, we have seen alleged drug lords in state house, we have seen over 30 000 ghost workers on government payrol, seen $41 milliion lost in fire trucks, andthe list of evil from PF is endless. We have alas not seen more money in our pockets. We are tired of PF.

  25. This analysts must be a child and doesn’t know Zambians. We are not Uganda or South Africa with the same party in power ever since. Zambians introduced multiparty and are know to change frequently. They love too hard and also will hate you in a brink of an eye. Can the analysts tell us why PF lost a ward in there so called stronghold also in luanshya isn’t that a sign that things are fluid. FYI lungu won because he had all state machinery at his disposal and people knew little of him, and they thought he was going to finish what sata started. The man has changed chasing those who helped him. don’t you see how pf is desperately trying to get kambwili back

  26. Lukanga the opposition is there, if not for them you would have had the useless bill 10. Just like jesus was here on earth and still doubted he was the promised son of God even so. You mistaken belief that the opposition offers nothing is because you chose to ignore it. Someone promised free education you declined that, see how students are getting kicked out and failing to pay exam fee. You chose a lawyer over an economist see how bad the economy is. somethings are common sense which most ignore to use. You can’t expect water out of a dry well, dig a new well and you’ll have water

  27. When GBVM pulls the numbers he contributed to the deads away, reality will surely dawn.
    Kulibe Dzabwino for double h.
    Let live in denial.

  28. Yaba, so called Dr, you make the PhD holdership cringe ba Manda. How can you right such trivial nonsense? Provide facts and figures for people to ponder in future!

  29. think tink think tink very true ECL is wining 2021 elections with a big margin. I wonder why some people are even supporting this gay,freemanson person who will never bring development to Zambia but he will busy paying back Zambian money to gay associations.Tel me 5 points on how he is going to develop this country.All is saying is to arrest those in power when he comes into power, is that easy? As he got the facts that they have stolen mmmmmmm share waste of time cheap politics.zambians wake up and don’t be cheated.The issues we are going through is globaly like climate change.

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