By Dr. Joze Manda
The Parliamentary by-election race in Chilubi district has tightened significantly over the past one week and PF candidate Francis Mulenga Fube is most likely to win the elections set for February 13th despite the PF losing some support amid widespread anger over corruption allegation, economical challenges, and high unemployment.
Pollsters put the PF well ahead of its nearest rivals the main opposition UPND, who are seating at only 20%.
The margin of victory of 65% for PF predicted by pollsters is large enough for Fube to win.
The PF’s lead, despite its reduced margin because of voter apathy, means the party will be mathematically assured of more than 50 percent of votes that will be cast during the by-election, given the uncertainties inherent to forecasting – an outcome of 50% of the votes is guaranteed without any doubt which also means PF will definitely retain their seat.
The confidence and the popularity of the PF candidate has added more advantage to the PF chance of an absolute victory. In his own words, the ruling PF Chilubi parliamentary candidate Mulenga Fube said a few weeks ago that the only thing that concerned him about the Chilubi by-election was the margin with which he will win the election. He said,
“I have won already; I am just working on the margins. It just has to be wider.”
It is also important to acknowledge and accept that PF has lost some support amid widespread anger over corruption allegation, economical challenges, and high unemployment but we must also always remember that the connection between economics and politics is clearly visible. Economic production sustains human life which, for most people, is the most important concern in life.
The prestige of a democratic government, its rise, and fall, usually depend on its economic performance and that is way Edgar Lungu has put his effort and that of his government in overdrive to cartel the challenges we are facing as can be seen with his commitment pledges as 2020 begins.
The predicated Chilubi victory is also an indicator of how we expect the trend to continue of PF winning going through into 2021 and which will culminate into the PF victory during the 2021 general elections.
While Lungu’s PF government is working on its challenges and continue to drive its infrastructure development agenda, the largest opposition, UPND has chosen to bury its head in the sand and refuses to offer genuine solutions, also believes the failures of PF will automatically push them into the ruling party, an unfortunate way to look at things.
UPND’s misfortune is to spend 80% of its available campaign time in urban areas where it has some good numbers than the rural areas where they lack a convincing support base, to the advantage of PF.
Unfortunately, it is the rural areas that comprise the majority; and so, successive ruling parties have played this demography to their advantage over the years.
Dr. Joze Manda is a Political Analyst based in Lusaka.
There are more people in flip flops (amatulopiko) than those on the California Beaches, but their attire is not beach like. Why? Bafwile either they have no shoes or they love the beaches.
Kwena uyu Dr chiwelewele. Just take back the charms imwe and we’ll see if you will win. Yes in the past it was a foregone conclusion because of ubuloshi bwenu ba mambala imwe. Take back those charms.
Listening to recycled lies by politicians. You look at the ‘hopeful’ people in the picture being addressed begging for their votes and ones’ heart gets a sinking feeling for you see a forgotten and information denied citizens doomed to just being a constituency number! Here are people whose usefulness is elections tally! Fifty plus years post independence brother’s sisters and other relatives still look like this! So Chilubi is one big village in some remote corner surrounded with water and maybe thats why many are wearing flip flops as they know not when tragedy that could flood the land could hit! Not easy to swim wearing shoes!
Even if UPND spend 80% making noise in urban areas,people in urban areas e,g Lusaka knows HH and his character very well.people still love PF than UPND only past year poor rainfall caused drought in most parts of the country and hunger loomed due to poor yields on maize grains and load shedding issue also affected the running of micro economy in urban setup.however government officials were available to explain to people causes and mitigation measures.
People want government to improve standards of living by ensuring that a common Zambian affords to eat nsima and able to have their business run .Not false propaganda HH is preaching on social media forgetting that only 0.7 % have daily access to social media information
Absolute sheet! It is Hamble who decides whether or not to put a road or even an ambulance in Chilubi, who is Fube or indeed who is Chilufya in a party which boasts of only one intelligent person in its leadership?
By the way even in UPND there is only one intelligent person in its leadership, Trible HH the rest are mates for the intelligent one to step on.
Such are Zambian politics and yet we spend billions of kwacha doing elections and by elections pretending to be a democratic and christian nation.
Absolute sheet! It is Hamble who decides whether or not to put a road or even an ambulance in Chilubi, who is Fube or indeed who is Chilufya in a party which boasts of only one intelligent person in its leadership?
By the way even in UPND there is only one intelligent person in its leadership, Trible HH the rest are mats for the intelligent one to step on.
Such are Zambian politics and yet we spend billions of kwacha doing elections and by elections pretending to be a democratic and christian nation.
Good morning z
I am on the ground and can assure you that victory is certain. I did not have to do much work on this by election as it is a walk over with success guaranteed. We have already bagged this one. It is the easiest job I have ever done. I will now continue working on the 2021 election strategy. I can leave chilubi to my subordinate. Kz
By-election money could be used to build a cold storage and market for the industrious Zambians of Chilubi Island. Don’t force people to vote in the rain. This is why I dislike both the UPND and the PF. Also that money could be used to start initiatives for industry and farming for them when the fish are repopulating. Abash By-elections. A money grabber for the ECZ and elite.
@nzelu democracy is not cheap. If you think democracy is too expensive then try dictatorship for a week and tell me. Kz
We lived under a dictatorship with president Kaunda. As much as it hurts saying it, his rule had more functionality than now. Only time Zambia saw the best thrust was during Mwanawasa; whose greatest weakness was selling of some of our mines to the crooks Vedanta. President Lungu would do well to rid himself of two thirds of his ministers. Then press for Bill ten to add term limits to MPs. Also to rid the nation of By-elections. A siphon of the little liquidity the treasury now entails. Now that is the Democracy Zambians dream of. Not yearly By-elections. Zambians are tired of PF and UPND in this regard.
Hold on there, you cannot move goal posts. Democracy is expensive, but it allows for good laws to be written. Like abolishing By-elections. Plus trimming the fat that is ineffective ministers. Two thirds of Zambia’s Ministers and MPs are not worth their weight in Salt. Both the ruling opposition and independents. Read my comment again. We do not need midsession elections that deplete the treasury needlessly.
So you want your father to take over as mp? Don’t you realise that an election is the only way to fairly pick the best candidate and to allow for the constituents to review their choices? So what criteria are you proposing in the event of death of a sitting mp?
Lusaka Times my comments are not posting. I had a very good reply to mister kz above.
Lusaka Times my comments are not posting. I had a very good reply to mister kz above.
Kaizar, no. I want which ever party won that seat, to have intra-party elections and replace the retiring MP with a smart person within their structures. That way Zambia does not pay for irrelevant elections. Let the parties foot the bill and Zambians benefit from true democracy.
@KZ congratulations on this doctors victory. With all the taxpayers mealie bags and Taxpayers money distributed your victory is most certain.
It should concern PF that they have to do so much heavy lifting in their stronghold.
Of course what do you expect under the prevailing uneven playing field, the PF proponent with full access to campaign resources against opponents who have been denied basic campaign resources
Why nobody cares for small depositors who have not been paid their money by Lawrence Sikutea of Madison Asset Management?
He is neither paying interest nor returning our money.
Is Madison group ok?
@Nzelu you must be an output of good education system. You exhibit great analytical skills. I believe you.
Meanwhile Dr Chilufya is there handing out bundles of cash to Chilubi residents, and you wonder why a $20million hospital costs $50 million in Zambia
Too early to be declaring victory now anything can change. Don’t be so confident that your bwanga or bribes are going to work. Those people can vote for someone else and you’re going to get a rude awakening. Someone also needs to tell pf all this bribery they’re doing is not going to work in 2021.how are you going to manage bribing the whole country next year which dwindling funds
@ nzelu so if it just so happens that each subsequent mp of a specific area dies over a period of 100 years then it is ok for one party to continue ruling at the expense of the constituents deciding who is best to rule them? Do you see how silly your suggestions sound? Kz
@ KZ and Nzelu, I agree with Nzelu that intraparty elections are the way to replace an MP. They do that in Australia, the Nordic countries and the UK, consider how May, and Boris became Prime Minister.
to adreess KZ last comment, the idea of replacing an MP intraprty is to let the apppointed MP rule for the remainder of the term, not another 5 years, the person in chilubi will serve till next year’s general election. It makes sense to avoid a by election and allow the PF to choose someone to finish the term that the party was given. The voters decide their next leader after that term is over. Is this still silly?
@ KZ and Nzelu, I agree with Nzelu that intraparty elections are the way to replace an MP. They do that in Australia, the Nordic countries and the UK, consider how May, and Boris became Prime Minister.
to adreess KZ last comment, the idea of replacing an MP intraprty is to let the apppointed MP rule for the remainder of the term, not another 5 years, the person in chilubi will serve till next year’s general election. It makes sense to avoid a by election and allow the PF to choose someone to finish the term that the party was given. The voters decide their next leader after that term is over. Is this still silly?
yes
Give us the like/hate comment facility that you Lusaka Times have disengaged from posts!
@Kaizar. your comments in default mode. Digest carefully the progressive suggestions at @Nzelu, @Spiderly Existence.
Ever since @KZ took control of LT. Comments and bloggers are getting blocked.
I can’t believe ba LT are now under state capture. This will hurt the trust we have in this publication. It is heading the direction of the Daily Nation.
inflation rate is at 15.4%
For me this is the only problem i have with UPND. I feel these guys are not an alternative to PF. They are a bunch of jokers. They keep calling President Lungu a no vision man and yet they dont have one themselves. I dont want another dissapointment. Zambians are just fatigued and think this is the solution. I very much doubt.