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Alba Iulia
Thursday, September 24, 2020

What is the real opportunity cost of the $13 million Kafue Flyover Bridge?

Columns Feature Column What is the real opportunity cost of the $13 million Kafue Flyover...

By Anthony Bwalya – UPND Member

Today is the day the Patriotic Front (PF) regime and President Edgar Lungu will once again parade the media and play and dance to the gallery as they commission the Kafue Flyover decongestion project.

The project has been built with $13m of debt money from India via EXIM Bank of India, and built by an Indian contractor – AFCON. Please note that because of the structure of implementation of the project, 75% – 80% of the project amount never actually came to Zambia, while Zambians will still be expected to pay around 10% of US dollar driven interest on the original loan amount.

So, we have the flyover yes, but what inherent economic value has the flyover generated which will generate $15m over the next 5 – 10 years for example to be able to pay back the loan in respect of this project?

For a UPND administration, $13m would have been enough money to recapitalize MULUNGUSHI TEXTILES, creating around 4,000 direct jobs, with another 1,000 indirect jobs through textile supply chain linkages such a cotton outgrower schemes, transport and logistics.

From the direct jobs alone, at our current personal taxation reforms proposals, that is $2.5m in tax revenues per annum for the country; while if we extend the revenue gains across the entire textile supply chain, the value tops $5m in tax receipts per annum.

With just Six (6) years of functional operation of a recapitalized MULUNGUSHI TEXTILES, a UPND administration would generate enough tax revenues to be able to not only repay the initial $13m loan amount, but also generate enough cash internally to build the equivalence of the Kafue Flyover.

For the PF regime, we Zambians will only have the flyover to look at while looking for money to maintain it – zero actual economic value.

But while this is going on, do Zambians know that some high ranking elected politicians in the PF are having luxurious lodges being built for them in our national parks using kickbacks money from infrastructure projects such as this one, although not exactly this particular one.

Wake up my people.

Tell your neighbor and ask your neighbor to tell their neighbor.

2021 is the year of Independence.

34 COMMENTS

  1. Mr Anthony, please address the challenge of secondhand clothing. We all know how the USA threatened unspecified actions against African countries that wanted to ban secondhand clothing to protect and kickstart their textiles industries. Are you able to withstand this without activating those threatened sanctions? Is there anything we can learn from Rwanda that remained among those if not the only one that stood up against the USA threats? Let’s reduce on the politics and deal with systemic issues here. PF has failed tremendously in a lot of areas, no doubt, but we will not have more of the same going forward.

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  2. Congratulations are in order , decongestion of Lusaka will save money in waisted fuel time sitting on traffic and increased time working.

    On the mafs, iwe Anthony , PF don’t understand such logic…….talk about contracts to clean markets may be you will get their attention…

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    • Not wealthy commenting on. This is pure childish talk. This usually happen when you look at all thing through a political eye. You can notice the economic importance of the Lusaka decongestion project honestly. Please remove the veil which is clouding you thinking process no matter what side of the political divide you are. Every one here knows that from unip to pf regime there have over 19 recapitalization for mulugushi textile with huge sums of money but nothing has come out. Mulungushi has been a cash cow and successful government have used it to suck money from the state and for political gain in central province and upnd wants to sing the same all song about a old and tired factory what a she . if they have rain out of new ideas let than hire some think tanks to counter the PF…

  3. Kalok

    You can can a viable textile industry and still have salaula, GRZ uniforms and school uniforms and work uniforms are not from salaula……those cost zambia millions pa.

    And chitenges are not salaula….you have to impose high import duty on them to make the local ones attractive….

    As western nations have found out , the economy is better of having employed people paying tax , be it in a government subsidised industry , then to have imports because they are cheaper together unemployed……..even if those industries don’t make a profit, and just break even, the profit is in the employment and tax contributions with the social aspects employment brings to families …

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  4. $13 Million from EXIM India to a Contractor in India means little trickle effect on the Zambian Economy. This is the most careless way to borrow. Meanwhile, our shrinking Economy is expected to pay with interest? How much money will this Flyover bridge generate to help with loan repayment?
    Ironically, today is supposed to be Farmers day, and all the farmers get is a Flyover bridge? Why did they cancel activities for this day if people could still be allowed to get overcrowded around an economically worthless bridge? What can be worse timing than this?

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  5. I thought HH had a better understanding on economics? Mourning Mulungushi textiles is like wishing Livingstone FIAT assembly, Tata buses, and Chipata bicycle assembly were back. Good job PF we need infrastructure.

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  6. Miles mulenga go and ask your f.o.o.l.i.s.h father and demigod HH. I don’t comment on nonsensical articles written by empty tins like this circumcised baboon hanthony habwalya

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  7. @Spaka

    You are spot on, most people dont understand this and wonder why the USA and China are at loggerheads

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  8. It’s an article wealthy reading and debate on Ba Antony. On face value yes that could have bin possible spending that money to revamp mulungushi and many others But I guess ‘Chilamuntu netalanta lwakwe’
    PF and infrastructure Yes. on Sound economic policies, UPND definitely Nails it but only then all this well researched argument remain a wish until Zambians grant UPND that torch to lead. When? Only God knows

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  9. There is no sense in spending that kind of money of moving a bottleneck from one spot of the road to another. Also help me understand why it cost $13M to put a pile of compacted gravel resurfaced with tar? That flyover is not morden a suspended road which is aesthetically better looking and saves space. $13M for stone age kind of road. Ba PF chi pante pante.

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  10. Fly over Makeni only to be stuck a few metres away as you hit Down Town into either Lumumba road or Kafue roundabout.

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  11. As they add on potential sonta, as usual kwindis are twii twii twyii political witch hunting.
    !d!o+$ think development comes cheap.
    You will die with goiterz of hatred.
    Selapa konto iwe.
    Go on with the mulungushi textile laughable hogwash and turn youths to cotton farmers. Kikikikikikijukija perhaps in your case, you would also tell youths to build bridges.
    Hanthony’z political inferences makes me laugh. Pure u5 reasoning. Kids wonder why we call these deads kindergarten.

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    • On one occasion, so it was narrated, Stalin called for a live chicken.

      Forcefully clutching the chicken in one hand, with the other he began to systematically pluck out its feathers. As the chicken struggled in vain to escape, he continued with the painful denuding until the bird was completely stripped.

      “Now you watch,” Stalin said as he placed the chicken on the floor and walked away with some bread crumbs in his hand. Incredibly, the fear-crazed chicken hobbled toward him and clung to the legs of his trousers.

      Stalin threw a handful of grain to the bird, and it began to follow him around the room, he turned to his dumbfounded colleagues and said quietly, “This is the way to rule the people. Did you see how that chicken followed me for food, even though I had caused it such…

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    • Looks like you are one the cadres who were shouting commander, boss boss, chasing the presidential motorcade, putting on desert storm boots thinking muli baume Sana ? Yet you are just a used, abused and misused featherless chicken.

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  12. Sometimes Anthony needs to start his articles by acknowleding the need of certain projects. He is wrong to state that there is no feasible value of th eproject, motorists know the values of this.
    Of course it is concerning that only 20 percent of the people involved were Zambians, it is high time that we reversed that and 80 percent should below to us.
    Mulungushi Textiles has been a campaing tool for PF and now for UPND. Learn from history, as long as Chinese imports are allowed, it will be defunct.

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  13. You don’t need fly overs in Lusaka to decongest traffic but several levels of spagetti roads all over Lusaka so that some roads will directly lead you straight into Great North or Great South roads avoiding the city centre.
    It is embarrassing to see our president going to open a flyover bridge and breaking the COVID 19 regulations.Does he really believe that Corona virus is very infectious?

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  14. So 3rd August ceases to be Farmers day and will now be called Flyover bridge day?
    Why did we even cancel the Agriculture show giving the Covid overcrowding excuse when we are doing the exact opposite today? Does it mean Covid is only affecting non-PF members? Have the Chinese secretly vaccinated PF members only against Covid?
    Covid is not mocked!
    If You play with fire, expect to be burnt!

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  15. katana – exactly this road will need upgrading in 5 years time…what was needed was a ring road joining GER and GNR, Mumbwa Road and Kafue Road

  16. Tarino why aren’t you here in Zambia to provide that advice or why aren’t you working at the respective ministry since you appear to have the technical know how of what was needed there? Engineer tarino

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  17. I have told UPND chaps here that this guy Anthony is too hot headed to write articles for them…where is he getting $13 million loan figure, the overrall figure is $289m India EXIM has loaned Zambian govt …do you research before rushing to write articles.

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  18. Has the infrastructure changed the lives of the people of Chawama and other surrounding areas? Not at all. Meanwhile they will have to pay the $15 million loan for many years to come.

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  19. Dear Anthony Bwalya, on a forum like this, you are speaking largely to the converted and to a few people who are oblivious to facts by virtue of being cadres that are eating well already and change threatens them in more ways than one. The problem with UPND is what Michael Sata said when UPND and PF were in alliance in UDA. After the technical talk by HH, Sata then said, ‘Now, listen to politics. I talk politics.’ HH and UPND has not learned how to condescend and speak to a 5 year old child to understand. Even I with a university degree, am lost with your Arithmetic. What more the masses?

  20. Problem is exaggerating figures. Where do you get the 13 million dollar figure from. And don’t give me that UPND nonsense of ‘so you don’t know’. Give a source we can all check and confirm.

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  21. @ Spaka, well said. Matter of fact you are discussing the systemic matters that I alluded to. Well, America itself has a vibrant secondhand market even as they sustain their own clothing industry but it is deliberate and it is structured. So you have charity drives (and I have learned a lot from those) as well as “seasonal fashions” that drive the ins and outs of textile and supports its growth deliberately. If we can weave the police uniform angle into our system that is already a small way in supporting our textile industry; but we do import those if I am not mistaken. Minds like yours will slowly help reshape different sectors of our country no doubt.

  22. Anthony be reminded that PF ideology is PRO POOR and UPND is hard core CAPITALISM.
    Note that though there may be some advantages with CAPITALISM but three main disadvantages outweigh the advantages and these are
    1, CORRUPTION, 2, UNEMPLOYMENT and 3, GREED and worse off there will be No SUBSIDIES, NO PARASTATALS. Implying Government having no business in business,
    meaning only few people will amass the countries wealthy and be in control of both the economy and Government.
    If for UPND by mistake came into power, the three disadvantages above will be the order of the day. ZESCO, NAPSA, IDC, ZAFFICO will be no more and come in
    will be ANGLO AMERICAN
    Mealie Meal prices will be determined by market force and wont be cheap..

    Am chalenging you Anthony to deny the above that they wont…

  23. Mulungushi Textiles was brain child of UNIP government and it served the purpose at the time until capitalist MMD came into power it became a white elephant. PF ideology is PRO POOR, thus it’s a mixed economy and UPND is hard core CAPITALISM and I can see it remaining as such if UPND came into power by mistake.
    Under UPND, ZESCO, NAPSA, ZAFFICO IDC will be no more because CAPITALISM favours market forces as opposed to subsidies. CORRUPTION, UNEMPLOYMENT and GREED will the order of the day as these three are the main disadvantages of CAPITALISM and outweighs the advantages by far. Government will have no business in business but just few Greed wealthy people running and controlling both the Economy and Government
    So Anthony leave Mulungushi and Kafue textiles to PRO POOR Governments…

  24. Surely, Mr. Anthony there are many good reasons for government to invest in infrastructure. That’s what governments do!

    You may wish to criticize this specific project but can’t compare the “opportunity cost” of a flyover to a textile factory. No party is going to mobilize enough public resources to cover the cost of job creation (in Zambia or any other country!) and you would be far better off to to talk about what UPND would do different from PF to attract private investment to Zambia while safeguarding social equity, the environment and so (i.e. other public goods). From what the UPND member has written here, it seems his party thinks public infrastructure is unimportant compared with state-owned factories. Sorry, that’s bad economics and not the right place to attack PF on…

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