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Tuesday, August 16, 2022

Simple math favors Zambia opposition leader Hakainde Hichilema

Feature Politics Simple math favors Zambia opposition leader Hakainde Hichilema

Asking for forgiveness if sounding like trying to discourage morale in the camps of other candidates.

Though 16 presidential candidates are contesting the upcoming election in Zambia, the real battle is between the opposition United Party for National Development (UPND) and the Ruling Patriotic Front (PF).

It is the third time UPND leader Hakainde Hichilema and PF leader Edgar Chagwa Lungu are facing each other in a general election.

If Hakainde Hichilema is going to lose again as prophesied by some prophets and predicted by some so-called political analysts, the question is by what margin?

Simple math points to Hakainde offsetting the margin. He has lost two elections and managed to narrow the margin in both hence probability of doing the same in the next election is high.

In the 2015 by-election, which was a result of the death of late President Michael Sata, Hakainde Hichilema lost to Edgar Chagwa Lungu by a margin of about 27,700 votes.

In the 2016 general election Hakainde lost again but managed to cut the margin to half. He lost by only about 13000 votes.

If anything has changed between 2016 and 2021, has changed in favor of Hakainde Hichilema. Standing on the way of fundamental human rights, corruption, negative attitude towards social media, unnecessary arrests, and violence have made people lose confidence in the PF government.

Internet is another thing that will help to produce the next president for Zambia. Social media fits into the equation.
Though there are several conflicting reports online about internet penetration in Zambia, every Zambian will agree that the number of Zambians who are on social media in 2021 is more than that of 2016.
An implication that social media is able to offset the 13000-vote difference won by PF in 2016 and can be concluded by rewriting the above question:

Hakainde Hichilema will win the upcoming August 12 election by how many votes? Will it be enough to avoid 50+1vote clause?

In the column article UPND’s Propaganda and Social Media Obsession Can’t Win Elections on Lusaka Times about a week ago, the author argues that social media politics has made UPND supporters create an illusion in their minds that they are popular and they have already won the 2021 elections.
This has nothing to do with propaganda. Unless one is not wise enough to know why there is a waged war against social media by the PF government. PF saw a loss coming a long time ago.

By Venus N Msyani
Concerned citizen

31 COMMENTS

  1. One of the opposition is wining these elections whichever way one looks at the historical voting statistics. Zambians are not stupid, they have seen the corruption, cadres in the likes of Max chongo flaunting corrupt money & cars, 48 houses, 41 fire trucks, gassing, honey bee expired medicines, toll gates & roads rehabilitation balloon cost, KKI airport corruption, The list goes on plus very high cost of living. Unless Zambians have become very very stupid, I don’t see how thieves can be balebwelelapo. There are a majority of silent Zambians who are just watching & not commenting or reacting to the current state of affairs however their vote will certainly speak very loud on 12th Aug. I don’t see PF getting beyond 40%

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  2. Complex maths however does not favour him, even additional maths does not favour him………………..the results will be hear breaking

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  3. Anyway, Let’s just wait and see who will win the election. This may go either way. You never know. I can’t judge but I will wait until final results get announced. Maybe Kaizer Zulu maybe be our next 2026 Presidential Candidate. Who knows

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  4. The high cost of living is disadvantaging the ruling party. I don’t think there is anyone who not feeling the heat from the high cost of living, unless those that are well connected.

    Anyway, I have made up my mind.

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  5. The author is right to say social media has increased between 2016 and 2021. However, the increase in social media favouring Upnd is direct proportional to the number of increase in the social media that is favouring the pf. It does not mean that all those who are clients of social media all belong to Upnd. There are a significant number of clients on social media who favour pf. The only difference with the political commentary emanating from social media is that most of it is made by Upnd cadres. Pf are mostly in the background but enjoy reading the commentary from the Upnd cadres and sometimes use the commentary to improve their(pf) campaign management.
    I think that the marginal difference between these two main parties may increase in favour of the pf because places that were not…

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  6. Guys don’t cheat yourselves especially Upnd! ECL and his team do not joke. And they don’t joke I repeat…
    North Western Province and western province is not same , during by-elections pf has won 47 out of 72 by elections particularly on those two provinces. I don’t see Upnd upsetting tables but crying!

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  7. I stopped reading at

    “In the 2016 general election Hakainde lost again but managed to cut the margin to half. He lost by only about 13000 votes.”

    This is clearly Under 5 thinking at it’s why Under 5 supporters will cry. Over 100, 000 is now 13 000?

    Anyway, let me just end here.

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  8. If we monitor the economic factors in the
    Country from 2015 ,2016 and 2021 the scale
    Will tilt towards HH.On the other side PF are
    Claiming to have brought Infrastructure development but Zambians are more worried
    About putting food on table.So let’s leave it
    To voters to decide.

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  9. Unfortunately this is not simple Math, it elections. Even if HH narrows his margin by another have to a 6000 votes difference he will still lose.

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  10. You are right to say “simple math”. Unfortunately for you, the algorithms have shifted tremendously.
    Now we have more numbers of formidable candidates especially in the PF strongholds who are “likely” to shift from perpetual lower. Real PF supporters can easily change.
    Registered voters in SP have evaporated because some people had registered and voted twice in the previous elections.
    Well, there is the first time voters who might support hh simply because they don’t know how poor the infrastructure used to be. They don’t remember miners died before getting their pay in Luanshya.

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  11. The UPND have been doing this since 2006. So we’ll wait for the results as will be announced by ECZ. Otherwise Hichilema is far from where Sata was when he shouted “I’ve not bloody lost!”. So how is going to win this election? I hope John Sangwa has already prepared the petition in advance

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  12. Social Media such as on Lusakatimes is not a true representative of how much support HH has gained. It’s a lie. The majority of UPND Bloggers are UPND London Branch, are failures in life riding to get jobs if HH had to win. And the truth is that 95% of UPND London Branch are Tonga by tribe. These guys have a WhatsApp Group. They wake up in the morning, go the WhatsApp Group and kick off blogging attacking anyone who supports PF. These chaps just Thumbs Down any comment even when it’s the truth. Follow up is another group in Atlanta/USA who do follow up in the afternoon of UK Time. Next month will be a sad outcome for these chaps.

  13. Mind you most of social media comentetors are not even registered voters particularly those in favor of UPND. PF is on the ground and hitting the ground very fast. UPND together with their leaders have been sleeping. They have just woken up and trying to beat time. As a result you find more UPND campaign vehicles getting involved in road traffic accidents. Or you find Mutale Nalumango running out of fuel and no food. All this is because of pannick. For fear of being arrested or fear of dying from covid HH has been hibernating in his tunnels in new Kasama. He is just coming out now and its too late for him. Mutati and KBF too have come too late and not even trusted by UPND compatriots.

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  14. Ba Mayo bana Lumango is trying but I do not think she still have the energy . PF have very strong SG in Mwila. So even Nkandu may not have the energy. She is heavily complemented by Davis Mwila. But in UPND the SG is not much to talk about. Not even sure who he is.
    Also u will not that the PF chairman is very actively involved in campaiagns and travelling widely. But UPND chairman ( Katuka or is Milupi) . Both are only seen at the press conferences at the UPND secretariat. The UPND campaings are only being driven by individual candidates and very little support from the leadership. Chila muntu palwakwe.

  15. How can somebody other than HH win the election with 22% inflation(MMD 6%), Exchange rate to a dollar K23(MMD 6%), Fuel per litre K17(MMD K6),Mealie meal k150(MMD K30), Borehole and toll gate tax(MMD such taxes never existed, Unsustainable debt(MMD sustainable debt), then some body wakes up to go and vote for continuity of such jokes

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  16. The maths assumptions are correct but are flawed becoz they ignore PF ‘s Election Rigging Skills and strength. The odds are against ECL and PF on the ground but in Zambia Elections are won by those who Count Votes and not by the Voters. ECL has total of ZPS,ECZ and Zambia Concourt. These 3 Electoral Institutions are key to Election Administration in Zambia and will determine the Winner of this Election unless HH and UPND Alliance revamp their Vote Protection Measures. ECL and PF know that they cannot win free,fair,credible and peaceful Elections in Zambia so to retain Power their only way is to massively rig the 2021 Elections. The writing is on the wall.

  17. 13th August HH will be president.
    UPND will be in the driving seat and the dollar will drop to its required level because we control the dollar.
    Mr Lungu will BWELELAMO TO CHAWAMA COMPOUND AND HE SHOULD NOT EXPECT ANYTHING LIKE ACCOMMODATION FROM OUR GOVERNMENT COZ HE HAS STOLEN MORE THAN ENOUGH FROM OUR TREASURY.

  18. Indeed ‘simple’ maths indeed… sadly the up coming election is not about ‘simple’ maths outs about governance…PF have learnt much from the close wins over hh… they have boots on the ground.. if social media won elections? Bobi Wine would be head of state… mukose…..

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  19. Shallow thinking and analysis. Southern province has gone down by about 100000 votes already according to the new register. This should worry you

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  20. Those guys above who are underletting simple math, okey tell us guys , which math yourselves who u know? You are jst a bunch of grade 7 pf cadre drop-outs. Anyway.

  21. PF is confident of winning these elections after rigging the voters’ roll by ensuring that the number of registered voters in the main opposition strongholds significantly reduced. But they underrated the fact that Kalaba is going to spoil their Northern, Muchinga and Luapula votes big time

  22. Hypocrisy bordering on to stupidity. First, HH claims he won the last elections and if as claimed he lost narrowly, why has he he continued not to recognise Lungu as legitimate president? Why is he manufacturing situations to try and tip the balance. As correctly said, HH is one of the candidates but please don’t impose him on the people. Let the people decide. PF and UPND are both poised to rig at all costs. The best case scenario for Zambia is if we ushered in the likes of UNIP out of protest and teach these uncaring politicians a lesson.

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