By Venus N Msyani
Asking for forgiveness if sounding like trying to discourage morale in the camps of other candidates. Though 16 presidential candidates are contesting the upcoming election in Zambia, the real battle is between the opposition United Party for National Development (UPND) and the Ruling Patriotic Front (PF).
It is the third time UPND leader Hakainde Hichilema and PF leader Edgar Chagwa Lungu are facing each other in a general election.
If Hakainde Hichilema is going to lose again as prophesied by some prophets and predicted by some so-called political analysts, the question is by what margin?
Simple math points to Hakainde offsetting the margin. He has lost two elections and managed to narrow the margin in both hence probability of doing the same in the next election is high.
In the 2015 by-election, which was a result of the death of late President Michael Sata, Hakainde Hichilema lost to Edgar Chagwa Lungu by a margin of about 27,700 votes.
In the 2016 general election Hakainde lost again but managed to cut the margin to half. He lost by only about 13000 votes.
If anything has changed between 2016 and 2021, has changed in favor of Hakainde Hichilema. Standing on the way of fundamental human rights, corruption, negative attitude towards social media, unnecessary arrests, and violence have made people lose confidence in the PF government.
Internet is another thing that will help to produce the next president for Zambia. Social media fits into the equation.
Though there are several conflicting reports online about internet penetration in Zambia, every Zambian will agree that the number of Zambians who are on social media in 2021 is more than that of 2016.
An implication that social media is able to offset the 13000-vote difference won by PF in 2016 and can be concluded by rewriting the above question:
Hakainde Hichilema will win the upcoming August 12 election by how many votes? Will it be enough to avoid 50+1vote clause?
In the column article “UPND’s Propaganda and Social Media Obsession Can’t Win Elections,” on Lusaka Times about a week ago, the author argues that social media politics has made UPND supporters create an illusion in their minds that they are popular and they have already won the 2021 elections.
This has nothing to do with propaganda. Unless one is not wise enough to know why there is a waged war against social media by the PF government. PF saw a loss coming a long time ago.
It is also possible that the UPND margin cut by half in 2016 may increase five to tenfold. Electorates are unpredictable.
True too, both parties must avoid a rerun; it is an uphill battle. PF should utilise the normal 90 minutes play time and not go into penalty shoot outs to beat the Reds.
In 2001, UPND lost to a very unpopular candidate in the name of Mwanawasa. So don’t always lean on these unfounded analyses.
Don’t be f00Iish, pf has no competition.
Mbuzi
UPND will be taught another lesson, people have advised this party to be on the ground, but they can’t do that, they are thinking that they have already won. It’s not too late please go we don’t want you to cry at last atibanibela ma votes, PF is on the ground, don’t just go where your strong holds are go where you are not known and tell them what you will do for them once you are voted into power or else mukaloba ilyauma
Is it true the “rigging experts”
former Minister of Finance, Dr. Katele Kalumba, former intelligence chief, Xavier Chungu and former State House Special Assistant Kaizer Zulu are demanding upfront payment.
While the client is very worried that Zambian’s are very alert and prepared for serious counteraction, including treasonable charges.
I thought HH lost by a margin of about 100,000 votes in 2016? I stand to be corrected? Where has the 13,000 come from?
HH cant lose to PF, How with all this mess, Be objective for once
Zambians are as decided as resolute to put UPND in power, I just don’t understand how we still have some PF remnants still in doubt. With a dead economy which has been like that even before covid then a Zambian wakes up to go and vote for PF, How mwebanthu
Yes, the battle is between UPND and PF with 16 escotees bubbling with false confidence as usual. With UPND having a very high chance
ECL, this time around, is in a better position to win the elections without a re-run. KCM, Mopane, Kafue hydropower, thermal power, new respectable housing for the police officers for the first time since independence, care for men in uniform, new hospitals, modern shopping malls, excellent lecture rooms, adding value to cassava, improved agriculture and many more. Too steep for HH to go over. VOTE ECL FOR A BETTER ZAMBIA TOMORROW.
Kaleza napali anyoko the writer of this article was born yesterday. It’s obvious that all that anatomy of niggary in his body is playing dumb and du.ll about most of fundamental components of the economy that has brought us thus far. I will waste no time trying to bring the deads on the page all Zambians are.
“In 2016 He had 1,760,347 or 47.63% while President Lungu got 1,860,877 or 50.35%”.
Niggaz are missing the force GBM, GUY, NEVERS, MILES, MULENGA went with to the dead camp but still they failed to dislodge PF. With ALL these and alot others from the camp leaving h² like a leper. We shall see.
As usual UPND supporters trying to mislead their supporters. PF has penetrated Southern, Western and North-Western provinces. What ever votes the PF will loose in other provinces will be compansated by the three provinces. UPND is still headed for another humiliating defeat.
While the PF may have failed in a few areas, UPND cannot and will not be a solution. All the sharp minds of Zambia are already in government and the PF. SORRY ALEWELELAPO!
Halelusa Hagen
Ba under5 party no manifesto, the one you have is copy and paste from Jamaica, naka useless 10point plan, No understanding of how government systems function..During this campaign period ba upnd have abandoned their copy and paste manifesto please just check the posting on their pages nothing to show forth. Under5 are just insulting people, under5 cadres are now beating people..I guess another defeat is on the way aka number six.
You should be worried that the margin keeps widening. In 2015, hh lost to a little known Edgar by 27000 votes, in 2016 , he lost by 100530 votes. Where did you get your 13 pin? Truly things are badoooo! But hh is not the alternative, so am better off in a flying pan. His camp has also disintegrated, a number of prominent individuals from SP have resigned but as usual, you’re downplaying all that!
The key issue missed into the article is voter behavior. In 2017 voter turnout was very high in UPND strongholds and low in PF strongholds. The tables have changed with a lot more registered voters in PF strongholds this time around. ECL is winning by a much wider margin this time around