By Kapya Kaoma.
Ignore the Opinion polls, the campaign songs, TV and Radio Ads, the social media posts and the big crowds. August 12, 2021, is all that matters! We will surely wake up to jubilant songs for some, and tears for others. For the Presidential results, we will wait for days to know the winner. As votes roll in, team HH and Lungu will be waiting to celebrate. Yet 50+1 may spoil the party for both. No wonder HH and Lungu dread August 12.
Is it going to add to HH’s list of historic losses in Zambian history? Will it be the day when he will cry like a kid wondering what just happened? Will it be the day when he will finally retire from politics? Or will August 12 finally rewrite his autobiography by becoming the seventh President of Zambia and grant him a burial site at Embassy Park? Or will it be the day when he will put his tail between his legs, pick up the phone, and call M’membe, Kalaba, Mumba and others and beg for their hand?
As for Lungu, is this the day when he will dance and thank his ancestors for giving him another term in office? Is this the day he will thank his cronies, GBM, Kambwili and Nawakwi and many others for their inglorious ethnic and unethical stoloniferous lies about HH? Or will August 12 send him parking from Plot 1, and probably land him and his minions in jail for the many crimes committed against Zambians? Will he cringe before HH as if to the Pope, reverently begging for a pardon? Will he cry like Rupiah Banda, knowing it’s over and swallow his pride, and fear HH’s vindictive wrath? Or will it be the day when he will ask his imps to take sacks of U.S. dollars to M’membe, Kalaba, Mumba and others and ask them to unite against HH? After all politics is a good game, today’s enemies are tomorrow’s buddies.
These scenarios are possible despite the myth presented by Opinion polls. In cases where the Constitution demands 50+1, and a big number of candidates are running, Opinion Polls are hard to interpret. A candidate may lead in a Poll, but she or he may not win the elections. Lungu may lead HH 45 to 40, but that won’t make him President unless he meets 50+1 of the total vote cast on election day. Pollsters must add this element to the interpretation of Opinion Polls–our Constitution demands a 50+1 threshold for one to become president. Hence we may not have a winner following the August 12, elections.
Besides, the 2021 landscape is totally different from the 2016 scenario, where we had only HH and Lungu as illustrious candidates. The closest one would compare it to is 2001–we have some candidates who may flummox this election one way or the other. Unlike FDD Edith Nawakwi in 2016, it will be a mistake for the PF or the UPND to think M’membe, Kalaba and others would get 0% of the total vote. Assuming that all smaller players get 11% (on a conservative end) and we add 1% of spoiled ballots, HH and Lungu have 88% of the vote to split. It implies that one has to get 38% while the other has to get 50% to win in the first round.
PF thinks it would win by 70%–leaving HH at 18%. With the economy biting, such a margin only exists on Mars. No wonder Professor Lou is desperately lying about HH’s position on homosexuality–he is just as Homophobic as Lungu. But the UPND should not take it lightly. It is a psychological game–a propaganda tool that aims to push the UPND into believing that the election will be decided in the first round. It is this game that cost the UPND the 2016 election. Rather the UPND should go into this election ready for the RE-RUN–it must run the marathon as opposed to a sprint to Plot 1! All presidential votes must be carefully monitored, counted and protected if HH has a long short on the Presidency. If UPND goes only for the HH vote, the PF is more likely to steal some votes from smaller parties in its strongholds. Such parties won’t have reasons to contest the results–thus giving the PF the path to 50+1. Even then, it would be hard for the UPND to petition the election results on behalf of other candidates if they are not parties to the lawsuit–another reason HH should start building bridges before August 12.
M’membe, Kalaba, and others are not bystanders in this race. These candidates are aware that they won’t win this election, but they will be spoilers–that is they will make it hard for either Lungu or HH to get 50 + 1. If the adage that politics has no permanent enemies, but common interests stands, these candidates are not wasting their time. The question is, to whom are they going to sell their souls?
This is a billion dollar question giving HH and Lungu sleepless nights!
PF ARE DREAMING AS ALWAYS ON ALL ISSUES
Fred M’membe will back Edgar Lungu if there’s no winner in the first round. That is M’membe’s own promise to Zambians. If HH loses, Fred M’membe will celebrate like a winner of the elections.
MMD and SP would opt for a joinder with PF. The DP already aligns with UPND. But sometimes even the sex and round favour the ruling parties.
If Lungu doesn’t get 50+1 in the first round he is on his way out of state house. I don’t think PF vs UPND , PF would win the election. What have costed the opposition parties is fielding 1000 presidential candidates against the ruling party!
Stop dreaming, Kalaba is not a factor, Mmembe has a good structure but is also not a factor, the election will be determined by turn out in stronghoods.
Kapya Kaoma is considering a possible outcome of this election and wrote his opinion on that basis. Although M’membe has made it clear that he would back ECL in the event of a re-run, I doubt it the entire SP would go along with him. But I see M’membe becoming Lungu’s possible campaign manager. He’s that unfaithful to his professed socialist leanings.
That M’membe is supporting Lungu is weird enough, considering that Lungu closed The Post down for no reason. Fred must really hate HH from the bottom of his heart. However the SP has got next to no following at all so it won’t make the difference on election day.
This is what Kapya Kaoma’s opinion but on the other hand this race a clear battle between ECL and HH and no matter what HH will carry the day because the once Mighty PF has lost because they have been thriving on lies and now they cannot sustain them. all the schemes to help retain power have fallen apart. I was reading an article where Mr. Msoni has cautioned the Army Commander not to be seen to be partisan but to defend the Republican constitution. Most of the fellows holding senior govt positions are in a very tricky situation because they owe the appointing authority loyalty hence their attempts to rescue from impending defeat.
Don’t be silly. I am on the ground every day and my team have carried out thorough detailed research into predicted results which show our father ECL garnering over 70 percent of the votes. Stop dreaming. Some of you in upnd will have heart attacks with final results are announced. I am KZ and when it comes to elections I don’t mess around
I dont know how you can predict Fred Meembe’s position given that his profile has never been underpinned by socialist principles…look at how he ran the The Post and what he did with the profits…this is an apex capitalist wolf in a sheep’s clothing. He is not even a factor in this election.
How many shares did The Post sell to workers? That tells u how socialist M’membe is.
Yes it’s possible that we might go into a re-run. I don’t any significant change in the voting pattern. It’ll be 3.5 provinces against 6.5. Although UPND has gained in the East from Lundazi upwards, the overall vote will favour the PF. I don’t see HH doing well in the second run. The UPND won’t get half the seats in Parliament. If they reach 60 then they’d have done very well. The PF are likely to get above 80. That’s what will determine the re-run. HH has concentrated on being President alone, he hasn’t marshalled any support for his MPs. How many members of his NMC go with him for campaigns? In UPND it’s each one for himself, some senior members like Jack Mwiimbu are fighting for survival
“What if?” does’nt work. “Sembe..” si yi sebenza. The prognosis may not be crystal clear at the beginning, but there’s always a prominent, potential winner in every election. A direct comparison of the main candidates often plays an important role to establish this – that’s why most countries will have a professional one to one debate of the main candidates shortly before election day. After that, most people are able to decide who they prefer to be president.
No Corruption In Zambia @7
Don’t bring your ignorance and biasness. Mmembe lost The Post not because of Lungu. It’s because he just faced The Law in the courts. He did not pay taxes for many years while his business was making profit. If I can remember the man owed Zambia to the equivalent of $23 Dollars. He is lucky and in any other country, he would be in jail this time around. So Lungu did him a favour to leave him scot-free
It’s The Post as a business that owed the taxes and not Fred M’membe the natural person.
Ayatollah has brought in a point that I have noticed too. MPs and grassroot positions have been left to aspirants to fend for themselves. UPND casually thinks leadership must come from the top to bottom. This accounts for H²’s quinquennial loses.
While extra time in this election is less likely, it is worth mentioning what may happen if a rerun is inevitable. SP and MMD would on principle support a ‘tired’ party that will be easy to unseat in 2026 and not the ‘fresh’ UPND.
Privatisation isn’t a factor on Hakainde’ success. Similarly, Mmembe’s Post issue is dead, his strategic eyes are squared on presidency.
This is how it turn out in the first round because l anticipate a high vote turn
Eastern will wipe clear out southern province, Western and North Western including pockets of resistance in central province will be taken care off but Luapula. Any difference in Lusaka and Copperbelt will be managed by Muchinga and Northern province will emerge to clean up any stubborn resistance and wrap up the win. You must bear in mind the bicycles must bring a good return on investment. UPND has not invested seriously in the rural grassroots and are banking on hype which has little retention except in Lusaka and Copperbelt.
This is how it turn out in the first round because l anticipate a high voter turn out.
Eastern will clear out southern province vote, Western and North Western including pockets of resistance in central province will be taken care off by Luapula. Any difference in Lusaka and Copperbelt will be managed by Muchinga and Northern province will emerge to clean up any stubborn resistance and wrap up the win. You must bear in mind the bicycles must bring a good return on investment. UPND has not invested seriously in the rural grassroots and are banking on hype which has little retention except in Lusaka and Copperbelt.
July 31, 2021 At 2:24 pm
This is how it will turn out in the first round because l anticipate a high vote turn out.
Eastern will clear out southern province vote , Western and North Western including pockets of resistance in central province will be taken care of by Luapula. Any difference in Lusaka and Copperbelt will be managed by Muchinga and Northern province will emerge to clean up any stubborn resistance and wrap up the win. You must bear in mind the bicycles must bring a good return on investment. UPND has not invested seriously in the rural grassroots and are banking on hype which has little retention except in Lusaka and Copperbelt.
The two were only separated by 10 000 votes last time. It could swing either ways. I think it’s HH’s election to lose. Zambia show the world, we are a mature democracy.
Yes mr stup!d KZ you are on the ground every day? Guess that ground is as big as your bathroom – so 1m by 1m – and it has one person in it (stup!d you) so yes I’m not very surprised that 70% of you votes for the worst president the country has ever had, your former boss who sacked you for being an absolute A55HOLE and bringing disaster to the party. Where I am last time around everybody voted PF yes, but THIS time they feel CHEATED and sorry NO MORE Edgar China Lungu!
If last voting pattern can be used as a base, it’s more tough for HH this time around. That’s because he’s starting off with a 100,000 decline in the total number of registered voters in Southern, Western and North Western Province. He first needs to pick-up 100,000 votes from last elections’ PF strongholds before he can begin to imagine getting into state house. Yes, there are many disgruntled voters on both sides, but more so on PF side as a ruling party. But, how many of those unhappy voters will actually vote for the opposition if they do vote? And, will they all vote for UPND? Just on this alone, an outright win by UPND seems like a pipe dream. UPND have an uphill battle winning through a re-run too because they fair badly in maintaining good relationships with other parties and…
… relationships with other parties and individuals who can bring a good number of voters. If I were UPND, I would try to mend fences while I still have time and not rushing to counting the eggs before they hatch.
@ Mulingoti Machai #3
Apologise for the typographical error above. Below is the intended statement:
MMD and SP would opt for a joinder with PF. The DP already aligns with UPND. But sometimes even the SECOND round favour the ruling parties
Very well analysed Kapya J Kaoma. This is my take. 12th August very tricky. Very possible re run.