Sunday, June 16, 2024

New Poll predicts President Lungu would win by 56.8% vote

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The Political Science Association of Zambia (PSAZ) 2021 VOTER behaviour and candidate choice survey has revealed that if elections were held today, President Edgar Chagwa Lungu would win by 56.8% votes.

Presenting the findings today, PSAZ says the closest contender who is UPND leader Hakainde Hichilema would come in second with 40% of the votes followed by Socialist Party leader Fred M’membe with 1.34% votes, DP’s Harry Kalaba with 0.5%, PAC’s Andyfold Banda with 0.21% and 1.06 showed that they were undecided.

He said the survey was conducted in 5 provinces, namely Lusaka, Muchinga, Central, Northern, and North Western provinces.

Speaking during the survey dissemination program, PSAZ Principle investigator and political scientist, Joe Dambwa said the association used multi stage sampling where the association picked 5 Constituencies to sample from during the survey.

He said that the association ensured that all the people that were sampled during the survey were registered voters that are to participate in next week’s elections.

“96% respondents were not newly registered voters and had previously voted while only 2%were newly registered voters and 2 percent declined to respond.” He said.

Also speaking during the dissemination, Ferraline UK founder, Richard Elsen lauded the PSAZ for the survey saying it was a brilliant and professionally conducted.
oped it would be fairly reported in the media

He also hoped that the turnout in next week’s elections would be good.

The media at the unveiling of the polls

46 COMMENTS

  1. We are waiting for that History Professor from UNZA, Professor B.J. PHIRI, who specializes in qualitative research to dispute the outcome of this quantitative research tool.

  2. SADLY, THIS S TOTALLY A FAILED SURVEY AND I WILL TEL YOU THAT WITH 2 CONSTITUENCIES OUT TEN IN EACH
    PROVINCE AND ONLY FIVE PROVINCES WHICH IS HALF , SORRY IS THIS TOTALLY WRONG
    AND CAN BET WITH YOU THAT THESE RESULTS SHALL ACTUALLY BE 59% HH AND 41% ECL OR LESS.

    SO WAIT AND SEE E.G; LOOK SOUTHERN ALONE FOR HH IS 95% , COPPEBERBELT IS 75% , EASTERN IS; 55%, LUAPULA IS 50% AND WESTERN IS ABOUT 70% , SO WAIT AND SEE HOW IT GOES

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  3. Thankfully, the word OPINION sounds like ONION and you know what the later does to the eyes, it makes one cry.

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  4. This poll is like having a water & oil mixture which has settled. You then scoop the top to analyze the “mix” & enthusiastically publish your results. Very laughable

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  5. Let’s just wait til August 12th..then someone will quit Politics….I know they will cry foul but Zambians can’t be fooled by cheap Politics and $5 million borrowed money….HH will be history by this time next week

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  6. The atmosphere in the country is exactly as it was when frustrated Zed people kicked KK’s ass in 1991. The same fate awaits the thug presently illegally occupying state house. Ati political scientists! These are are cadres paid by that drunkard, clueless bandit! Lungu will be no more after 12 August.

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  7. Lungu needs this organization.

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    Farraline Public Relations
    71-75 Shelton Street

    London WC2H 9JQ

    Tel: 0800 001 6242

    ?

    Richard Elsen

    Founder

    ?

    Farraline’s founder has over 20 years’ experience of dispute and litigation PR and reputation management.

     

    Richard has handled the media in many of the most challenging and high profile cases, dealing with national and international media.

     

    Formerly Deputy Head of Labour’s Rapid Rebuttal & Media Attack Unit, Richard has developed a specialism in cases with a political dimension, inluding those involving extradition and Interpol Red Notices.

    ?

    Richard can be reached on 07886757307 or [email protected]

    Nigel Rosser

    Partner

    ?

    Nigel spent over a decade at the London Evening…

  8. No Southern province, that’s where UPND gets the most voters from. And they don’t even state the number of respondents. Worthless poll.

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  9. Nonsense Nonsense ABSOLUTE NONSENSE
    HOW MUCH WERE THEY GIVEN TO PUT OUT THOSE FIGURES
    THEY ARE MORE THAN 10% OUT
    KAUNDA STYLE EXIT AWAITS LUNGU HERE WE COME

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  10. 96% respondents were not newly registered voters and had previously voted while only 2%were newly registered voters and 2 percent declined to respond…
    How factual is this statement?

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  11. Do these guys know how to conduct polls? What was the sample on which this data was based? In fact, the sample is not representative of the Zambian population. It is supposed to cover all the provinces. Moreover, the conclusion is very weak. It is supposed to read …% of the population is likely to vote for candidate X, etc. These guys should go back to school to learn basic research methods.
    This is inductive reasoning where the conclusion is probable, and not certain.

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  12. They are trying to get people on board with there already cooked up numbers psychologically…the problem is, people are not buying this at all and hence the desperate move to involve soldiers to suppress the will of the people.

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  13. Ati political science association of Zambia—formed weeks before an election with no proven track record, and people should believe this nonsense? Fusek!

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  14. Most people that comment on here in the diaspora and won’t vote. Come Next week you will see ECL will bounce back. The very people you call dull or foolish are the ones that will vote for him.

  15. The good thing is that opinion polls don’t mean the truth otherwise in the US, Hillary Clinton would have won over Trump as all opinion polls were in her favour by far

    • Yes, opinion polls are usually very incorrect because of so many factors, because some parties are dishing out money some people think opinion poll staff are part of the money dishing party so they speak in favour of such parties whilst the secret ballot reveals the opposite. With the harsh realities people are going through, this opinion polls seems highly unlikely

  16. Neo Simutanyi has for a very long time been giving as false analytical qualitative predictions. The PF have fallen for it and are continually publishing such. Human behaviour is hard to comprehend. While Lungu is wining the polls, it is hard to put a figure to it, like 56.80 percent

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  17. Intelligently true. Iyi natupnda kale.
    Upndead gloves down. Boots off.
    Just retire h².
    Meanwhile after all Zambians know that it’s PF100%, ECL100%, Zambia overdrive100%, Bumper harvest 100%, Elite Zambians100%, Peace100%, Empowerment100%, More money in your pockets with hard work 100% and Prosperity100%.

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  18. We want a transparent election not abracadabra as the wishful poll here is suggesting.Now what is this we hearing ati ballot boxes have beeen tempered with.

  19. Changwa agwa chapwa, uka tubula nakambuti kwa mulomo twaa inge mulilima yena nanunungu tuna yani, akaiseleze namalyanga yoo!

  20. Just watch Chagwa rigg the polls and Zambia dive into civil strife leading to the disintegration of the country into two or three separate countries. If Bembas still think that Others especially Tongas and Rotses can still stomach their stinking thieving ways, watch what happens next week, ba nyelile matsholi?

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  21. This President can’t win a free and fair election as already said by the economist intelligence unit , our own independent research shows that only 1 million out of 7 million voters want him, and those who want him are mostly those who want to keep their jobs, those who get contracts and finally those scared of jail

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  22. If he rigs again he will feel the devil Lucifer himself fight his stinky backside like hell! This is going to be very dangerous waters uncharted in most ways, if his ravaging fits don’t slay him, Zambians will facilitate his rendezvous with his maker to face his judgement! Enough is enough, this incompetence mustn’t endure on!

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  23. Supposing the prediction turns out to be wrong? Any consequences for giving false hope or anguish to the candidates? Food for thought, mates.

  24. True hates and so it shall be.
    Hihihihihihihihihi hihihihihihihihihi.
    It’s just elections folks no ghost voters. With that no chance upndead.
    He WHILL HCRY HAGAIN.

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  25. Not many people will admit their intention to vote for HH coz of fear of some sort of repercussion considering how violent PF is. So easy to say they will vote for that empty head Lungu but vote otherwise on the actual day.

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  26. @36 Njangwamuloty
    It is such unpatriotic innuendos that make me doubt the intelligence of the opposition. If you lose, you break away from Zambia? I tell you, you are a very selfish, prejudiced individual worse than the corruption perceived to be perpetrated by the current government.

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