Zambia’s Inflation continues trending down, now at 14.2 from 15.1

1. The Bally effect………..

   This is small effect is mainly due to normalcy being restored to systems of governance………

   Well before real economic measures kick in………..

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2. This explains why even the exchange rate has stabilised since July last year. Inflation is an erosion on the economy

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3. Should our father chikwanda die then his blood will be on HHs hands. Remember that chikwanda comes from a royal family. When you kill royalty you will die shortly after wards. Hh is an evil hateful demon

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4. I think the issue we always said is to address long-term rather than the seasonality Meaning you look at the broad based measures of Inflation long-term that is CORE Inflation As it is Inflation risk are high on oil and agro inputs like fertilisers you expect treasuries also to be impacted by oil disruption significantly so it will reflect in global and regional good prices Yes it’s trending down this year how about 5 year from now How is the Core PCE,GDP price index ,the unemployment rate reflecting the annual variations of Inflation etc Can we see this measure reflected in our markets and relate the Inflation adjustment correlation in a 1 year or 2 breakeven Inflation rate We have very good reports at the agency but I think let’s broaden the measures and macro manage apart from…

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5. People often need explanation on why Inflation has fallen and yet PCE has risen or income disposal has fallen it’s important to target and get Inflation measures accurate and rebalance the basket or composites and see it broader in MPC policy formulation because if mispriced such questions often comes up is it 16% or 15% or 14% or some quartile etc

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6. Exchange rate measures the state of the economy performance and expectations in long-term and also in the short-term and Inflation is a factor in that strength So if food Inflation is moving this side there must be some correlation as explained

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7. It’s also a statistical year book sectorial and in real-time leading economic indicators for decision making in those sectors of value shaping economic policy Management apart usual demographics and other statistical compilations say census of agricultural sector land crops cattle fish stocks firms catchments for the Zambia statistics year book also like a Treasury Inflation series and those mismatches

   Napyimo

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8. Well managing Inflation is to address the core economic fundamentals and measure them in those good reports by the agency CORE because food is seasonality It’s also a measure of broader money that is the exchange rate and velocity So in addition to productivity you control the growth of mone Inflation is trending 7.5% from 1.4% a 434% US. The question wether it’s transitory or had come to stay is another Our kwacha not surprising around K18.25 here we always revert to the mean values after some progress that is why address the root cause will transition to healthy levels long-term napyamo

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