Tuesday, October 15, 2024

Zambia’s power, cost of living crisis

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By Nkonkomalimba Kafunda

As Zambians brace for increased hours of prolonged load shedding due to the impeding shutdown of the Kariba Dam Power station, power utility ZESCO . and by extension the government, seem at odds to find immediate short term mitigations to the crisis that has gripped the Southern African Nation over the past year.

The power deficit, caused by a severe El Nino induced drought that has incapacitated the country’s 86% hydro dependent electric generation capacity, has greatly exacerbated the woes of the majority of citizens, a cost of living crisis foremost amongst them, leaving the 3 year old UPND administration deeply unpopular. Paradoxically, the ruling party continues to win local government by elections, a situation the opposition attributes this to rampant vote buying in predominately poverty stricken wards with high levels of illiteracy and ignorance. Of 58 y elections held since the 2021 general elections, the UPND have won over 50, gaining significant inroads in opposition strongholds along the way.
Disappointingly, President Hakainde Hichilema at the official opening of the 4th session of the 13th national assembly September 13th called the power deficit ‘regrettable’ saying his government ‘sympathized’ with Zambians but neglected to give the people any measure of comfort by failing to state what his government was doing to mitigate the people’s suffering, in the short term. He did, however, allude to agreements signed In China for solar power generation ad a new thermal power plant in Maamba which will be operational in 2026.

Perhaps noticing this blunder, his Minister of Energy Makozo Chikote, in a September 18 ministerial statement told parliament that depending on availability in the Southern Africa power pool, Zambia will import 450 megawatts of power. This combined with 290 Mega watts rolled back from cancelled exports and power from independent producers will in the immediate term cushion the crisis. Thus far, this has proved to be insufficient and, therefore, ineffective.

The country has an installed generation capacity of 3,777 Mega Watts, peak demand of 2410 Mega Watts but is currently generating 1019 Mega Watts, according to minister Chikote.

Generally things are looking dire. Galloping inflation stands at around 15.4% way above the target range of 6-8% , the staple, mealie meal, is hovering around K350 up from K150 3years ago, The Kwacha exchange rate to the US dollar is gyrating in the K26-28 rage while petrol is oscillating around K30 subject to monthly review. 45% of children under the age of five are suffering from malnutrition and, as a consequence, stunted growth. Economic growth projections have been adjusted downwards to 2.4% from the initial 4.7%.

With such a bleak outlook Zambians cannot afford the luxury of optimism. The current government’s euphoric rise to power amid pomp ad pageantry has been overshadowed by the stratospheric rise in poverty levels. Government statistics indicate 60% Zambians cannot meet basic daily needs. In rural areas the figure is as high as 84%.

Granted the UPND inherited a broken down, debt ridden, defaulting economy, the cornerstone of their recovery program, debt restructuring, has not translated into tangible improvements in the lives of the people, despite agreements having been reached in March 2024 with the official creditors’ committee co chaired by France and China. The UPND “Zambia forward” motto has, seemingly. lost momentum
Asphyxiation, the failure to breathe, is suffocating Zambians economically. It is not uncommon for families to survive on one or no meal a day. Life has simply become unaffordable. According to the Jesuit Centre for Theological Reflection (JCTR) the monthly food basket for family of five stands at K10,4000, way beyond the reach of the overwhelming majority of households.

On a relatively positive note, the standard bearer and driver of UPND decentralization and devolution policy, the enhanced Constituency Development Fund is almost living up to it’s accolade as a game charger. Communities, though with great bureaucratic difficulty, are able to identify and implement projects which they feel best serve their needs. Additionally, loans, grants and bursaries have enabled citizens access to affordable capital as well as tertiary skills development for young people countrywide. Unfortunately, not all Zambians in need can access these funds. The fund has been increased to K30.6 million from K1.6 million in 2021 per constituency per year .

On a somewhat optimistic note, government has concentrated on reviving the long ailing mining sector, amidst unprecedented self-aggrandizement, self-praise and back slapping in the process. The major limping and handicapped mines KCM ad Mopani are now back on stream, though questions linger about KCM investor Vadantta Resources’ financial capability to effectively and efficiently run the mines. In Luanshya ,Shaft 28 is being dewatered after almost half a century in limbo. However, the itty gritties of the deals to resuscitate the mines are murky at best and down right shadowy at worst. Principles of accountability ad transparency have been largely ignored in these opaque mining sector transactions. Zambians are largely in the dark as to the details. Only what the investor is pledging to bring has ee disclosed, what they are getting I return remain state secrets.

Rather ambitiously, the government has set a target of 3 million tons of copper production by the end of the decade from 2023’s production figure of 680,000 tons.

Unsurprisingly, the country’s future prospects seem to be heavily weighed on extractive industry. Earlier this year government launched a 90 million dollar aerial geological survey to identify areas and extent of mineral deposits countrywide. The government has also made pronouncements of issuing mining licensees to locals who can then partner with foreigners in all manner of mining ventures.

We patiently await the impact of these initiatives on the lives of the Zambian people.

15 COMMENTS

  1. The energy crisis has spectacularly exposed government incompetence, from whence it will be hard to recover and regain credibility.

    • Which government? Do you even understand what is happening? Zambia could have bought sufficient amount of electricity from Mozambiaque but the previous government left huge amounts of debt. How do you pay that debt when the Chinese also want their money? This drought has exposed this country to our short-term thinking. Scientists have been warning for years of climate change but did previous governments adhere to the warnings? No, they didn’t because we appoint cadres and nincompoops as ministers.

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    • Stop blaming the previous government. Your government has received plenty of kaloba from IMF and World Bank which they are misusing. Otherwise you are correct when you say “we appoint cadres and nincompoops as ministers”. How can we replace the current crop of nincompoops? 2026 is too far away. We will soon be bankrupt

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  2. Please don’t use drought as an excuse. Go to community house and ask the occupant to reveal and actualize power supply as per his boasting.
    Never never blame the weather… it’s poor leadership and now that we have good leadership let’s have power 24/7.

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    • The drought has affected the entire Southern Africa but how come waterless South Africa has effectively dealt with loadshedding?
      They surely have a better government because it is Ramaphosa who has solved the problem while our gallivanting President has been busy spreading his carbon footprint and contributing to global warming. That global warming will only mean more droughts, therefore more loadshedding.

    • Speak to Eng. JOE who went on Radio saying its almost over
      HH would be the right person but he keeps running away from Zesco issues
      Also it appears we Zambians love suffering

  3. Did anyone not tell LT that the 2025 budget was presented to the country in parliament yesterday (27 September 2024)?
    That is real news, yet all we are seeing is non news butanti government opinions as your leaders.
    Didn’t any of your so called journalist go to the budget presentation yesterday?
    Surely, such a major event of the year should be the leading headline, yet it is not even mentioned.
    This is scandalous and disgraceful.

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    • Looks like LT relies on free reports. Thats why they arent on top of things. As you can see in their appeal for Column articles they were asked how much they pay for stories but couldnt answer. Free articles are usually full of cooked opinions and other lies. LT, Employ a fulltime newsroom!

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  4. This problem would have been averted if the govt had not been selling electricity, thereby using more water than normal domestic demand. If you look at the time time before the rain season begins, it is very clear that the water in the dam would have been enough with just a little load shedding. GRZ should declare our coal resources a strategic resource and build more coal power plants. Furthermore they should not delay the construction of Batoka, Mambilima and Mumbotuta hydro power plants. Zambia should also adopt aggressive bioenergy program to substitute petroleum products with ethanol and biomass. What are the planners at Ministry of Energy doing? Are thy Chimbwi No Plan?

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  5. I don’t know how much this will cost but if it is feasible put other developments on hold for a few years after all you been waiting for years wait a few more and use the cdf money to have mini electric grids in every region supplied by solar farms and wind turbines it will be cheaper than dams and more reliable.

  6. Poor leadership in African countries and the word MAINTENANCE does not exist in their vocabulary or actions – same here in SA. All about enriching themselves!!

  7. @ Katana
    Very correct analysis except that these PF kaponyas have no capacity to see what went wrong because they were used to sleep with money on their beds. When now they are asked by courts to explain where they got the money they fail, and simply say no its persecution.

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