By Namukolo Miyanda, Pan-Africanist and Governance Expert
The Zambian people are demanding change in August 2026, and this article forcefully defends Dr. Chris Zumani Zimba’s prediction that Brian Mundubile will win with over 70% of the total votes cast. Dr. Zimba’s projection that Mundubile will secure over 70% in the first round is not conjecture. It is a logical conclusion drawn from observable political dynamics, public sentiment, and the documented failures of the incumbent administration. Even under deliberately difficult conditions where opposition preparation has been obstructed by erratic mandate execution from state institutions, Mundubile is positioned to command over 70% of total votes and defeat President Hakainde Hichilema decisively, with no re-run required.
Dr. Zimba’s margin begins with the public verdict on UPND’s governance since 2021. Zambians have judged the administration on outcomes, not rhetoric, and the verdict is uniform: hope for a better future has collapsed. The high cost of living, vanished money circulation, poor planning, absence of tangible implementation, weaponized state institutions, chronic procrastination, relentless loadshedding, preferential treatment of foreign investors, selective prosecution, and unchecked corruption have destroyed public confidence. Former supporters now openly call the party leadership self-centered and manipulative. The August elections are therefore not routine. They are the moment Zambians can replace a failed administration with a president and party committed to citizen welfare and an empathetic heart.
To dismiss Dr. Zimba’s assertion is to ignore evidence. His projection is built on content analysis of public discourse and phenomenological assessment of lived experience. Both methods converge on one fact: years of economic hardship under UPND have created an overwhelming demand for alternatives. This is corroborated by projections from local and international experts engaged by the Tonse Alliance, who place Mundubile’s win above 70%. The figures are projections, but the direction is undeniable in the daily reality Zambians endure.
The contrast on the ground is stark and revealing. Brian Mundubile, representing the National Reconciliation Party for Unity and Prosperity under the Tonse Pamodzi Alliance, is filling grounds and streets with massive crowds nationwide. That turnout reflects the resolve of Zambia’s 8.7 million registered voters to end the current leadership. Meanwhile, UPND has refused rallies of comparable scale. That avoidance limits direct comparison and exposes awareness of the shifting mood. Large gatherings are not mere enthusiasm. They are intent, and intent translates into votes.
Critics point to NRPUP’s failure to field candidates in 72 constituencies, about 33% of parliamentary seats, as evidence of weak structures. That argument collapses under scrutiny. Those 72 constituencies sit largely within UPND’s traditional strongholds, and even there independent candidates are poised to benefit from voter fury over UPND’s botched adoption process. The 2026 election is about the presidency, not parliamentary arithmetic. Zambian voters are more literate than they were a decade ago and can separate the MP vote from the presidential vote. Governing capacity depends on competence, problem-solving, and a people-centered reputation. On those measures, Mundubile outranks every other contender.
Comparisons to 2021 are misleading. In 2021 UPND was an untested promise. In 2026 it is a tested government, and the results are clear to voters. NRPUP enters as a new party with a distinct agenda that Zambians are prepared to test. Dr. Zimba’s tenure as Presidential Political Advisor from 2019 to 2025 gives him the strategic insight to read these shifts accurately. Distinguishing the factors that shape elections from using them as research samples is basic methodology, and Dr. Zimba’s analysis respects that difference.
UPND entered this cycle expecting a weak, fractured opposition. That assumption has failed. The party now faces a mobilized electorate and is resorting to voter apathy instead of performance. The Tonse Pamodzi Alliance must respond decisively: intensify mobilization, drive voter turnout on election day, recruit voter protection personnel, and deploy advanced digital tools to block manipulation. Voters must stay vigilant to protect the integrity of the process and the democracy Zambians cherish.
Dr. Chris Zumani Zimba’s projection of over 70% reflects the political reality: an incumbent that has squandered public trust, and an alternative that has earned support by prioritizing citizen welfare. The numbers serve a predictive purpose, but the trajectory they indicate is visible across Zambia. Zambians are ready for change, and logic points to Mundubile delivering it in the first round.
