“We took over the company. It’s been 9 years, and since then, every year it is giving us a minimum of $500 million plus $1 billion every year; it has been continuously giving back. It’s a matter of taking a chance. All people sitting there: Take chance! If you won’t take chance, nothing will happen. Why we are different – different because we take chances.”
These are the words of Anil Agarwal, the majority owner of Vendetta Resources which owns Konkola Copper Mines (KCM). A true mark of a Gujarati businessman. Driven ruthlessly by ambition and profit. Taking every chance seriously—straight or crooked—to make profit. Indeed, the many young businessmen he motivated with that speech may be on their way to Zambia now, to ‘take chances’ with the opportunities in Zambia, and enjoy the VVIP treatment we give to foreign businessmen.
But his motivations talk also revealed the dark side of our nation:
- We have a huge deficit in governance capacity.
- We have a huge deficit in government—business negotiation.
- We have left our politicians play the role of business negotiators for our natural resources even when they are heavily incapacitated to do so.
That Anil Agarwal was meeting the president and taken to Parliament instead of the Ministry of Finance or ZDA which is in charge with investment promotion shows just how archaic our governance system is: The president is all, and all is the president. He is the all-knowing politician. Lawyer. Businessman. Policeman. Statesman. etc.
[pullquote]many young businessmen may be on their way to Zambia now, to ‘take chances’ with the opportunities in Zambia, and enjoy the VVIP treatment we give to foreign businessmen.[/pullquote]
That aside, however, all those condemning Anil Agarwal and his KCM, including the author, let us remind ourselves that when Anil Agarwal brought the $25million and gave it to Mwanawasa and his government in exchange for the KCM mine, he did so not because he loved Zambia (He did, however, love the VVIP treatment he received at the airport!), not because he loved us. Not because he loved our sun, our tourist attractions, or our mines. No. He did so because he wanted to make money. He wanted to make the greatest profit within the shortest possible time at the least cost possible. And our government just provided the opportunity to do so.
But what can be done? We have heard time and again how our politicians, civil society, trade unions etc. say that Zambia is not getting the best share from its mineral resources. Agreed, that is true. But is that all we can do? Complain and then carry on as if all is well? No.
Firstly, let us understand something. Government can participate in the mining sector in a variety of ways:
- Manage the resource on behalf of the population—State Owned Mines(The Kaunda way)
- Impose and administer the general tax regime—No participation at all(USA, Canada)
- Take equity positions in some, or all, mining operations—Semi-participation(e.g., Debswana in Botswana)
- Use state enterprises as operating companies—ZCCM, ZIMCO(similar to (1) above)
The nature of the participation will have a revenue implication for government. In the case of Zambia, it is a mixture of (2) and (4) where the government taxes the mines but still hold a minority share through ZCCM-Investment Holdings, which falls under the Investments and Debt Management Department of the Ministry of Finance—Headed by Alexander Bwalya Chikwanda.
Why revenue captured from copper does not accrue to Zambia
Prior to privatisation, the mines where government properties, and the tax regime that applied should be differentiated from one that ought to apply if the mine is foreign owned. Post privatisation, however, the Mineral Fiscal regime has not been buoyant enough to capture the new changes in ownership and the subsequent revenues generated under foreign ownership (Tax buoyancy is an indicator to measure efficiency and responsiveness of revenue mobilization to changes in output in the economy).
Now that the mines are owned by foreign companies which are mostly registered abroad in tax havens, the only way the government and the nation can benefit from the mines is to carefully craft a mineral tax policy that will maintain and attract investment in the mining sector while generating sufficient revenue for the country.
The high GDP contribution from the mining sector should be understood clearly—revenues captured from Copper Mining DO NOT ACCRUE TO Zambia! Not at all. Only on paper when we calculate GDP figures and growth. What accrues to Zambia are the taxes and royalties and the PAYE that mining employees remit to ZRA.
Imagine you own a farm, and you sublet part of it to a Zimbabwean farmer. When he has a bumper harvest and exports his maize to South Africa and banks the revenues in Zimbabwe, would you say your farm is doing well?
Would you tell your children that we are now doing well because our land is producing more maize? Only if you are stupid, of course! The only way you can gain from the harvest is if the farmer pays well his dues. And that is what we need to do with our copper.
What we can do
What we have to do, and this has been proposed many times since privatisation, is that we devise a clear and transparent Mineral tax system and enhance the capacity in ZRA to effectively monitor Mineral output on which tax will be imposed. In fact, since tax is just a proportion of revenues (Revenue = Price x Output), and since Price is set at the London Metal Exchange and is known to everyone, our government’s role is simplified: Just monitor output! Unfortunately, our ZRA has for a long time been unable to do this, and has instead relied on mining companies to report their output to ZRA, after which a tax is calculated. Now this is clearly administratively convenient and a highly inefficient way to govern our ever depleting resources, and has allowed billions of dollars to be shipped out of the country.
The mines can afford the best tax lawyers and highly trained and highly paid accountants and economists, and these, when matched with ours at the negotiating table, we end up with the Anil Agarwal deal. There is need to deliberately train, even at high cost, Zambians to be experts in mineral policy formulation and taxation at the ZRA and Ministry of Finance, and not entirely rely on the WB or the IMF (which is not the sole depository of knowledge as the Minister of Finance stated). We also need not fear to take time and discuss what exactly we want to achieve from our resources, and engage with the mines, taking a leaf from the exceptionality of Botswana in renegotiating with DeBeers to form Debswana. We do not have many mines that we can fail to monitor their activities, we have rather been too reluctant to initiate the obvious proposals to improve our benefits from the mines.
Borrowing Eurobond to build roads damaged by the mines
I think it is very absurd that a government would borrow money from the issuance of Eurobond to build roads on which mining firms who do not pay adequate taxes will drive their heavy loads on and destroy. But as the World Bank has said before: Mineral- dependent economies are often more prone to governance and corruption issues than non-mineral dependent economies. Also, negative consequences of macroeconomic mismanagement may be harsher in the context of mining than in a non-mining economy. The costs of macroeconomic mismanagement are high, given the often substantial fiscal revenue from mining, particularly when considering that these natural resources are non-renewable.
Unfortunately for Zambia, until we get the fiscal policy around our minerals right, the huge revenues from the mines will never benefit the Zambian people. What we ought to understand is that Zambia has been mining Copper for almost a hundred years now, and it will be mining Copper for the next 100 years or so. With that in mind, we should clearly have the incentive to get the taxes right now to benefit our future 100 years in time. As long as successive governments shun reforms, which must be consistent and adhered to, the likes of Anil Agarwal will always be there, and more will come for the harvest.
Conclusion
In conclusion, the PF have an enormous challenge and opportunity to redeem the country from the curse of abundance. The following would be worth considering:
• Enhance capacity in the ZRA and Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Mines to adequately monitor, evaluate and appropriately tax mineral exports. Adequately mandate ZCCM-IH to be active in the monitoring process with the ZRA.
• Enhance governance systems, organizational and institutional capacity in sectoral ministries, in the ministries of finance and planning and Ministry of Mines.
• Promoting mineral resources revenue stabilization and reducing fiscal imbalances through greater fiscal discipline, certain level of fiscal conservatism and increased capacity for forecasting and managing mineral revenues.
PF: Take chance! If you won’t take chance, nothing will happen. The mines won’t pay. Take chance now!
By Hjoe Moono