
THE latest publication of the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) has maintained its prediction that President Rupiah Banda and the ruling MMD will win the 2011 general elections.
The report, in the June 2011 issue obtained by the Times of Zambia yesterday, states that although the elections would be closely contested, an election victory for President Banda and the MMD remained the most likely outcome.
It notes that although the next few months would be dominated by political squabbling, the MMD, under President Banda, would maintain stability of the nation.
According to the report, the potential voters are disillusioned with the opposition’s enduring failure to offer a united front, and that the vote itself was expected to be free and fair.
It notes that Patriotic Front leader Michael Sata’s nationalistic rhetoric had also raised concern.
The report says that Zambia was not expected to face any external threats over the forecast election period and donors would continue with their budget support.
It says the Government would stick to a market-oriented agenda and would remain committed to macroeconomic stability.
The fiscal incentives on investment of more than US$500,000 in priority sectors were likely to be maintained and that would boost investment in manufacturing, tourism and energy.
The report further predicted an increased improvement to infrastructure as large investments would be made in power supply and roads through public-private partnerships.
Last month’s report also predicted that President Banda and the MMD would win the forthcoming elections based on nationwide support.
It noted that the MMD would benefit from the advantages of incumbency and its formidable electoral machinery.
The report added that President Banda emerged from the MMD national convention in a much stronger position.
“Recent trends have shown that the MMD still has a bigger rural support base of about 65 per cent of the total population,” the report said.
On policy agenda, the report said that would be underpinned by the Sixth National Development Plan and the medium-term expenditure framework 2011-13.
The report said fiscal policy in 2011-12 would be expansionary, with expenditure forecast to rise by an average of 17.2 per cent per year.
“The Government plans to implement a shift from public consumption to public investment, with the former projected to grow by 11 per cent on average and the latter by 38 per cent.”
[Times of Zambia]