
By Pemba Moyo
It will not be any surprising if President Rupiah Banda is re-elected into office next year with a fresh five-year mandate added to his CV, and there are more than enough reasons why that would not be a miracle.
Challenging a ruling party is one thing, and the opposition in Zambia manages to do that so well, but ousting the Movement for Multiparty Democracy (MMD) from office needs nothing short of the 1991 revolution that sent UNIP packing, which unfortunately is not within sight.
As we count down to the 2011 general elections, it might be interesting to look at just how the ruling party packages it’s campaign messages and also where the opposition gets it wrong.
Donations
Debating whether it is wrong or right for the President, Vice President, First Lady and ministers to make donations either to organisations or individuals citizens especially during campaign periods should be left to people who interpret the law better, but let’s look at the effects it bears.
Not so may headlines ago, First Lady Thandiwe Banda was in the news facing criticism and condemnation for donating money and other materials to some unknown women’s organisation in Mpulungu, Northern Zambia.
That was shortly after Mpulungu area member of parliament, the late Lameck Chibombamilimo was put to rest. Those with unfailing memories will recall that Thandiwe’s almsgiving was a replica of Vice-President George Kunda’s charity to a bunch of dancers during the campaigns for the Chitambo by-elections 2009. Pictures of his ‘brown envelop exercise’ are almost collecting dust now, but the results from both occasions are needless to mention.
There are so many other ways in which the ruling party, enjoying tightly massaged publicity from four well funded media institutions – including ZANIS, manages to gather momentum into the now all familiar ‘Operation: Rural vote’.
Just last week, President Banda made headlines with his K5million (about US$1,000) donation to a needy Kabompo couple that was seeking help to raise new born triplets.
“President Banda was sympathetic with the couple after reading about their plight in the press, read a statement signed by State House special assistant for press and public relations Dickson Jere.
And well, the Kabompo triplets surely had their Santa Clause wish granted, but how many triplets born in Zambia have had the luck of capturing the Head of State’s attention?
Of course the first family is blessed with twins Temwani and Dunia and probably understands better the challenges of multiple birth. But haven’t Siemens Siamese twins been born in this country and some died for lack of foreign specialist treatment? If the problem facing Emelda Chikamba of Chikamba Village in Kabompo is so touching, can’t there be a constitutional provision taking care of such natural situations?
Bumper harvest
Hats off to the Zambian farmers for producing about 2.8 million metric tonnes of Maize in the “Bumper Harvest” of last season. It is still very difficult however, to fully credit President Banda for the massive yield, unless the ministry of Agriculture supplied unprecedented farming inputs in 2008.
But a good rainy season met with standard agriculture policy can produce enough maize, some of which soaked by the way, to earn the ruling party positive governance points.
Mining
Almost every day, chiefs in Zambia have been praising President Banda for scoring positive economic strides and calling for his re-election next year, citing the single digit inflation among other economic indicators as his achievements MMD through President Banda claims that its administration has seen a record high foreign direct investment in the mines, not to mention job creations in the booming sector.
About two years ago, Zambia’s Copper was selling for less than US$3,000 per tonne, a situation that saw mining companies folding up and leaving. Today Copper has shot a record high price of over US$8,000 per tonne, would there be any connection between honourable Commerce minister Felix Mutati’s speeches to the investors and the London metal exchange rates?
But again, for a country like Zambia whose major export is copper, the rising global metal prices has a lot to write home about for a party in power.
Infrastructure
The people of Mongu are surely happy and deservingly so, for the Mongu – Kalabo road that has been a mock to their livelihoods for more than 10 years. Thanks to President Banda, K1.2 trillion has been earmarked to finally put a full stop to the old Western Province story.
The sad news is that a very tiny fraction of that amount is coming from Finance minister Situmbeko Musokotwane’s 2010 budget, the rest of it is coming from Exim Bank of China.
Due to demands of increased power supply to drive the growing economy, Energy minister Kenneth Konga last year signed a US$1.5billion agreement with the China-Africa Development Fund to construct a 700 megawatts Kafue gorge lower hydro power station. Over 2,000 jobs will be created.
Again the only problem is that government through ZESCO and the constructor Synohydro is expected to source only a third of the total budget while the US$1 billion remains a loan from China.
What may not be foreseen for these and numerous other projects at this stage is that President Banda may not be there when these loans will require servicing.
But systematically President Banda and his ministers are packaging their ‘progressive’ campaign messages in a way that suits the ears that have no preview to behind the scene realities.
TV advertising
To blind it all, President Banda has intensified his TV adverts on the national broadcaster ZNBC, which he uses to amplify his party’s manifesto and government achievement.
Even though these prime time adverts, which the opposition have not really questioned to expectation, have continued to run, it remains a mystery who is sponsoring them.
The packaging may suggest that ZNBC does not cash-in anything from the ruling party, and much as that may only be left to speculation, MMD is enjoying the fruits.
Yes President Banda has done exceptionally well, for a man who was hopped back into active politics from his productive farm ascending to the highest office. But to say that he is Zambia’s guardian angel may well be an overstatement.
The Pact
When all this is happening, you would expect the opposition joining hands to form a united front to bring about the much talked about change, but the reverse is the situation.
Firstly, No one really knows whether or not the Pact between the Patriotic Front (PF) and United Party for National Development (UPND) is still existent and from the look of things, it would seem that even members of either parties don’t know the answer.
From Fighting over the Pact presidency to constituency seats and finally giving each other cold shoulders, PF and UPND, the unbreakable Pact is without doubt staggering.
Even though UPND leader Hakainde Hichilema is consistently assuring Zambians that the Pact, which was born out of their demands, is still going strong, it would not be surprising if we learnt later that Mr. Hichilema was in fact singing lullabies to himself.
What happened to joint campaign rallies, what went wrong with joint press briefings and a joint manifesto for the Pact?
Let’s suppose Mr. Hichilema and his PF counterpart Michael Sata went flat out campaigning in Western, North Western, Eastern and Central Provinces, giving the same donations that the ruling party is giving and uprooting the resistance in the rural areas, where would it leave MMD?
This is not likely to happen, not soon. Instead Mr. Sata has gone his own route and so has Mr. Hichilema. It is simply to the MMD’s advantage that the two leaders are failing to realize that they would not win an election in their individual capacities.
Opposing the opposition
As though that were not enough, the other smaller opposition political parties have charged up against the bigger opposition parties, putting holes in their challenges to the ruling party.
Some are eager to nail the Pact completely out of existence while others like Humphrey Siulapwa’s New Generation Party have literary lost their vision, courting 74-year old President Banda as there 2011 hero.
FDD’s Edith Nawakwi Nawakwi is seemingly comfortable watching the political scenario from a respective distance, buoyant with her booming agriculture activities. You can only guess if she is confident of becoming Zambia’s first female president in 2011.
With due respect to a law abiding citizen, Brigadier General Godfrey Miyanda, his passion for leadership and relentless efforts to change mother Zambia is yielding too little.
New comers like Elias Chipimo’s National Restoration Party (NAREP) must have tested the waters by now and seen just how deep it runs. Challenges have not spared them as seen by their occasionally broken silence and change of party convention dates.
But even that has not stopped parties you would want to refer to as jokers like the Africa’s Democratic and Economic Development Organization -Zambia Must Change Now (ADEDO – ZAMUCANO) from coming on board.
With the reduced presidential election nomination fees, more parties are expected to mushroom between now and next year, adding to the pressure facing the countrie’s opposition.
Under such circumstances, it would be more of a miracle if President Banda lost the 2011 elections than if he won it.