
THE PF/UPND Pact is neither sustainable nor viable because of the ethnic and regional support bases mainly among the Bemba and Tonga speaking people, an opinion poll conducted by the Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD) has revealed.
The poll conducted in five provinces of Zambia indicates that because of the ethnic and regional dynamics, the pact alienates other non-Bemba and non-Tonga tribes and has the potential to induce an anti-Bemba and anti-Tonga political mobilisation.
More than 1,000 respondents in the five provinces were sampled, giving a confidence level of 95 per cent reliability, with a margin of error of +/-2.
The poll conducted last month over a two week period in Lusaka, Southern, Copperbelt, Luapula and Northern provinces interviewed 50 per cent women and 50 per cent men.
The tribal inclinations of the respondents could be seen in the choice of candidate between the two leaders.
PF president Michael Sata and UPND leader Hakainde Hichilema’s support was drawn almost exclusively from their ethnic bases.
Of the Bemba speaking people surveyed for the poll, 65 per cent preferred Mr Sata compared to 20 per cent for Mr Hichilema as leader of the pact and 2011 presidential candidate.
The same was true for Mr Hichilema among the Tonga speaking ethnic group interviewees.
Of the Tonga speaking people surveyed for the poll, 67 per cent preferred Mr Hichilema compared to 13 per cent for Mr Sata as leader of the pact and possible presidential candidate in the 2011 polls.
The poll also revealed that between the UPND and PF, the latter has its highest support in Luapula, at 60 per cent but has the least support in Southern Province, at 17 per cent.
On the other hand, UPND enjoys maximum support in Southern Province, at 50 per cent and the lowest in Northern Province, at six per cent.
“While these survey results cannot easily be generalised for the whole population, they are highly representative of national public opinion in as far as the PF/UPND pact is concerned and electoral preferences of the electorate,” the poll reveals.
It is also clear that whoever is eventually selected to be the Pact presidential candidate would not necessarily receive endorsement of the other party to the pact.
While the results indicate that the supporters of the pact would have no problem supporting the other candidate in an event that their preferred choice was not selected, ethnic and regional dynamics would militate against that.
The findings of the poll strongly suggest that both PF and UPND are highly dependent on an ethnic vote and their support bases may not favour a situation where their candidate was not selected.
In the event that their preferred candidate was not selected, they would then prefer to go it alone.
Age and education are not significant factors in the support for both PF and UPND. What seems to be more important are tribe or ethnicity.
The dominant position of the Bemba-speaking people in the five provinces partly explains PF’s electoral support.
It would be important to undertaken a nationwide survey to determine the electoral support of Mr Sata and PF on one hand and that of Mr Hichilema and UPND on the other hand.
The poll report concludes that the PF/UPND Pact is not sustainable or viable given its ethnic and regional support bases drawn mainly among the Bemba and Tonga-speaking people.
The Pact potential alienates other non-Bemba and non-Tonga tribes, thus inducing an anti-Bemba and anti-Tonga political mobilisation.
[ Times of Zambia ]