Sunday, March 3, 2024

Swapping One Pharaoh for Another: Why Egyptians Got it Wrong on Mubarak


By Elias Munshya wa Munshya

The so called revolution in Egypt has received lots of praise world-over. US President Barack Obama showed his political naivety by dumping Mubarak very quickly and calling the Tahrir Square revolution “a voice of democracy.” However, in this article I wish to argue that while the Egyptians were justified in their protests, they got it wrong when they insisted on the immediate resignation of President Mubarak. Egyptians should have given Mubarak the chance to leave office after September 2011. The forced resignation of Mubarak and the subsequent Army coup does not serve the interests of democracy as it is a potential replacement of one dictatorship with a worst one.

This revolution had very little preparation. When the people gathered in Tahrir Square, they had no plan and no blueprint for the shape of their post-Mubarak democracy. There is only one thing that united them—the end of the Mubarak regime. And that is where the danger lay. You cannot overthrow a dictatorship without plans for what you will do after the dictator is gone. It will be a very sad world, where people simply move to remove dictators without adequate democratic alternatives and preparation. Couldn’t it have been better for the Egyptians to first create some form of structure and agree on important policy and political matters before Mubarak went?

Modern history teaches us that the most enduring revolutions are the French Revolution and the American Revolution which took place centuries ago. These revolutions have gallantly stood the test of time due to the fact that the French as well the Americans had an idea about the kind of democracy and nation they were hoping to create. The greatest reason why America still stands to date is because the Americans not only fought against the British dictatorship but they had a plan in place of how they would govern themselves. They had it all well planned. In Egypt we see no such plans about democracy-uniting to simply remove Mubarak is not plan enough. Very seldom is democracy born out of a disorganised revolution.

On the other hand, the real hypocrite in the Mubarak debacle is still the United State of America. It is the US that made Mubarak and it is the US that kept him and propped him up in power. President Obama seemed to give the impression that America was on the side of the ordinary Egyptians protesting on the streets. But clearly, America reacted that way and dumped Mubarak because he was not serving their interests anymore. America will now work within any regime in Egypt to protect its interests in the region. These interests unfortunately may not be identical to the aspirations of all those people who were protesting in Cairo and Alexandria. America’s speed at disowning Mubarak is consistent with her foreign policy: prop-up African dictators and then dump them when they do not serve American interests. American sincerity in Egypt and in other parts of Africa should not just be seen when people protest the American aligned dictators. American sincerity in international politics should be judged by their alignment to the will of the people. However, from the lessons we learn from Mobutu Seseseko to the Mubarak regime America only serves her own interests. It was a disgrace for America to neglect Mubarak at a critical hour and let the Egyptian nation yield itself to an uncertain future. Or maybe the future is more certain for American interests. There should be something in it, for Americans to turn against Mubarak. Americans do not just do those things for nothing!

No doubt that when fighting a common enemy in Mubarak, Muslims as well as Copts became compatriots fighting a just cause. But the true measure of Egyptian unity does not lie with what people did in the past few weeks; but with whether after this so called revolution; Egyptians will be more tolerant to their fellow citizens who espouse a different faith. It is common knowledge that under Mubarak, the Christian Copts were marginalized. But there is no guarantee that with the Army in charge the life of the Christian minority in Egypt will get any easier. Besides, if the popularity of the Muslim Brotherhood is to be taken seriously, it means that the future of the Christian minority in Egypt is even in deeper jeopardy. United they stood in Tahrir, but divided they stand after Mubarak is gone.

Egypt should have learnt a lesson from the way Zambia handled its dictator in Kenneth Kaunda. When it was apparent that the people of Zambia were fed up with Kaunda’s dictatorship in 1986, the people of Zambia forced the president and the political regime to go for elections. Elections still remain the most formidable way to get rid of a dictatorship. Zambians allowed Kaunda to stay on in power, from 1986 to 1991, to organize elections and even accepted Kaunda’s candidature in those 1991 elections. The people spoke very emphatically through the ballot and the Kaunda regime was defeated. At least that is a transition that would inspire the tenets of democracy and not the uprising we saw in Egypt. For now the Egyptians would be wishing they had heeded Mubarak’s desire to stay on until September.

Between now and September, Mubarak could have started to work on elections and on transition. The ordinary Egyptians themselves could have also been given the opportunity to sharpen their manifestos and negotiate a just political future. But alas! They were overtaken by the desire to overthrow the Mubarak regime such that they were blinded to the kind of future that such actions would bring.

In the meantime, the Army is in charge. It has suspended the constitution, dissolved parliament and is ruling by decree. The same people in Tahrir Square who protested against Mubarak just last week still find themselves protesting against the Army dictatorship. The future is definitely uncertain. And if there is any lesson we can learn from Egypt it is the lesson of how we should not carry out a revolution. And in fact, it is not a revolution that which betrays the tenets of democracy. It cannot be a genuine revolution that only topples the top dictator but leaves all other structures that made up the dictatorial regime intact. The only way out of misery for Egyptians should have been the ballot in September. But between now and then, we may all surrender ourselves to the possibility that defeating Mubarak has made the Egyptians only swap one Pharaoh for another.


  1. Excellent piece as always ba Elias. I particularly agree with you on the point about American and French democracies having a plan of how they will govern themselves. One of the biggest problems with ‘democracy’ is that as Africans we often overstate it and make it a religion with no clue as to what is to be done once a particular stage is passed. Should the opposition in Zambia ever form Government, I am pretty sure they will spend the fist few weeks cleaning shop as did FTJ and Levy; simply because they did not anticipate being in power and more importantly, had no idea what they planned to do for Zambians. While Levy went past this, FTJ chose another route…

  2. Well written article though it is more of an assumption than an authority on the matter. The Muslim Brotherhood are not going to participate in the coming election and that renders the argument on the safety of the christian in Egypt void. Egypt is still a big player in the intra middle east political scheme of things, albeit USA dropped Mubarak like a hot potatoe because as a champoin of the tenents of democracy, its was imperative that they are seen to be in the fore front and champion the voice of the masses. The Egyptians had spoken very clearly. The wasnt a time when Barak ever showed immaturity when dealing with the issue unless of course I might have missed that period when that happened.

  3. Elias Munshya wa Munshya”
    Your analysis is understood but any comments shall be reserved for future use.Remember KK said “Stupid *****s,you are bringing thieves in suits”.He did not go due to corruption and the like but mostly due to higher prices in mealie meal and other issential commodities.UNIP left without any case to answer so they mingle among us. The question is Did we make any mistakes? Are we what we needed? Are we practicing true multiparty democracy?Are things changing as expected? Do we have any dreams at all? Do we easily get jobs?Are farmers doing the kinda shopping they used to do after bamper harvests.Are we improving our soils our land,our natural resources? People have eyes and stomachs to satisfy. One Zambia One Nation.Peace has to be attained in which ever the way…

  4. Elias Munshya wa Munshya”
    Your analysis is understood but any comments shall be reserved for future use.Remember KK said “Stupid *****s,you are bringing thieves in suits”.He did not go due to corruption and the like but mostly due to higher prices in mealie meal and other essential commodities.UNIP left without any case to answer so they mingle among us. The question is Did we make any mistakes? Are we what we needed? Are we practicing true multiparty democracy?Are things changing as expected? Do we have any dreams at all? Do we easily get jobs?Are farmers doing the kinda shopping they used to do after bamper harvests.Are we improving our soils our land,our natural resources? People have eyes and stomachs to satisfy. One Zambia One Nation.Peace has to be attained in which ever the way…

  5. it is not possible to attain true democracy in any African state, the best thing to do for any president elected either by majority or minority is to balance wealth distribution & people will not call for your head. but what is happening is that these presidents want to get the cake & eat it all, so we the people are getting angry. it is very easy for people to get fed up of a stubborn president, who only listens to the mafia like RB, and that is why despite having done numerous developmental projects,(most of which have benefited only the investors), Zambians want RB out. Munshya I know you are MMD so this is part of your attempt to prevent the Egypt saga to happen here, well it may not happen exactly the way it it did in Egypt, but its coming. Be warned

  6. atase iwe munshya wa munshya – are you suggesting the egyptians were stupid. mubarak was hell bent to trasfer power to his favorite. Him in power i can assure you elections could have been tempered. whether the army will be worse now but at least things could be done differently. new people in charge mean new breath. clear ba munshya

  7. Ecellent and to the point. I also agree, the best way to end a dictatorship is through a ballot so that even the structure that supported him / her goes. True, Egypty have just exchanged one Pharao for another.

  8. You know ,when people are treated as equals.Uprising cannot be an issue . I do not understand our situation Politically,judicially ,freedom of assembly and freedom of speach,education and health access,jobs,food security,fight against corruption,equal opportunities ,monitory and agric policies ,labour laws ,land aquisitions and liabilities ,prices of common commodities,equal share on the investiment opportunities ,culture promotions……Are people comfortable with such or need a change?Is change inavitable?Well the ballot shall speak.Fair?

  9. Overly simple analysis if you ask me……

    You accuse the US of being traitors to Mubarak…. Do you mean to say Obama should’ve stuck it out and publicly backed Mubarak against the popular will of the majority Egyptian povo?

    Do you know how that would’ve tarnished America’s already tainted image in that region? Truth be told Obama wanted Mubarak to stay but his hands were tied.

    At the same time holding democratic elections as you seem to suggest would most definitely have ushered the Brotherhood into power [or at the very least closer to the corridors of power] and consequently destabilized the middle east, do you now understand that quagmire?

    Fact is the Egyptian Military just like Mubarak are in US pockets, due to the $ billion aid it recieves from the US, so it’s…

  10. By the way elections between KK and the frog were held in 1987. KK was supposed to be in power up to 1993 but called for early multi party general elections in 1991 after repealing article 4 in the constitution. We know what happened he lost to FTJ. There was no under hands involved. The Egyptian case is different. Mubarack took over from Anwar Sadat in 1980/81 when he was assassinate over Israel issues. He was from the army and you expect real oppression from such a character. It was also said he wanted his on to take over from him. The reason might have been to hide his loot of more than $75billion; a much richer wealth than that of Gates and Buffet. Shame!!

  11. This article is biased towards dictators. Since 1952 the Egyptians have never been given a chance to decide who should rule them. They have been patient then this chance – the purpose of unit-comes along so why should they throw it away? You talk about the revolution of having no Blue Print, but you forget that even the French Revolution which you say has stood the test time. The French revolution was characterized by a myriad of problems due to having no other agenda other than storming of the Bastille the symbol of the French Monarch. As result there were executions of even those who had worked for the revolution. This period was known as the REIGN of TERROR, and then followed Napoleonic wars. After that France became stable. Egyptians would have made a grave mistake if they had allowed

  12. Munshya you are simply nuts!! The people are the masters, had got to a point when they said enough is enough, their tormentor should go!! No negotiations!!! so what orderliness are you talking about?? You are asking the “enslaved” to give the guy more time??? Which university taught you to analyse the way you do?? Reality DOES NOT RESIDE IN BOOKS OR HISTORY, IT JUST HAPPENS, THE PEOPLE OF THE DAY DECIDE THEIR FUTURE, not dictatorial behaviour as you suggest!! Egyptians said no!! If you want to continue singing Mubarak’s praises, am sure you are free to do so, it is a free world!!

  13. From @12
    Egyptians would have made a grave mistake if they had allowed Mubarak chance to stay on until September. This was going to give him chance to come up with a survival plan. Live and Let Die, this revolution will survive. After all the Army has given guarantees

  14. Democracy is not just about holding elections. We have to remember mubarak is 82 year old. Change was needed in Egypt. That arguement about planning life after Mubarak doe not hold any water. Any extra day under the thirty years of state of emergency was not justified. The people of Egypt did the right thing at the right time. Mr Munshya ya munshya , even Zambia needs to kick out the MMD as at yesterday. Any extra day in office by RB and his cronies is costing Zed untold damage. It will take zed generations to rebuild the nation

  15. Useless article, there is no coup in Egypt and dont mislead Zambians and Africa with your statement “Egypt should have learnt a lesson from the way Zambia handled its dictator in Kenneth Kaunda. When it was apparent that the people of Zambia were fed up with Kaunda’s dictatorship in 1986, the people of Zambia forced the president and the political regime to go for elections.” you are wrong KK was so humble to accommodate multipartism and so dont insult his humbleness. Learn to tell the truth not these lies in your article. The army in Egypt have put it very clear that they would want to see peaceful elections in september so dont cheat Africa that this is a coup you ELIAS.

  16. Munshya wa Munshya, ou should understand that the s.h.i.t has hit the fan. All arabic countries are experiencing the Egyptian revolution. Imagine one revolting against Gadaffi, it was like playing with the lions b.a.l.l.s. In short this is the wind of change that is affecting Arabic countries just as Southern African countries experienced in the 1990’s. It is not a matter of Mubarack handing over; time has come for him to go just as all dictators in the Islam world should go.

  17. Mmake Mpundu #5 yes it is not possible to attain true democracy in any African state, mainly because the political leadership doesn’t know that it has a duty to protect democracy. The leaders we have, think they have to protect their hold on power. Thats why we have Kibaki, Mugabe, Gbagbo clinging to power after they have lost elections. Rupiah Banda doesnt want to let go of State-owned media because he is not interested in freedom of expression, a democratic value. He just wants his views to be carried by ZNBC, Zambia Daily Mail, Times of Zambia ,ZANIS -By the number of media I have mentioned here you can see it is a monopolisation of the media by one ideology but does he care? Just listen to statements made by Rupiah Banda its about how the MMD will win the election.

  18. Such statements are not focussed on Democracy but on power. A Democrat like Barrack Obama will say “Yes We can..” meaning he is appealing to people that we can change a rule not telling them that come rain or what we will crash the opposition. That is war talk rather than democratic talk. Above all a democrat should be willing to accept he has lost an election.

  19. Mushya wa Mushya, your analysis far to even be quatre true. Egyptians are well organised and have a direction, they know what they want in life and had waited for this opportunity for over 30 years. I advise you to carry a well researched analysis and not a one sided you have done which is not even true. Muslim Brotherwood is a movement and not a party, and cannot even make quartre the population of Egypt, because majority of Egyptians are moderate and will always prefere a moderate president. Under Mubarak Egyptians were under a state of emergency, which was not the case with Kaunda, because under KK we were free to mix. Mubarak wanted to push in his son Gamar to presidential candidate in September like the way Saad of Syria did for the son, to which Egyptians could not accept.

  20. I take this as simply an academic exercise by the author. Egypt will never be the same. Whether it will be worse or better than before will depend on what the Egyptians do now and not what the americans or french did during their revolutions.I personally think revolution is too big a term to use to describe what has happened in Egypt. The Egyptians made it clear that what they wanted most is Mubarack to resign and they have achieved that.Let’s not underestimate this achievement because it’s not easy to force an african leader to resign from power.

  21. And I agree with Ubuntu #17. Egypt and the rest of North Africa were watching us in Southern Africa from the sidelines as we changed our governments in the early 90s. They were slow to learn from us. Right now I dont think we will do our revolution the North African way because we think we have the power to remove through the ballot.

  22. I do not agry with the opinion of the author of this article. Firstly Mubarak had to go immediately. The people were tired of his corruption and dictatorship and couldn’t stand it up until September. Mubarak is said to be the richest man on earth. His net worth is estimated to be around $70 billion thats like $23billion mor ethan Bill Gates. How did a public servant amass such wealth? You say Obama’s stance showed his political naivity but later in the article say America’s stance was consistant with their foreign policy??? If Obama is towing American policy how can he be naive? And Lastly the Military structure provides for all arms of government, they don’t need parliament. I believe they will organise Egypt well and the Egyptians did the right thing.

  23. So Mushya wa Mushya, if you are blind about Egypt, never write what you do not know and even understand. I stayed in Egypt and I know who these people are and their values. For them what matters is their Economy, to better their living standards, and they feel doing it yourself is better than letting someone do it for you because you are the one affected. There was too much corruption in Mubarak regime and Egyptians are not tolerant to such vices. They tried to stop Mubarak from pushing his son by appending signatures but it could not work, so this was the last resort. The army in Egypt are trained the American way, they are not allowed to shoot their nationals no matter what happens. Egyptians delivered at Tahriri and they are now back to their own businesses, what next is for other

  24. Elias Munshya wa Munshya, You need to understand the kind of character Mubarack was and is…give him a finger and he will take your arm. I think Munshya is proclaiming failure before the race has even began,

  25. Kamba Timvere you are so right, according to our leaders, democracy means holding onto power, and that is the cause of all these tensions we are now going through. they forget to work for the people but only concentrate on staying in power, not knowing that they are actually making enemies of the people they must serve.

  26. #cont. Egyptians delivered at Tahriri and they are now back to their own businesses, what next is for polititians. To them what mattered most was to remove the corrupt Mubarak and not to get positions is GRZ. If you look at all those who were surrounding Mubarak, they were all old chaps in their 60s, 70s and 80s who had no idea of how youths were affected by their corruption and mismanagement of resources. Egyptian youths are not connected to any party and are good at working underground to move things. Even the youth chief organiser of the protest through social networks, told the public in Egypt that no one should call him a hero because he was just doing what he felt was good for the majority. He said he wanted youths to be heard because they have been silenced for too long.

  27. The main difference with Arab youths and ours is that they are the ones moving the economy and independence from parents where you are able to support them is the most important thing, hence they see corruption from leaders as a hinderance to their efforts. They have different goes from us where the old are the ones moving the economy and the youths are just following behind. If you want to lead people in the Arab world, you have to be sensitive to the demands of the youths especially creating a favourable environment for them to do business, thats why in all Arab countries Internet is free for all. For them a leader should negotiate better deals for his people. A president is regarded as a chief negotiator for them, if things do not move well he is to blame.

  28. Elias, you toomuch of a pessmist and very afraid of change coz you still leave in the past. I dont understand what you are, political scientist, economist or simply a prophet of doom. It is true that the future of egypt is uncertain, but one thing is certain, that is things will never be the same again in egypt. History is in the making here and it need not to take some form of prescribed directions as you would like us to believe. The army rite from the inception of the revolution have been rather civil contrary to what most pipo expected and in the absence of established structures it stil gurantees some reasonable hope for the egyptians. Mubarak had simply outlived his usefullness necessitating the revolution, and he had to go the earliest.

  29. #33 the only president I know of was President Mwalimu Julius Nyerere of Tanzania. By 1984 he was already set to hand over his Chama Cha Mapinduzi party to Hasan Mwinyi. Atleast he saw his Communist ideologies did not work.

  30. You really believe Mubarak will release all the people he had put in jail and stop all the oppression using money and weapon funded by US. You cannot change your character within 3 months if you had enjoyed doing it for 30 years. A leader will be born and Egyptian need not worry. Nothing is impossible.

  31. cont;
    Even if Hosni continued until september in time for elections, it would not have guaranteed a real democratic transition given his background. Therefore either way the future would have still been uncertain. Munshya, you seem to be naive to the fact that even popular vote can still be manipulated in an environment where democratic structures are stil underdeveloped, egypt is no exception. So give history sum chance, wat you shud do is get yo pen and paper and note down events as they unfold. It is folly to compare the egyptian revolution to either the american or french revolution. Times have changed and so are the dictates.

  32. African leaders will always be because of selfishness, if you do not put preasure on them nothing will ever happen or move. Egyptians had the right to remove this man because they were not even allowed to challenge him through elections. All elections were just rubberstamps 99.9% Mubarak wins.

  33. Excellent piece Elias. I can only say that the reason the Egyptians wanted Mubarak to go NOW, was simply because of the fact that they could no longer trust the man to carry out an orderly transition without playing a hand in the elections and they did not want him to grub the cash and hide it. In that way, one could understand their fear. They knew Mubarak better than any of us. As for the Americans, Obama’s campaign was about how to bring about democratic change in these regimes without duplicity. That is where he differed from Mrs Clinton.

  34. #5 m’make mpundu
    You seem to be confusing ‘democracy; the freedom of a people to choose their government’ with poor economic policy. A country can be democratic and still not prosperous, like India or undemocratic and growing economically like China. Don’t confuse issues. Kwame Nkrumah said, ‘We want self determination, even if it means destroying ourselves.’

  35. As much as a lot of the issues highlighted in this article might be relevant, it is imperative to also understand that USA is still serving its interest by supporting the people’s revolution in Egypt. Never think that they don’t. Mubarak’s departure may have implications particularly on Israel as they would have lost a moderate Arab that used to support them. This may in the medium term facilitate in bring about peace to the middle east. There is a bigger picture to this than your article is extrapolating.

  36. Saint I know exactly what true democracy is, its our leaders that confuse it with power. we are not allowed to make decisions to govern our own countries, when someone talks against the govt, its translated as working against democracy and promoting anarchy! I know what Democracy is & I still maintain that its not possible to attain it with the current state of affairs.

  37. Thank you for this opinion and i do not agree that Barack Obama dumped this Mubarak.It is the rights of its people that want change only, this has nothing to do with external forces at all.So what the people of Egypt has said has been said and we wait for the right time to elections

  38. Breaking News! Julius Nyerere International airport in Dar es salaam closed, all flights cancelled several people dead following armory explosion. LT please dig deeper.

  39. shallow atricle. Letting Mubarake stay would have suited the USA just fine because he would have had time to completly kill of the moslem brotherhood, their main fear. Eygpt is a moslem country, Islam is a religion that lends a voice to the suffering and subjugated, especially if those subjugated are moslems. The egptian anger has being building up steadly at the oppression suffered by Palistians at the hands of the isrealis with support from the Americans. In understanding the geo-politik of the region, it helsp to know hat every thing, every statement the US does concerning the middle east is done to support Isreal. Period. The revolution was because of job, poverty frustrations, but the support by mubarak for the oppression of the Pals by isreal also is a big factor.

  40. As a rule of the thumb, most african leaders have so many “development projects to complete”. One should not expect them to easily abandon their “projects” just because of some “nuisance” called elections.

  41. This author is truly out of this world. What qualifies him to make such pronouncements? The vast majority of people in the world don’t even know where Zambia is, but Egypt they do…

  42. This analysis is very shallow and lacks facts and real reasons that led to the egyptian uprising. when you choose to write on such blog, please do your research well next time to avoid giving us half baked data.

  43. I have not finished your article but from the on set I can see that your think Egyptians should have waited till September for the dictator to step down,I do not agree with because that guy would have raised his iron hand on some of the organizers immediately after the demos and this would have been fatal for most of them.Dictators should never be given a chance because they can easily hand pick some one to succeed them and continue their dictatorial tendencies in the back ground.besides he should have known better that he had outlived his usefulness and needed to prepare some other young new vibrant minds to rule the state.

  44. A well written article.But i beg to differ with you on the part of America.Indeed america found themselves in a corner.The Americans never said directly that Mubarack should go.All they said was that he should listen to the will of the people and since the will of most Egyptians was for him to go, that was the best America could do.Insisting that he should stay could have been detrimental to Americans already distroyed foreign policy reputation.The same could have been true with the opposite.But hey man no hustle i know thats just your opinion which you are entitled to.

  45. Very useless article not worth spending the time to read. Mr. Elias, get a f**^!!%# life please and then you will be able to waste your own time

  46. I had similar doubts about the way this so called revolution was conducted. We do not even know that it will succeed and people dubbed it a model. How naive!

  47. There are no lessons to be learnt from zambia. in fact, it is the other way round. Democracy does not start and end with holding elections. It is what happens in between the elections that matters. As for the USA, they (and all western governments) will always serve their interests first and foremost. They have done this for centuries and are unlikely to abandon this policy anytime soon. The folly lies with those who choose to be propt up by them. It is being naive to expect a dictator to lose elections and accept that outcome gracefully. It is my belief that we have a short supply of KKs in Africa. The man was simply humble. Suggesting to give Mubarak more time is an insult to the egyptians. Munshya, it is too early to judge the success or failure of that uprising.

  48. Facing the hard truth by GS.
    The conclusion is a hard one. When one wants to bring down a dictatorship most effectively and with the least cost then one has four immediate tasks:
    • One must strengthen the oppressed population themselves
    in their determination, self-confidence, and resistance skills;
    • One must strengthen the independent social groups and institutions
    of the oppressed people;
    • One must create a powerful internal resistance force; and
    • One must develop a wise grand strategic plan for liberation
    and implement it skillfully.
    A liberation struggle is a time for self-reliance and internal
    strengthening of the struggle group. Those interested in Revolution in Zambia READ Gene Sharp( google) . The guy who wrote the above article does’t know anything.

  49. But who are u to think that all egypians are senseless. They have achieved their will. Who are u to judge them. Think about Zambia, how do u want to control others when in your country there is povertydue to senseless leaders? Malabishi

  50. There is no such thing as a planned revolution. Which Dictator in the world’s history has ever been good Munsha? only reason in Zambia our democracy is shady is because people in Zambia are passive. If only we could get the masses to open their eyes and lose the inferiority complex towards rich people. Viva Egyptians and I am Christian. Let people breathe.

  51. this article is academically right but practically wrong. zambia with1991 change was done by a political party, french revolution was to change a group system now in Egypt a dictator will never allow opponent to organise themselve to overthrow him. even allow dictator in office untill september you never know what can do before that.
    watch and see what is happening in uganda also

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