THE MMD will win this year’s presidential and general elections if the Patriotic Front (PF) and the United Party for National Development (UPND) participate in the polls separately, UPND chairman for international relations Clive Chirwa has said.
Professor Chirwa puts the MMD’s popularity surge at 38.1 percent and the PF-UPND pact’s collective performance at 19.34 percent. He advised the alliance to work “extremely hard”.
He warned that figures from the last 55 by-elections show that the MMD has an edge of about 50 percent over the pact, and urged the two parties to take his analysis seriously.
And the MMD has hailed Prof Chirwa’s advice to the pact partners as a true reflection of the current political reality in the country, and a confirmation of the ruling party’s strength.
In a letter addressed to PF president Michael Sata and his UPND counterpart Hakainde Hichilema dated February 15, 2011, Prof Chirwa told the pact not to ignore his figures “as they give a very clear outcome if it does not function to the ability expected by the people of Zambia.”
He said the figures are based on the results of the three parliamentary and 52 local government by-elections conducted between August 2009 and September 2010.
Prof Chirwa outlined the calculations that helped him arrive at the two figures.
“Taking into account these weightings, MMD has clocked 38.1 percent success, while UPND has 16.54 percent and PF 2.8 percent,” he said.
Prof Chirwa said the results do not mean UPND is now the favoured party over the PF.
“However, what these figures clearly show is that if we had to go it alone as PF or UPND, MMD will be voted into power yet again as our (pact) total resurgence is 19.34 percent, which is approximately half that of MMD (38.1 percent),” he said.
Prof Chirwa also expressed worry at the voter registration list of January this year.
“We are seeing a complex picture emerging, which tells us a simple message that requires the pact to work extremely hard in order to achieve the aspiration level the Zambian people are yelling for,” he said.
He discussed many other issues related to the pact in the letter, including proposals on how positions should be shared between the two partners.
MMD national chairman Michael Mabenga commended Prof Chirwa for telling the truth over the party’s strength.
“I am happy that Clive Chirwa has supported our assertions that the MMD is powerful and will beat both the PF and UPND even if they stand as a pact,” he said.
Mr Mabenga said it is good the information is coming from the pact’s own member and not from the MMD.
“Even if they stand as a pact, we are not shaken in any way. Even without us speaking, their own member has conceded that we are a powerful party and will win the elections. This is really good,” he said.
[Zambia Daily Mail]