UNIVERSITY of Zambia (UNZA) lecturer has said the analysis by the Zambia Congress of Trade Unions (ZCTU) that this year’s elections will be tightly contested by the Patriotic Front (PF) and the MMD is flawed because indicators on the ground are that the ruling party is headed for victory.
Mr Phineas Bbaala, a lecturer in the School of Political and Administrative Studies, said in Lusaka yesterday that the demise of the pact between the PF and the UPND had weakened the opposition parties.
“The PF was much stronger when they were in a pact. The PF is weaker now that they are alone. It is political naivety for anyone to think that the three-day riots in Mongu can sway the voting pattern of the Western Province. These riots were not in the entire province.
Most of the individuals that we are reading speaking from Western Province that PF has made inroads are individuals who cannot be trusted politically. These are people that have been jumping from one political party to another,” he said.
Mr Bbaala said the ZCTU analysis was also flawed because it only focused on by-elections won by the PF without taking into consideration those won by the MMD and the UPND.
He said going by the results of the recent by- elections, both parliamentary and local government, the MMD is set to win this year’s elections with ease.
Mr Bbaala said in the by-elections like in Mporokoso and Chifubu where the MMD had lost, indications were such that the ruling party was making serious inroads into the PF stronghold.
“The UPND and PF are likely to share votes in the opposition strongholds and MMD looks set to continue fishing from their ponds as indicated in the local government by-elections and even in the parliamentary by-elections.
When one takes a broader picture of the outlook of the by-elections, it is clear that the MMD is set to win this year’s elections,” he said.
Mr Bbaala also said the recent empowerment decision by the MMD on the Copperbelt was likely to advantage the ruling party during the polls.
“Definitely the decision by the Government to empower the people on the Copperbelt will benefit the MMD. This is testimony by what we see on television and what we are reading,” he said.
Over the weekend, Zambia Congress of Trade Unions secretary general Roy Mwaba said the analysis from ZCTU’s research committee revealed that it would be a close contest between the PF and MMD.
[Times of Zambia]
Indeed MMD hve already won. There wil b vote apathy in this election bcz pipo lukd up to the pact as a saviour. Nw since the pact is dead, RB is stil strong n is the bst among the 3 individuals. MMD WIL WIL WTH A LARGE LANDSLIDE BCZ IT stil strong around the country. 45% MMD, 30% pf. 20% UPND. 5 % Others.:-\”
The MMD will win with ease after the pact failed to work.PF and UPND are a let down to democracy in zambia because what they have done is unfair to the people of zambia who had hopes of changing the government this year.Its MMD again to rule for the next 5 years even 10 years to come because our opposition is not united.So ba Sata naba HH dont even raise issues of vote rigging when RB wins because you have already allowed RB to win without any problems at all.
When UPND wins a by-election it is not growing in support and votes BUT when MMD wins a by-election it is a growing sign in support and votes.
When UPND receives defections from PF/MMD it is not news and it is not true BUT when stage managed defections by corruption and bribery are made as from UPND it is news and true.
EVEN DOCTORS ARE NOT BENEFITING FROM THEIR HARD EARNED DOCTORATES THEY HAVE TO SUPPLEMENT THEIR INCOME BY BEING HIRED OR BE SEEN/HEARD TO SUPPORT THE MMD/GRZ.
LATE MAZOKA-m.h.s.r.i.p.had no propaganda media/machinery BUT he won and died as a PRESIDENT in the eyes of GOD.
HH has no propaganda media/machinery BUT he will win STILL like it happened to MAZOKA his PRESIDENCY will be stolen.
MARK MY WORD WHILE WATCHING THE SPACE.
ha ha.what inroads is he talkin about?mporokoso was an mmd seat!he is right about readin too much into by elections but mmd has been losin seats meanin they are losin ground,if not to pf then to upnd eg chilanga,solwezi central and the annulled mufumbwe poll.how a lecturer who probably made his analysis from reading the biased zambian media (i mean both the post and the public media)can so easily rubbish the analysis of an organisation that has grassroots structures nationwide is baffling.zctu analysis ok.
I cannot agree more with Mr Baala’s analyis. It is clear to every sensible Zambian that PF is not an alternative to MMD. To hope that the disturbances in Mongu, which were largely due to unrully people not adhering to lawful directives not to assemble will swing the votes from MMD to PF is not only naivity but fool!shness as well. PF has not told the people of Western Province what they will do for them, that MMD has not done or is not doing. All they are doing through their Vuvuzela is just spread hatred and evoke people’s emotions and hope that the people will vote them. Id!iots. We all know that expecting anything sensible from Sata and Mmembe is expecting too much.
You are foolish what has MMD Government done in Western province all we are hearing is pipo dying everyday in Mongu do u think that we are happy with all these deaths. We are going to change the government this year i ve been to western province and i ve heard pipo’s comments. Zwa MMD
In as much as Mr Phineas Bbaala has made some correct observations about the MMD he has coveniently ommitted the UPND factor(I hope this wasn’t deliberately ommitted by the Times reporter as is the case in most news items). Based on the results of recent bye elections it is clear that UPND is making major in-roads into MMD territory especially in Lusaka, Central, North Western and in parts of Western and C/B rural. PF will also fish into MMD ponds in E/P and parts of C/P, W/P and N/P. This will disadvantage MMD, however, they will compensate for their loss by fishing off the PF ponds in Luapula, C/B and Lusaka. That in a way leaves the race open with MMD and PF as major contenders due to regional voting but with UPND as the supprise wild card as suggested by Mwaba.
mmd is not a factor in LP, NP, CB and CP unless….. He is just a frustrated lecture
Just a reminder that most of the loses that MMD suffered during the bye-elections were when the Pact was in place. Just in case we get carried away and forget this factor….
#2
1) THE GODLY TRUTH IS THAT SATA/PF were more concerned in swallowing up UPND from the face of Zambian multiparty democracy as a means of getting to state house to compensate SATA’s being left out by CHILUBA for Late Mwanawasa -m.h.s.r.i.p.
2) HH/UPND were almost pleading for dialogue over the pact issues with SATA/PF but POST,KABIMBA AND GUY SCOT kept on bullying HH/UPND instead of allowing un-corrupted and not hate views to be tabled amicably.
3) SATA by his own mind(wrong )and hand destroyed the pact by rubbishing HH/UPND.
CHERISH TRUTH NOT FALSEHOOD THROUGH HATE AGENTS AND MEDIA.
ZCTU is correct and Mr.Bbala is wrong.
MMD’s winning of some parliamentary and local government bye-elections doesn’t mean that they are popular because the whole cabinet and MMD nec could camp there and spend alot of money bribing voters.They could start road constructions and many other things to blindfold voters that they were working. The houses donation on the copperbelt only benefited 3000 people and there is no garantee that beneficiaries will vote for MMD.
PF will win because people want change and it has made inroads in Eastern and Western provinces. Those who want change know that UPND is there to split votes and will vote for PF.
It is not surprising that Mwaba and Bbaala hav decided to give a biased analysis ignoring the UPND factor bcoz mwaba is pf cadre while Bbaala is MMD. how many parliamentary seats has the pf grabbed from MMD and how many has upnd grabbed from MMD? if am not mistaken, pf has just grabed one seat,the mporokoso one while the others it has retained. UPND has grabed solwezi central,mufumbwe and chilanga. therefore,if u want to use by-elections as your point of measure,then simple arithmetic shows upnd gaining ground in mmd stronghold.ignore this fact at your own peril
you have also given a bised analysis. You do not want to mention that they won because PF supported them
i dont think i agree with what this Bbaala is saying. I conqure with the ZCTU analysis. i wish RB had eyes to see what is happening on the ground but alas he doesnt have. i dont know where this man is getting his facts.It is so confusing just this morning at Radio Phoenix 6:45 hrs news it was read that the opinion polls conducted by the UNZA Research centre has indicated that Sata is leading RB.And to be truthfull that is wat is happening on the ground.Sata has gained grounds and please do not be cheated those houses given out on the CB will not change any voting pattern u think a Zambian is so Dull that he can easily be bought off so easily.Wait and see u will come and tell me
Cont…from #9
In a general election,cabinet and MMD nec will not be camping in one place and will not spend the same amount of money on one constituency as they did during bye elections.They will be scattered. People will vote on the mob psychology of wanting change and PF is better positioned for that change as small tribal UPND is suffering from dections to PF and MMD.
IT IS TRUE IN TERMS OF ENJOYING PERSONAL TO HOLDER propaganda campaign print and electronic media that the race is between PF(POST) and MMD(ZNBC,TIMES,DAILY).
On the ground and truth the winning party will come from UPND or MMD or PF.
REMEMBER THE FDD AND MMD wild COVERAGE and BLACKING OUT UPND.Without 3days Luapula criminal voting extension period,WHO WON? Mazoka/UPND won.
Academic Warrior, why are you so obssesed with tribe? come on,get a life bcoz tribe wil not take you anywhre.you are just alone so far in the chat room who is thinking with a tribe,check all the comments and tell me am lying.
#11 Smart Observer,
Sir,thumbs up to you!! You are really alive to what is obtaining on the ground and your observations are correct.
THIS LECTURER IS AN MMD CADRE.I ACTUALLY KNOW HIM. HOW CAN MMD BE MAKING INROADS WHEN THEY HAVE LOST MOST OF THEIR SEATS TO THE OPPOSITION? TTHIS GUY IS A JOKER. ANY WAY TIMES OF ZAMBIA WILL NEVER BE OBJECTIVE JST LIKE THIS TRASH LT WHICH IS BIASED TOWARDS THE MMD.
Doc Bbaala..what has got into your head..?MMD is the only party growing..?think outside the box!
He is NOT a Doctor.
#9,12.Academic warrior.
Upgrade your debating/blogging to the level of REASON,WIISDOM,LOVE AND GODLY and avoid limiting your reasoning capacity to TRIBAL because it does not benefit anyone ,even yourself.
HOWEVER ,IF YOU ARE THE ONE CHOSEN BY SATAN THE DEVIL TO BETRAY ZAMBIANS FROM GOD’S PURPOSE-LOVE,LIKE JUDAS YOU WILL NOT SEE AND PERCEIVE WISDOM IN MY ADVISE JUST LIKE JUDAS DID BECAUSE HE WAS A SEALED AGENT OF THE DEVIL TO INJURE GO’S PEOPLE.
Bbaala has lost it and is thinking with his mouth instead of his head! it is very clear for all to see that the MMD lost more bye-elections during this period in it’s entire history and how xcan one say they are doing well! and whatever made you think PF was much stronger when it was in a pact with UPND? Ha – musankwa ulabenja maningi..blue white lies banene.. ignore and rubbish the ZCTU at your own peril.
BA SATA, BA HH,we shall see u next year, this was un opportunity to show leadership to bring the whole nation together ( no reginal voting) but to me because of their selfishness am prety sure this will bring RUPIAH back .Mind u,death of the pact might even have deregistered some voters.If MMD managed to dismantle the unity of Zambians by destroying the PACT (25 billion kwacha) how about PF and UPND when they are standing on separete tickets? this makes me fill and think MMD can win this years election unless PF will manage to win WP
@to all upnd supporters.
I will give you this,I xpect hh to make a massive jump from the 18% he got last time.will it be enuf to overhaul sata and rb who were at 38% and 40% each? dont know,doubt it.hh will be the king maker though.because any improvement he makes will be at sata and rb’s expense.its all about who will leak more votes at his improvement.
MMD will win whether opposition likes it or not,the only hope for the zambian pipo,the pact is dead.MMD will come first,PF second and UPND third.mark my word.
Depending on our political stripes we’ll swallow greedily any lie that flatters us,but we’ll sip only little by little a truth we find unnerving.Thats what this is all about.
MMD cant win this election. If they know that it will be easy for them to win this year’s election. Let them tell RB to announce the election date now.
If UPND can strive to win the seats they intended to and likewise PF, the the split has changed nothing. The only change in fortunes is that UPND is now campagning for MMD. Zambians should see what UPND are made of. One minute they are in a coalition with an opposition party the next they are with the ruling party. And they say HH has intergrity
Please update me is PANJI PF or he is also like MAGANDE trying to make a movement so that he can then form a party and then split the 2011 votes
#7. I agree with u, most of the bye elections UPND won PF did not fill its candidates and vis versa. Now let’s imagine had UPND fild its candidate in mporokoso with that difernce PF won with. UPND/PF pact was realy a threat to MMD but with that brekup the ruling party is wining and we shud not run away frm that fact.
It will be tough but the race is between PF and MMD and UPND will be the decider because they will have taken alot from PF as their former alliance mate
The contest is between PF and MMD because UPND is just going to split the Votes.The PF has made inroads in Western Province, Eastern Province,Central and Southern Provinces.MMD will ignore this at their own peril.MMD is scared to announce the date of election reason being? they realize that the table are upside down PF and SATA are very popular now than ever before.
This year s elections will have nothing to change as far as running of the economy is concerned alot of UNIP gimicks
The copperbelt has recorded more than 250,000 newly registered voters,can anyone boldly declare the majority will vote for the mmd??Look,people on the cb are exposed and wont be hoodwinked by the mmd’s tactics of giving out houses.The 2nd highest 4 registered voters is lusaka,northern,eastern then luapula.Under PVT,mmd will lose,pf stood independently & lost by 35,000 in 2008..Pf has a very good chance of overhauling the mmd,because they are still very popular!!
Sorry ba SATANA u re headin a 4th loss, which way 4ward cobra re u goin to continue spitin at RB or u wil b thinkin of tryin another loss in 2016. Ha ha ha ha ha ke ke ke ke. RB NAFUTI NAFUTI chabe
TRUE!!!! RB IS GOING THRU.
LET RUPI DECLARE THE ELECTION DATE. WILL SORT THE MMD OUT. VIVA PFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFF
Wait for another UNZA lecturer to give us his/her analysis, which will be the very opposite of Bbaala’s analysis.
One can actually say that the ZCTU played it safely by not declaring who the winner will be.
We all know that the demise of the pact blew away any chances of removing MMD from power. This is well known by both Mr Sata and Mr Hichilema. What is worring is that the opposition is preparing the people not to accept any results other than the MMD losing or else the elections would rigged. This is dangerous for our country which has enjoyed peace all these years. The hatrage being potrayed by the Post, some Catholic priests and some disgruntled politicians ‘violently’ against the President is scary. Zambians open your eyes. A seed of hatrage is being planted in the hearts of peace loving Zambia. This is a recipe for a civil war. Lets be careful, all politicians have their personal interests first before ours. Vote wisely by not voting the evil one into power. The choice is ours.
#16, one does not need to be an MMD cadre to predict that the MMD is headed for victory. Our student research is also pointing into that direction.
#18 The Truth Pains.
As your name implies,you dont want to be told the truth. The fact that UPND is a tribal party and that it is no longer a factor in politics cannot be disputed. Your own chiefs in Southern Province are MMD cadres and they want UPND to be swallowed by MMD.
You are talking about love and wisdom in debating BUT the language you have used doesnt show that you have those virtues.
I WOULD RATHER ARGUE WITH MMD SUPPORTED AND NOT YOU FROM SMALL TRIBAL PARTY WHICH HAS NO MEDIA FOR THEIR CAMPAIGNS. KINDLY ARGUE WITH SIULAPWA’S SUPPORTER BECAUSE IM TOO SENIOR FOR PEOPLE FROM SMALL CLUBS. THANK YOU.
i hop not many pipo on ths blogg suffer from heart problems bcoz they may collapse as results start coming for the elections to knw tht the EXPEIRED COBRA is no where near state house
PF is very likely to win ( 99% ) in the homopost news paper where Sata is extremely popular.
Viva PF……any stupid person will vote MMD contributing to already worsening African type of politics where a ruling party or President want to rule for longer than required. Zambians wake up MMD has ruled us for 20 years what else do you want to have them prove they will do for us…change is a must….have you seen all the uprising in Africa….I had voted for MMD but we are tired of them……ploughing at the same land expecting better harvest is sickening please…Viva PF viva Sata
Hey!! what a lecturer,he is analizing issues based on what he sees on znbc.He may have struggled so much to become a lecturer,how can he be so cheap so simplistic or may mmd cadre.we expect more sense and logic from a university lecturer.
The Pa Fwaka must be high on chamba to think that they can win the polls without the help of another party .One thing is sure they cannot win in Western,Southern,N/west,copperbelt rural,central rural and Eastern .In these provinces UPND and MMD will be exchanging to be no1 or 2, were as the PF will be 3rd.
Then in PF areas MMD will be a close 2nd then the law of averages will kick in,this is why rhe pact would have canceled out any gains by MMD. THE DEMISE OF THE PACT IS BEACAUSE OF THE POST. JUST LOOK AT THE HEADLINES THEY PUBLISHED.
“PF CAN WIN ELECTIONS ALONE”
They also did not want UPND as a pact partner they covered UPND NEGATIVELY .
As a result of the death of the pact MMD will win these elections despite the intense propaganda from the POST coz of split opposition votes.
Realistically speaking, it will be a very big waste of time to cast a vote for HH or indeed any other oppozition prezidential candidate other than SATA. The alternative logic iz to vote for RB. I know my learned UPND loyalists friendz will call me every name in the book, but that won’t change the truth and reality about the 2011 elexionz. Az the situation standz, only SATA haz what it takes to win against RB. Either take a chance with SATA, or RB continuez, no two wayz about it!
#38.
Thank you for your response.I don’t need to tell you that the chiefs you are referring to are not UPND spokes people,but as a democrat I respect their views even if they are, in my view ,selfish for the silver pieces they received or were promissed AND I respect your view on TRIBAL TASTY but I still repeat-it is not a virtue either for you to ride on it and propagate it .The truth does not necessarily need to be told in your or my desired style or emotions but it must be told.
TO SHOW HIGH QUALITY REASONIG LET US NOT USE TRIBAL THOUGHTS,UNLESS WE ARE SEALED TO SIN LIKE JUDAS I REPEAT.
#38 and 45
stop debating on tribal please leave above the 21st centuary leave as graduates not as duellers it feels filthy hearing people at this point in time as if they leave on an island where they can be only one tribe even though umust not Zambians (from congo)
iwe ka academic warrior u have a ka small brain,the idea that upnd is tribal its an old boring song without any substance,debate real issues,in fact upnd is more diversely acceptable than pf.other than wining in the south p,they win in west,north west,central and lusaka,even eastern if they do not field a candidate upnd is more likely to win there than pf.PF only wins in bemba areas,and bembas are so many,do a survey most of the people running the streets in urban areas like lsk are them.YOU can scream your lungs out that upnd is tribal but the truth is that you are worse.
Strange reasoning from PF supporters as usual, if you think Sata is the only one who can beat MMD why are you worried about vote splitting from UPND? You are, therefore, admitting the truth that PF haven’t got the numbers to beat MMD on it’s own. This explains your desperation in trying to trick UPND voters to help you out. Sorry mates, this is 2011 and it’s each one for himself! We will talk about pacts after the elections because we KNOW the truth is the three major parties will get a third of the votes each. This will reflect the reality on the ground and there is no doubt that this favours MMD since as a ruling party they will rig the elections to win. Good news is this will enable geniune alliances in the future. So to UPND supporters please keep the belief, vote for real…
@#47 mundia
Well said, I totally agree with you!
Hey, Phineas so that is where you are hiding your a/s/s in God forsaken Zambalaland! Stop pretending that you are an academician and political analyst you rascal. We of the cartoon world dont sink so low! You are committing blasphemy! We will hang you by your rugby balls when you return! Your ex-dear friend; Ferb.
“The death of another Barotse detainee brings tears and questions to many Zambians.
The answers can only be given by the police and the Human Rights Commision.
The police should do us justice by telling us what really happened in detention; otherwise, we will be made to speculate.”
Are these the developmental projects which are going on in western province. We are changing the government and we are registered voters
Check how the PF presidential candidate has been progressing since he came in the political arena? 2001—-2006—-2008—-and now 2011 we shall see!!! for sure with these blunders our president has made, mongu, mansa killings and we don’t know where next, for sure PF can catch up… you will prove right…
When is Sata having the next heart -attack? I cant wait 4 that blessing
INDEED MMD CAN WIN BUT NOT WITH A LARGE MARGIN AND THE LECTURER IS WRONG TO SAY WITH EASE. BUT HE IS RIGHT TO SAY THE DEATH OF THE PACT WILL IMPACT HEAVILY ON THE OPPOSITION. I FIND THE ANALYSIS OF THE SUPPOSED LEARNED LECTURER FLAWED AND LACKING IN THE HIGH CALIBER MERIT HE IS SUPPOSED TO OFFER US. WITH NO PERSONAL GAIN OR INTENTIONS, THE FACTOR OF INCUMBENCY AND RESOURCES AT HIS DISPOSAL, RUPIAH JUST ONLY JUST HAS AN EDGE OVER SATA. BUT ALL THINGS AT PAR, HE STANDS VERY LITTLE CHANCE TO A SEASONED POLITICIAN LIKE SATA. AT THE END OF THE DAY, I FEEL SAFER WITH RB THAN SATA, THOUGH I THINK IN THIS TIME AND AGE, WE DESERVE BETTER.
What is this “Mr Bbaala” somebody talking about? You can smell from his breath that he is UPND. It is common knowledge that the elections will basically be between MMD and PF. Even my 6 year old son knows that. By the way, does the UNZA Political science dept still have any credibility with peristent closures of the institutions and inability to guide the county’s politcal platform credibly?? Mr Bbaala, why not take off one “b” from your name before we listen to you. Shaaaa!!!
pipo we claim to be logical. cud pipo pliz throw about numbers and giv credible scenarios for their predictions.not this mindless babbling like the dumb lecturer.
REAL CHANGE,IF YOU ARE REALISTIC AND SENSIBLE IS VOTING FOR SOME ONE RATHER THAN RUPI OR SATA AND THAT PERSON IS HH BECUASE AMONG THE YOUNGER LEADERS IN THIS COUNTRY HE HAS SHOWN TO BE FOCUSED,STEADFAST AND NOT EASILY BOUGHT,DESPITE MANY OFFERS HE HAS DEMONSTRATED INTEGRITY AND TURNED ALL DOWN,COMPARE HIM TO OTHER YOUNG POLITICIANS LIKE NEVERS MUMBA-ABANDONED HIS PARTY FOR A JOB IN MMD-SAKWIBA SIKOTA CANT ORGANIZE HIS PARTY BUT JUST CAMPAIGNS FOR RUPIA,SIULAPWA IS NOT A FACTOR-ALL OF THESE ARE BOOTLICKERS,LACK OPPOSITION POLITICS STAMINA AND ARE JUST FOR THEIR BELLIES.
IF YOU ARE A TRIBALIST AND YOU CANT VOTE FOR HH BETTER VOTE FOR RUPI SO THAT WE HAVE AT LEAST 5 MORE YEARS OF AN OLD MAN THAN SATA AND HAVE 10 MORE .
Some pipo want change and others don’t want. We should not compare 91 elections with 2011 in 90’s things bcame so bad for mother ZED that u wud find 1 out of 100 suportin the ruling unlike 2day where u can see developmnt on track. There is need for the oposition to pull up their stogas coz it dosnt seem to b a smooth run 4 them.
Please note Bbala is not a PHD Holder. He is a Masters degree holder of 2007. His analysis is flawed.
If ba RB na ba Sata where to lose thiz elections ba Sata can cry the loudest bcoz he has tried. But 1important thing we re not supoz to 4get about is that God has a plan 4 each 1 of us.
PF cadres should also start reasoning without just saying pf is winning ..they don’t know how to articulate issues but total insulting..that’s why your leader is standing for the last time..you can’t even explain your manifesto you tribal maggots!
Vivaaaaa HH. You might not make it now but eventually you will make it. These old men are wearing out and some of them might die of heart attack when they lose their final chance. Vivaaaaaaaa HH
Tactical voting means voting for UPND if you are young or a UPND supporter. This will result in a more balanced parliament were no single party can dictator issues without consulting others. This is the biggest problem we have had in Zambia, were the ruling party bulldozes it’s way on any major issues including the constitution. Don’t be deceived by the ‘Sata is a man of action and will do so and so..’ or ‘ to stop Sata and continue development voteRB..’ nonsense. Sata and Rupia are both the same and think alike. They are like two old identical twins fighting for a cob of maize. The were both in UNIP and MMD. They are both close to Chiluba. They are both dictators and like exploiting tribal politics to their advantage. Vote wisely, vote HH for real change!!!
Sata and HH have already lost this years election and for Sata, he is completely finished considering the age.
#47 -i totally agree that if there is a tribal party in these elections it’s the Pa Fwaka who only win in the bemba dominated areas and nowhere else.
Look UPND has won in Lusaka,N/W ,even come 2nd to MMD in local govt bye election in kafulafuta/masaiti SO who is the tribal one NOW.
PF cannot win in the following provinces despite the POST’s best effort :
1.EAST-MMD,UPND,PF
2.WEST-UPND,ADD,MMD,PF
3.N/W-UPND,MMD,PF
4.CENT-MMD,PF,UPND
5.LUSAKA-PF,MMD,UPND
6.SOUTH-UPND,MMD,PF
7.LUAPULA-PF
8.NORTH-MMD,PF,UPND
which are the most populated provinces.
1.C/B,LSK,SOUTH,NORTH,EAST ,CENTRAL -demographics will play a big part in these elections.
a)The PF STRATEGISTS always ignore these facts ,they think that everyone reads the POST.
b)To win the elections every vote counts even those…
Tell me you are not Tonga.It is the Tongas in UPND that are an ass not neccessarilly UPND so much so that non Tonga UPND memebers are second class and they cant deny it if they are honest.HH is a good fella but the Tongas behave like they own him to the irritation the some of us
Factual and unbiased
1 East-MMD, PF, UPND 2. West-PF, UPND, MMD 3. Central-PF, MMD, UNPND
#61,are declaring bembas as maggots??I guess thats the proper way to articulate issues!!U are filled with so much hatred,are you a christian??May God deliver you.Im praying for your lost soul.
Amen.thats the spirit
If you want your RB to continue staying in state house let him give all Zambians free houses and then refund those who paid full amounts on the Copperbelt.
What beats me is how any sane mind can describe a vote for Sata as a vote for change. What change? You can only mean change in your personal fortunes not for all of us, as I have seen in most PF campaigners.
PF, please don’t try to make us forget that you have an outstanding national convention, oh and a Cbelt provincial one before that. If the change that you are falsely preaching includes democracy, tolerance and development (NOT dictatorship), the people of Zambia can only judge you via the convention. In the absence of that proof, we the people of Zambia have to be insane to consider PF as an alternative government.
For example, how can PF give us a better constitution which will stand the test of time and be acceptable to all Zambians when they cannot hold internal elections? If PF does not want to hold internal elections, it doesn’t take rocket science to see that the only constitution that PF can think of is not 50%+1 even, but a suspension of the constitution and all democratic institutions in the country, and a decree that all governance, judiciary and national wealth including the mines shall vest in Mr Sata, no cabinet no parliament no judges no ZRA no Barotse Agreement no…..etc etc. And I am not joking, guys.
#12 Kapoma, don’t be silly. Mpombo=Sata adn Sata=Mpombo, so please ask your Mr Sata (Mpombo) whether his allegations in 1991 of KK hiding arms at Sinda were true, and whether those arms were found when KK lost elections. Otherwise don’t waste our precious time, we have a more noble duty to develop this country than wasting our precious time answering to noises from f.ools who have nothing better to do.
#12 Warrior, sorry post @ #71 is meant for the story on recovered items Mansa story.
Don’t worry some of these blogger s are given a 50pin a day to use 30pin for blogging and 20 pin for packets of shake shake. They are told what opinion to give and are not a factor.
Ladies and Gentlemen the problem we us Zambians have enthrusted too much power in men, why can’t we try women power? 2011 Tawi Ya muzimai . Vote wisely” Edith Nawakwi for president and stability. At least women are mild not the men. Let’s us give the women also chance to rule. VOTE FDD!!!!
We have to know where Bbaala is from to understand his real position with regards to the upcoming elections. We also have to understand that Bbaala is giving his OPINION without any empirical evidence to support his statements. In this case, he is no different from any street vendor, or kabova espousing his anger at a party that has left their leader (HH) wallowing in very shallow waters gasping for political life. Bbaala is just not happy that someone in his corner is now totally in a corner.MR. Bbaala is not a researcher and probably not a proper political analyst as evidenced in his statement that MMD performed good while losing. What kind of an assessment is that? If Zambia loses by 4 goals to Algeria in Algiers and lose by 2 goals in Chililabombwe, he would Zambia has improved.
Leaks from the Electoral Commission of Zambia (ECZ) indicate that despite extending the voters registration 3 to 4 times in a bid to catch up with PF strongholds, the final voters registration figures still indicate an upper hand in the Northern and Urban provinces for the Patriotic Front. The informer has indicated the latest figures to be as follows:
Copperbelt 869,406
Lusaka 776,866
Northern 658,902
Southern 655,380
Eastern 654,204
Central 482,571
Luapula 409,754
N/Western 310,398
Western 389,609
The total number of registered voters is 5.2 million; an increase of almost 100% from the 2006 cast figures of 2.7 million.
The ECZ informer stated that a strategic analysis of the above figures gives PF the upper hand on both MMD and UPND, all factors being equal. This can be illustrated by the following summation:
Copperbelt, Lusaka, Northern, Luapula ;total: 2,714,928 representing 52.1%
Southern, Eastern, Central, Western, Northwestern;Total: 2,492,162 which is 47.9%
The informer stated that probable factors in favour of PF could include:
• The Panji Kaunda factor will slightly cut into the Eastern bloc dominated by MMD and a relatively fair share will swing to PF.
• UPND and MMD will share bigger parts of Central Province with PF taking the Kabwe Urban votes.
• Western will be shared equally between all four candidates with PF making late inroads arising from the Inonge Wina factor supported by the Barotse detainees issue. Milupi will also get his quarter from the Province using the wako ni wako factor.
• Northwestern will be shared between MMD and UPND with the PF getting significant votes in urban Solwezi town.
#68,hh sata.You say you dont understand how any ‘sane’ mind can vow to vote for sata in pursuit of change.in other words all of his supporters are INSANE.Surely do expect to enlighten anyone with such insults,oh wait,that means you should be the wisest most prominent zambian for you to make such statements.Cant you see youre spreading a culture of hatred.Lets dialogue intelligiently!!
• Loyal votes in various strong pockets of MMD in Northern and Luapula will be superseded or compensated by PF gains in the Western and Eastern Provinces.
Given the above, the informers at ECZ predict PF carrying the day with a significant simple majority.
In the light of what I have just posted, who is making more sense between this para – academic called Phineas Bbala from UNZA and ZCTU?
IT is Bbala who is making sense. Remain with your fake statistics and time will catch up with you when you will be nursing your shock at UTH after results. Your friend MCS is lucky, he might be flown again to RSA, but for you MBIZO, you may end up at Kalingalinga clinic
Chomba 2,
These statistics are not fake. Why do you guys prefer arguing without the benefit of facts and figures but with emotions only? The figures I am using are from the Electoral Commission of Zambia. These were widely disseminated in the government – owned newspapers – the Zambia Daily Mail and the Times of Zambia – at the end voter registration exercise last month. The analysis is not mine, but was provided by a very, very senior officer at ECZ itself. Brother Chomba, I am very confident that I won’t end end up at Kalingalinga clinic.
Western will be shared equally between all four candidates with PF making late inroads arising from the Inonge Wina factor supported by the Barotse detainees issue
Max, read the statement and broken English by a very, very senior ECZ officer. I bet he is a Kaponya also
Chomba 2, The essence of the debate here is not about the grammatical inadequacies of the ECZ officer, but the soundness of his analysis. We all make these grammatical slip – ups every so often. I have to admit that I am not impressed with your penchant for insulting language like the use of the word “kaponya” to refer to anyone with a different political perspective. I believe this demeans the quality of debate on this site.
#85 MAX, what tangible analysis do you expect from an office who cant eloquently express himself. Start preparing for a huge defeat/Land slide Victory by MMD
I have just been laughing at the courage of Mr Mwaba shamelessly shoving his highly incompetent and flawed views on Decision 2011. I reserve my comments because Mr Phineas Bbaala of UNZA Department of Political Science has sanctimoniously torn up this Mwaba media fraud. Mwaba needs a political drill-out to gain predictive skills.
What is there for PF to match MMD’s unprecedented record development under RB? Unless Mwaba thinks Sata’s proposition 3 for homosexuals and secession calls are his assets under the belt.
Everywhere you go Zambians are saying MMD, Nafuti nafuti.
ba roy we know you are a PF supporter.You like homosexuality.MMD will win with ease bamudala imwe.
MMD will win again becoz of the foolishness of the opposition.
figure pipo.figures.that lecturer has confirmed that his analysis is from readin newspapers and watching znbc news.really!and all you supportin his analysis are cool with that.Even if he had predicted an outcome I was cool with,like an mmd loss,I would be sceptical of his research methods.readin newspapers and znbc news!
Lets go to 2006 Presidential Election Results:
Levy Mwanawasa (MMD); 1,177,846 votes; 42.98%
Michael MC Sata (PF) 804,748 votes; 29.37%
Hakainde Hichilema (UDA) 693,772 votes; 25.32%
Godfrey K Miyanda (HP) 42,891 votes; 1.57%
Winright K Ngondo (APC) 20,921 votes; 0.76%
Now compare this with the 2008 Presidential Election Results here below:
BANDA RUPIAH B (MMD) 718,359 votes; 40.09 %
SATA MICHAEL C (PF) 683,150 votes; 38.13 %
HICHILEMA HAKAINDE (UPND) 353,018 votes; 19.70 %
MIYANDA GODFREY K (HERITAGE) 13,683 votes; 0.76 %
Against total votes cast, Sata with his PF jumped from 3.35% of votes for him in 2001 to 29.37% of votes in 2006 and finally again gaining to 38.13% of votes in 2008
Against total votes cast, MMD jumped from 19.45% of votes in 2001 to 42.98% of…
now seeing how sata has been increasing his percentages always and how the mmd leaked votes in 2008 by election inspite of the sympathy vote and are bound to leak some more again to the upnd at the very least,can you blame the pf “kaponyas” for been so confident.
The voting pattern changes depending on so many factors. If the trend continues to be the same for Sata he will have it.
Why is UPND in denial? I think to them if they join hands to unseat MMD they may not be seen to have fought a big fight. The UPND would rather lose with PF than let Pf carry the day.
But, on our comments let’s not belittle our friends UPND. We have one foe, MMD. No antagonisms (It is a small tribe, tribal party, etc.) The legs should not complain about the hands
This is where Panji Kaunda has come in, but a few have understood him. The pact failure has discouraged many potential CHANGE voters.
They do not want to waste there votes. With the PACT, it would have been easy victory for the opposition. Work hard otherwise BWEZANI azabwela anso, nafuti.
If we rely on the recent by-elections from 2008 todate on parliamentary UPND has grabbed 3 seats from MMD meaning it has added three seats and it retained its local government seats and added a few. MMD has retained the serenje seat , mpulungu and one in Eastern province. On local government it has grabbed seats from PF in Luapula and N/P. PF has only retained chifubu and kasama parliamentary seats. Have added only one in mporokoso. PF has lost L/ government seats to MMD. Jealous down, UPND is the only opposition which have grabbed MMD parliamentary seats outside its stronghold. Retaining seats it does not mean that you are growing. UPND is growing in Lusaka,. Central, western, N/western and copperbelt rural. With this analysis the contest will be between MMD and UPND- VIVA UPND.
BRAIN STORMER uli litole. Do you think things are well in Zambia? U should travel; and see how pipo are staying in other countries.
Bbaala an educated fool.how dare he dismisses the violence in Western as insufficient to changing the voting pattern.your analytical skills are very lame;iam concerned for your students.everything you see in tilting over your blind support for MMD.be objective Nincompoop
GOOD MORNING ZAMBIA!
I HAVE BEEN READING YOUR THOUGHTS, VERY INTERESTING
KEEP IT UP.NONE OF YOUR CANDIDATES WILL WIN THE COMING ELECTIONS.WHY AM SAYING SO,BECOUSE NONE OF THEM IS TELLING THE TRUTH.