Tuesday, June 25, 2024

Kwacha falls to a 12-month low after Sata’s victory

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Zambia’s kwacha fell to a 12-month low of 5,030 against the dollar on Friday after opposition leader Michael Sata, a fierce critic of foreign mining investment, especially from China, won a surprise election victory.

Traders said the currency of Africa’s biggest copper producer was likely to remain on the back foot until Sata provided clarity on his economic policies.

He told Reuters last week he would maintain strong commercial and diplomatic ties with China and would not introduce a minerals windfall tax. He also implied he might impose some form of capital controls to keep dollars in the country.

“Right now there’s a bit of uncertainty about what changes in policy we’re going to see with Sata,” said Coura Fall, an Africa analyst at Citi in Johannesburg.

“The kwacha will continue to be vulnerable, at least until there’s clarity about what’s going to happen. Everybody is trying to see what Sata is really about.”

Other factors weighing on the kwacha are a 17 percent decline in the last three weeks in the price of copper, which accounts for 80 percent of Zambia’s export revenue, and the more general global flight from risky emerging and frontier market assets.

Sata is due to be sworn in on Friday, only hours after the declaration of his election victory over incumbent Rupiah Banda, whose Movement for Multi-party Democracy had run the southern African country since the end of one-party rule in 1991.

[Reuters]

80 COMMENTS

    • Its a stupid website. I stopped visiting it a long time ago when I realised they had a political agenda and I have lost nothing by not going back there. Out of curiosity I went there today and must say I will never again visit the site. The editorial you are referrring to is obviously from HH.

  1. We now have Mr Fix it, they should not worry! Zambia will be developed in 90 days, Barotse Agreement restored, Kwacha will be at par with USD, more money in our pockets, no shanty compounds and low taxes-all in 90 days! May you kind swear in soon so that you get down to work? The clock is ticking. you already have spent one day deciding which grounds to swear from! Since when did that happen at Parliament? I truly wish Zambia God’s protection

    • It’ll be amusing to watch things going from bad to worse in the next 90days. already no windfall tax which was the campaign mantra for putting money in yo pockets. let the circus begin

  2. New revelation: Zambian watchdog is a ‘dying’ MMD Vuvuzela. Instead of being objective as a media body, their editor has snapped and is showing his true colours with the story “President Sata and the nonsense he is bringing” PLEASE BOYCOTT WATCHDOG WHICH IS WISHING ZAMBIA DOOM WITH ITS DEMOCRATICALLY ELECTED GOVT.

  3. Ba LT lets not start speculations.The Kwacha did not fall today but before the elections results were declared. That s not the way money markets work.

  4. Ba LT lets not start speculations.The Kwacha did not fall today but before the elections results were declared. That s not the way money markets work.

  5. Investors need to build their capital base. They need to make profit. Zambia is still an attractive capital market. Many investors want to come. Investors will work with anyone for the top dollar. Kwacha will bounce back. Fall may be due to falling copper prices on the international market.

  6. Yes what time is the inauguration , why are they wasting time changing venues, do they have to choose a venue that is as close to Kulima Tower as possible? Come on guys. You are running the country now and not a bus station!!!

    It’s game on. Iam also waiting to start running my count down clock . 90 days miracle will deliver more money in people’s pockets , just in time for Christmas. We are counting and we are watching.

    We said before that Zambia deserved a better opposition… well Zambia has it now in MMD and watch us work as we assemble a young, vibrant and youthful genuine force to be reckoned with

    We will be back.

  7. There is a very big difference between mere rhetoric and substance, opposition and governing. This is when the real work begins. Fantasy and reality are two sides of the same coin which you cannot see at the same time. You either see one or the other, never both at the same time.  

  8. Thats the problem with people who have little understanding of “risk and perception”; these two are intertwined. If investors peceive Zed as a risk because of the PF; they can pack. Moise Katumbi simply tells them to go. You know what, I would not leave Zambia if i where them; imagine an african country with so much good force for good from people that you can change a government twice with very few casualties!! Thats stability; and if PF can even take it to another level; Zambia will be ready for more foreign direct investment. If they go, the chance is there for us Zambians. Make no mistake, its our duty to invest and improve Zambia; but the government has to back us; unlike the previous government. We hope we will be given a chance to invest in our country. “Perception che”

  9. Bank of Zambia still waiting for authority from new leaders on whether to pump dollars or not. This will only become a problem if it is not corrected as at now its simply a teething issue. By the way, i dont like Sata’s winning. In ademocracy thats suppose to be acceptable, its called accepting divergeny…..

  10. As and when teh PF makes a few stable decisions, perception can change and the Kwacha will stabilise. As it is, its just a nightmare!! 1£ to some 7500pin!! Imagine the cost of importing? If it stabilises, we will see more money in our pockets. We the Kaponyas will be given a chance to give technical Nzelu to this government; and if they dont listen, bachoka!! We now knowo how to mobilise for change.

  11. #4 & #6 As usual Kaponyas giving excuses already, even before your president is inuagurated. This report is from the World Financial leader called Reuters and it is also run by Bloom berg and all the major financial sites.

    Just learn to listen and explain your 90 days miracle, clearly the world is spinning its head hard trying to understand this 90 days thing. Please provide some clarity.

    I hope your Kulima Tower School of Economics and Matero University prepared you for this. This is not an LT story it is a Reuters story. Welcome to the real world Matero University Graduates

  12. #13: You have to put upo with us for the next 20 years my dear; and we will love every moment of it. Call us what you want; we are a proud people with our Kaponya land. Your misery is our happiness ba pombwe

  13. MMD Chief Bootlicker advise me what I will do with all the monies we illegally made with my father now that Sata has won?? Call me please on my Mobile iwe am waiting ok.

  14. the circus begins, I hope the first contract wont be to print more currency notes. We need more money with value in our pockets, not billions without value. Congrats PF. We are watching and ready to hwlp and work together where we can.

  15. #15 Take it back , see your pastor and repent and report yourself to the police, and pray the judge will have mercy on you. You must be a despicable person, how could you do that? Rule number one concerning money is, NEVER EVER take money until you have provided a service. You get paid in exchange of a service or goods you provide. Didn’t your mother teach you that?

    Bill gates is rich because he provided us with a service that has made it easy for us to use these machines called computers and we all rewarded him.

    Teach your children to do the same after you restitute your despicable acts. Shame on your and how disgusting that you even have the audacity to blog about that.

    I will let Mushota throw the final adjectives on you.

  16. DON’T WORRY this is due to uncertainties caused by MMD when they tried to rig the election. Don’t worry we will fix it. Media, don’t speculate please. If you are RB’s funs just go with him to Malawi.

    • due to mmd really? wake up this is reality! theres a reason why the currency has already depreciated. i think we should be worried.

  17. Can you stop speculating, we have stamped out laziness, corruption and media control, we have started building intergrity, proudness, jobs, respect, confidence,enterprenuership into the zambians. Foreigners will now know that zambia belongs to Lozis, Tongas, bembas, ngonis, tumbukas, kaondes, lundas,mambwes,lenjes, mention them, They need to respect us if they are to partake of our wealth.

  18. You guys are a bunch of *****s. Boot Licker, Dont you honeslty know that our Aussie dollar has also hit an alltime low in the last two years fetching way below a US dollar. Zambias Market Economy is very ideally like Australia based on Mineral wealth and exports. China has slowed is not Sata. The worlds strongest economies have fallen what more a plundered one. Please, in loss express maturity. Mulibakalamba. Yes Sata needs every 90 days in the 5 years to continue the change. You coudnt do it it 20 years. Yes you got rich that was achievable. But let wait and see

    • But ba Cat Power you scare me with your view. Ba Cat politics is one of the cardinal factors in the performance of any economy. Here politics comes with the leadership that is expected to make decisions. If Sata will assure the world that he is sane and able to depart from his not-so-business-friendly rhetoric, we will see the growth in this country continue on the back of international businesses. But his ascendency to power on the scare-business rhetoric could be pushing the uncertainty in the economy and investors might have withheld or pulled out their liquid assets that determine the strength of the local currency.

    • If markets start to shatter at the eve of one president going to state houses then there are forces behind it. If we do not accept that Sata’s winning it has impacted on the market forces, then the heavenly forces have brought a curse to Zambia’s Copper economy, may we try tuntemba and ngwangwazi business

  19. #16 Am no Kaponya my friend. I have always held six jobs at any one point especially in this new digital economy. If you own one job I advise you wake up. Don’t live like miners who depended on ZCCM for everything from toilet tissue to light bulbs. The Internet has created a lot of opportunities and the job now is not about reporting to some stupid building. You can work from anywhere any time round the clock if you want and there are a lot of money making opportunities, like trading world markets 24 hours ..so get out of this old fashioned mindset of you need a job to survive. Don’t live like your stone age great grand parents. This is an information age and take advantage of it and don’t look to anybody to make it for you.

    Am around vibrant and ready to go to the next level.

  20. No need to fix anything in 90 days, we saw how mmd did it all in 90 days and its not good. Sata slowly slowly boss. MMD unprecedented development was in 90days so we know it can be done, no need to prove anything. Sata bring sanity to health, lower taxes, better roads, housing,….

  21. 21.

    People decided the arrogance by MMD witnessed by your continual antagonistic actions led to the downfall in trust of the whole government.
    The people have decided “ITS TIME” as in your EX leader spoke only some hours ago.

  22. Reuters why are you wasting time. We have Mr. Fix it. This is not a problem to him as it’ll be solved in 90 days. He shall make his policies known soon enough. Investors need not worry.

  23. All currencies lost value over recent days.

    The RAND
    The US Dollar
    The Australian Dollar.
    The Pound

    Some bootlickers will never understand and keep trying old tactics.

  24. guys lets be honest, the kwacha being on backfoot is not about SATA, its the uncertainity in the globle markets especially the euro and job prospects in the US. as regards to 90days, all SATA said change the way the government is ran. please bane Zambia do not write things you dont understand. whether you like it or not SATA is the presidents, lets just support him

  25. @ #17 MMD Chief Bootlicker

    This is not the end of MMD. We shall show PF how to be a credible opposition by bringing about issue based politics and grooming young leaders to take the mantle. PF, we are watching…89 days left. We are going to make sure you govern to the expectations of the Zambian people. We shall be diligent and pressure you into governing this nation well and chuck you out in 2016. We are watching.

  26. Boot Fimofimo. Thought you said you were wining? OK now you have 20 jobs right Mr Jere? Just wait and see what happenes. And, are you back in SA or you are still casting that s t u[pid vote? Seeing family? Enjoy! Aha ha ha ha ha ha. We just kicked you a* ss.

  27. I am loving the changing of roles here! Orgasm Tembo defending the policies he was yesterday strongly opposing and Bootlicker trashing the govt! Lol! elo lwanya – wemwanawe leta popokoni tutambe!

  28. Let people speculate. It does not matter. Zambians have decided peacefully. Let’s focus of how well Zambia has demostrated its great democracy rather than worrying about speculative exchange rates. Zambia shall prosper!! God bless Zambia!!!!!

  29. With or without a strong kwacha PF is governing us.Why wish them failure when their intention is to make things better for Zambia.Lets wish them success but criticize them where ever necessary.

  30. Forget the exchange rate, let them leave our copper down in its depths, it will always be there for us to sell again, just as Angloamerican pulled out before, infact the longer we hold onto it, & the scarcer it becomes on the market, the more demand it generates – the core principle of a capitalistic economy, Demand, sets pace for the price – DONCHIIIII KUBEBAAAAAA!!!
    More dollars down the line, let them mourn, it is all about dictating to 3rd world economies, at least we have a president of our choice, whom we believe is un-influenced by the same forces that enjoy seeing us wallow in poverty – we believe PF will deliver sound & comprehensive ecomomic policies within 90 days, Mr Presido, we are here to serve!!!!

  31. The copper price on the LME was US$ 7790/t yesterday down from over US$ 9000/t a week ago.The reason is the recent US Federal Reserve warning of a grim economic outlook and a contraction in Chinese factory output has led to concerns about decreased demand for metals like copper…the increasing crisis in the Eurozone also raises the possibility of the global economy going into a double dip depression.

  32. Is Sata’s victory having such a negative impact on regional and global currencies it is being felt in Jo’burg? Someone explain to me how the SA Rand has dropped to R8.35 to the US$ as of this morning in the last few days! It’s a global trend, and with a second recession looming expect the worst

  33. You cannot attribute one variable to a certain occurrence. That is lazy economics. The fall in the Kwacha is as a result of what is happening globally following the Federal Reserve announcement and the uncertainty of a Mr. Sata presidency. President Sata should calm uncertainty by making his position known concerning foreign investment. If he does not, whilst other currencies will recover, Zambia shall stagnate if not worsen. Political risk is a plausible variable ba PF.

  34. Boot fimofimo are you sure you are supposed to start coaching us so soon? All your wise observations were wrong and to the last minute until the farewell speech you stil thought MMD is winning. Pls shut your big mouth and give us chance we do it our way you ignorant cadre. If you want to talk have respect for our president or else kazakutudila again.

  35. People here don’t understand market forces 
    Satan is a new cat in office ,there is a lot
    Of uncertainty ,he needs to reassure people
    That have pumped their money in the country
    Instead of his kaponyas  And needs to put
    Strict rules for these Chinese,just don’t it
    To be like Zimbabwe. 

  36. Boot Licker please express maturity. This is sour grapes. SIx (as in 6) Jobs in a modern economy. Iam living in the best economy in the worl and as far as i know even two jobs you can only claim one maximum tax threshold on your first jobs and the next is taxed at at over 50 % you would get anything for the othe jobs as in shares when you are employed they are taxed at over 65 % if not your only source of income. Stop bulshitting poeple you shamless man. Anyway I need one job to drive an 100,000 plus VX in the mines here and my wife 60 grand plus car plus a nice house too much to mentio.

    You a time waster

  37. Just to think that the next SADC meeting will have Mugabe from Zimbabwe, Sata from Zambia and Mbingu from Malawi how embarassing! Anyway a nation’s leadership is a reflection of it’s society amybe we deserve mediocrity and pettiness as a people because we seem to vote for clowns and demagogues. Let peace prevail kono lu sa kayuka those in the diaspora God has really blessed you. Idi Amin was cheered through kampala when he came to power. My consolation is that God Almighty is in control. lets wait and see if you want to expose a man put him on the spotlight. Let us talk after 90 days! Shalom

  38. RBs farewell speach was very gracious and full of wisdom. We salute amalume for his last words as the fourth president of republic. MMD will surely regroup to provide a strong opposition which PF needs.

  39. NO more insults here BA MMD behave yourselves.three dayz later you were saying PF cadre they are insulting much here,but today it’s you who ar insulting.chimo ni chimo.

  40. The people of Zambia have won.I am proud of my country for holding elections where Governments have changed yet without bloodshed.To God be the glory.

  41. I hope PF adopt someone like Magande as finance minister. Magande did a very good job and this will restore confidence in the kwacha by investors. I also hope PF split Ministry of Tourism into 3 to make it effective. ( Ministry of Environmental Council of Zambia, Ministry of deforestation and Ministry of Forestry)

  42. Mind the typo error. I meant to say Ministry of Tourism should be divided into Ministry of Forestry, Ministry of Tourism, Ministry of Environmental and Council of Zambia(ECZ)

  43. #4 Real Zambian Its a stupid website. I stopped visiting it a long time ago when I realised they had a political agenda and I have lost nothing by not going back there. Out of curiosity I went there today and must say I will never again visit the site. The editorial you are referrring to is obviously from HH.

  44. It is a shame to all of you Zambains who voted for this Dunderhead,You will soon experience worse economical situation than experienced before.Its lack of understanding issues which you shall be punished for this.How can a grade 4 drop out convince you that he can do everything within 90 days.Your stupid President is inconsistent for that matter,these are some of the anxieties which us investors are feeling right now.I dont want to wake up in the morning that my tereasures hav disappeared.Yo have eyes and ears yet you cant see nad hear.

  45. as usual people are tying what can not be tied – globally there is threat of a double dip recession and this has got nothing to do with sata. of course those that have something to hide will hide their dollars but for how long. lets see what happens – no need to fear – i would rather sata rocks the boat now and steadies it later than use the same system in the fear of doing the right thing

  46. #51 you are wrong the President of Brazil is not educated but did a brilliant job. He just has to choose the right people who are effective to run departments and hold them accountable for results. As I suggested a simple gesture of appointing someone like Magande as minister of finance will restore confidence in the financial sector and investors. I am not too sure about Mutati’s background but he could also be adopted for commerce again.

  47. # I totally disagree with you,Do you know the background of the fomer brazilian president? You cannot compare it to that of Sata,If you want google it and compare to him.atleast you know the background of your current President,Sata.All these uncertainities are caused by his well known inconsistences,Who knows maybe by the time he wakes up tomorrow,he may say i do not want Chinese and Indian Investors. If chinese and Indians withdrwa their investments then you will be rest assured you will be living on less than a cent.

  48. Commando just go to hell. In Democracy you respect the majority’s political will and when you lose admit you have lost. Chizakubaba chizakubaba chizakubaba until you die of depression. In the meantime the PF will be enjoying their victory

    • #56 you are really a true Zambian, may be belonging to the age of hero worshiping. We do not put Presidents into government for a personal mark that they managed to get to state house. We need them to energize all the factors that will give us hope. RB created 20,000 jobs, a mark that the USA President Obama still struggles to get going. Now if we have ba King Cobra and they scare away the foreign investment, his presidency will be ululated by Kaponyas, but kill the Kwacha, bring back the inflation, reduce imports that will create shortages and cause price rise. With investment being moved out, there will be no jobs, then our mothers and sisters will be vendors and back door deals will flourish. I know you will not call that corruption but empowering people’s talents.

  49. Crap. This is bad news. Less than 24 hours in and the new Government has already cost me money. The President elect needs to make a reassuring statement so that, come monday, the markets stabilise. That is the problem with putting kaponyas in office. They don’t understand the intricacies of the global economy. No one knows your president’s policies, and any sane investor will have moved most of the liquid assets out of the country to hedge against the risk that is MC Sata. Please Sata, be more presidential and reassure the nation that you are a sane and stable guy. I dont want the gains I make on my business to be wiped out by exchange losses!

  50. #55 My point was to remove your education theory out. Well, people have elected and you have to respect democracy. Be proud that the Zambian people are a force in elections. MMD has been in power for 20 years and they should be grateful Zambians gave them all that time to rule. If Sata does not do well then guess what the Zambians will speak again. On the point of uncertainity don’t forget there was elections and the results took long to be announced. You can’t blame that uncertainity on Sata. It is only natural for the kwacha to have been affected during that period of time. Let’s hope for the best…give him a chance and we all pray God gives him wisdom as the new leader the Zambians have elected.

  51. #58 Another issue is that if the poverty, illiteracy and unemployment levels were continuing to rise at the levels MMD had allowed them. Guess what in the long term investments would not have been safe. You have to balance the growth of the economy with the welfare of the local Zambians. I think this is the area where MMD lost the confidence of some of its supporters.

  52. I would like those guys in UK and RSA who used to insult us that “Sata will never be a President in Zambia!” We told you prophets of doom

  53. (1)the kwacha fell becuase we haven’t heard what sata future plans are( 2) , there external factors like the recent eu news companies are moving money out of eu banks which are in turn moving money out of emerging markets …according to so of ur thinking …..the RSA rand also fell sata must very powerful guy 

  54. MMD Chief Bootlicker
    The young unemployed youth you refer to as KAPONYAs were created by MMD policies.
    Now the same have voted and if you are a democrat, you will respect the decision of the majority.
    SATA has been created by the MMD FAILURES. The man simply capitalized on MMD FAILURES.
    THE TRUTH HURTS BUT HEY WAKE UP, ITS NOW MC SATA IN STATE HOUSE TILL AT MOST 2016..AND THEN THE PIPO WILL JUDGE AGAIN….INCLUDING THE SAME PIPO YOU CALL KAPONYAS SOME OF WHOM ARE INTELLIGENT AND PROBABLY WITH MORE POTENTIAL THAN YOU IF THEY WERE GIVEN CHANCE

  55. This could be the first trumpet, might as well be the last for Zambia’s growth.

    WSJ story hammers this home: “Although Mr. Sata said he would continue to welcome foreign investors in the country’s mining sector—as long as they respected the country’s labor laws—, his victory also caused jitters in the business community. On Friday, Numis Securities called Mr. Sata’s win a “broad negative” for miners such as Vedanta Resources PLC, Swiss commodity trader Glencore International PLC and Barrick Gold Corp. now operating in Zambia”.

  56. Wait-Tumone, whts this nonses ”Numis Securities” Let them go to hell, you see investors must be willing to pay Zambians a living wage, they must provide acceptable conditions of service. if they can’t let them go to hell,,,,

  57. MMD Cheif Boutleaker

    – Why are you so exited in using the word ”Kaponyas” Do you know that this country belongs to all Zambians wether Kaponya of some of us… Musula wobe

  58. The most recent range of Reproduction Religious Louboutin appears a significant deal with for people within European countries because an array of clients have began buying these things as well as furthermore, a few of the store shops also have issue how the share was already cleaned away which, they need the re-filling

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