By David Kapoma
In the last few days, the planned alliance between the PF and the MMD has dominated the news headlines. Naturally, everybody wants to know how much of an impact this may have on the 11th August elections, and who stands to gain or lose.
It is fairly clear that an MMD-PF pact is most likely to win in August because both parties would be united in mind and purpose. Not forgetting the fact that on the other hand the UPND still has chances of forming alliances with FDD, Rainbow and of course the new attractive girl in school, the Democratic Front (DF). This situation if came to reality could leave the case of winning republican presidency to chance.
Edgar Lungu has already consolidated his position in PF and he can obviously help out Nevers Mumba to unite the MMD with a view to getting a united MMD on his side. The combination of the two parties in a strong alliance would be unstoppable and the path for UPND to win the elections would be very difficult if they decide to go it alone .
Many pundits have hailed this alliance or pact as a good idea since they believe that the injection of MMD people into PF will help bring balance to the haphazard governance record of PF. President Lungu is still dealing with team Michael Sata and after this coming election, he shall be free to replace all the “useless ministers” to quote the words of the late president Sata. He shall be able to bring in more competent people from MMD.
Whilst on paper the alliance looks good, there are many problems with it and the MMD would do well to think very carefully about getting into bed with PF. For one thing, the MMD under Dr Mumba would be putting their fate in the hands of President Lungu and it is obvious that MMD would eventually get completely absorbed into PF. Coalition governments rarely (if ever) work in Africa due to immature politics we exercise.
President Lungu would naturally make sure that he consolidates his power. Leaving MMD as a stand alone party while in the alliance would not work for him because MMD would be the greatest threat to PF in 2021. They MMD would regroup and have the benefit of seeing the inner workings of the PF. So President Lungu would make sure he makes the MMD people very comfortable and one by one they would begin seeing no point in belonging to MMD. It would just be a matter of time before MMD became part of PF rather than risk becoming another UNIP.
Dr Mumba has said he is tabling the issue of the alliance with his NEC and considering his history with NCC and RP, he might be attracted to the prospect of being Vice-President to Lungu which may place him in pole position to become president in 2021. After all no one in Dr. Mumba’s position would turn down the offer of becoming republican vice President. However, him being President Lungu’s running mate is far from certain as President Lungu has already said that parties going into an alliance with PF should not assume anything about the running mate.
Indeed what would stop President Lungu from bringing Dr. Mumba close to him, working together for maybe 3 months, take over the MMD structures with money and other machinations and then dump Dr. Mumba when it comes to filing in of nomination papers? Why would he need him at that point? Nevers Mumba’s recent political history indicates that he can be very ambitious and has the ability of going into over drive at any point. In African politics, a strong veep is frowned upon and Nevers is known for being very charismatic and being able to take over the whole show as happened under Levy Mwanawasa.
The biggest problem with the alliance looking at MMD is that they would be betting their future on PF. If PF failed, they would fail with it. Nevers Mumba’s integrity and morality message would surely collapse as Zambians would judge him as the greatest hypocrite to ever walk the earth. Never’s is therefore, faced with a very difficult situation at the moment as he has to make a decision that suits his personal standing and character he has belt over the years. Being a man of God I am assuming that he is probably already consulting God on the next move. And I honestly sympathize with him.
Dr Mumba must ask himself if destroying his reputation forever with Zambians is worth it. He may perhaps become president one day, but it would be using a route that would leave him with a very badly damaged reputation. But then again,considering how short the memory of Zambians are, perhaps it may not matter five to fifteen years from now. If even the despotic Kenneth Kaunda could be looked at as a hero today, perhaps Dr Mumba would be looked upon favorably, especially if he turns out to be a good president which I think is possible.
Assuming Dr. Mumba does become Running Mate to President Lungu and become Vice-President, how would he handle corruption, cadre violence, incompetence, nepotism and all the evils in government? How would he react if opposition parties are teargassed? As Guy Scott once remarked, the veep is basically the chola boy for the president though with the amended constitution this may not be so real. Nevers would have no real power in government and could easily be sidelined the way Joyce Banda was sidelined in Malawi. He would be powerless to stop any corruption and I do not see it stopping under President Lungu . He would be at pains to defend a “corrupt” government that is unlikely to change its spots anytime soon.
One thing that puzzles me is how MMD is going into a negotiation with PF from a position of great weakness. Because they have not completed their party mobilization and reorganization, they have little to offer PF. It can even be argued that PF are only trying to stop MMD becoming strong again so they are dangling a carrot to the MMD.
If Dr. Mumba rejects the deal, he still has to face the wrath of PF who will go into overdrive to try to undermine his position as MMD president and they may try to kill off the MMD with renewed vengeance. Can Nevers survive? My view is that even if he got defeated in the end, he would earn a lot of respect for standing on principle and disprove all his critics and perhaps in future could still bounce back even stronger. But getting into bed with PF at this point would in my view complicate his life and disappoint a lot of Zambians like myself that have a lot of respect for him. I do not envy his position. This is a lose-lose situation for him in the short term.
One other interesting angle is if MMD remains alone and instead opts to do an alliance in the second round. Everything would be up in the air and it is difficult to predict how things would pan out. The positions of the parties would have a great bearing, especially who comes out first. If MMD came out a respectable third place with around 20% of the vote, they would have two good offers on the table from PF and UPND. I think MMD would be in a much better position to even command up to a third of all cabinet positions.
For now, we wait for the decision of the MMD NEC which is scheduled to meet this weekend according to the party. One thing I am certain of is that there are plenty of twists and turns still coming up. Relax, put your feet up and grab that popcorn and good bye for now!
The pact deal is between RB and EL. Soon MMD will be going for a convetion to elect RB as party president.
Most MMD mp s will stand in PF strong holds.
This is part of the condition RB gave EL after helping him win 2015 election. That’s you hear EL emphasizing that without RB he wouldn’t have won the election.
Mumba being merely the caretaker CEO. He is a fighter though!
Mumba will only agree to join the alliance if he is picked as the running mate to EL.
After EL’s term, Mumba will take over PF and that will be the end of MMD. Mumba is smarter than Lungu and he is seeing an opportunity to fulfil his “Zambia Shall be Saved” dream.
Remember that Mumba was leading his own party, the NCC, he left it and now leading MMD, next is PF…… mark my words!
What sort of impact wil MMD and their 1% of the vote from 2015 have on the election?
FDD even performed better
Is this even worth discussing
….he might be attracted to the prospect of being Vice-President to Lungu which may place him in pole position to become president in 2021
The author must be aware that under the amended Constitution, Edgar Lungu will still be eligible to contest the 2021 elections. A TERM in new constitution is defined as “2 years, 6 months”. So what Lungu has served from last year does not count as full term
good analysis but wait for the insults from UPND BLOGGERS Because thats what they are known for
satanists
…he is not falling into the trap….he is actually struggling to come out of it…Nevers is like a rat which has seen a roasted nut or a fish which has seen a live worm….cannot resist the temptation of being considered a running mate purely for his personal attainment and glory other than that of his party and its members….
…sorry, I meant to mean that he is pretending to be struggling to come out of the trap and yet that’s exactly what he is hopping for…..remember when we were young…smart girls always played a game of ‘hard to get’…repeatedly saying ‘NO’ meanwhile she meant YES…….
Its a sad to know that politics in Zambia have been reduced to a level of just winning elections and not service delivery to the poor Zambians.
Slowly we are headed to a one party sate and no one can see this and we will only wake up when things get bad.
When poverty takes hold people stop thinking.
@Snake bite
Ask the European scholars and politicians about the difference between European parties and American parties and they will tell you about how European parties are more ideologically based whilst American parties are more about winning elections. So, winning elections is not just a Zambian thing!
That’s not true! Why do I say so? REASON IS SIMPLE am gonna take here in America there are a lot millions of people more than Zambian population but with only two Political Parties,Zambia needs to move in such a Direction. Viva Mumba
I see no great deal here with MMD/PF Pact see:
(1) PF/MMD cannot win in NWP,WP,SP & CP PROVINCES that is a fact no MP currently under MMD member will agree to stand on that pact.
(2) MMD is no longer a factor, remember 90% of MMD mps who supported HH in Jan 2015 are from the above provinces and will stand a better chance to win their seats back by standing on UPND tickets.
(3) The PF/MMD will be viewed the same in terms of the following:
(a) Poor health care
(b) load shedding
(c) Beating up people in markets & stations
(d) Poor kwacha
(e) No jobs
(f) No money in our pockets
The coming of DF is now the final blow to PF because DF will have more MPS from the Northern, Muchinga & Luapula while Lusaka & CB will be sangwapo. In simple terms PF will just remain with only province…
I totally agree. No MMD MP in a UPND stronghold will attempt to stand on MMD or PF ticket just as those in PF strongholds will jump to PF. This will be an election of polarisation. Nervous Mumba should just do the needful and leave the MMD corpse while it still looks pretty.
This is wrong analysis
Nevers can’t handle power, for a so-called man of God, he’s too proud and full of vanity. That’s how he failed to stick to “Zambia shall be saved” mission, failed as Veep under Levy and failing to pull MMD together. I am sure even in this case, this alliance will not work unless he’s offered the running-mate assurance.
If Dr Mumba takes that step he will improve his political career and it would be shrewd for the future since he will be able to demonstrate renewed Leadership. I can discern here a clear spiritual bond between HE Lungu clear man of Faith working with a Man of God. This will Fortify God’s Blessings on Zambia because the structure for His input will be in place. How can Dr Mumba even consider HH? It’s impossible. His ungodly followers do not share his values. I would urge Nawakwi to take a clear and obvious direction in joining with PF, any other alliance will mean burying her clear talent in political quicksand.
Suggest, Nawakwi next Vice President, Dr Mumba next SG where he can command the Party behaviour. Senior Ministerial Positions for all displaced. I see Defence the next exciting post for Ma’am Wina, it will be second to non to have a Female as defence Head. She would excel!
Nevers mumba is looking for a job, he will be bribed by EL for PF to swallow MMD.
Assuming Nevers succumb to Lungu’s bait, can’t HH drop his ego and marshall the rest of the opposition troops to counter? This is not the ordinary election you (HH) knew and so you should try to incorporate new tactics to an extent of woeing your longtime adversaries.
Nevers should avoid the venom from PF. He is too smart for them.
Mumba has nothing to lose. Even if he was sent back to italy he would still be happy. If he wants to make himself expensive he will lose like miyanda. Mumba will gain more from PF than UPND
Dave, very good review and analysis of the situation. It is quite a tough spot to be in for Nervers, a wrong decision could leave his political career in tatters. He also needs level headed advisers on his side including family and church. It is not a very good situation to be in, outcome of his decision could either build him or break him. He has to reflect seriously and also critique the character of the leader and party that is dangling a carrot to him in light of how the fact that same elements helped destroy the MMD which led to running battles with MMD factions now part of PF Government, but he is a man of God, forgiveness is perhaps an attribute he possess. Very interesting times, I am reminded of a comedy I used to watch on ZNBC TV in late 70s’, “The misadventures of Sherrif…
HH does not need any of these panic games as at now until after the first round.
Those afraid of losing and approve pf evils will seek any unholy alliance.
The upnd’s position is solid. The job has been done by the pf in messing up everything.
Upnd remains strong and the hope of all wellmeaning Zambians. Upnd promises a future solid foundation for Zambia.
As at now the future looks bright with upnd for for all poor Zambians.
Pf promises a rich future for all corrupt Zambians and evil criminals. Only criminal jobs for violent cadres is what is being created and have more money in their pockets.
You assault the opposition you earn a reward.
Mmd is being offered an opportunity to earn money by turning against the fellow opposition.
The poor will be the main loser if pf wins…
That’s not true UPND has not explained to Zambians what they will do to create jobs and improve the price of copper on Market stock of Exchange,Mwilatubepa open your eyes and read between white lines
the writer is very right…..spot on, I
couldn’t agree more, mumba should learn from mwanawasa who accepted to dance with the “devil” Chiluba then just to get into a position of power so as to change things going by ones vision.
THIS IS DIFFERENT UNDER NEW CONSTITUTION BANE SURE!
HH must bring Nawakwi as a running mate and then he must make all the current MPs in SP to stand in Lusaka. Imagine if Gary Nkombo stood in lusaka, they would gain more votes thus reduce the gap.
Gary 2SHOTS Nkhombo, CRAP!!!!
Why is everyone scared of the PF/ MMD alliance? These two parties delivered the new constitution in parliament while UPND on advice from the cartel was busy trying to sabotage a process that has drained so much money from the Zambian Treasury. HH has just entered a marriage of convenience with M’membe, nobody is commenting on that marriage. So please leave Nevers Mumba to charter his own course.
Further UPND is a party that dislikes Bemba speaking people; look at the crowd in UPND, mostly individuals that financed the persecution of bemba / Eastern province people between 2001 -2008. Lupando Mwape was in government when Chiluba was arraigned in a court of law on false charges. The campaign manager for HH – Dipak Patel moved the motion in parliament to have Chiluba’s immunity lifted. Today HH is in a marriage of convenience with Fred M’membe, a man who will do anything to destroy Chiluba’s ten year legacy.
NEERS FALLS ANYWHERE TO SUSTAIN HIS SURVIVAL. HE HAS GOT NO ANY OTHER MEANS FOR SURVIVAL OTHER THAN JUST FALLING ANYWHERE.
“The biggest problem with the alliance looking at MMD is that they would be betting their future on PF. If PF failed, they would fail with it.”The beginning of the end for both PF and MMD
Nevers Mumba has no tramp card..he is already in alliance with PF by defacto; he is incapable of retaining all those MMD seats AND AS LONG AS RB is in the shadows pulling the strings from State House he has no choice.
Mumba, I cannot trust. He is vain and he wants a job to support his lifestyle which MMD is not capable of. So why not join PF? He is arrogant too! Is he principled? I doubt it. Look how he kept quiet for months when there was a rumor that he was going to be given a position in an embassy. He only surfaced when it was not forthcoming. Be wary of failed men of the cloth!
Nevers Mumba is going to be punished by God. He is doing this for selfish interests and not the interest of the Zambian citizens. Even when he was tear gased in Lundazi, he sinks so low to pack with these PF Jerabos. Am convinced now that he was a false prophet, is a crook who stole money in Canada when he was in foreign service. The fallen founders of the MMD, will not allow him to sell it the way he sold his NCC. Rest In Peace, FTJ, Levi Patrick Mwanawasa, Chitalu Sampa, e.t.c