The issue of 50+1remains veiled as Zambia votes. It is telling that the Electoral Commission of Zambia and politicians have not educated the public on this matter. Regardless of votes won, the requirement of 50+1 is the winning mark. What happens if no candidate gets 50+1 votes? How about the time involved before declaring the winner? These are critical questions to the 2016 presidential elections.
Unless numbers lie, Lungu and HH are unlikely to win the August 9 elections. In the January 20, 2015, Edgar Lungu got 48.33 (807,925), while HH got 46.67 (780,168). In the 2011 elections, the PF got 42 %, MMD 35 %, while UPND got 18 %. The 2008 election followed this pattern: MMD won by 40%, PF by 38 %, while UPND dropped to 19.7 %. In 2006, MMD won that election with 43 %, followed by PF at 29 % and lastly by UPND with 25 % of the vote.
The above numbers show why both HH and Lungu are not likely to win this election. Theoretically, one can argue that the absence of the MMD in 2016 elections suggest that a candidate can win 50+1. But as the 2015 elections showed, both parties are beneficiaries of MMD votes. Hence, love them or hate them, smaller parties will be the spoilers—they will make it very hard to hit 50+1.
Can Lungu hit the home-run without a re-run? To his credit, President Lungu started campaigning the moment he took power. Aside from widening PF-reach in rural areas through the implementation of the “Social Cash Transfer,” he killed the MMD—winning over Eastern province; thus restricting HH’s reach in Eastern Province. In this regard, PF and not HH will win a big chunk of former MMD votes in Eastern province. Nonetheless, President Lungu is unlikely to hit 50+1. At the hype of his popularity, President Sata could not hit 50%. President Lungu is not Sata – thus expecting 50+1 is ignoring the above figures.
But can HH make history this time around? Some people think the August 9 elections are settled. To use former first lady, Mrs. Maureen Mwanawasa’s words, “HH’s time to rule Zambia has come”. The numbers of former PF MPs campaigning for him such as Guy Scott, Silvia Masebo and Miles Sampa among many others and his support from Nevers Mumba’s MMD (though Mumba brings no vote to HH) add to this excitement. HH’s popularity in Southern province is intact, while the Copperbelt and Lusaka provinces have always been accommodating to UPND. Without polling, HH’s popularity in these areas will only be known after all votes are counted. Nevertheless, the question is not whether there is the HH tsunami in Zambia, but whether this tsunami will translate into 50+1 votes. Given the tribal nature of Zambian politics, and the number of opposition parties, HH’s chances of forming the next government without a re-run are very slim.
What this means is that unlike in previous elections when a simple plurality declared one a winner, in 2016, one can only win by 50 +1. Zambia will surely go for the re-run between PF and UPND—something new to our political process. Should we have a re-run, smaller parties will determine the next president. It is therefore imperative that the public and all political cadres are educated about this requirement to avoid violence on the streets. Currently the Electoral Commission seems to ignore this sensitive reality.
Rev Dr. Kapya Kaoma
It’s 11 August, not 9 August.
But the article is spot on, there’s no single candidate who is extremely popular to get more than 50% in the first round.
FDD will support PF should re run occur. It was already know just a matter of time soon
The good thing is that ECL only needs 50% plus ONE PERSON 😀 Many people think it’s ‘51%’.
…..ECL has already won
ECL only needs to increase his 2015 score by 1.67% (50-48.33%) + 1 person. ECL was little known in 2015. HH has de-campaigned himself by appointing the insulting GBV his running mate. GBV antagonized the church last week by insulting the Bishops and a sitting president – there was a low voter turn out (including CB) in most PF Strong holds in 2015 – The Inonge Wina factor in Western Province will add a good number of votes to PF – These factors alone will easily give ECL the 1.67% + 1 person increase over the 2015 elections. SO CHANCES OF A RE-RUN ARE VERY THIN.
Elections will be on August 11 not August 9 Mr Shallow analyst
“To his credit, President Lungu started campaigning the moment he took power.”…
THAT IS THE PROBLEM! He is only interested in himself and adding to his K23 MILLION of stolen money! Instead of DOING HIS JOB that the Zambian people are paying him to do! He really has no idea of what job a President is supposed to do except campaigning for elections!
Zambia deserves a President that WORKS for THEM, not just himself. This clueless clown was a huge mistake.
Vote wisely this time!
Vote wisELy Don’t vote fullisHHly. Few hours left.
Realistically, its close to call but ELC will carry the day with or without the rerun. Chikubabe season !!!!!
ECL will win 50+1 first round,watch this space…..
Guys face facts, HH is losing whether in 1st, 2nd or 3rd round.
Very true Ecl will carry the day. Looking at the number of registered voters in pf strong holds… will sail through. They was voter apathy in pf strong holdsin 2015 where as in upnd strong hold they was 98% turn out. Watch the space so that you know that ECL is the Anoited one!!!!?
@4 Dead
All non-factual predictions. Any official polls?
This ‘analysis’ is too simplistic to be on this forum. The writer assumes static economic and social conditions and well as unchanged sentiments and demographics. Perhaps it’s a different election to be held on August 9.
Its not 50 +1 its 50% + 1! Dr, please, resubmit this essay after correcting the many errors
HH is winning mark my word.Its divine no one can stop it.
Ecl has increased his voter base by over 40% from 2015. HH equally has increased his &stupidity by 60%.
that is why you mislead HH Edgar Lungu has clearly won by 65% Its not theoretical
HH cannot win He is like trump on Jobs and Creation He cannot be trusted with national Resources and Security Like trump he is a loan shark in his dealings with companies and workers he saves
Edgar Lungu is more likeable and appealing than the FAKE HH That s why lungu wines by 65% HH He has a trance records and cannot be trusted with national resources and his ten point plan is like trump that is out of tandem with economic reality facing Zambia
Never ECL can not win.
You must be the ugly diva
Pipo lets not get carried away here. The PF guys have had a poor run in govt. But when pipo finally go to vote you ll be surprised that the state of the economy will be way down the list of the deciding factors. Much as pipo don’t want to talk about tribe, this will be one of the biggest factors – as the case is always. And you know why ECL will win, albeit with a slim margin? RB will pull the eastern vote for him – as usual Cowthern Province will turn out for HH but numbers there are finite…..Tricky but true
HH has a big haverst from NP,NWP,WP,LSK apart from ka mtendere,CP, SP,CB,half of LP then ECL remains with EP and some pockets here and there in MP
@11 mkkk
That sounds as though one candidate is unassailable. Is HH that candidate?
My humble opinion is that HH has gained more support than ever before and thus may pull a surprise especially in Lusaka, CB, and parts of Northern, Muchinga and Luapula. Watch the space
You are spot on, that is what most people are ignoring in their analysis.
Stop imaginations ba upnd your hh is useless & can’t be a leader of a nation, the way the he insulted the znbc reporter today on phone
i could not believe he can insult like that. Its difficult for me at this late hour. my wife is still surprised and suggesting we don’t travel to vote. How can he insult like GBM. The news shocked me a lot. am sure that news will cost him more than 50,000 votes. count 4 in my house. Maybe edigar insults also and no one has caught him on phone. The leaders we have are a disgrace especially UPND on insults. He had a point but wrongly put with insults
Great article, interesting analysis.
FACT REMAINS WHETHER ITS THE FIRST ROUND OR NOT PF AND ECL ARE WINNING THESE ELECTIONS!!!
ONWARDS TO VICTORY TEAM ECL/ PF!
Your analysis discounts the fact that previous elections had a strong third horse in the race. Previously, the battles were between MMD and PF, with the third horse known as UPND always capturing not less than 20%. This left 80% to be fought for between the two main parties and therefore for either one to scoop the 50% was difficult.
Going by the 2015 elections, smaller parties may garner 5% to 6% of the national total, leaving about 95% to be fought for between the 2 main contenders. In this scenario, its quite possible for one of them to scoop 50%.
Your analysis does not factor in the total annihilation of a third party in these elections, and thats why you cannot do an analysis based on 2015, 2011, or even 2008
The 2015 election over-exaggerates the popularity of UPND. Southern strongholds recorded up to 46% turnout. Some PF strongholds turnouts were 23%. Had PF strongholds turned out on better numbers, UPND would have been suffocated.
THAT is all these elections are about : TURNOUT
From the first few results that start trickling in, if you see decent turnouts in MP, LuapP, EP, NP, and even CbP know that its ECL. But if the turnouts are low like in 2015, its HH.
Remember the UPND strongholds are determined and dedicated. They will stand in queues to make their point, and tribal comments and insults have aggrieved them. Dont be surprised with 60% turnouts
Why the low PF turnouts in 2015 ? Because PF supporters were unhappy with their candidate BUT that did not mean that…
I THINK HH IS FORMING A GOVERMENT THIS YEAR,ONLY THOSE BLIND PEOPLE CAN NOT SEE.
Let this day pass, It’s taken my favorite programs off ichengelo radio. Every day it’s gbm spewing insults on this radio.
You people you don’t HH the man is full of himself what’s why he should not be allowed to come near power. Let’s vote for LUNGU tomorrow. He is a better person. I know HH personally he is not trusted and he doesn’t how to run government. He even failed to debate, edith was far much better than him. Open your eyes my country men and women.
Edgar only needs 1% and of course the eastern vote to remain in state house. Kiki Kiki Kiki Kiki
All the people from eastern province as I am from this province will by the Grace of God, vote for HH , this is a serious business. Zambians are in hurry to see this country going forward in development
Eastern province is not for Lungu or Ruphia mistake one do not under estimate people
When Sata won, the registered voters were 5 Million +. But this time there are 6.6 Million registered voters +. So it is very easy for Edgar C. Lungu to win by 65% in the first round, cos most of the high registered voters are in his stronghold.