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Saturday, August 8, 2020



President Lungu share a light moment with First Lady Esther Lungu, Vice-President Inonge Wina and his Campaign manager Samuel Mukupa
President Lungu share a light moment with First Lady Esther Lungu, Vice-President Inonge Wina and his Campaign manager Samuel Mukupa

Comparative study of election results of 2015 and 2016 in PF strongholds


When ECZ was announcing Copperbelt and Lusaka Provinces August 11, 2016 Presidential results it sounded like HH and UPND were gaining a lot of ground in PF strongholds at the expense of PF with higher numbers compared to 2015. A closer study of results, as all can find them on the ECZ website (https://www.elections.org.zm/general_election_2016.php) in these provinces and other PF strongholds, clearly indicates that ECL and PF have actually increased their margins over HH and UPND on the Copperbelt, in Lusaka, Luapula, Muchinga, Northern and Eastern Provinces. Numbers have no feelings. They just remain as they are. It should be noted that, because of new voters and a higher voter turn out obviously, this time both ECL and HH increased their numbers in these PF strongholds and nationally. It is this increase in numbers that made it sound like HH is gaining a lot of ground in PF strongholds.  The margins by which PF won these Provinces this year actually increased from what we saw in January 2015, when PF was in shambles with internal conflicts. Here are the numerical facts to highlight this point :


National margins (differences):

2015 – ECL led HH by  27,757

2016 – ECL led HH by  100,530


Lusaka Province margins:

2015 – ECL led HH by  74,799

2016 –  ECL led HH by  135,588


Copperbelt Province margins :

2015 – ECL  led HH by 135,186

2016 –  ECL led HH by 155,713


Luapula Province margins :

2015 –  ECL led HH by 70,796

2016 – ECL led HH by 169,841


Eastern Province margins :

2015 – ECL led HH by 54,522

2016 – ECL led HH by 236,928


Muchinga Province margins:

2015 – ECL led HH by 49,851

2016 –  ECL led HH by 133,584


Northern Province margins:

2015 –  ECL led HH by 72,882

2016 – ECL led HH by 155,219


Look at the numbers in the high density 7 Constituencies of Lusaka District, key battle grounds or swing Constituencies ( to borrow US election language ):


Mandebvu Constituency margins:

2015 –  ECL led HH by  19,400

2016 –  ECL led HH by  40,206


Chawama Constituency margins:

2015 –  ECL led HH by  12,208

2016 –  ECL led HH by  25,124


Lusaka Central Constituency margins:

2015 –  ECL led HH by  5,887

2016 –  ECL led HH by  11,964


Matero Constituency margins:

2015 –  ECL led HH by  18,929

2016 –  ECL led HH by  38,834


Kanyama Constituency margins:

2015 –  ECL led HH by  4,033

2016 –  ECL led HH by  5,226


Munali Constituency margins:

2015 –  ECL led HH by 12,930

2016 –  ECL led HH by  25,723


Kabwata Constituency margins:

2015 –  ECL led HH by  9,635

2016 –  ECL led HH by  16,769



While HH got higher numbers in PF strongholds this time around than in January 2015, he has in fact performed worse in these Provinces than he did last year, going by the much higher loosing margins above. ECL and PF have firmly increased their grip on these Provinces.



Study by :  Martin G. P. Mumba


    • ARREST that Martin Mumba, arrest him. No one including ECZ should be interfering to court evidence or pull pubic of the courts.
      Muvi TV is closed, but idyiots like Martin Mumba is here reading this.
      You also LT are risking that they close us down. This is our website, be cleaner.

    • @Lungu, stolen how??? your UPND agents and cadres signed and agreed on all returns – are they so dull that they witnessed falsehoods. No results can be announced without the signature of the participating party’s agents. Please do not manufacture votes which never existed.

      The signed returns at each polling station are the only witness the ConCourt will listen to, not dreamed up imaginary figures from UPND. Unless UPND had illiterates for agents who had no clue of what they were signing for.

    • So what is this piece of crap intended to achieve??? We have our case before the competent court for them to judge.

    • @esd, I was tempted to make a similar conclusion when I compared the results from the two elections. The pitfall with such a conclusion is that the voter turnout was higher in 2016 election thus making it difficult to make a like by like comparison.

    • Hahahaha! at the end he even write:…. Study by : Martin G. P. Mumba….lol!

      Useless study…. Do you know that the the margins are not because UPND lost but because the number of voters has also increased after voter registration… and also because of rigging?

      And why didn’t the ‘study’ include other provinces where PF miserably lost.

    • What the author should be telling us is not absolute differences but more in terms of one candidate’s results in proportion to the number of votes cast in each district. Then you can have some semblance of figures to compare (but still noting the increased turnout).

    • These are the good numbers for UPND lawyers to use to justify that numbers probably were inflated, if the economic situation has deteriorated, the percentages should have increased from 2015 for the opposition taking into account the economic situation and high voter turn out.

    • But these are fake results that are being disputed!!! Seriously! I thought the author was going to say something spectacular when I saw the headline… These are manipulated results and thank you very much for posting them. We will keep these as evidence of ECZ corruption because the original results are very different from these.

    • LT must also be closed for contempt of court. The matter is already in the ConCourt and here you are being unprofessional. The 2016 results on ECZ website are fake. That is why we have a petition. IBA must also close LT for unprofessional reporting.

    • PF is the only party allowed to have strong holds, for other parties, at ni tribalism. Wasn’t North Western an MMD strong hold. So these others vote for credible candidates not ba KADANSA and candidates who fail to debate issues on TV.

    • The above analysis is what shocks a lot of people with clear thinking. What is it your call stronghold other than regional based voting even for PF. Check Chitulika village and compare to Dundumweze results. This country needs to get back to the drawing board as this divide is growing and being glorified by cheap minds like the one above, from self made analyst . Zambians the time to read through peoples minds seeking for jobs in the PF or alternative government is now and ignore such people. It is sad that people are ready to do anything for a government job for wrong reasons, put simply to steal for themselves. Let love be the one speaking at all times.



    • Honestly, this is the evidence of rigging that the ConCourt needs to consider. What Mumba forgot to mention is that there are 87,000 rejected votes against 17,000 in 2015. Most of the rejected votes are in Lungu’s strongholds. In Eastern Province alone, there were 14,000 rejected votes? Are these HH’s votes that were rejected instead? And how did Lungu beat HH in Mandevu, Matero, and Munali with huge margins of 30-40,000 but only managed a measly 4,000 in Kanyama? Is it true that 12,000 votes for HH in Kanyama were binned and were only saved by Mrs Mwanawasa protesting? There’s is your rigging. What strongholds??

  2. “While HH got higher numbers in PF strongholds this time around than in January 2015, he has in fact performed worse in these Provinces than he did last year, going by the much higher loosing margins above. ECL and PF have firmly increased their grip on these Provinces.” Ok Ba Mumba, thank you.

    • All the insults Mumba is receiving do not take into account this important statement that he made. Very dull, polarized bloggers here. Mumba should have also added that in UPND strongholds, HH did extremely well with suspiciously high voter turnout.

  3. in fact severely shallow thinking. After personalizing public broadcater, closing private media, perpetrating violence forcing opposition legalia to be packed, propaganda, heavily paying musicians and other players, cancellation of opposition rallies, brutalizing supporters of opposition, the list is endless.

    Without shame in you, how do you pop from nowhere with such analysis?? Insoni eebuntu.

    • You left out the ransacking of the national treasury to buy votes besides the serious tribal campaigns.PF failed to attract voters in western &N/west because their tribal campaigns could not work in these places.Its a shame that you could even go to the extent of cheating to defeat the party you were stopping from campaigning.Its clear from these election that you cant beat UPND in a clean contest.You wont cheat forever.

  4. UPND what nice thing will ever come out of you people. What is it that is hurting so bad that you can’t use good words. Why do you want to lead people who don’t want you people. Please be kind for life to be kind with you.

  5. We have left this matter in the hands of the Courts. What point are you trying to prove with your analysis?? Let the Courts do their analysis and give final virdict. I guess they dont need your assistance.

    Iwe naba kufolesha abakutumine.

  6. Kainde Cilema may also be told that more people in those areas are regretting having not voted. the reason they voted more this time is the neganega voting of 2015. 2021 if UPND fields a tonga and seems likely to be voted as per since-2001 tradition expect bigger and more hostile turnout for UPND in the PF strongholds. They will really burry dundumwezi!

  7. Results for Lusaka district constituencies are very questionable.In Kanyama,for instance, had it not been for the timely intervention of Maureen Mwanawasa the difference could have been 18,000 in favour of PF.The 5,000 difference came about after Maureen caught them red-handed stuffing HH’s votes in a bin.Now you can just imagine what happened in other constituencies where UPND agents went to slumber.

    • But somehow UPND did not win any MPs or the mayoralty in Lusaka ka? It was just the presidency that was stolen and Maureen Mwanawasa was somehow able to count 14000 votes by herself. I guess the same thing must have happened in CB, eastern, northern, Luapula provinces it is just that Maureen was not there to save HH’s votes. Maureen who was looking after HH’s votes whilst not worrying as to whether she would be the next mayor of Lusaka or not.

    • @9.1 Mphendula.. that is the point! In fact the same Maureen was one of the first to congratulate Lungu as a winner and has been heard to be against the petition. I believe she knows that when matters get serious,she will be called as a witness to prove how she managed to find 14,000 votes,got them included to HH totals! The ballot paper for 9 Presidential candidates is quite big so to get 14,000 of those, shove them in bin should be quit a task. Where were the UPND Polling agents when all this was happening to wait for Maureen to come and discover those ballots? Then count them in record time,get them included without even putting in a formal complaint, polling agents sign the forms thereafter!?There are also issues of UPND officials caught in robbery of ECZ election paraphernalia and…

  8. In statistics and maths studies, they say numbers don’t lie and those numbers are there to prove that ECL won and defeated Ichilema by over a whopping 100 000 votes pasopo wemwana.
    The 27000 difference in 2015 blinded the Under 5 so much so that him and the cartel even started treating President Lungu and PF as underdogs but little did the realise what was on the ground.
    HH insulted the intelligence of Zambians by thinking he was the alpha and omega. In leadership, we are taught that if you want to lead be ready to be led yourself. HH doesn’t believe in this but in his own ego and God knows for what? Are we all stup1d that we went to school and can substantiate lies from truth? In physics there is a fundamental principle that states “To every action, there is an equal and opposite…

  9. UPND lost in 2015 by 3000+ votes. There was no petition. Why petition now when he has beated by more than 10 000 votes honestly.

    • Because ECZ have confessed that 8,000 of those votes were wrongly added to Ejigar in Lundazi. Also Ejigar got 1,600 votes from the smaller parties in Chingola. Where else did ECZ give him votes he did not deserve?


  11. Is analysis on these figures which have been manipulated by ECZ and PF? PFs and those (ECZ) working together to destroy democracy of Zambia must not cheat themselves that ECL won the election and that the public is unaware, we are fully aware that if ECL becomes president, then thieving is Zambia shall have been legalised. It will surely be illegal not to be a thief! This analysis is for those empty tins in PF and ECZ!

  12. GREAT JOB! Those opposing these figures have just faced to the reality that THEIR EYES have FINALLY been OPENED to the TRUTH!Superficially it looked like HH had done even in PF Strongholds but they forgot the factor the author has brought out that while HH had improved, LUNGU had done so in LEAPS and BOUNDS. The reality which UPND and its supporters are failing to see is that while HH had a very strong showing in Southern, Western and NWestern, the combined numbers of his successes got neutralized by HUGE NUMBERS in Urban Copperbelt and Lusaka that voted Lungu the margins the author has brought out. That coupled with high margins in higher populated rural provinces of Northern and Eastern and a combination of Muchinga and Luapula,nailed VICTORY for LUNGU!! It is the TRUTH!!

  13. HH lost fair and square. It is now clear, he will never ever rule Zambia. As difficult as it is for him to accept, it is game over for him. Finished.

  14. It’s like in boxing, when your trainer sees and realises that you are no match to your opponent, he quickly throws in a white towel to save your life and at that point no matter what you do as a losing boxer the referee declares the other boxer a winner.
    This is what has happened to HH and UPND, the voters rejected them and ECZ obliged by following the laid down rules and so no matter what HH and his dreamers try to do, it’s game over
    Let him try 2021 if at all he will have something left in him. ECL has a killer punch and it worked so well in 2016.

  15. Martin you’re a shallow analyst. How do you analyse numbers that are being contested. Lt how do you allow cadres on this prime space to waste our time?

  16. numbers don’t lie = truth pains. very funny to see upnd still post campaigning on vague grounds of excess regalia, hiring of musicians, poor economy (when was the economy better?)! pliz spare us the crap

  17. Whether Lungu won or lost these elections the fact is, Lungu is dull and cannot be compared to Nawakwi or HH. He is just lucky and he must thank the illiterate voters in Luapula, Muchinga and Eastern who voted on tribal line. The writer talks as if Lungu is very intelligent.

    • lungu wasn’t the one voting, why insult him. and as an eastern i wont accept you insulting me and people just as you dont want to be insulted on regional basis. comment intelligently on the issue not ifyabu dull. easy

  18. Its cheap and highly unprofessional to do an analysis with disputed and cooked figures. We know that just like in Lundazi constituency all Lungu’s votes are inflated by ghost votes while votes for HH were thrown away to reduce HH’s total votes. In Matero,Munali,Mandevu,Kanyama, Chawama etc Lungu’s votes were highly inflated by ghost votes. The G12 certificates were not properly tallied and verified. ECZ announced figures not backed by G12s and went on to post these figures on their Website and then amended unilaterally.ECZ had three set of figures for each Constituency showing that figures were certainly cooked. With the proposed recount we will see how ECZ will uncook the cooked results. ECZ bring it on!

  19. HH was invited by Mwanawasa (MHSRIEP) to become Vice President, but he refused.

    MCS (MHSRIEP) invited HH as foreseen by Mwanawasa, he again backed out.

    Therefore HH should blame himself for what is happening and not PF. But please stop that unnecessary but well planned for Amagedon.

  20. The Bible is very clear “You will know them by their fruits” look at the hatred coming from the UPND. Sorry ba under five you are no populat

  21. If really PF won why all the schemes involve especially with ECZ involvement? With all the fiasco that has transpired and the menacing by PF, if these were free elections why the panic?

  22. You are a children of one Nation. Kindly accept the outcome and move on with life.God knows why and how

  23. Please stop bringing your gods here. Christians for Jameson I beg of you. Christianity is easy to become and to leave. Only fools really think that these things are about God’s. It’s a shame to here Africans who dubbed an Israelite belief and made it there own. Like tamed animals. Anyway if God’s are king makers then who appointed Mugabe , idi amin dada, Castro, Shaka and most importantly Hitler? With 15 billion brain cells you still feel God’s should run you world. HH seems to be the rightful owner of the position based on the irregularities. Your holy bible states that whatsoever you bind on earth it is bound in the heavens. Thus when el agreed for us on the constitution it was bound in the heavens, assuming heaven’s is a place of authority. So let us all open the constitution on…

  24. Why make analysis over computer generated figures you want to call the will of the people!!! It doesn’t add up!!. We can’t tell which numbers are genuine as ECZ are still correcting the figures, the latest being the Lundazi saga!! What are shame to the democracy of Zambia!! surely God is not involved with rigging. Its cheating and taking people for granted. Its of the devil. In any case there was no point analysing these disputed election figures. Simply shows cover up..

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