Fitch Ratings says the opposition’s decision to challenge the result of Zambia’s recent presidential elections will delay agreement on IMF support, although we think a programme is still likely after groundwork was laid earlier this year.
It says if successfully implemented, an IMF programme would mitigate external financing risks and support foreign exchange reserves, reducing pressure on Zambia’s sovereign rating.
An IMF visit in March and preliminary discussions in April set the stage for formal programme negotiations after August’s elections.
However, it says these may be on hold until a post-election government is firmly in place.
The Electoral Commission of Zambia said on 15 August that Edgar Lungu of the Patriotic Front had been re-elected with 50.4% of the vote.
His closest opponent, Hakainde Hichilema of the United Party of National Development (UPND), disputed the outcome, and on Friday the UPND filed a petition asking the Constitutional Court to nullify the vote.
This has delayed Lungu’s inauguration.
According to Zambian law, the opposition’s petition must be settled within 15 days of its receipt.
If the Constitutional Court nullified the result, a new election would have to be held within 30 days.
The run-up to polling had seen clashes between the two parties’ supporters and a 10-day suspension of campaigning in Lusaka, although EU observers said that election day was “generally well-administered and peaceful”.
The rating agency says any lasting deterioration in political stability as a result of disputes about the outcome would be negative for Zambia, where political stability has been much greater than in ‘B’ and ‘BB’ category peers.
It added that the inauguration of the new government once the challenge to the results is resolved would pave the way for formal programme talks.
“Ultimately, an agreement looks likely whichever candidate emerges as president,” it said.
The IMF said in March that there was “a shared understanding” of Zambia’s economic challenges, and the government subsequently indicated that it would pursue electricity and fuel tariff reform and amend the mineral royalty tax regime.
Edgar Lungu said after the vote that “tough decisions will be made” to support growth and control expenditure.
Hakainde Hichilema has said that the UPND and the IMF are “singing from the same hymn sheet”.
An IMF programme would provide balance of payments support and unlock other sources of external financing, easing the risks from falling export earnings as lower copper prices and falling copper production have pushed the current account into deficit.
Subsidy and mining tax reform would contain fiscal deterioration caused by lower growth and mineral royalties and a failure to scale back capex.
An IMF programme would also provide an anchor for fiscal policy.
The IMF has identified deficit reduction as a key priority, but previous consolidation efforts have been slow or as with plans to raise electricity tariffs reversed.
Fitch forecasts the 2016 deficit to be 7.1% of GDP and financing options are limited
It says improving Zambia’s external and fiscal positions could ease pressure on the country’s ‘B’/Negative sovereign rating.
“Our revision of the Outlook to Negative in February reflected persistent and large fiscal deficits and a doubling of gross general government debt since 2012. Our sensitivity analysis shows that in the absence of fiscal consolidation that reduced the primary budget deficit, GGGD could eventually rise to 100% of GDP, which we would view as incompatible with the current rating.”
Worth noting even though we can run this country without IMF support but the crux of the matter is that even the IMF/Fitch Rating group is asking the losers to back off so that we can move on with our lives … Life Is A Serious Enterprise!
Hiwe Hi.diot! How can things that you never Owned be stolen from you? You want Zambia to fail but you are the one who will fail!
If anything the people who tried to rig in the ended election are the UPND.
The came up with all kinds fake alarming stories, including beating up those they perceived to be PF in southern province,
UPND also campaign on the polling day chasing any PF suspect in some polling stations in southern province.
They also brought a lot of false rumors and accusations and allegations all of which were found to be false.
Even as late as yesterday, GBM was still lying – now to the courts.
GBM lied that ECZ had announced 29,979 votes for ECL in Lundazi, and claims that they have just changed to 21,979 votes.
The above is a total fabrication without aorta of remorse. ECZ announced 21,979 for ECL and 4,975 for HH and there has been no change, as some of us were recording every announced result.
And why lie in that fashion even if you want to pretend that you are dull, because records can easily be played back and if you are normal you get imbarassed.
This why even the so called petition is a mere waste of time meant only to quench Mushipe’s emotions, of course through financial gain.
Actually it is rigging which dununas everything reverse.
So, the UPND did not manage to rig sufficiently to win the elections.
The gap between ECL and HH would have been enormous if the UPND did not apply their riging tactics.
ECL was going to reach even over 55% to 60%. HH used everything from threatening amagedon to threatening voters in southern province to ambushing ECZ staff involved in transportation of election materials.
Including threating PF supporters in souther provonce that thry would lose tgeir lives if the went to vote.
I SIDO MARK has been quite observing the events un folding.I have come up with a viable Agric project with help of the Koreans to revolutionize Southern ,Western,Central,parts of Lusaka and Northwestern provinces.The project will have two components the soft loans,Support component in terms of technical skills and innovations,this will also include processing machinery.The Northern region will be targeted for Bee keeping and pineapple production.The western cattle for beef and dairy,sugarcane,rice and cashew nut production and processing.The southern for cattle for beef and dairy production and processing,Arable agriculture(multi crops).I have discovered that politics is a sheer wast of time in zambia since other tribes feel presidency is their preserve.It better to help my own.
All I can say is PF = Borrowing for Consumption! No attempt had been made to reduce the cost of Government under PF / ECL. Why borrow more Money to tip into a bottomless pit? Fix the problem first and then re finance, dont just throw Money at it! Running a Country is no different to running a Business or a Household for that matter. The Books must Balance!
IMF have got what they wanted. They pushed Euro Bonds on dull Sata (MHSRIP). Everyone celebrated when they came disguised as Euro Bond. Those millions are gone, energy problems not solved, many other tu ma project not done or completed. IMF is bad news. I don’t blame them, after all they are the business of lending out money. They can only survive and make profit on clueless countries like Zambia.
THE IMF ADVISERS AND RATING AGENCIES SAY VERY LITTLE ABOUT MILLIONS OF DOLLARS MINING COMPANIES DONT PAY IN TAXES AND THE MILLIONS STASHED IN TAX HAVENS.
MEANWHILE THEY WILL TALK ABOUT “FISCAL CONSOLIDATION” OR SUCH FANCY LANGUAGE MEANING ORDINARY ZAMBIANS SHOULD BE SQUEEZED THROUGH CUTS IN SUBSIDIES. THEY HAVE A ONE TRACK MIND!!
WE HAVE RIGHT TO SAY NO!! AND NO AGAIN!!
@WISE ONE
SATA WAS FORCED TO BORROW FOR INFRASTRUCTURE DEVELOPMENT WHICH THOSE WHO WANT TO SEE CAN SEE.
SATA HAD NO CHOICE BECAUSE DUE TAXES ARE NOT PAID BY MINING COMPANIES WHO HIDE THEIR PROFITS THROUGH INFLATED OVERSEAS INVOICES (CALLED TRANSFER PRICING) AND OTHER NEFARIOUS SCHEMES IN TAX HAVENS. ITS A BILLION DOLLAR INDUSTRY SUPPORTED MAINLY BY BRITAIN.
GOD BLESS YOU.
Eating and waiting
(HH) BURIAL POSTPONED
We regret to inform the nation that the funeral for opposition leader Kaponya (HH) has been postponed to next month because he is still alive on life support.
The funeral will be held as soon as he dies from the shock of losing elections. All mourners are advised to camp in advance at his house in Kabulonga.
UPND Media Team
How did Zambia get itself in this financial mess in the first place? Without good financial management and discipline ,IMF money will be squandered in the same way the Euro-Bond money was wasted. U need Economic and Financial Managers to turn around the Zambian economy with IMF money while implementing austerity reforms.
The mess that Zambia has become with its leaky begging copper bowl to the IMF was due to the “dusty street” party. Do not be happy or too quick rejoicing,for,all Zambian’s shall be crying after this evil private bank IMF and individual shareholders squeeze the life from this country. Remember this is not a soccer competition but everyone’s future prospects at stake here.
Those euphoric at the prospect of five more MEDIOCRE years, care little about financial irresponsible and chaotic pseudo development prone leadership. It is the ones at the bottom who will feel the worst pain while those who sleep with full bellies will tell them to pray on it.
Like having pocket money kept for you because left to your own devices you make wild choices, lol. I hate waiting for injections. This is like having a nurse holding up an extra long needle then breaking off to take an urgent call. The needle is just there, growing in size as your imagination kicks in. Darn. I need coffee…
A group of southern and western think tanks have come up with a way of working with hardworking youths in the Northwestern zambia.We want to defend ourselves from the poverty which the thieves in PF have brought.When they will be crying and dying from malnutrition will be exporting,beef,poultry products,bacon,Honey,Milk products such cheese,Butter,and yogurt.processed millet,maize,wheat,Sugarcane,pineapple,Banana,Orange,water melon and many more processed food products.Since production will be in individual hands as well as cooperatives will decide the prices for local consumption.Research has shown that the target groups are hardworking and not crooks they will pay back the soft loans.Mean while let those fintu Lungu continue eating IMF loans.
Lead the way. When it works it could serve as impetus to ensure the blueprint ends the starvation on the other side. My undying love for Barotse does not override my love for every kid in Zambia, who never asked for crappy leaders to forget all about them. I do like the dream though. Make it a reality and many hands of all persuasions will help.
PF will always mourn over anything and blame UPND; how you mourn over debt when you borrowed relentlessly when UPND and others advised otherwise is amazing. Amazingly, even very learned and economically exposed cadres mourn like the unlearned citizens in the streets, when will they ever behave differently from those?
Unfortunately some never learn and think a modernising/ emergent nation is built on the sidewalks of a freshly tarred road which at the end of it offers no real employment,security,schools,clinics etc anyway. The only difference is that one reachs the same dead end quicker in those broken pata-pata’s while not having to deal with sore feet. In short the money should have been invested in people not on some road in the first instance. But can one make money from people vs inanimate objects?
One would think IMF is doing them a favour…in fact its like being sent to court by yr debtors because you can not manage your finances and the court arranges repayment plan. There is nothing to be proud of here…funny how all the parties are now praising the devil IMF when they never mentioned them in their campaign.
We should go back to constitution to limit MPs and presidential candidates. Somebody should try twice and leave for others. Imagine if UNIP were given to fresh bloods what of HP.? Its good we know HH
We dont need IMF!50 years after independence running back to IMF is like going back to stay at your father’s house after he has educated you and found you a job.But knowing PF,they will leave Zambia wallowing in debt after they leave power.Shame.
Shut up leave us alone we dont need your help. Infact Police should even arrest you for commenting on the matter which is in court. suppose there was a rerun can you say the rerun is delaying your programme.
We kasungu kabula amano.
UPND – Goodbye guys – Kachemas
Ha ha
HH forgets that if it weren’t for malpractice in Southern Provinces Edgar would have won by land slide.
What malpractices you dunderhead -if there were not malpractices by ECZ in Lusaka HH would have won!
These are Proverbs and knowing the dullness from HH and brainless Fat Albert they can’t realise that the world is telling them that their petition is useless and waste of time cause their intelligence has confirmed that President Lungu is the legitimately elected President for the next 5 years.
May the constitutional courts quickly conclude the case. And they have only two possible choices, uphold President Lungu’s election or call for a rerun, which Lungu will win off course because he won parliamentary majority and more provinces already. UPND chancers should not hold our country at ransom, we need to get down to business now and clean up Sata and Guy Scott’s mess.
Business of plundering the ecomony with loans we cannot pay on end?
But, why do need IMF support all is well?
Somebody should answer as to why we should run back to the IMF, not long after the structural adjustment programme. Why so soon after the debt forginess and write-off?
Let us not pretend – it as bad leadership, bad governance, we don’t know how to govern ourselves – Mr magande, please tell them!
Unfortunately Zambia is in deep $..t 15 million population GDP $26 billion p.a. debt $8-$10billion vs Greece enslaved to IMF GDP $400 billion p.a. 9 million population part of EU and they are considered bankrupt and finished along with the rest of the EU PIGS ( Portugal,Ireland and Spain) all bigger economies than Greece. Do the maths:there are individual companies,malls etc in those broke countries that have annual turnovers in excess of Zambia ‘s GDP. Just to put things in perspective for the less informed as to what odds Zambia is facing.
GGGD = Goody Goody Gum Drops
SIDO MARK we need to talk. I had this similar idea. We can give them the Parliament and control the money.
southern, central,western and northwestern economic co-operation. The rest can join at a very high fee.
The Billionairre Politician Bemba of DRC thought he was untouchable. Where is he??? Serving time at the Hague in an Orange Uniform. Soon Hakainde Savimbi Hichilema will join him. Already the international community has started seeing through Hakainde Savimbi Hichilema. He is a violent and blood thirsty man who shouldn’t be trusted with the leadership of Zambia. They are slowly disengaging. His rantings have no space on BBC or CNN now.
The IMF also changing gears.
Zambians should understand that IMF financial resources are not a panacea to Zambia’s ills. What u need are Economic and Financial Managers to run the affairs of the state prudently. A continuation of the Chipante pante way of doing things will never turnaround the economy. Under PF Zambia borrowed at least $5 billion but there is nothing to show for it. Under visionless and clueless Lungu ,Zambians should expect their lives to get worse. The economic mess that u see in Zimbabwe today will become a picnic under dictator Lungu in Zambia. To be warned is to be forewarned.
@ ECONOMIST
UNFORTUNATELY YOU WILL NOT SEE ANY DEVELOPMENT UNDER PF IF YOU DON’T WANT TO SEE IT AND YET THE ROADS, SCHOOLS AND HEALTH CENTERS ARE PHYSICALLY THERE EVEN IN SOUTHERN, WESTERN AND N WESTERN PROVINCES.
FORTUNATELY ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL MANAGERS ARE NOT FOUND IN UPND ALONE, AND THANK GOD FOR THAT.
GOD BLESS YOU.
We are doing this country a favour if anything. The pf have taken us back to UNIP days such that the IMF cannot wait to chew us alive with their structural adjustment programs. Surely is there anything to celebrate by the pf when it comes to IMF support? Very poor mentality brought about by having a poor leader with poor thinking capacity. vipuba
When you say pf has taken you backwards where were you before. Unip coupon times? Privatisation of chiluba? Task force without results of mwanawasa ? Bwezani & sons limited 3yrs? We are not in all these situations, we are advancing. The only people who can’t see that this country is moving forward are those whose preoccupation is changing government. Western & North western are better than they were under the unip & mmd governments. We have more schools & healthy centres in the country than we had under unip & mmd. Sir hatred is not good, yes theres room to do more but to pf has taken us backwards is a big lie. If HH can sort out unemployment his companies should have been the highest employer of labour in this country. He has been running his companies for many years without clear…
Dangote came into zambian market and affected the cement prices. If HH is as intelligent as you parade him why has he failed to dictate the price of beef in favour of consumers like Dangote did. Same to your GBM why has he failed to reduce meali meal prices. Because they say it is not global ecomical factors affecting Zambia but poor leadership. Why is it that them with quality leadership have failed to employe many zambians, failed to reduce prices and train more young zambians in what they do? The reason is simple, they are selfish people.
At the rate we’re going it will be goody $..t drops.
Dominion the beef industry is regulated by ZAMBEEF who import cattle into the country while we have our own cattle here – they are in the PF’s pocket and are allowed to do what they want and do not allow any other players into the market. Mealmeal prices are controlled by the govertment !!
THE WAITING IS GOOD. IT ALLOWS THE LOSERS TO HEAL AND REFLECT ON THEIR ACTIONS. AS IT SINKS IN THEIR HEADS THAT ECL IS OUR PRESIDENT FOR THE NEXT FIVE YEARS. ITS QUITE PAINFUL WE UNDERSTAND.
Let the courts decide the outcome. Blind tribalism will be the of this country. We do not want another Zimbabwe failed project.
The bible says the borrower is a slave to the lender. It is amazing to watch people celebrate their enslavement. It reminds of the those Israelites who wanted to go back to Egypt after being free by Moses.
Unfortunately in Zambia failure is celebrated and mediocraty praised.
The PF leadership was claiming that the economy was on the right track, which economy were they referring to? Zambian economy or in their personal pockets? Anyway, it was don’t kubeba and we have been dununa reversed back to STRUCTURAL ADJUSTMENT PROGRAM PART II. Country men and women buckle up and brace for a 5 years rough ride. At this moment, we needed a decisive leader who has the confidence of the co-operating partners to negotiate for a better package. Mark my words. Zambia for all Zambians.
Here comes IMF, back to mabamba ya Shapiro again. I bet PF cadres are going to have a road show. Who else is invited?
This is what a cold silent war is. Please lawyers get your work done quickly so that we can get our lives back. Our land needs a sown in president, not this Cohabiting state we have been subjected too. .NO SECURITY,NO RESPECT OR VISION. Mr. Edgar Lungu was declared president, but he also cannot carry our his work freely. This is causing stress for him and all of us well meaning Zambians who want to see more developmental changes.We are in the state of LIMBO. GET IT OVER WITH ALREADY…
Too stressed to comment
Let it delay why should we be in a hurry now? When the Government was wasting the money they borrowed din’t they think we would be broke later. Don’t even publish such things. To do so is a Bemba way of thinking ( usually without considering the future – Kaponya type – FIKAI SOLVER)
@Mwits. Leave central province out of your divisions and rebellious spirit. We are hard working people who don’t rely on gov’t for handouts. Whichever way, NO gov’t will take u out of poverty.
The Bible says, ‘out of your toil you will eat’. Political parties come and go. Where is UNIP? Where is MMD? Zambia remains the same. So think beyond political parties, regions, beyond tribalism and focus on unity and hard work. Good luck Zambia and God bless.