Zambia’s foreign exchange revenues could increase in 2017 as the price of copper rose at the end of 2016.
The increase occurred after U.S incoming President, Donald Trump, announced the construction of various infrastructures in his country.
Another factor behind the increase is the significant surge in Chinese demand which represents about half of world’s demand.
In this context, analysts’ forecasts are very optimistic.
U.S investment bank Goldman Sachs said a ton of copper will go for $6,200.
Molly Shut, Analyst at BMI Research, even advanced that copper’s global market will be in deficit by 2019.
Operation-wise, giants of the sector also share this optimism.
Andrew Cole, Chief Analyst at Metal Bulletin Research said many investors were building treasury to acquire mining assets.
BHP Billiton, world’s second largest, listed, copper producer, stated in its annual report that it plans to increase its exploration expenditures by 29% in 2017, and invest hundreds of millions to find copper and oil deposits.
If the projections came true, Zambia could achieve balance in its public accounts.
The nation suffered the slump in the price of copper from which it gets almost 70% of its foreign exchange revenues.
Turnovers of other sectors slumped due to a monetary crisis which weakened the Kwacha.
On the capitals market, the Lusaka Securities Exchange’s major index was the worst of all African stock exchanges.
However, the Central Bank of Zambia, in its latest report on monetary policy, provided a positive mid-term outlook explaining its stance by an increase of mineral resources, import stability and lower inflation pressure.
Nevertheless, it maintained its policy rate at 15.5% and allows commercial banks to easily access its refinancing services.
(Ecofin Agency)
Optimism about surge in Chinese copper demand, which represents about half of world’s demand, is good and rational, because it is consistent with China’s record.
But, optimism about increase in copper demand based solely on U.S incoming President Donald Trump’s announced construction of various infrastructure in his country during his campaign trail is COMPLETELY IRRATIONAL. As every level headed adult is already aware, Trump is already flip-flopping on most of his campaign promises. and he is not even sworn-in yet, e.g. :-
1. Completely repeal and replace Obamacare,…..(Now, only modify it)
2. Build a wall along US-Mexico Border……………….(Now, only in parts)
3. Deport undocumented Immigrants. ………………..(No credible plan)
4. Appoint Prosecutor to Investigate Clinton ………. (Now, U-turn…
Cont’d…
5. Temporarily Ban Muslims from entering the US .. (No credible plan)
6. Get rid of NAFTA and TPP………………………… (Now, U-turn)
7. Cut Taxes ……………………………………… …..
8. Resist climate change deals ……………………..
9. Tear up Iran Deal ………………………………….. (No plan B)
10. Renegotiate NATO ………………………………….. (Now, not sure)
11. Repair infrastructure ……………………………….
Trump is a loose cannon who can unashamedly u-turn on anything by a mere tweet, and swear he never made any such promise.
I made this prediction last year even before Trump was elected- the archives don’t lie!
I predicted we would achieve a single digit figure on inflation by end of 2016 and that occurred!
I predicted we would see a rise in Copper on the back of infrastructure projects mainly in the US and that has occurred!
I hereby predict by March the USD to be at K6!
2020vision bakamba taibepa and PF govt hard at work!