Stanbic Bank has projected a stronger and more stable Zambian economy and local currency in 2017.
The bank’s Head of Global Markets, Victor Chileshe, says the current economic trajectory shows that the country is effectively dealing with the economic shocks it suffered for most of 2015 and 2016 from power deficits, low copper prices, weak exchange rates as well as the general elections that caused economic uncertainty.
“The economy is projected to grow by 4.2 percent this year, and key to this is what happens in the mining sector,” said Mr Chileshe.
“We have had more rains and we are likely to have more consistent power supply to the mines. Copper prices are also likely to hold firm. Overall we don’t see the shocks of 2015 and 2016 coming through this year and the extractive industries can now focus on driving their efficiencies and making their operations more robust to be able to survive any price eventualities the London Metal Exchange will bring to them,” he said.
Copper prices have held firmly above US$5,500 per metric tonne after dipping below US$4,500 around June 2016. Mr Chileshe said the bank projected prices to breach US$6,500 later in 2017.
He also said the bank’s view was strengthened by happenings in the global economy, with an expected growth in refined copper production in China, the world’s largest consumer of copper.
Mr Chileshe was speaking to the media at the conclusion of Stanbic’s Mining and Economic Roadshows held this week in North-Western, Copperbelt and Lusaka provinces.
The roadshows were the bank’s medium-term temperature gauge on the mining industry, the country’s largest industry contributing to more than 70 percent of export earnings.
Mr Chileshe said Stanbic Bank also expected the local currency to be fairly stable this year on the back of a stable mining industry.
“We’ll see a bit of depreciation here and there but those will be sideward movements. We don’t see definite up and down movements. This will help businesses plan better,” he said.
Buttressing Mr Chileshe’s sentiments, Stanbic’s Head of Corporate and Investment Banking Helen Lubamba said the Zambian economy had come stronger out of the recent external shocks it suffered.
“We are seeing some green shoots that play key role in informing our optimism for 2017. Copper prices are higher and more stable; the currency has also strengthened and is more stable,” she said.
She said as a result of the stability, inflation, interest rates as well as yields on Government Bonds and Treasury Bills were steadily declining.
“We should all be looking at the positive side of where we are going rather than being dejected by a few signs of negativity,” she said.
Ms Lubamba said for Zambia to leverage its current economic position, it needed to improvement its local manufacturing and rump up its exports to earn more foreign exchange.
To the banker only. How can it not be stronger in your eyes with 50% interest rates you charge on loans?
2020vision as accurate as ever!
As we predicted last year all macro economic parameters are now showing recovery! These improvements must now trickle to the micro economy!
The archives don’t lie, we saw this anticipated improvement last year!
More must be done still! And we thank God for
answering our prayers! Govt must adopt radical methods- remove allowances, remove luxury vehicles, cut travel abroad etc use that money on schools, hospitals, entrepreneurship!
Bar force majeure … these estimates are right within the right explanations as derivative analysis of the fundamentals show. The only worry is that sentimental analysis shows that the functions of consumption are lagging behind the fundamentals among the same people of the Zambian Enterprise.
So, only the Chief Marketing Officer (ECL) can explain these issues to the lay person in their own language. We experts may have our own way of analyzing data, but the general populace has no clue what fundamental analysis is.
In fact, one of the failures of the Obama Presidency is said to be lack of engagement with the American people. President Obama inherited a total economic mess, turned it around very quickly but he lacked the ability to explain his achievements to the American people…
Continued …
In fact, one of the failures of the Obama Presidency is said to be lack of engagement with the American people. President Obama inherited a total economic mess, turned it around very quickly but he lacked the ability to explain his achievements to the American people which almost cost him his re-election.
It took Bill Clinton (commonly known as the Secretariat) to explain the kind of strides Obama had made for him to finally gain momentum for re-election and the rest is history. ECL needs to jump on these fundamentals that are well within his favor while sentimentals are still behaving otherwise.
Ronald Reagan understood this game more than any other American President, he used them fundamentals to change and inspire the sentimentals that led to technical analysis…
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Ronald Reagan understood this game more than any other American President, he used them fundamentals to change and inspire the sentimentals that led to technical analysis proving what the fundamentals always showed.
Even England’s Winston Churchill against all odds understood that and managed to change British sentimentals to his advantage. It is time, ECL starts a national tour to speak directly to the smart people of the Zambian Enterprise to explain what is these numbers mean.
Numbers don’t lie but leadership is required at the top to explain these things to the grass roots not just the National Assembly (great speech last time by the way) but to the people themselves. These people need to hear from their President in villages, towns, Cities and Provinces…
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These people need to hear from their President in villages, towns, Cities and Provinces.
Such hope increases energy, helps people to focus and everyone gets lined up in the same direction and the end of the day makes everyone aspire to contribute to the Gross National Product (GNP). It is that inspiration that brings in the numbers for the Gross Domestic Product (GDP).
Great job Victor and Helen … a little bullish but that’s what my own analysis shows as well and numbers don’t lie.
Kikiki bankers living in cuckoo land where they get bonuses by sucking the poor man dry. In well functioning nations that’s where the government plays a role by protecting the poor man and ensuring good quality of life. Meanwhile in Zambia we have a president who would rather persecute enemies and fly around while his people starve.
The Lord our God answering prayers. All glory belongs to Him. We have been in prayer mode to overcome these challenges for the past 2 years. There is even more blessings the Lord is still releasing ober our land, for the Lord’s plan is to prosper this God chosen country, Zambia! God Bless Zambia!
Amen …
Indeed with your above libor lending rates why not!
u are a fake accountant. stanbic bank u are useless you don’t even give us loans and you are there telling pipo lies, fake bank.
@2020 vision what is the kwacha in march ,5, what is the price of mealie meal. 2020 vision maybe but aSELECTIVE MEMORY
Wow , the President of Zambia his excellency is described, by one of his supporters, as the CHIEF MARKETING OFFICER. So who is the Chief executive officer.
Nice touch using Force Majeure. Gives a ring of intellect
Thought i would google force majeure, NEZ can you please google and add your insightful take on Mumba snr’s use
in his article. I notice negligence is not covered
Overall, bankers beat a good tune. But this isn’t the same tune that people on the street dance to. We dance to high cost of public transport, inefficiencies in public services such as crime prevention, sanitation, healthcare and water reticulation. These corporates speak the same big language as politicians. It’s our loss really.
God bless Zambia! Psalm 92:12-15
@B R Mumba, Sr
How do you Compare Zambia and Lungu to the USA and Obama? This is not like with like and is the worst form of analysis by the so called expert. In the future if wish to make comparison, please compare Zambia and this Lungu to Zimbabwe or if you wish to Botswana or Rwanda or any of the African countries.
When are we zambians going to learn and stop the over reliance on mining and its derivative products? Sometime last year, ECL like many of the other presidents before him adamantly talked and promised a diversified-based-economy. But what do we see is the usual trend of undermining efforts that are critical to diversification.
last farming season for example we wetinessed delay in farming inputs and to add salt to an injury, eratic farming input services such as unprecendented levels of loadsheding never seen before anywhere except in zambia. The 73.8% of GDP accounting for copper does not do us any good and infact is an increase in copper reliance from past years were on average copper accounted for 60% of GDP.
What then will be the repurcations if China, the main country of…