The latest national Afrobarometer survey has shown that ordinary Zambians see that the country’s democracy is beginning to erode.
The results of the Afrobarometer were released in Lusaka today.
In face-to-face interviews in April 2017, two out of three Zambians say their country is headed in the wrong direction.
This is a sharp reversal from 2012, when only 29 percent felt that way.
The survey results show that, while Zambians remain firmly committed to democratic ideals, they worry that, in practice, their own democracy has begun to erode.
They recognize that political space is closing with regard to basic rights such as freedom of speech.
They assess the performance of the incumbent negatively, especially in terms of economic management, corruption control, and police repression.
In response, Zambian citizens – notably those with most education, but less so for those with limited schooling – are sounding an alarm.
They are reiterating solid and sustained support for institutional checks and balances and a firm rejection of one-man rule.
Large majorities say that their national economy is underperforming (60 percent) and that the government is doing poorly at creating jobs (77 percent), narrowing income gaps (80 percent) and keeping prices stable (81 percent).
And two out of three Zambians believe official corruption increased (“somewhat” or “a lot”) over the past year, while 70 percent consider that the government is handling the fight against official corruption “fairly badly” or “very badly.
A similar proportion say they fear retaliation or other negative consequences if they report incidents of corruption.
Despite the economic challenges, Zambians remain strongly committed to the ideals of democracy, according to the April survey.
They overwhelmingly prefer democracy to any other form of government (81 percent) and reject authoritarian systems such as one-party rule (82 percent), military rule (92 percent) and rule by a big-man dictator (92 percent, up from 87 percent in 2012).
Most Zambians favor checks on the president’s executive powers: 64 percent think Parliament should monitor the president and 71 percent think he should always obey the courts.
And 84 percent favor a limit of two five-year terms for the presidency.
But further survey responses suggest Zambians aren’t seeing these principles in practice, and confidence in the quality of the country’s democracy is declining.
- Only half are satisfied with “the way democracy works” in Zambia, down from 68 percent in 2012.
- This sharp downward trend is echoed in the proportion who see their country as a “full” or almost full democracy, which fell from 76 percent to 59 percent over the past five years.
- Only 60 percent of Zambians see President Lungu’s election in 2016 as free and fair, compared to 86 percent approval for the 2011 contest that first elected President Sata.
- Almost half of all citizens (47 percent) say they “personally fear becoming a victim of political intimidation or violence” during elections.
- The proportion expressing a need to “be careful what they say about politics” has risen 10 points, from 62 percent to 72 percent, between 2012 and 2017.
- Barely one in three Zambians (36 percent) feel comfortable in offering criticism of the president.
Afrobarometer is a pan-African, non-partisan research network that conducts public attitude surveys on democracy, governance, economic conditions, and related issues across more than 30 countries in Africa.
It conducts face-to-face interviews in the language of the respondent’s choice with nationally representative samples of citizens aged 18 years and older.
A sample of 1,200 respondents yields country-level results with a margin of sampling error of +/-3% at a 95% confidence level.
Below is the link to the full report
http://afrobarometer.org/sites/default/files/publications/Dispatches/ab_r7_dispatchno157_zambia_democracy_at_a_crossroads.pdf
Wait for the PF nutcases to say HH paid for this survey….
Hh and upnd have greatly contributed to the erosion of our democracy. Opposition also are part of the team in terms of democracy but when you have an opposition leader who is a champion in insulting and disrespecting leadership then such are the results you get. This survey was conducted before he was imprisoned. From the time of his imprisonment to date our economy has faired very well. People are now living in peace and social political life has greatly improved.
# 1.1 5TUPID 1MBECILE
HH oval head
UPND have been in opposition for the past 20 yrs and never have we seen such divisions, tribal hatred and errosions of democracy , why now ? Is it Mr lungu ?
When u pick a president from a TAVERN, what do you expect? Then to make the mattress wet, he goes & surrounds himself with THUGS like Kaizer Zulu, Ex-katondo street dealer Kapyongo, Diarrhoea-Mouth Mumbi Phiri, Fr Bwalya, abena “Fake Dr” Bowman Lusambo.
KK was a Grade-9 drop-out but he covered up by picking advisors from honorable, educated, experienced, honest men & women. Not this VISIONLESS DRUNK.
Not that he paid for this survey, but it was authored by upnd media and forwarded to the hippies. Many contributions to this survey are from cry babies and therefore it is one sided as usual. I give these hippies seven months from now and they should come back and apologize after finding that the country is as peaceful as ever and an economic boom never seen before.
+/-3% at a 95% confidence level, in simple language means…you would get the same results 95% of the time no matter how many times you repeated the survey. The result is statistically significant.
Fake research and totality biased.
This is a true reflection of people’s feelings for this country. Truly non partisan.
the people you consider enemies of PF actually love its president and its party because they keep on telling you where things are going wrong but you call them names, bitter, tonga etc. apakomaila nondo ninshi pali ubulema.
Lungu should not take Zambians for granted just like his godfather RB did in 2011. If he doesn’t change the kaponyas, he is going to Chawama in 2021.
You can’t take a sample of 1,200 respondents and assume that what you have found is true with the rest of the population of over 15,000,000 people and give your statistics a margin of sampling error of +/-3%, that is wrong. I would have been comfortable with your sampling error of +/-3%, had you interviewed over 5,000,000 respondents.
First of all you sample adults (in most cases of voting age). So there is no way that the sampling frame can be 15,000,000
Secondly, a survey is designed to be representative. A sample of 5,000,000 is not only outrageous but cant qualify to be a sample given that the sampling frame is about 6,000,000
If you are not satisfied, why dont you conduct your own survey. We do have Bernadette Deka and the PMRC who can conduct a counter survey
The survey took place in Livingstone and parts of Mazabuka!
Please go to school. Or maybe go back n learn how these things work.
Well, @Peter Njobvu, the same scientific methods that are used to determine what sample size must be taken are what caused the 2015 UK election polls, the 2016 Brexit polls and the 2016 USA election polls e.t.c to turn out very wrong. I guess they are now ancient and outdated and could be the reason why polls conducted in developed countries are turning out to be wrong…….the more reason why I suggested getting a bigger sample.
The extrapolation is waaaaaaay too much. 1200 sample size to make an estimation of 15,000,000 people? I don’t buy it.
Why not make a 3% of each district in Zambia according to District population and cover rural, peri-urban and urban along with employment status (self/ GRZ/ private/unemployed). Then maybe your results would be better representative of Zambia.
I don’t need a survey to figure this out. We have been saying this for years now. It is just that Zambian are cowards otherwise in other countries we would have seen a coup
NEZ that’s anarchy. You don’t stay in Zambia
@ 3 NEZ, the same you are supporting which is flawed as outlined by @2 Basebenza has rejected coups, which are associated with treason! Does that ring a bell? Only rejects of democracy would want to usurp power!!
NEZ thinks like a small child no wonder he belongs to under 5 party, his comments are always outrageous. How can such a person be a leader? No wonder u5 party will never rule Zambia.
useless survey…1200 people cannot represent the views of over 17000000 zambians. go away!!
It is a SAMPLE!
Understand what they are saying!
It is painful to be PF, dull is an understatement. In statistic there is what is called sample size that can be extrapolated. Check Gallop Polls and see how many people the sample to give polling data in the USA
Obatala you are a f00l to assume i am a PF cadre. suffice to say that sample size was too small. Go away
Yes you probably are a PF cadre and yes you probably are as dull as any PF supporter. Wish I could ask you to go away but you will probably turn violent.
@dudelove what an imbec1le you are. i am neither PF nor UPND but i can see how foolish supporters of the perpetual LOSERS in UNPD are. you think you hold the monopoly of wisdom…just look how dull your MPs are…your leader worse no wonder he is where he is. Id10t
So someone has decided to fabricate and engineer some useless statistics with a long term view of wrestling the country away from its owners? Tell these people to do the same survey in the US or Russia and see if they dare publish the results of their findings?
Just Google you will find thousands all over the world.
Probably he sampled only among Upnd supporters. These are the only ones who believe democracy means having HH at Plot 1.
Please let us reduce on been partisan is this sample true. If you ask me it is search you will find.
You see, the beneficiaries of corruption are the main resident deniers on LT……
Though the sample survey is small, it is still saying SOMETHING. I would advise all the small minds debating on this blog to be open minded and debate objectively, and not debate on which side you belong.
We need to introduce college vote in the zambia. the majority kaponyas votes has costed the development of this country.
its true many people are not happy
Sample is too small. They should have interviewed not less than 3,000 people from each of the 10 provinces to convince me. These “international” organisations are becoming too brash and less professional in their operations.
Ba PF cadres this is a respected institution they have been doing this for years. Sometimes learn to take criticism and change for the better or you will end up like MMD. Oh sorry you are already half MMD with your godfather Rupiah!!!! I should say you will be completely MMD.
Ok that is a sample conducted in dundumwezi. Now give us a sample from kitwe.
But we had a ward by elections in kitwe two months after the August,2016 general election tell me the results who won?
@1 Spaka, no sir, Zambians are much more intelligent than that. Obviously we do not know who Barometer is and their authenticity. They could be a form of tye disgraced LAZ or their survey could have been conducted in an area or on a sample with specific political leanings. However that is beside the point that I want to make and have always made even before the 2016 elections. This is that no matter how bad the socio-economic-political climate is in the country, the majority of Zambians do not see how UPNDonkeys can be the alternative government, far from it. Just as an example, how a well known corrupt element like GBM could be underfive’s preferred choice of chief partner/running mate/vice president of Zambia/head of government/potential president of Zambia/chief advisor to underfive…
If PF did not use over whelming violence using all GRZ there is no way PF would have won….
……Just as an example, how a well known corrupt/criminal/GBV element like GBM could be underfive’s preferred choice of chief partner/running mate/vice president of Zambia/head of government/potential president of Zambia/chief advisor to underfive is inexplicable, perhaps only understood by UPNDonkeys.
@Terrible! But you have are a president who is a convicted criminal! GBM has never been convicted of any criminal activity. lungu store money from a poor widow. when was GBM convicted of criminal activities? Terrible tell us.
How does a convicted criminal register with ECZ to stand for public office?? Your reasoning is very low. During the anti-corruption circus, anybody Fred M’membe and his evil post newspaper pointed at was corrupt and a criminal. But convictions were never achieved. Like Fightone Sichone when he was Lands Commissioner, the vile newspaper labelled him a criminal only to be acquitted by the Courts. GBM as defence minister personally changed the personnel of the procurement departments of the defence forces so he could have all the supply contracts; He wanted the same with ZESCO and the transmission poles contract but was reprimanded by MCS, we all know his corruption!!!
FOR SURE OUR DEMOCRACY IS HEADED THE WRONG WAY. Our Democracy is being greatly abused in our country. The most undemocratic amongst us want to be allowed to disregard the law and when they are challenged, they cry that our country is sliding into dictatorship!!! Personally, i am not happy about that type of democracy. It is a RECKLESS AND DANGEROUS democracy and only serves selfish individuals. I am not happy about a democracy that seems to imply that we should allow reckless and divisive media without any oversight (something that doesn’t happen anywhere in the world including America!!). We all know that GBM, Kabimba and HH are very far from being true democrats but they don’t mind being hypocritical and continuously call others dictators. It is amazing how as Zambians we can be so…
Nomba mukalya democracy!
Neither PF nor UPND is to blame. Zambians are to blame for their lack of patriotism to their country! Let’s take today’s example. PF is in power today and is in the driver’s seat. If I am a PF member and I see PF killing democratic institutions and taking away citizen freedoms and rights; if I see my party abusing its powers to suppress press freedoms; if I see my party arresting my fellow citizens for simply expressing themselves: if we are patriotic citizens, we’ll not turn a blind eye to our particular party’s injustices to sacrifice democracy for the sake of blind party loyalty. That is when things start to go wrong and the country gets destroyed.
The leader of the main opposition party was arrested as he was about to board a plane to Rwanda. Reason? He was becoming a nuisance by misusing the so called democracy. You can sample as much as you want but remember this is not America.
The Tanzanian opposition
Let the sample be tested in 2021, 2026 & 2031 assuming same results as before earlier polls
2 in 3? If you ask 3 Tongas it will be 3 in 3 feel it is headed in bad direction! I think it is in the right place!