President Edgar Chagwa Lungu (cente) displays the badge he received from Lion 413 District Governor Jessica Chobe (left) on the right is Lions International Director Lion Hastings Eli Chiti during the Lion District 413 Zambia Fundraising for Melvin Jones Children Eye Referal Hospital at Pamodzi Hotel in Lusaka on Saturday,November 25,2017. SALIM HENRY/STATE HOUSE ©2017
President Edgar Chagwa Lungu (cente) displays the badge he received from Lion 413 District Governor Jessica Chobe (left) on the right is Lions International Director Lion Hastings Eli Chiti during the Lion District 413 Zambia Fundraising for Melvin Jones Children Eye Referal Hospital at Pamodzi Hotel in Lusaka on Saturday,November 25,2017. SALIM HENRY/STATE HOUSE ©2017

The Economic Intelligence Unit (EIU) has said that President Edgar Lungu is expected to win the 2021 Elections, if he is allowed to stand, warning that there will be unrest in Zambia if the Constitutional Court rules that President Edgar Lungu is eligible to stand in 2021..

According to the report , if President Lungu is deemed eligible to stand again in 2021, and with the odds stacked against the opposition in a repressive environment, The Economist Intelligence Unit expects him to win a second full term as president.

According to a country report on Zambia for 2018 to 2022 released yesterday, the EIU stated that there was more serious unrest likely to happen in Zambia that could trigger re-invocation of the state of emergency, citing the pending ruling of the ConCourt on President Lungu’s eligibility case.

“Over the longer run, there are several potential flashpoints that stand to stir more serious unrest and provide justification for the re-imposition or extension of emergency powers. Such unrest is likely to be triggered, for example, if the judiciary were to deem Mr Lungu eligible to stand for another term in office in 2021—something the opposition roundly rejects,” the EIU report highlighted.

“The 2021 election season will be another volatile period, during which the government will look to narrow the political space aggressively. Extra security powers should help to bolster overall stability, but they will nonetheless reinforce widespread perceptions that Zambia is staggering into autocracy, keeping tensions very high throughout the forecast period and resulting in frequent low-level clashes and violence. Besides relations with the opposition, intra-governmental divisions will keep policy unpredictable, with a vocal conservative faction of the ruling Patriotic Front (PF) having long been sceptical of the president and his choice of Cabinet. To cement his position, Mr Lungu is likely to enact a purge against this caucus, which will prove a distraction to the functioning of government while it lasts, but later on it should work to avoid internal instability – for example, in the run-up to the 2020 PF presidential nomination.”

The report further noted that threats to the country’s stability would mostly stem from “what is for Zambia an unusual degree of tension under the presidency of Edgar Lungu.”

“Treason charges against Hakainde Hichilema, the leader of Zambia’s main opposition party, the United Party for National Development (UPND), have been dropped, but only under a nolle prosequi, which means that the prosecution will proceed no further but that he can be rearranged at any time. Mr Hichilema has also reiterated his commitment to overturning the results of the 2016 general election (which the UPND claims was fraudulent), even though these claims are the most likely reason why he was charged with treason in the first place,” the EIU report stated.

“The Commonwealth, a multilateral organisation, has brokered talks between Mr Hichilema and Mr Lungu, but in the absence of any common ground over the 2016 election, these are unlikely to succeed.”

The EIU further projected that in the short term, recent political tensions would cool following the release from prison of Hichilema, the UPND leader.

“But there are several trigger-points for further unrest, leaving stability fragile throughout the forecast period,” the report stated.

It further noted that emergency security powers under Article 31 of the Constitution have expired without extension by President Edgar Lungu, “who made the decision unilaterally.”

“Article 31 was initially invoked following a large fire that the authorities suspected was caused by politically-motivated arson. A debt management strategy paper released by the Ministry of Finance reveals plans for domestic public debt to comprise 60 per cent of the total stock over the medium term, with the remainder external. This is up from an officially estimated ratio of 45:55 currently,” it stated.

It also noted that the expiration of the 90 day threatened state of emergency that was declared by President Lungu on July 5 would bring about calm over the short term but that there would be low-level anti-government protests over corruption, “which will be a frequent phenomenon.”

The EIU stated that real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth would average 3.6 per cent a year in 2018-22, mainly on the back of a relatively strong copper price outlook.

“Although there will be volatility in global commodity markets and varying levels of business confidence. Inflation will settle at an annual average of 6.7 per cent in 2018-19, on the back of currency stability. The rate will then average 8.3 per cent in 2020-22, amid a weaker exchange rate and periodic rises in the global oil price,” it stated.

“The current account balance will move from an estimated deficit of 2.1 per cent of GDP in 2017 to a surplus of 0.6 per cent of GDP in 2019 as exports rise. It will then return to a deficit in 2020-22 as copper prices fall to relatively lower levels…The government will adopt an economic policy of austerity with the scrapping of consumer subsidies, most notably for electricity, while protecting pro-poor spending under a loan facility with the IMF. Monetary policy will be loosened in 2018 as inflation remains well within the central bank’s medium-term target range, followed by a period of stasis and then tightening in 2021-22 as price pressures rise.”

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58 COMMENTS

  1. Even if it costs Zambia everything PF don’t care about the violence that may engulf the country. They have stolen too much to risk losing power.

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    • Use1ess findings from use1ess people. what was the sample size, and the margin of error for this trash? with or without Jameson, PF is going

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    • Based on this report, it goes with my main comment which repeated yesterday in relation to the so-called dialogue. I said and remain by that, there is nothing going to happen concerning the dialogue that commonwealth is trying to broker unless concourt makes that decision on ECL eligibility. If they make that decision in 2018 or 2020, it will be too late to make any constitutional changes that the opposition are demanding. The noises around 2021 election will be much greater than we experienced in 2016. If concourt rules against ECL eligibility, PF will not have a formidable candidate to stand against HH and will be hard for PF to accept the Concourt decision. While UPND will cry foul for having not made constitutional changes. The point is Concourt ought make that decision NOW.

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    • This report says if he allowed to stand.

      What a load of rubbish.

      He will stand as he is constitutionally eligible.

      Boom!

      Thanks

      BB2014,2016

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    • Lol. This is funny. The guy has never won any election. He lost to Sampa at the convention, he lost 1016 and there is evidence.

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    • This report says if he allowed to stand.

      What a load of rubbish.

      He will stand as he is constitutionally eligible.

      Boom!

      Thanks

      BB2014,2016

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    • How sure are you Mt game Meat, haven’t you head that us in DIASPORA are about to elect our own Leader and he’s going to run against Lungu. Mind you, we got money and we’re not like stealing form the Zambians.

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    • Woe to the land whose king was a servant and whose princes feast in the morning.

      ECCLESIASTES 10:16

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    • But these upnd fellows, who told you the election was stolen, hallucinations? Have a life for Judas sake!

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    • This is a sham of a report and it needs to be dismissed by all the smart people of the Zambian Enterprise. It is contemptuous at best and the ConCourt needs to cite EIU for commenting on issues that are currently under judicial review.

      GRZ needs to sue the authors for meddling in internal issues of a sovereign country … imagine what the US State Department would have responded to this while such matters were at the Supreme Court? EIU is simply telling the ConCourt not to allow ECL to stand or else.

      The authors are prophets of doom and in fact GRZ needs to seriously look at who is behind this report. On top of that the kind of economic fuzzy math included in this report shows that it was actually written by someone with very little understanding of the dynamics of Zambian politics…

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    • Continued …

      The authors are prophets of doom and in fact GRZ needs to seriously look at who is behind this report. On top of that the kind of economic fuzzy math included in this report shows that it was actually written by someone with very little understanding of the dynamics of Zambian politics let alone the current economic trends whose sole interest was to affect the outcome of ConCourt’s decision.

      It is a totally incoherent report meant to be alarmist at worst. Gone are the days when imperialist interests would go on unabated and we should immediately take action against this report … further still, the authors seem not to understand that the main driver of the Zambian economy is no longer mining but agriculture and construction.

      Pretty soon, manufacturing will also be…

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    • Continued …

      Pretty soon, manufacturing will also be another sector that will have significant roots as another driver in this economy but the authors who should be the real authority in Economics seem to miss that too. This government has done a great job at diversifying the economy in a very time they have been in office.

      Reports like this were tolerated in the last political cycle in the United States to the country’s detriment. Total both houses of congress and a special prosecutor has been appointed to verify whether Russia meddled in the last elections.

      It all starts with fake reports such as this one whose sole purpose is to incite the smart people of the Zambian Enterprise or at the very least force the learned Judges think otherwise. Who gives these dimwits the right…

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    • Continued …

      Who gives these dimwits the right to meddle … Lubinda – Minister of Legal Affairs needs to take this matter seriously and call these culprits to book otherwise, we would end up with foreign powers meddling in our internal affairs. They need to substantiate their claims with actual evidence.

      This is a very serious matter and it should be taken on by relevant authorities … let us choose our own destiny and not be dictated to by others whose main interest is loot our resources through back door channels.

      Zambia Is Greater Than Any Single One Of Us ~ B R Mumba, Sr.

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    • @BRM
      We call such opinions upon ourselves when we allow a significant size of our budgets to be funded by outsiders.

      When shall be sovereign in the true sense of the word ?

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    • THE EIU REPORT BY THE ECONOMIST BRITISH MAGAZINE AND ARROGATES TO ITSELF PROPHETIC POWERS WHICH IT HAS DISMALLY FAILED TO FULFIL IN THE PAST.
      ZAMBIANS WILL DECIDE THE FATE OF ZAMBIA.
      AT THE RATE ECL IS WORKING, HE WILL WIN IN 2021

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    • @ Ba Pimbilimano … you are so sport on!!! Boy I miss those old days of Zambia Online and Chanda Chisala. What happened to Bwana?

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    • This EIU fimo fimo are they not the ones that predicted that the Human Hyena (HH) would win last year’s elections???
      Anyway the way I see it and I’m usually correct is PF is heading for a loss in 2021, the margin by which PF won was too slim, the amount of dissatisfaction with the general governance as a result of the 4 agents of doom i.e Kaizer, Dora, Mutati and Kampyango has sealed the fate of my once wonderful party! So unless these 4 riders of the apocalypse are sent packing I don’t see PF winning 2021!
      The useless cretin Human Hyena is more than likely to win, but that doesn’t make him a better candidate than Peter Sinkamba a real leader that cares for all Zambians!
      Vote Peter Sinkamba in 2021! Vote Green Party for a Party that truelly cares for you!

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    • @2020Visionless….yes and HH won. I don’t concur with their report but they were spot on in predicting HH Win in 2016. Lungu has never won an election.

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    • Just a correction….expected to steal another election if he stood in 2021

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    • Ask how much HH stole during privatisation period. He is the greatest white collar thief of Zambia.

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  2. Supreme Leader HH of the UPND is a reject and cannot win an election in Zambia and anyone who stands on PF as President would still win the election…The Economic Intelligence Unit is pro UPND and has no substance because it is subjective due to being highly compromised…There will be no unrest because the majority of Zambians do not and cannot vote for a privatisation thief who has hidden the loot in Tax Havens according to the Paradise papers…

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  3. A set of useless predictions funded by the PF without touch to political reality or economic sense! ECL will encounter the wrath of the nation if he attempts a third term in office. That’s is what will turn the tension in the country into active conflict. The stakeholders against the third term are more in number and can be found even within the PF ranks.

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    • EIU is a upnd support group. You have to read between the lines to understand what they are doing here. They are intimidating the Constitutional Court.

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  4. He will win because Halpha Homega is a faulty product and unelectable.

    HH is a certified failure. Most Zambians hate his STINKING GUTS

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    • Lungu will win by rigging votes steering conflict between Bembas and Ngonis. Kambwili will import voters from Congo and Lungu from Malawi. Elyo lwanya mu Zed come 2020 Bembas Vs Ngonis.

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  5. Concourt please expedite this eligibility ruling so that the dust can settle and so the nation can move forward. Suspense is killing us. It has been more than 6 months since the matter was lodged in with the Concourt. Are you scared of the threats of chaos?

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  6. Who is The Economic Intelligence Unit (EIU)? How come we don’t hear the input when it comes to the economy.

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    • Good question Jay Jay.
      Instead of commenting on economics they are paving the way for ECL. Remember they have the word “Intelligence “, this is meant to psychology pressure opposition.

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    • THE EIU REPORT IS BY THE ECONOMIST BRITISH MAGAZINE AND ARROGATES TO ITSELF PROPHETIC POWERS WHICH IT HAS DISMALLY FAILED TO FULFIL IN THE PAST.
      ZAMBIANS WILL DECIDE THE FATE OF ZAMBIA.
      AT THE RATE ECL IS WORKING, HE WILL WIN IN 2021

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  7. what a useless crap of useless data from pure cadres with nothing to offer economically these chaps are cursed souls who will never at be peace or live a normal life

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  8. This is NOT a HIDDEN story that ECL/PF will WIN 2021 general elections, Another POINT that is NOT conclusive IS that’ ALL OPPOSITIONS POLITICAL PARTIES ( CK including) will TEAM -UP to OUST MIGHTY PF out OF power but MAJORITY ZAMBIANS will “sayNO” just like what happened in 1996 when ALL aggrieved MINISTERS and MP rose against then President CHILUBA/MMD , out COMES? ALL in their masses were BEATEN pants down.

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  9. Whether ECL stands or not whoever wants to win the presidency in 2021 must get 50+1 votes. So this time every candidate must begin strategising on how to get votes in areas they did not perform well. PF must work on doing well in the south, west and north west and also perform excellently in their strongholds, UPND must work on doing well in the east, north(Luapula & Muchinga included), Copperbelt and lusaka. Also should try by all means to uphold their percentage turnout in their strong holds even perform much more. Ladies and gentlemen, if the current constitution says a term office is minimum 3 years, should we honestly waste time on eligibility instead of pushing for electoral reforms. Is ECL not standing the only way other candidates can win?

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  10. This report is fictitious, is the author of the report the majority Zambians who are itching to kick out the PF/MMD illegal regime?

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  11. The EIU has been around for years and generally has produced accurate reports on all countries including Zambia.
    It does matter what bloggers argue about because we are all hear and nobody is going anywhere till we see what happens in 2021.
    We all know that the UPND in its current form can NOT win the presidency.
    Their strategy is poor because its based more on wishing for the demise of political opponents than proactive engagement with the electorate.
    If the economic fundamentals remain as forecasted in this report,then the PF can claim economic success leaving the UPND to campaign in the usual way of preaching hatred,war mongering,division,tribalism unpatriotism and bad neighborliness.

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  12. Rubbish why should there be unrest over ECL’s term of office when it is plain white in the constitution that less than 3 years is not a term. Why do they fear ECL like this is he a lion? Definitely ECL has already won for them to be behaving like this.

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  13. There we go again trying to catch fish without a hook. Find a bet? Don’t go paddling all corners of the river, you might be hammered by a hippo.

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  14. It is only UPND that is failing to understand the clause dealing with a term of office for the president.
    In black and white it reads; 3 or more years constitute a term. Clearly Lungu has another term comin.
    On the other hand, any candidate standing on PF ticket would still win. HH will keep in the three provinces only.

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  15. But who does not know this painful fact to UPNDoshi its easy sailing. Who can ever vote for someone who is plain petty – no one.
    Its also about tribalism that is rife in UPNDoshi party.
    Sometimes truth pains.
    I end here!

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  16. Where are these fools from calling themselves economic bull dogs. That’s the problem with Tonga’s they hope for violence in Zambia, sorry it will not happen! You already know that Lungu is eligible to stand in 2021, why pretend? You think if Edgar doesn’t stand then HH will win! Rubbish! Your HH will never win an election in Zambia because he’s a dirty tribalist!

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  17. The EIU article expired long time ago and overtaken by events, therefore BID.
    Mugabe has since then disgracefully forced ti resign not retire, dictator mentor to Edgar Lungu. Kenyan presidential elections nullified by Kenyan Con Court and held fresh ones held under a new date. Commonwealth has engaged the Zambian government with the opposition parties to review the Zambian electoral system, implying it is deficient in its current form and require complete overhaul including its officers.
    EIU need to sharpen its intelligence on realities and not stale speculations of half truths.

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  18. One weakness with the EIU reports is their over-reliance on information obtained from the so-called opinion makers in Zambia. A colleague in the media told me their favorite and popular opinion makers include people like Vernon Mwaanga, Guy Scott, Fred Mmembe, Neo Simutanyi, Sishuwa Sishuwa, and other like-minded individuals. What objectivity can you expect from these guys other than gloom and doom about Zambia?

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  19. There will be no violence in Zambia whatever the outcome from concourt about president Edgar Lungu’s eligibilty to stand!!
    Plus whoever shall stand on PF in 2021 will surely win because upnd has limited political impact in 6.5 provinces where PF is very strong!!!moreover,many Zambians cant vote for HH-THIS IS THE FACT WHICH UPND HAS BEEN IGNORING SINCE 2006 ONLY TO CRY AFTER HH LOSES ELECTION AFTER ELECTION!!
    come 2021 ni PF nafuti nafuti!!
    NJIMBU BB 2017!!

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  20. whether ecl stands or not u5 will never rule zambia. apart from 3 provinces we dont like the childish tribal tax evader calculator boy.

    i just came from my province. an average person doesnt even that in zambia there is u5

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  21. lungus followers are laving him quickly and saaing bad bad things about him!!!!!! zccmminerhateskasolo blog you must see, it is telling us alot

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