Rating Agency Moody’s Upgrades Zambia’s rating outlook from Negative to Stable

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MOODY’S INVESTORS SERVICE has, Friday, January 26, 2018, upgraded the rating outlook for Zambia to STABLE FROM NEGATIVE.

According to a rating action statement issued in London by Moody’s, THE STABLE OUTLOOK REFLECTS REDUCED GOVERNMENT LIQUIDITY PRESSURES AND A SLOWDOWN IN GOVERNMENT DEBT ACCUMULATION.

On 24 January 2018, a Moody’s rating committee was called to discuss the rating of the Government of Zambia. The main points raised during the discussion were that, Zambia’s.

1) Fiscal or financial strength, including its debt profile, has materially decreased;

2) Susceptibility to event risks has not materially changed; and,

3) ECONOMIC FUNDAMENTALS, INCLUDING ITS ECONOMIC STRENGTH, have materially increased.

Moody’s indicated that the affirmed B3 long-term issuer rating, balances a strong growth potential boosted by ample natural resources and a young and growing population against continuing credit challenges which include a MODERATE DEBT BURDEN, though with a very high share denominated in foreign currency, low debt affordability, and risks of further fiscal slippage. Other challenges highlighted by Moody’s include sizeable funding requirements, a rising reliance on external debt including for local currency government securities, and large Eurobond maturities due early in the next decade.

They also stated that the government’s GRADUAL PROGRESS WITH FISCAL CONSOLIDATION IS HELPING TO CAP BORROWING needs and gradually restore policy credibility. As a result, the pace of increase in government debt from 2014 to 2015 is NOT EXPECTED TO REPEAT. Moody’s has indicated that evidence of fiscal consolidation, together with a favourable commodity price environment, fosters stability in the exchange rate allowing the central bank to ease monetary policy, and in turn contributes to support liquidity in the banking sector.

Below is the exerpts from Moody’s statement

Moody’s estimates that in 2017, Zambia’s fiscal deficit fell to 6.5% of GDP, down from an 8.6% deficit in 2016. With the total deficit being the main source of funding over the past few years, the gradual REDUCTION IN THE FISCAL DEFICIT ALLEVIATES LIQUIDITY PRESSURES and has supported an easing of monetary policy.

Moreover, reduction of the electricity supply gap…lowered costly electricity imports funded by the government while fuel subsidy reform and currency stability have reduced the government’s subsidy bill. The government has also raised retail power tariffs by 75% and has increased the tariff for mines…overall, these amount to savings of around 2% of GDP relative to 2016 outcome.

These measures contribute to REDUCED PRESSURES FOR SPENDING OVERRUNS and also helps the government in reducing its expenditure arrears, accumulated mostly in the aftermath of the copper price shock in 2015 – 2016. In 2017, arrears worth 3% of GDP were settled.

Moody’s expects that FISCAL REVENUES WILL GRADUALLY RISE over the medium term, to around 18% of GDP in 2020, from around 16% in 2016, supported by higher copper prices, higher copper production and structural tax measures. Such measures are likely to include steps towards implementation of more effective tax regimes and tighter incentives for compliance. Combined with fiscal measures to rein in expenditures, the fiscal deficit will continue to fall and reach 5.7% of GDP in 2018 and 5.0% in 2019.

Moreover, the government has implemented a new Public Financial Management Act and established control over non-concessional borrowing, reducing the risk of liquidity pressures going forward. In particular, ALL NEW NON-CONCESSIONAL BORROWING HAS BEEN SUSPENDED since November 2017 unless approved by Cabinet. The government has also embarked on implementing the Treasury Single Account to reduce future arrears occurrences. Moody’s expects the remainder of the government expenditure arrears to be cleared by 2020. Overall, Moody’s expects that gross financing needs WILL BE CONTAINED BELOW 15% OF GDP and gradually subside, facilitating further easing liquidity pressures.

With ongoing, albeit gradual, fiscal consolidation, and robust nominal GDP growth, government debt will rise very gradually as a ratio to GDP. Moody’s Projects Real GDP growth above 4% in both 2018 and 2019, and NOMINAL GDP GROWTH AT AROUND 13%, supported by a robust global growth environment and demand for copper and an easing of some of the domestic structural bottlenecks including in power.

Despite progress with fiscal consolidation, Zambia’s gross funding needs, which Moody’s estimates at almost 14% of GDP in 2018, present a risk for the government given the country’s narrow domestic capital market and potential sudden changes in risk appetite by international investors. Interest payments consume almost a quarter of budgetary revenue, up from 5% in 2011. While increased participation of foreign investors in government local currency securities has eased the government’s financing constraints, it amplifies the sensitivity of financing conditions to fluctuations in foreign investors’ sentiment.

Moreover, unless the government refinances its external debt maturities ahead of schedule, its funding needs will rise again significantly in the early part of the next decade, with the first Eurobond maturity due in 2022, and two other Eurobonds maturing shortly after. This concentration of Zambia’s maturities coincides with large maturities for a number of other Sub-Saharan African countries, amplifying roll-over risk.

Finally, A REPEAT OF FISCAL SLIPPAGES or significant depreciation of the currency seen in recent years, leading to the re-emergence of government liquidity challenges and increased indebtedness, could drive a negative rating action.

The absence of a clear and credible plan to manage refinancing risk as the Eurobond maturities in the early part of the next decade near, would also put pressure on the rating. An absence of long-term fiscal and other structural reforms, including narrowing the energy gap over the medium term thereby reducing potential growth and undermining fiscal strength would also put downward pressure on the rating.

Faster progress with FISCAL CONSOLIDATION than we currently expect that markedly reduces the likelihood of liquidity pressures returning and brings government debt on a distinct downward trajectory would be credit positive. PROGRESS WITH ECONOMIC DIVERSIFICATION AND STRUCTURAL REFORM that leads to higher and more stable growth would also support Zambia’s creditworthiness in the medium term.

Commenting on the development, Finance Minister Felix Mutati has said the IMPROVED OUTLOOK IN THE ZAMBIAN GOVERNMENT’S RATING is not only an important indicator of the international community’s discernment of Zambia’s political, social and economic stability but also an endorsement of the country’s consistent and market friendly development policies.

“The rating upgrade is a confirmation that Zambia’s image is venerated, therefore, our private sector should leverage on this positive outlook to develop credible alliances with players in the international community and grow empires which will generate jobs and create wealth,” he said.

Mr. Mutati acknowledged that the positive upgrade was based on, among other considerations, the critical reforms which the government has embarked on under the Economic Stabilisation and Growth Programme to implement fiscal consolidation, remove subsidies, reform the energy sector, and embark on diversification of the economy through agriculture, tourism, and industrialisation.

“The results of the assessment conducted by Moody’s is a welcome assurance to investors, therefore, they should remain confident that Zambia is on track with economic stabilisation and growth,” said the Minister, adding that, “we will work diligently to ensure that the confidence of our people and that of our foreign partners in the good intentions of the government to stabilize and grow the economy are not taken for granted.”

“We will endeavour to remain focused, firm, and committed in the implementation of our transformational agenda so that our gains in economic stabilisation are protected through enhanced fiscal consolidation and sustained inclusive growth, without leaving anyone behind,” stated Mr. Mutati.

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94 COMMENTS

  1. Basically this implies there is no crisis and your country is not just stable it’s above average.

    Congratulations president Lungu.

    I’m a PhD holder

    Thanks

    BB2014,2016

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    • Figures don’t lie but the maroons will start to disagree with the already computed figures. Figures to them only tells the truth if moodys rate zambia negatively. This is where the opposition misses the opportunity to sound relevant to our political system.

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    • THEY SAY YOU ARE DOING FINE, I SAY KUDOS BUT DON’T GET COMPLACENT
      =======================
      Remember we do our own rating at the polls. Needless to state that thanks for removing corrupt individuals like rejectamenta one CK. Now keep your eyes on the ball. Smack all those corrupt dents outa positions of authority and 2021 will be easy. Why? Well because people will fall in love with you. Of course except jealous & bitter goons from the Region and regions. Callous rejectamentas.

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    • My understanding is that we are stable in ICU. The president was clear borrowing won’t stop this stabilisation has come at a cost to him and he saw the evidence in Muchinga. STALLED PROJECTS ! and he is again panicking and created an emergency task force of government spending departments to ensure funds are sourced and released to projects. Go figure what will happen. Besides bwana Moodies, if IMF has failed to establish the true extent of Government borrowing …whats even our capacity to repay when these fall due ???

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    • Congratulation !!!
      It shows that the reduced international travels had an impact. Continue looking for ways to reduce carelessness and seal the loops for corruption, you will be doing even much better than this.

      We should move from Stable to Growth, stable is not good enough, but the first step in the right direction.

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    • Congratulations Lungu without even analyzing the cause of stability. The stability is due to a no. of factors
      1) Jonathan has stopped travelling too much so there are some savings there (Remember MCS, the man he has betrayed, indicated about the colossal amounts of money involved when a president travels, when PF was a pro-poor party)
      2) Noises CK is making about Corruption, the Pilato factor, Mulusa wheelbarrow and Kalaba resignation have made the guys to stop stealing for now
      3) Copper prices have increased in recent times
      4) All the projects have stalled so not much spending at the moment
      5) 2021 is nearing thick and fast
      Anyway you cannot analyse because you are no ‘The analyser’ . And you have a PhD, who hasn’t. Understandably yours is online!

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    • Mushota tell us about the fiscal and monetary policies you Johnathan has put in place and preach to us about the micro and macro indicator are saying. Cease the opportunity as an MBA holder and a PhD. Instead of ukulandafye ati fyotototo!

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    • …”from Negative to Stable,” meaning from the grave to ICU. Zambia’s economy is not dead. It only happens to be in coma – “stable.”

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    • This exactly what I told one alarmist in the name of Bo Situmbeko … I know this is not good news for dimwits and useless useful clowns but Bill Clinton always said “Its the economy stupid1!”

      People vote by comparing their fiscal positions from one period to another. With ECL recording real GDZ growth above 4% and inflation lowering from year to year, it will be hard for people not to notice and vote for him again should ConCourt clear him to run.

      Everyone plotting his demise with 3 years to the next polls simply does not understand politics … he has over a thousand days to turn this ship around and if he remembers that the road to State House passes through Southern Province and does the needful, he’s in.

      The smart people of the Zambian Enterprise are heading in the right…

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    • God’s in control & He has promised Zambia more than we’ve ever seen before. Zambia’s already better place to live in than it’s ever been. Over the years we have moved from times of ‘severe shortages’ to ‘availability but expensive’ & then to ‘availability but affordable’. We are now living in a time of ‘transformation’. We are producing what we eat & we need to also start producing what we use & continue improving our infrastructure. GLORY to GOD & bravo to all who’ve contributed & still contributing to this remarkable journey for our young nation. Don’t be discouraged but work even harder with integrity. God Bless Zambia

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    • NUBIA, you have to pay your rent and all other bills. Why should Moody’s, Kampyongo or l pay for your existence. Mwandi naine efyombukike Efyo fine kwisa fye pa LT watukapo umo.

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    • Ba analyser … kanshi mwisafye mu kutukana?????? Awe mwandini, efyo ichalo chesu ta chileila pa ntanshi!!!

      Heaven help us all …

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  2. We have always been on the road to development ever since the PF government came in 2011. we don’t even need these skewed ratings to rate our performance.
    and we dont need the IMF loan from the imperialists

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    • You say you dont need IMF loan all these yet you have a majority of projects stalled across the country because you couldn’t balance the budget. When Moody’s downgrades you ..you say they are useless and you dont listen to them but when they up grade from -3 to a pathetic 0 you start celebrating without shame!!

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    • The problem with you guys is that you perceive all of us as HH supporters when we apply checks and balances to the government. Even us who come from the north. We are simply patriots. Even if HH comes to power or whoever, we will continue opposing poor leadership. Wake up from party politics and become a patriot !!!

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  3. Stable is not even a good rating ,that’s like being upgraded from food aid dependent to barely living from paycheck to next paycheck.

    Lungu and PF have been poor managers sliding Zambia down from Rupiah Banda’s BB ratings to negative ratings is serious economic regression

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    • Danielle and Kudus cannot understand this simple logic, but they represent the mediocre PF thinking just wait and see how the PF vuvuzelas will got to town with this…very sad

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    • You are just ashamed that you have nothing to offer as upnd to Zambian beyond what PF is doing.

      HH and UPND are a failed project. Well done. ECL and PF.

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  4. PF should be realistic about this and not celebrate over the top. We have been losing matches like 7-0 in the last years and today we lost 6-1. Should we celebrate that we at least scored a goal? Should we celebrate that we at least only conceded 6 goals this time? I think this is what it is.

    The President’s trip to Muchinga reveals the real issues. The President’s team is not working. They have gone to sleep. Why does he have to visit the scene to make his team work? Lusaka Cholera, Muchinga visit. This is the pattern being revealed and that is what is killing the economy. His team is incompetent and not delivering. As for stalled projects, what was Mulusa doing all those years for project to slip

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    • Mulusa is a hero for the bantustans because he stalled the projects . That’s why he got sacked .

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    • MMD Chief Bootlicker – careful these lazy bloggers of today lack critical analysis and critical thinking …they will simply label your a HH and UPND supporter.

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  5. The Zambian economy has only gotten a better rating and better health bcuz of Mutati otherwise PF by itself was driving us into the drain.That’s why they got rid of Chikwanda.

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    • Ati Bravo …. thats a lazy attitude there. You have a pile of kaloba waiting for you in a few years. Employees are in the formal sector are overburdened to pay for salaries for corrupt civil service, cabinet ministers and to pay the kaloba. You are saying Bravo cos you are naive and dont understand the reality of our situation. Wake up from your docility and analyze issues before lining up on airport tarmacs singing bravo!!

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    • Every success however small deserves to be celebrated. It shows that you’re going to greater highs.

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    • Oval **** – do you even know what the word success is? Do you even know how Moody’s rated you stable…do you know that you can be in hospital – ICU on life support and be stable.

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    • @ HH Oval head
      You must be ashamed of yourself mate. In the absence of the rot going on right now, Zambia should be in a far much better rating than this, we should be aiming for a higher rating. remember, 8years ago, the rating was somewhere B1. Now you are struggling with a B3 and you want to call it success?? Dont be a cadre all your life! Wake up and be objective and true to your conscious!!!

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  6. Undees dont like this kind of news for Zambia, doesn’t help them with their 2021 project which is already flat on its face 3 three years before their fate is finally pronounced.
    Dont worry another hopefully more progressive oppostion party will rise after 2021.

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  7. This is good news for all Patriots but the President should not be making uninformed comments like ‘those who do not want us to borrow should get out”.Such comments send wrong signals to investors and contradicts what is happening on the ground and the good work the bureaucrats are doing to slow down debt contraction.President Lungu should not be politicising economic issues.

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    • iwe, where did the president say that?? That was fake news on news diggers!!! How do you base anything on lies???

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    • During his recent visit to Garden compound on tour of cholera-affected areas.

      “When we borrow, we do not borrow to eat but to improve people’s living standards, so those who say we can’t borrow, get out!” President Lungu exclaimed rather undiplomatically.

      Why do you think its FAKE NEWS?

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    • If you believe what news diggers reports, then you are badly misinformed!!! Ask yourself Daily Nation and the Daily Mail are the biggest selling dailies today, why not Mast or Diggers??????

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  8. It is important to note that this upgrade comes in spite of NO IMF bailout. If the government can sustain this progression, please do not get an IMF bailout.

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  9. Doesn’t sound good in the ears of 2H. Always wishes failure for the Zambian government. Well done PF. Keep it up.

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  10. Paipa pano for Kainde and Kambwili…….kekekekekekekekeke….

    No weapon form against mother Zambia shall prosper in 2018 and beyond!!!our economy shall boom soon to shame the devil in opposition!!
    This kind of splendid news about Zambia irritates Kainde’s followers too much….kekekekekeke…..mukose because once our economy booms,no Zambian would even think about your loser Kainde for a second in 2021!!!
    President Edgar Lungu is a listerning leader unlike ba Sata,so experts in Govnt are putting things in order and soon it will be hey days for mother Zambia!!Just yesterday ECL said no new projects will be initiated until the old ones a completed.this is a good move by ECL’s Govnt!!
    MAY GOD CONTINUE BLESSING ZAMBIA!!
    Come 2021 ni PF nafuti nafuti!!

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  11. Moody’s expects that FISCAL REVENUES WILL GRADUALLY RISE over the medium term, to around 18% of GDP in 2020, from around 16% in 2016, supported by higher copper prices, higher copper production and structural tax measures. Such measures are likely to include steps towards implementation of more effective tax regimes and tighter incentives for compliance. Combined with fiscal measures to rein in expenditures, the fiscal deficit will continue to fall and reach 5.7% of GDP in 2018 and 5.0% in 2019.

    (REVENUE MOBILISATION WITH INCREASED ECONOMIC OUTPUT RESULTING IN INVESTMENTS WILL FURTHER BOOST THE ECONOMIC GAINS WELL OBSERVED BY MOODY)

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  12. Indeed MULUSA ni mbul sana. . Do we need the office of the president to make rounds just to appraise progress on projects?

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  13. Moreover, unless the government refinances its external debt maturities ahead of schedule, its funding needs will rise again significantly in the early part of the next decade, with the first Eurobond maturity due in 2022, and two other Eurobonds maturing shortly after. This concentration of Zambia’s maturities coincides with large maturities for a number of other Sub-Saharan African countries, amplifying roll-over risk.

    (USING REINVESTMENTS FROM INVESTED PROJECTS TO ADDRESS THE TERM SHEETS AND ADDRESS THE FINANCING ASPECT ON THE BUDGET NOT ONLY FOR LONGTERM BUT ALSO TREASURY BILLS AND BONDS TO REPOSITION AND SAVE COSTS TO FURTHER REPAY GOOD ASSESSMENT BY MOODY AND WELL TAKEN CAREOF)

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  14. With ongoing, albeit gradual, fiscal consolidation, and robust nominal GDP growth, government debt will rise very gradually as a ratio to GDP. Moody’s Projects Real GDP growth above 4% in both 2018 and 2019, and NOMINAL GDP GROWTH AT AROUND 13%, supported by a robust global growth environment and demand for copper and an easing of some of the domestic structural bottlenecks including in power

    (GOOD GDP DEFLACTOR HERE ALSO SHOWING THE REAL GDP GROWTH PROSPECTS TOWARDS THE REGIONAL PROSPECTS AND MARKETS (5%) IT WILL ONLY BECOME SUPERCYCLE IF FURTHER INVESTMENTS ARE MADE TO ROBURST THE ECONOMY AND PEFORM TO MARSHALL MORE ZRA REVENUES BEATING THE CONSESUS 5% AND REBALANCE THE FINANCING GOOD POINT AND OBSERVATION BY MOODY…

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  15. Am sure somebody will claim that this organisation has been given brown envelopes just like our Judiciary (except when they rule in their favour of course)

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  16. To greatly facilitate the Super economic Growth Work on the Financial Sector also to ensure there is synergy and transmission mechanisms to effect the much needed positive shocks on restructuring the levels of leverage on the local debt markets and those exposure on balance of payments for foreign Most of it is basically structural There is already a high grade of skilling’s

    That is the final nail towards Long-term Financial and economic stability in the moodys above All those projects funding much work the local economy

    Those painting others as corrupt should reflect and change as such careless assertions have negative connotation for the economy with…

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  17. It is safe to state as a fact that whatever the government has achieved and will achieve, it could have been two times if it was not for undees and their 2h impeding progress with their evil schemes. Thecost of such evil is on all of Zambians including Dundumwezi. It is good that many chiefs in southern province are sensible and will not follow the one who thinks development is sleeping at the graveyard.

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  18. with implication for many sincere Zambians Its being careless You are basically eroding the regulatory, ethical and compliancy environmental perception for Investors No investors would risk investing In a country with weak laws and Poor governance for long-term but such is not the case for Zambian The environment is positively healthy and favourable for sound business

    Good observation and rating by moody

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  19. I cant see Kainde’s rats on this issue such as “Spaka like lilo”!!!!WHERE ARE YOU GUYS?
    PAIPA PANO FOR KAINDE AND HIS TRIBAL FOLLOWERS……KEKEKEKEKE!!!
    Comment bane or a carrot was dangled to the moody experts by PF leadership as you always claim when somebody makes a positive state about PF Govnt?
    If this Govnt improves our economy before 2021,then you must as well just advise your Kainde and Kambwili to boycott 2021 general elections because they be embarrassed badly by Mighty PF!!
    On many fronts,PF is on course.but what is missing is just having a lot of money in circulation like during RB’s time!!IF THAT IS ACHIEVED BEFORE 2021,THEN VICTORY WILL 100% BE FOR PF!!

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    • Spaka cannot come to the computer right now because he is laughing too hard at how you PF chaps are celebrating fixing a problem you created. I also laughed hard but I felt it a duty to find the energy to come tell you that we are still worse off from where you found us under RB. It’s like finding a complete house and through your dullness, destroy it when trying to improve on it and then celebrate hysterically when you build it up to Window level. See how stup!d that would make you kook Njimbu? Bomfyeniko akabongo nangu kachepe shani mudala, am sure ka common sense kuntu kamoneka even for a few miliseconds. smh.

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  20. ITS FINANCIAL SECTOR DEVELOPMENT THAT SUPPORTS DEMAND FOR THE SUPPLY IN THOSE INDUSTRIAL SECTORS EVOLVING IMPLIEDLY THOUGH THIS DOESNOT CHANGE MONOTONICALLY OVER TIME BUT ITS SOMETHING TO WORK AT TO EFFECT POSITIVELY AND IMPACT THE LOCAL AND FORIEGN CASHFLOW POSITIONS IN ZAMBIA OKAY

    THEY ARE ON TRACK AND SHOULD NOT LOOSE FOCUS IF THEY DO THIS CHPITAL RAIL LIKE THE STANDARD GAUGE RAIL PROJECT REVENUES WILL ACCRUE FROM ZIMBAMBWE SOUTH AFRICA CONGO GREAT AND OTHERS TO MOZAMBIQUE THROUGH IMPACTING THE DUAL CARRIAGE WAY NDOLA KITWE AND ECONOMIES OF CENTRAL PROVINCE AND MANY ITS A GOOD PROJECT TO ROLL THE ZAMBIAN ECONOMY AND FORTUNES IN KABWE MKUSHI MPIKA…

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  21. CHIPATA AND SERENJE LUSIWASI MANSA AND KAPIRI MPOSHI IN PARTICULAR ITS POSITIVE ZAMBIANS WILL MOVE MORE LOADS AND TRUCKS INLAND AS WELL AND PERHAPS OWN MORE IT WILL BE INCREASED INLAND REVENUES TO ZRA AND COUNCILS WITH DEVELOPMENT OF COMMERCE AND HOSPITALITY LIKE WE SEE IN KALYAKO IN TANZANIA IN THE PORT CITIES INCREASING THE LIVELLYHOOD AND STATUS OF OUR PEOPLE WHO NORMALLY PASS ON JOBS TO OTHERS

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  22. Don’t relent even it means squeezing us….uwakwensha ubushiku bamutasha ilyo bamutasha elyo bwacha.

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    • Nothing to tasha. You twits are fixing problems you created instead of improving on what you found. Dullards.

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    • @dudelove..Kali ulichipuba so you cannot understand what the proverb means. Maybe someone with more time will explain to you. As for me I have no time for imbeciles.

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    • I know what that saying means mune and calling me imbecile is really funny considering that the downward trend of the economy, the corruption, debt cholera under your party means you have exceeded imbecility levels. Better me an imbecile who understands that there will be zero trickle down effect to the ordinary Zambian from this stable thing. By the time 2021 reaches, we will even be lucky if we get back to the point you clueless m0r0ns found us in 2011. smh.

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    • @ Ndanje, if you answer me these questions I will swallow my words and apologise for calling you those colourful names. How have PF polices improved the lives and added value to the ordinary Zambian voter? Am talking micro economy here not unfinished infrastructure. How have your policies helped the local businessman to expand their business and create employment and wealth? How many people are employed at Mulungushi Textiles ever since the president opened it? Last question, what now will your government do in line with this shift in credit rating? What is their policy direction? If you answer me these then you will be the first PF supporter I would have ever encountered who did not run away from these questions. I asked Zambian citizen just one and he shut up.

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    • So in short you are blank as expected. Almost gave you the benefit of the doubt kanshi you are just another empty headed PF cadre. Cheers!

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  23. Is there anything to celebrate really? Did PF not find us in a better position than we are even with this stable rating? You come in, destroyed all the economic foundations you found, replace them with the most hopeless policies in the world which have a massively bad effect on our credit rating. You try to get a loan from IMF and you are told your debt is unsustainable and you need to cut down on borrowing and capital expenditure. You stop paying Contractors, projects stall, liquidity improves and we are rated from negative to stable and you think Lungu is working?? What happens when you have to pay contractors and your money flow is adversely affected? On a serious note do PF supporters think???? You dimwits put us in this mess so get us out of it without gloating. That is !d!otic.

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  24. Yaa but it should not be this commerce as usual in unprocessed commodities like copper and mukula as you create the those routes Trading in commodities does not help the Zambian economy if it had to refine and process in created sectors local because trading in commodities you are basically transferring value and other factors of production to others

    To address the moodys long-term you need to actively support industrialisation and clusters for value

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  25. OMG, excitement over hopelessness.You need need to put everything in context.Don’t just read what PF and Emmanuel Mwamba wants you to see.Go to Moody’s website and do your own analysis
    Zambias ratings since 2012
    07 Nov 2012 – Moody’s assigns B1 rating, stable outlook
    29 May 2015 – Moody’s Affirms B1 Sovereign Rating, Changes Outlook to Negative
    25 Sep 2015 – Moody’s downgrades government issuer rating to B2 from B1
    19 Apr 2016 – Moody’s downgrades issuer rating to B3 with negative outlook
    26 Jan 2018 – Moody’s changes outlook on Zambia’s B3 rating to stable from negative,affirms rating

    When Micheal Sata was in power Zambia had B1 rating (stable outlook).Under Edgar Lungu ,the ratings have dropped from B1 to B3.
    B1 rating signifies that the country is relatively stable…

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  26. OMG, excitement over hopelessness.You need need to put everything in context.Go to Moody’s website and do your own analysis
    Zambia’s ratings since 2012:
    07 Nov 2012 – Mo.ody’s assigns B1 rating, stable outlook
    29 May 2015 – Moody’s Affirms B1 Sovereign Rating, Changes Outlook to Negative
    25 Sep 2015 – Moody’s downgrades government issuer rating to B2 from B1
    19 Apr 2016 – Moody’s downgrades issuer rating to B3 with negative outlook
    26 Jan 2018 – Moody’s changes B3 rating to stable from negative,affirms rating
    When Micheal Sata was in power Zambia had B1 rating (stable outlook).Under Edgar Lungu ,the ratings have dropped from B1 to B3.
    B1 rating-A country is relatively stable with a moderate chance of default.
    B3 rating-A higher risk of default and greater risk to…

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    • You are talking to PF kaponyas they dont understand such things …they are only interested in kickbacks and overpriced tenders!!

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    • You are so dull – do you know that the actions of Mr. Sata are being felt in the first few years of ECL’s Presidency? Isn’t it Mr. Sata who created the filth ECL is cleaning in Lusaka? Isn’t it Mr. Sata who borrowed heavily with the Eurobonds – championed by Guy Scott? You cannot blame ECL for the Ratings because the impact of the actions he is taking now cannot be instant – if you have the capacity to understand how these things work.

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    • So to you Sata is UPND now, he is no longer PF. So PF government starts with Lungu?

      What is your argument here iwe @abilima? The problem is your PF never take responsibility, basically, it doesn’t matter whether it was Sata or ECL, the point is it you PF. Period.

      If you want to separate the two, then why does ECL embrace Sata`s vision and infrastructure projects? You cant be serious with your above argumentation or simply do not understand your own party politics.

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    • Kanene – You mean it is so difficult for you to understand that the actions of Mr. Sata can be condemned without labeling him UPND? ECL can embrace those steps and actions he feels are progressive. For example, Mr. Sata put vendors on the streets – do you want ECL to encourage this? Leadership is about making the right decisions – popular or unpopular. It matters who takes what decisions. ECL is not going to be remembered for Mr. Sata’s legacy.

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  27. “Moreover, unless the government refinances its external debt maturities ahead of schedule, its funding needs will rise again significantly in the early part of the next decade, with the first Eurobond maturity due in 2022, and two other Eurobonds maturing shortly after…concentration of Zambia’s maturities coincides with large maturities for a number of other Sub-Saharan African countries, amplifying roll-over risk.”

    This is the reckless borrowing we have been talking about with nothing to show..come 2021;these foools like the lazy thing will not even be there to repay this debt.

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  28. The important thing is reasoning behind the rating and the Good commentary arising Tightening simply to reduce spending to reduce the exposure should be analysed and seen in the context of moody The manner in which the debt levels was built up is always important a point to review and analyse and look at the real prospects available

    Ratings do change and its basically an opinion and you should be forward looking that is the principle

    We know the consequences of debt levels on growth and financials if not well leveraged but the Gov has basically identified and is rebalancing The next ratings will be even more pronounced given the gains registered in…

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    • Tighten what spending? If you as the breadwinner of the house have no money mid month and no one is willing to lend you because you have a bad habit of not paying on time …do you think you can continue living large!!

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  29. in the Zambian economy of Zambia since the commodity and financial crisis of between 1998 and now when prices are rebounding

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    • When Micheal Sata was in power Zambia had B1 rating (stable outlook).Under Edgar Lungu ,the ratings have dropped from B1 to B3.
      B1 rating-A country is relatively stable with a moderate chance of default.
      B3 rating-A higher risk of default

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    • @Ayatollah
      The problem with you guys is that you perceive all of us as HH supporters when we apply checks and balances to the government. We are patriots. Even if HH comes to power or whoever we will continue opposing poor leadership. Wake up from party politics and become a patriot !!!

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    • @gbouy,
      Indeed. That is what these i.di.ots fail to understand. Even if you put the word “patriot” in front of your name they will still not notice, they are simply so occupied with party affiliations, hard for them to imagine you and me can be independent supporters of what is good for Zambia, regardless of who is in power.

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  30. When Micheal Sata was in power Zambia had B1 rating (stable outlook).Under Edgar Lungu ,the ratings have dropped from B1 to B3.
    B1 rating-A country is relatively stable with a moderate chance of default.
    B3 rating-A higher risk of default

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  31. To be stable means the needle is not moving. It has stabilized. But who knows when it starts moving, whether it will move forwards or backwards?

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  32. While some see nothing positive in these ratings, others remain optimistic that Zambia’s economy is strong enough to not only withstand the current debt burden but also to counter any more risks.

    We are determined to brave the storm more than ever and we will continue to manage our resources as we seek various solutions to capture the opportunities that global markets offer.

    “When you reach the end of your rope, tie a knot in it and hang on.” – Franklin D. Roosevelt

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    • I dont think you have read the whole article…anyway let me leave you to pray for the economy overseen by incompetent CEO and his dull managers!!

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    • Democracy cannot succeed unless those who express their choice are prepared to choose wisely. The real safeguard of democracy, therefore, is education. – Franklin D. Roosevelt

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  33. Stability in the economy is better and try to read the rating methodology again and see Ratings do change and its basically an opinion of the issuer on behalf of its subscribers the Investors themselves that is why its called moodys Investors Service its a well researched opinion not taken likely with reasonable basis and well documented in findings forward looking and you should be forward looking that is the principle Its not an appeasement

    Given the rebalancing to avoid economy contracting but to prosper Its focussed that the growth prospects for Zambia will be positive The next ratings will be even more pronounced given the gains registered in the economy…

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  34. of Zambia already Its superlative in the sense and not political it should be dissociated from an individual or individuals though credit should be given

    Lets give credit for the stability and in commodities exhibiting some contagion 2018 to 2030 will be exiting for Zambia given its basics investments already in Infrastructure

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  35. Chi Spaka chili kwi???…kwekwekwekwe…Fallen sick after reading this???….kwekwekwekwe…shiki polomya yagwila…kwekwekwekwekwe…

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    • Citizen, have you seen the questions Ndanje has failed to answer? Help your friend, you might shock even yourself ka brain kalabazako sometimes 🙂

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    • @dude.. can’t you see that nobody is interested in your posting including your party members? Just to simplify things for an imbecile like you. I didn’t praise the government. I urged them not to relent. I used the rich bemba saying that people may suffer today but will appreciate the end result. I know the rating is not good enough but it’s a positive indication and government must continue regardless of the impact that we must suffer. Don’t engage in polemics just to show you’re more intelligent than the rest of people posting here.

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  36. That is the Outlook You move from stable to prosperous on the pendulum Absolutely correct You take stock of those sentiments and register gains to cement and such is the moment presented in the moody commentary for the Zambian economy 2018 to 2030

    The future is brighter and looks good for Zambia economic prospects ?? Never lose foresight there is GROWTH and Prosperity even IN A TIME OF DEBT to GDP if well worked out to refinance and reinvest well Its not always that growth will fall with resulting increased debt repayment costs, only if you do not Invest well in growth areas that results in savings social and economically and manage the repayment…

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  37. mismatch as you move from stability to Prosperity for long-term based on solid infrastructure laid leaving no region of Zambia with potential untapped

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  38. Hazaluza Hagain! The country is on a good trend. We have experienced unprecedented investments in almost all areas of human endeavor. It means Humpty Dumpty empty tribal party will see red Hagain!

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  39. S&P another respected international credit rating agency gave the same assessment 4 or 5 months ago, so nothing dramatic about this pronouncement just further confirmation that we are struggling

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