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Thursday, May 28, 2020

Moody’s downgrades Zambia’s ratings due to debt concerns

Headlines Moody's downgrades Zambia's ratings due to debt concerns

Moody’s Investors Service on Friday downgraded Zambia’s long-term issuer ratings to Caa1 from B3 but maintained a stable outlook.

Moody’s said the downgrade reflects ongoing fiscal consolidation challenges, pointing to an increasing government debt burden.

It said debt developments are contrary to its previous expectations that the debt burden would stabilize.

“Relatedly, and despite higher copper prices until recently, liquidity and external vulnerability risks are rising, reflecting larger gross funding needs than Moody’s previously estimated, higher public external debt and lower foreign exchange reserves buffers, trends which Moody’s does not expect to reverse,” it said in a report.

Moody said the outlook is however stable, reflecting balanced risks at the Caa1 rating level.

“The outlook captures downside risks related to persistent fiscal and liquidity challenges, a high and rising debt burden, low foreign exchange reserves buffers and moderate domestic political risk. These challenges are balanced by strong growth potential derived from ample natural resources and a young population which point to potential upside risks in the medium term,” it said.

Concurrently, Moody’s has lowered Zambia’s long-term foreign-currency bond ceiling to B2 from B1, its long-term foreign-currency deposit ceiling to Caa2 from Caa1, and its long-term local-currency bond and deposit ceilings to B1 from Ba2.


While the government made gradual progress with fiscal consolidation in 2017 and cleared a portion of its arrears, challenges to fiscal consolidation are rising again.

Moody’s says it expects these challenges to persist.

As a result, according to Moody’s, Zambia’s government debt burden is likely to rise towards 70% of GDP at the turn of the decade, from around 60% currently.

This contradicts Moody’s prior expectations that the debt burden would stabilize.

Moody’s estimates that the fiscal deficit amounted to 7.6% of GDP in 2017 on a cash basis, which was higher than the budget target of 7%, although in line with Moody’s previous projections.

Based on Moody’s estimates on budget implementation so far this year, the fiscal deficit for 2018 is expected to be around 7.8% of GDP, well above the government’s 6.1% target.

Spending pressures have risen, in particular from capital expenditure and interest payments, indicating increasing challenges for the government in meeting its fiscal consolidation objective.

With interest payments absorbing almost a quarter of revenue, and debt costs unlikely to decline, Moody’s now expects much slower fiscal consolidation in the next few years.

The budget deficit is not projected to narrow below 7% of GDP until the next decade.

In addition, the stock of arrears, which declined by one-third to around 5.2% of GDP at end-2017, remains relatively high by international standards.

This poses difficult choices for the government between reducing arrears and controlling current expenditure.

There are multiple signs that point to a rising government debt burden.

These include a wider budget deficit over the next few years, official revisions to the level of external debt as of end-2017 and evidence of a further recent increase in external debt this year (from US$8.7 billion at end-December 2017 to US$9.3 billion at end-March 2018), as well as potential downward pressure on the currency.

Moody’s expects the debt burden to approach 70% of GDP in 2020 from about 60% in 2017, despite sustained nominal GDP growth.

In efforts to reopen discussions with the IMF on a potential program, the authorities concluded a debt sustainability analysis exercise in June and announced a number of measures aimed at containing the pace of debt accumulation.

These measures include the intention to postpone all non-concessional borrowings planned but not yet contracted, to cancel some of the current contracted debt that is not yet disbursed, and to renegotiate some bilateral loans.

However, these measures lack implementation details.

At this stage, the extent to which they will prove effective in bringing the debt to GDP ratio on a falling trajectory and preventing an increase in liquidity pressures, in particular when the Eurobond repayments start from 2022, remains unclear.


Despite higher copper prices until recently, government liquidity and external vulnerability risks are rising, as a consequence of higher financing needs and falling foreign exchange reserves.

Consistent with the fiscal outlook presented above, and in the context of tightening financing conditions globally, Moody’s does not expect Zambia’s liquidity and external pressure to abate.

Fiscal slippage in 2018 will intensify the government’s liquidity challenges in financing persistently wider deficits, particularly given the high share of short-term domestic debt.

Moody’s expects gross financing needs to exceed 17% of GDP in 2018-19, and to rise further in the early part of the next decade as large Eurobond maturities fall due.

At that time, roll-over risk is amplified by the proximity of Zambia’s Eurobond maturities to international capital market instruments issued by a number of other Sub-Saharan African countries and other frontier markets sovereigns in the early part of this decade under favorable global financing conditions.

In general, refinancing risk is exacerbated by the country’s narrow domestic capital market and exposure to changes in risk appetite by international investors.

While the increasing share of non-resident investors’ holdings of government securities has somewhat eased the government’s financing constraint, it amplifies the sensitivity of financing conditions to fluctuations in foreign investors’ sentiment.

As of 2017, about 60% of Zambia’s government debt was contracted externally.

Moreover, the significant proportion of debt denominated in foreign currency (also estimated at about 60% of the total) heightens Zambia’s exposure to a depreciation of the exchange rate, which would raise the debt burden significantly and rapidly as seen in the recent past.

While the currency has been stable so far this year, downward pressure may intensify given Zambia’s fragile external position.

The country’s foreign exchange reserves have fallen, contrary to Moody’s previous expectations, and despite a large increase in copper prices until recently and a narrower current account deficit to 3.9% of GDP in 2017 from 4.6% of GDP in 2016.

Foreign exchange reserves reached US$1.8 billion as of April-2018, equivalent to about two months of imports, down from about three months at end 2017, commonly considered a minimum level of reserves adequacy.

Moody’s expects foreign exchange reserves adequacy to remain very low.

In particular, largely as a result of the fall in reserves, Moody’s External Vulnerability Index (EVI), which measures the ratio of the sum of external debt due over the next year and non-resident deposits to foreign exchange reserves is expected to increase, to around 150% in 2019.

The EVI will likely rise further in the coming years as external debt payments becoming due increase without reserves accretion.


The outlook is stable, reflecting balanced risks at the Caa1 rating level.
The outlook captures downside risks related to persistent fiscal and liquidity challenges, a high and rising debt burden, low foreign exchange reserves buffers and moderate domestic political risk.

These challenges are balanced by strong growth potential, derived from ample natural resources and a young population which point to possible upside risks in the medium term.


Evidence that fiscal consolidation will probably be effective and sustained, reducing refinancing risks and reversing the upward debt trajectory would likely prompt Moody’s to upgrade the rating.

The probability of an upgrade would rise materially if an improvement in the fiscal metrics would be accompanied by diminished external vulnerability risks due to a significant increase in foreign exchange reserves.


A rating at this levels signals that default risk is rising materially, even if default is not yet the base case.

Moody’s would downgrade the rating were it to conclude that the pressures set out above were rising further and that the likelihood of the government undergoing some form of default event had risen.

Such an outcome would most likely be driven by a further increase in liquidity pressures due for example to larger than currently anticipated fiscal slippages creating higher than expected annual refinancing needs; or to a shift in external investor sentiment which threatened the government’s access to finance at affordable rates; or by other factors that led to a further erosion of the foreign exchange buffer that would also jeopardize external financing.

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  1. Surely do you expect any positive news here…I mean we have an economy overseen by absolutely lazy empty tins who are not ashamed to ask another country to assist them with repayments of loans they used on grossly inflated projects and govt procurements. The President is so useless that he justifies procurement of 42 X 42 firetrucks and ambulances for $288K…you can only imagine the cost of other tenders like ICT.

    • Its amazing how Gay Jay maggot relies on Zambian Witch Doctor for fake news. What $288 K are you talking about? Do you even know how that procurement was structured? Get facts before you expose your bitterness.
      Your Under 5 Kaponya is busy losing ground in your strongholds while you’re busy commenting on Facebook and LT blogging over things you don’t know. Cheap UPND cadres who don’t even vote on the ground.
      Gay Jay comments on everything but has no in depth knowledge about anything.
      Slimy maggot

    • There was a song way back before radio Mulungushi and other radio stations being played a lot. I hope the can start playing this song again over and over just like I suggested last year. The title of the song or maybe just the lyrics, “INKONGOLE SHI LETA UMU SEBANYA”. What has happened to those economist who graduating from University of Zambia? The rate of borrowing for the last 10 years and just the fascination about was including now way above the Zambian means of revenues. Too much spending without watching what’s coming in.

      Can all the dumb Zambian Politicians read through and understand the great vision Simon Mwansa Kapwepwe had for Zambia. And that was just in the 60s which those policies has adopted and implemented, that should’ve have made Zambia be in the best top 3…

    • Imwe ba skull head, what in-depth knowledge do you yourself have apart from insults that you pour on HH or your so-called under 5 kaponyas? If we took out “HH” or “under 5 kaponyas” from the equation, you will have literally zero contribution. Check yourself before you attack others.
      Jay Jay may have some truth in what he saying, what do you expect when you go make headlines in newspapers showing that you are in trouble, and you can’t pay your debts, do you think lenders will sit back and wait until Erdogan help you pay back?. Come on guys, even a grade 7 pupil understands this. Stop cheating yourselves. Direct your bitterness to someone else, to those who have brought us into this mess, those who are stealing, etc.

    • General kanene you’re one of the bitter UPND cadres.
      When is your Petition going to be heard?
      When are you UPND hungry crooks going to start the impeachment process in parliament?
      When are greedy UPND MPs staging the next walk out of Parliament?

      Just check out how your UPND parrot Gay Jay was demolished by Saulosi. Gay Jay is a jack of all trades but a master of none. UPND quacks


    • General kanene you’re one of the bitter UPND cadres.
      When is your Petition going to be heard?
      When are you UPND hungry crooks going to start the impeachment process in parliament?
      When are greedy UPND MPs staging the next walk out of Parliament?

      Just check out how your UPND parrot Gay Jay was demolished by Saulosi. Gay Jay is a jack of all trades but a master of none. UPND quacks

      https :// www .lusakatimes. com /2016/06/11/outrage-killing-hippos-south-luangwa-revealed/

    • I know you are paid to diverge attention from the important discussion, so I am not going to waste my time arguing with you whether I am UPND or not. I have made this clear several times, if you keep statistics or records such as what you have pulled out against Jay Jay, I am sure you will have the same on me concerning my clarification of not being neither UPND nor PF. Young man, its high time you stuffed that hollow skull with something sensible, not just insults. I know you can do better and you are capable, once in while you have shown you can think and contribute positively. We are talking about serious matters here, which will impact your children (if you have some). This is something that reasonable Zambia should be concerned about, do not underestimate.

    • non of the gentlemen above represent UPND in any way. I can confirm that I am currently the only official representative of the UPND. As chief strategist I advise the public to be wary of some of these PF cadres trying to paint a bad picture of our party. Please you can confirm my party membership number which is 1445. I thank you

      Chief Strategist of the UPND

      But like The Gudardian has rightly observed; Moody’s, S&P and other credit rating agencies surely deserve a failing grade. Like Marc joffe claims, traditional credit rating business is broken and that perhaps there is some way to use open source models of fixing it. Moody’s downgrade of the UK’s credit rating row in the recent past still remains consequential and highly controversial. The Guardian claim that moody and other credit rating agencies by and large are a byproduct of a broken industry hamstrung by obsolute regulation standard. They need to evolve to…

    • … and to encourage rather than to stifle countries’ innovation. It is therefore propestorus for LT to copy and paste stories from discredited scaremongering agencies like Moody. I put to you that not everything the credit agency throws on it’s website is gospel truth. Countries have a way of coming out’a debt challenges. I thank you.

      Guess what? Moody was number two on the list.

    • Its well known tactic these simple minds deploy …dont waste your engaging them as they only want to waste space talking about irrelevant issues like the opposition.

    • Truth stings. We just don’t settle for any news item coming our way without analysing the source and it’s shortcomings. We scrutinize the source and weigh in to balance the scale of the news flow. It’s like us checking word by word your leader’s misleading statements on different fora as lying detectors. It is extremely important for us to offer alternative views from misleading commentaries from extremely dangerous view points and sources from “the sky is falling” scaremongers like you. Calm the hell down chicken little. The debt will be handled.

    • Thorn….

      “…..The debt will be handled….”

      How ? By begging other countries to pay for you ??

      Hehehehe , these kaponya rats are shocking ……

    • Calm the hell down. You don’t have solutions. We have the able GOVERNMENT in place. Ushered in, in 2016.
      Just allow your self to be governed. When we do have elections in the land where you ‘re an eligible voter don’t stay away. That was disappointing. Now that is your role as a citizen of this land. Although we do have some debt (Eurobond) to start to repay come 2022 and others, we have the able GOVERNMENT to get it done. Besides study your Moody’s grading completely and properly, you will discover that the world will not come to an end at all. These bitter lots awe sure.

    • IF you want to measure the literacy of Zambian Emotional Cadres, observe from their defensive emotional postings, these are essential detailed statistics that should make us look at possible strategic measure to overcome our challenges. Very few comment objectively. It’s all about a divisive clueless audience. We need a serious mindset change because no one will fix Zambia apart from Us. IT is clear OUR LEADERS NEED HELP. THEY have failed and we have Wrong Minister of Finance PERIOD. Performance Evaluation Score? I GIVE her 1 over 5..


    • Zambia is experiencing wasted years with Lungu and PF. Absolutely feckless. We must weep for Zambia!

  2. Ries, ries and more ries.
    It’s the imperialists trying to stifle Zambia.
    Power supply is stable
    Roads are touching every corner of the land
    Investors are going through a hiatus, then they’ll be flocking back to us
    Youth empowerment is strongly growing

    • “……Investors are going through a hiatus, then they’ll be flocking back to us…”

      Hehehehe ……that was the story we were told when we paid $1million/km for roads.

      I ain’t no economist , but I can confidently say Zambias citizens are taxed out to have any spare disposable income to attract proper investors……cost of doing bussiness too high, and a largely unskilled population as artisans….


    • Keep cheating yourself…electricity is stable yet you have huge debts to pay for that power you were importing..anyway people like you only understand Rhumba dancing and drinking whilst you are duped.

    • Thorn in the flesh

      “..No country in the world has “No debt”. Heavy or light. Don’t lie and cheat.”

      But we don’t see those other countries begging for other countries to pay their debt do we now ?

    • Because you haven’t been snooping your political noses in other countries affair now, do you? Since the upndead, like you suggested, is scared of governing a debt burdened country like Zambia, watch and see how technocrats will save your scared chicken little heart out’a worries. Have you witnessed how scared a chicken can get at every freaky moment? Calm the hell down and get governed. The Sky is not falling at all.

    • Look at this rat ati
      “calm the hell down ”

      because they think they have the option of begging another country to pay their debt……hehehehehe….thinking of a kaponya pf rat is Some thing else….

  3. Its only an opinion but a Long-term holding investor in Zambians Bonds will be compensated for taking that risk given the real options country Zambia has in the restructure The main issue has been the China Us Concern Tariff Really but Zambia offers that Investments opportunities beyond the bonds I like John Moody and his rationale but sometimes markets turn out more favorable for that long-term Investor and such is Zambia’,s The prepayment risks interests sovereignty or default risks concerns or other may not be there in reality because of funding opportunities and partners Country Zambia has that is not limited to Turkey only and Turkey may be the last option

    • From your earlier contribution to the article concerning the repayment of the $3 billion Eurobond, I took it you are a high profile person from the PF government. It is evident here, you are struggling to explain the mood ratings, all you are giving us is some hypothetical situation that could happen, and you are not even sure. Which “…funding opportunities and partners Country Zambia has…”are you referring to, can you be specific?
      And as usual, we head the same song 2 years, do you recall the “external factors” that you were talking about, to even justify load shedding? Now you have a new case to justify Zambia `s performance, do you know what it is? US-CHINA Tariffs !!!!! God help us, please stop these lies.

  4. I don’t even need to read this. I already know Zambia is in deep sh.it…..for the money we owe , there are not enough real jobs and unemployment levels are too high……we import too much……..as it stands 2 things stand between Zambia total bankruptcy …..good weather and a stable world copper price……any negative variance in either of those , it’s closing time folks…

    • We will not stop borrowing like it or not. See what double h did? He sold all our mines for a song, benefited from the raw deals and is using the same money (proceeds from his crimes) to sponsor co-investors at moody to fabricate stories. We are not gonna have it. FAKE NEWS!

    • Thorn….

      “…proceeds from his crimes..”

      Was HH arrested or was he debarred from any professional body like lungu was ?

    • Facts are Facts, arrested or not, barred from some professional body or not. Facts are Facts. The chap was in the league of gullibles who sold our mines. And Yes your stooge stole.

  5. Worry not folks, Zambia is on the way back up before 2021.
    We still have $1.8 Billion? Hakainde’s nephew at Zambian Witch Doctor was lying that PF has squandered the $2 Billion reserves which MMD left behind.

    • After all that sontaring and dancing dunnuna , $17 billion later , is that all you have to show ?

    • Spaka my friend I can feel your agony 2021 is too far for you.
      While the people’s choice President Lungu is ruling you are ranting about Moody’s.
      Keep ranting old friend or change strategies and come check out what is on the ground in Zambia.
      Come and vote for Kainde instead of just punching your keyboard in UK.
      It will be another Sonta po!

    • Kudos , so now you PF rats know more than moodys ?

      Tell us , maybe there is something the rats know about the economy that everyone else is complaining about ?

    • I actually want to see lungu rule beyond 2021…..he created the mess not even HH can fix, let lungu deal with it…

    • Because the USA and other western powers borrow does not mean you are in the same league as them…..you can’t even make a spoon….

    • @Mr Kudo
      Do you believe this scaremonger chicken little spaka’s assertion that he has given up supporting his stooge double h to scoop 2021 polls?
      What does spaka understand about governing and the economy imwe piliz? Kekekekekekekeke, bahaha! Ati not even double h can fix it. He is just dull.

    • Well look were you theives have got us….after borrowing $17 billion you still have cholera 8 miles from statehouse , infact the corrupt theif went to chawama as MP and left chawama still ravaged by cholera……you build roads but there are no jobs ?

      Now it’s begging time ati

      ” what do you know of the economy “

    • Because the USA yada yada…
      Oh please, cut the crap! Don’t they love it when you borrow from them? Your stooge stole from the Privatization program. Your mines were your assets Mr. unschooled economic expert. If as you claim double h is a smart kid, why didn’t he stand up for good morals and patriotism against the theiving MMD government? No no, he chose to get level and personal with the country’s most valued assets because of his selfish nature. Why? Poverty basa! Cuts on national economic drivers into his pocket. What a sham! But hey, the current Government or next coming Government will fix it as the economy diversifies not the upndead losers. All you double h kids and siblings are enjoying the proceeds from crime. ECL, look these kids are laughing at you. Diversify your economy…

    • Hehehehe ati

      ” ….ECL, look these kids are laughing at you. Diversify your economy…”

      You mean his bank account ?


    • And thorn…we are not laughing at lungu, the joke is on you PF rats……its just just valueless to watch you rats trying to defend lungu ……very very funny.

  6. I like the Greek They stayed resolute and navigated the seemingly hopeless situation during the Financial crisis Such hopelessness is not the same as Zambia situation The rating is at Caa1 very informative of the positive actions to be done to improve and sail favorably above the Junk status Its cast in the stone and structurally stiff but effecting adjustments cyclically and align to avoid the risks in the moody requires hard work and Zambia is more capable,well positioned and well resourced than Greece to navigate

    • Really ? Tourisim in Greece contributes almost $30 billion pa to the economy , which part of Zambia can contribute that amount ?

    • I guess the 12C refers to your age. The Greek had an bailout from the EU. Before you comment make your homework. If you do belive that an investor from Turkey will bail-out Zambia you are more than mistaken. Turkey is sliding into dictatorship with a guy running the country down who thinks to fight inflation by lowering interest rates. Turkey is also in deep economic trouble aa their external debt of the privat sector is too high. They do not have the means to refinance and if you find someone it’s not getting cheaper even when the government is claiming this. You need a strong and reliable government to get out of the debt trap and not the usual Zambian NATO tactic (No Action Talk Only). I guess the government thinks that they will get debt relief like in 2005/6 but this time most…

    • Bwana, Greece did not just “navigate”, if they navigated they would not have been where they are now. Stop looking for shortcuts or loopholes, just work hard.
      Fight or reduce corruption, that is the evil that is impacting the economy. Don’t ask me for evidence, just lock those corrupt people in your government, and you will have a key to improving the economy without “navigating”.

    • Hey Thorn, your incompetence is amazing. Please keep posting. I haven’t read more funny stuff like yours. The US is our biggest donor with grants. And you talking about borrowing. I guess the village you got your education from has only a first grade. In case, I doubt this that you think that far, you meant private investors which are taking your last penny. But keep posting its hilarious to read and defend the impossible. But do not worry your Chinese friends which is your biggest lender will give you a good deal and most likely evict you from your home. Could be your property to pay back the loans from China. China never give something for free. They have a bigger plan and believe me it’s not for the people of our country. Please keep posting I like your smart analysis of the state of…

  7. That is what i am saying and is the point The sector has some correlation with agriculture and in the EU Greece is in it Pigs name them People travel simply to sample the cheese Many farmers faced financial and operational leverage but never lost hope and together with the Gov and Eu community worked out the navigation to stable and working business environment and such is not the Zambian hopeless case

    • I guess I can’t debate an opinion with arguments. Moodys downgrade is something serious. I do not know what some feta farmers have in common with an overspending government. Such a case like Zambia is now is nothing you just can talk away. Lack of confidence by rating agency’s is nothing you just can talk away with cheap phrases as some people comment here or they have a good sense of humor and still praising the government. Investors just look at their money they want to get back. The main risks is that the ZMW will depriciate further and this makes it even harder to repay the debt. But as most supporters say here the government is so clever they know what they doing. And for sure there is no corruption and no money is spend to by elections. There is overwhelming support for this…

  8. This is a confussing case , we have mwanakatwe preaching austerity and saying everything is under control while stalking the IMF for a bailout , we have lungu haphazardly creating more districts then on the other side we have rating agencies firing warning shots……..too complicated for me…..

    • Hahaha ,Rupiah Banda is laughing now that these “better PF stewards” have ruined his economic wonders and proved very incompetent. Karma is real.

  9. Kikiki eh! We in the UPND have long been singing about effective and responsible fiscal management. Alas when things go as we predicted no one from the PF has the guts to take the blame like a man. As we do not recognise ka Lungu, I will refer to him as the small boy. Meanwhile today the small boy was begging from turkey which is a countty with a very questionable political status. So what do u expect? Its like me me lending money to a poor friend who then goes on to spend money on himself and his cronies without having any plans of repaying it. Then the same poor man then asks for some one else to clean his mess for him and then still expects an excellent credit rating? It is only in zambia where poverty means that there will be no vote of confidence even when it is clear as day light…

    • CONT: to see that PF have failed this country. The only way we will get out of this is when nature takes its course and these leaders die

    • I am sorry, but UPND you are also part of the problem because you are not putting forward a credible opposition.
      The real Zambians here who are trying to highlight the problems have no one to turn to and many Zambians have no choice than to join the dununa reverse chorus, so at least for a moment, they are consoled to forget about their daily problems. The Chilanga elections should be a wake-up call for you folks in UPND. Please focus on coming up with a credible strategy, or else you will lose the little support that has remained with few people here. Tell HH, UPND is not doing well.

    • general kanene, you seem to miss the point. We as UPND are facilitators. You cannot expect us to do everything for you. A political party is like a teacher. A teacher offers you knowledge and guides you to achieve a qualification. You cannot expect the same teacher to sit an exam on your behalf! In other words, you cannot expect us to vote for you. By you sainf that the chilanga elections were based on dununa reverse short term benefits, it means deep down you know that UPND is a better alternative. So why do u fail to make the right choice? to me the problem is with you, who continually votes for something that has no long term benefit for you. One we will never do as UPND is to buy your loyalty. Those are the types of politics we are trying to get rid of. thank you brother

    • Pure young chicken little mentality. I can assure you, take my word for it. “The Sky is not falling at all”
      We are doing just fine.

  10. i did not say the bailout initiative proposal from Turkish firm is right no neither did i say the Greeks never received an ODA or bailout NO

    The economic prospects in the global for Zambia well diversified are quiet very bright Take for Insatance exports of Soya Beans to Chna taking advantage of the comparative costs with those now higher in cost due to increased tariffs,You can easily raise USD 750 Million in 2 quarters

    • you are a dreamer! please wake up and smell the coffee you desperate cadre. I do not blame you as we all know that things under PF are bad! you need to eat, so i will excuse your bootlicking

    • Not you can.you have to write in our case you could. Only a government which adhere to good governance can do and a government which put citizen first, especially the poor. In which universe did our country raised 750 million USD in 2 quarters? But I like your sense of humor. Two thumps up. Everybody knows where the main share of all the debt is going. And by the way it’s not infrastructure,at least not public infrastructure.

    • @12C
      Excellent observation.
      In the eyes of these chicken littles, the sky is falling. How they love the story of the Government failing.

  11. I see there is little exploitation of the commodity resources we have We do not see the futures and options we have in corn and Soya beans

    How much tonnes of Soya beans can you export to china to raise say USD 3 Billion at spot price (now) using either prisons Zns or Zambia army and let alone the mkushi farmers with a negotiated future price from say Chinese Gov locking in the USD 3 Billion

    How many tonnes of corn or soya at spot price now for that capacity of land and how many seasons of irrigation to satisfy the ever chinese appetite for proteins or in simple terms how many 90 kgs of soya or corn at a price similar to traders from…

  12. Brasil or the US for the expanse of hectares of land we have So give me the tonne age and price I show you how you can derive USD 3 Billion fro Soya or corn and meet the repayment by locking in with the Populace Chinese more than 1.2 Billion People Its not soya or corn alone that can achieve the same revenues needed by also …………???? for projected tonnage of ……………per yield of the ……………hectares

    • Iwe @12C, I think you are addressing your knowledge to wrong people, ati “give me the tonne age and price I show you how you can derive USD 3 Billion fro Soya or corn”, give us a break. Ask PF government to give you that information, it’s them who need to raise USD 3 Billion to cover Eurobond. If you are an advisor, why didn’t you advise the President instead of him embarrassing himself by begging for help?
      And if you are not PF, then I would say, PF need to hire you, they need people like you but hope you will not fall into the same trap.

    • No offense but you really, really belive that a government organization will be able to operate efficiently? I agree we could but tell me one thing what the government achieved? Tell me one parastatel which is not rum down by incompetent management and employment of Cadre with no qualifications. Tell me one ministry which is not under siege of corruption and is delivering service to the people first instead of thinking of their own belly? Even more than 50 years after independence most people suffer except those in government and connected to them. What you are writing is theory but would work because is not in the interest of certain people in power. And look at the caliber of ministers? In which developed or emerging country you would find such people in this important positions? Our…

  13. Assuming you attended the brics and met the Chinese President and discussed the agricultural commodities exports to China and He gave you the quota for the soya beans in demand
    Knowing you to be a typical Zambian farmer less mechanised that the US or Brazil your yield per hectare (median) could be 65000 Tonnes/bags per hectare that at spot price of USD 8 Tonnes/bags at 2000 hectares that gives you the at least I Billion Dollars and if your hectares cultivated is more than 4000 say 10000 hectares you agreed sells quota to China is a cool USD 5.2 Billion using combined ZNS Prisons and Commercial and export to China for the at least 2 quarters

  14. You can agree with China for the commodity exchange to meet the repayment with agricultural soya beans and corn exports in that model It’s not always tick for tick You can remodel not always copper

    Remember the 4.1 growth the US registered and revenue positive flows is as a result of Soya and Corn Increased exports to China

    So you can see that Zambia has great potential and the ratings are only an opinion and sometimes reflects singles or a particular asset classes I like John Moody though as an indicator of Business risk

  15. 1.” budget deficit won’t narrow below 7% of GDP until the next decade”.
    2.”Foreign exchange reserves reached US$1.8 billion, equivalent to about two months of imports”
    3.”Moody’s expects the debt burden to approach 70% of GDP in 2020″
    Gosh ,very sad reading yet Zedians wrongly thought RB was doing badly in 2011 with $3.5bn forex reserves,low debt and 6.3% growth.

  16. we have always said that Lungu has no capacity to govern Zambia; here you have it; PF cadres no too that no country or company will pay another country’s debt for nothing; Lungu is selling Zambia; first to the Chinese; now to the Muslims; the likes of Sharon and Mr Kudos et al; only see anyone criticising Lungu and PF to be UPND; when will PF cadres grow up and stop defending the wrong?

  17. Zambia is a back as a highly indebted poor country hipc I the pf government in 5 years have borrowed more than the Kaunda government did in 27 years

  18. From the PF rats commenting above you can see why their leaders are so du.ll …..they are now trying to discredit moodys.

    Anyways chaps don’t worry, lungu has found a novel way of getting us outa this dept……invite other leaders over , then show them some impala at statehouse , then , bait set ,…….bang….. ask them to pay the debt…..and in PF kaponya rat land all is well, the sky is not falling…

  19. 2:3 and 5.5
    The Answer is Germany!!! The most stable economy and democracy in the world!!! Hard working people and leaders and less corrupt!!!
    So „Thorn in the flesh“ show me your lunatic yapping trash.

  20. If the same says good rating the same Tribal gatherings doubt the forecast if the same guys rate concerns the same tribal gathering is happy! MAD COW DISEASE!

  21. Sharon is loosing her mind, it’s true what General Kanene said remove HH from the equation and these guys would have nothing to contribute. Moody can see through us and at the rate we are going with corrupt leaders and a president who wants to travel more than Putin, Trump, Macron and Xi Jinping combined there will be no money left to pay our debt.

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