By: Anthony Bwalya – UPND Member
Let’s be clear: Zambia’s bonds are junk. They are trading at close to 65% discount right now. It means investors are willing to dump them for only 35% of their original value because they do not believe they will ever get their money back.
But there are consequences to this.
Restructuring Zambia’s public debt through Capital Markets will cost close to 60% more than the initial cost of this debt. That is close to $600m more debt to restructure the existing debt
At the height of the Bill 10 debate, just when the PF was proposing to put a dagger in the back of our Republican constitution,one Garry Nkombo took the house to the task and raised a point of order tied to the court action that one Dipak Patel had commenced against the PF regime; questioning the LEGALITY of all public debt contracted after 2016.
Now, I speak confidently on the legality of all debt contracted after 2016 by the PF regime because my thoughts have always been in the public domain and there are numerous records to corroborate my stance on this.
The PF regime has been contracting public debt without the approval of Parliament, contrary to relevant sections under Articles 63, 114 and 207; the same sections they are now trying to remove using Bill 10. You can refer to my historical positions on this matter and note that I have always called it illegal borrowing.
This is problematic for the PF. Firstly, it demonstrates a lack of patience and discipline in planning for public borrowing, to the extent that they were prepared to disregard the Constitution just to get their hands on expensive capital markets, and they did.
The only motivation for the lawlessness and commission of illegality by the PF regime is corruption and the need for people to get paid commissions just to tie our country into debt. This has happened before in Mozambique and there was consequences. See the links herein:
https://amp.economist.com/middle-east-and-africa/2019/08/22/a-2bn-loan-scandal-sank-mozambiques-economy
https://www.google.com/amp/s/qz.com/africa/1519653/mozambique-finance-minister-arrested-credit-suisse-fbi-caught-up/amp/
In fact, high ranking members of the PF regime are most likely to have received hefty kickbacks, running in hundreds of millions of dollars just to commit our country to capital markets’ debt.
Zambians must weary of the appetite for corruption and illegality by the PF regime.
An IMF bailout demands discipline, the credibility of political leadership and a real commitment to sober public expenditure patterns. This is something that capital market operatives are not interested in because they make their money in commissions on the loans issued, that is all.
It is foolish for the PF regime, to turn their backs on multilateral initiatives and run into the hands of loan sharks.
A few things should happen right now:
- There will have to be a process of reassessing the legality of Zambia’s public debt so that the state can void all such debt and individual members of the regime be held personally accountable for the criminality
- Zambia to institute a credible, talented team of negotiators to engage multilateral partners and negotiate an alternative rescue package away from capital markets.
- Zambians must commit to a change of government because a lot of this depends on it.
We are about to lose our country to political greed.
They are doomed. They are even cooking covid figures. Corona mixed with HIV, they will die like flies. Some are thinking that they are doing better than developed nation and yet the Africa is many months away. When the peak reaches, I expect at least 3 million deaths just in Zambia. This is based on empirical evidence
Africa is not poor it’s poorly managed
Zambia must learn to change government frequently its good for us
The maximum most presidents in developed countries last is 4 years, a second term is only reserved for a few, look at America out 45 presidents roughly about 10 or so have hit the second term jackpot , here politicians will lie to you that they want to finish their projects that’s why they need a second even a third term.
Zambia you are not doomed in The Name of Jesus
Why wish Zambia so much ill? Does wishing the country well mean wishing the PF well? Please separate the two.
@Nemwine
Have you heard of how the Ostrich died with its head buried in the sand?
Whichever way you toss the coin you are F.UCKED ….. James Hadley Chase
An option for lungu and PF would be to auction off the country to the Chinese and make it the second largest land mass out side China with the most Chinese citizens….
We know the Chinese are always looking for lands to colonise , under lungu , Zambia is a prime candidate.
”Zambians must commit to a change of government because a lot of this depends on it.
We are about to lose our country to political greed.”-LT
Current PF administration this is betrayer of the Republic at it’s best. while the military in camouflage uniform standing behind you.
PF time-out, What did we ever did to you? for You to destroy lusaka stock exchange.
Which everway you toss the coin, the IMF holds the Four Aces ……. James Hadley Chase 1977
Why is everyone but PF concerned about our economy. ?
Maybe PF know something we don’t , maybe they have a trick up their sleeve ?
PF is like a Gorilla!
When a Gorilla snatches your baby, you need a fight to get it back. The question is: Are Zambians ready to fight for Independence from PF misrule? The current generation of Zambians would not have managed to secure Zambia’s Independence!
All debt accrued illegally will be laid on the head of the PF Secretariat. The lenders must take liability for aiding and abetting illegalities!
Who would you rather get a loan from a bank or loan shark? One gets a loan from a bank enough to cover what you need to be done at a fixed interest rate and long term basis, another goes to a loan shark that won’t give you what you need to do what you want to do and with a monthly compounding interest in case you default. A bank is well regulated whereas a loan shark is not. Those that get loans from loan sharks never get enough hence they keep coming back to get more and more simply because a loan from loan sharks does not require much to be done to get a d that is the greatest trick they play on people inclined to vanity. It’s so easy such that it will make you not really realize the cost you are suffering. The problem is the income you generate elsewhere will keep going to the loan…
Contd. The problem is the income you generate elsewhere will keep going to the loan shark and you keep getting from the loan shark suffering interest every month. If we knew how to manage debt as a country and reach a level where we are self sustaining, sufficient and dependent then this issue would not be on our minds but this can only come when we become responsible in ensuring we moving away from a trend where we have budget deficits that we expect well wishers to chip in and help, otherwise why is the pretence in saying we don’t need IMF yet we want donor funds to chip in our budgets all the time that is being a hypocrite. Make debt work for and not you working for debt.
Indeed Zambia likes kaloba which is sweet and easy to obtain in order to meet current needs yet has long term consequences as it keeps you in the debt rut. Countries that are not disciplined in their fiscal and monetary policies and management are the ones that shudder at the prospect of going to the IMF. Every person that gets a loan needs to be disciplined in using those funds because that’s not your money firstly and when you default you will suffer the consequences of your indiscipline. We see banks here in Zambia grab and sell off assets of those that default and we have no problem with that, so why should we have a problem at a national level? I only wonder what Zambia offered as collateral on the loans contracted already I pray this is revealed to the zambian people because I…
I only wonder what Zambia offered as collateral on the loans contracted already I pray this is revealed to the zambian people because I worry maybe there is no much collateral left that is why PF is scared of IMF or could be the reason IMF won’t grant Zambia a loan. May the public demand to know what loans govt contracted and at what cost. Who knows maybe ZESCO, ZNBC , ZAMPOST, TIMES of Zambia, KCM, Luanshya copper mines, RTSA, ZAFICCO, NRDC, even National parks are offered is already as collateral on the loans.
KAIZER ZULU – wont comment on this because he does not have the mental capacity to comment on such, for him its just cadre polictics and threatening citizens in Chicagos.
Speak, President Lungu is now listening and we are are all listening to new and fresh ideas…just hope that you are not campaigning
Donkey forum. Losers believing their lies. Their ka tonga president issuing tuma fake decrees on Facebook. Propaganda media space shrinking as prime tuvi is shut. Losing elections in their Western province stronghold and N/Western very shaky. Bill 10 going through. Ati “PF is doomed” – by the queer Tarino…..life is tough as a donkey!!!!
Ba Anthony Bwalya, why didn’t your magic and propaganda work in Nangula ward of western province and why didn’t your people “overwhemingly” vote for upnd??????
Freedom means you determine your own destiny. It’s high time we found our own solutions to problems. Use other people’s ideologies and you become slaves. How many times have we fallen for these tricks where the goal posts constantly move? Wheather it’s bonds, loans or policies. Africa’s solutions is within the continent. Look back at our rich culture which we have abandoned for clues. If our cultures have been preserved for thousands of years, why on earth are we following the European way of self-destruction? We are constantly being told that our organic way of living is primitive but this virus has exposed this lie. We should never abandon our healthy organic foods for GMO’s, rich forests for concrete jungles just to fit the bill.
Let’s change the narative and rediscover ourselves. We are good at what we do when the ideas are original. Look at what’s happened to our music, the talent speaks for itself. We don’t have talented politicians because the concept is not original. We follow concepts which were never designed for our way of living. Our constitution is a mess because it’s derived from a plagiarised document which was designed to oppress rather than liberate the people of Zambia. Ask the chiefs how they have governed their subjects for hundreds of years and you’ll find clues as to how we should have created our new constitution. We keep falling for the same trap but expect a different outcome everytime we try.