By Sishuwa Sishuwa
Election rigging in many of Africa’s democracies occurs through a range of strategies, such as ballot-box stuffing, electoral bribery, violence against political opponents and the emasculation of the independent media that usually serve as the main outlet for opposition parties denied coverage in state-run publications. Other tactics involve putting dead voters on the electoral register, creating irregularities to obstruct voters and, more recently, using fake news to sway the electoral outcome.
These strategies have been used to varying success, but they are not as common as they once were. Their susceptibility to failure and the infectious willingness by the judiciary to nullify fraudulently won elections, as recently happened in Kenya and Malawi, has prompted incumbent presidents elsewhere to devise more sophisticated and subtle ways of guaranteeing they stay in power. A clear example is Zambia’s President Edgar Lungu. Ahead of the general election in August 2021, he devised a twofold strategy that would eliminate the possibility of removing him from power through the ballot.
Step 1: Amend the Constitution
The first mechanism Lungu created to shape the outcome of the 2021 presidential election is an amendment to the Constitution that enables the formation of a coalition government if none of the candidates get more than 50% of the total valid votes cast. The Constitution currently allows a second ballot between the top two candidates.
Lungu barely scraped a victory in the last general election in 2016, winning by 50.3%. This time, he is not taking any chances. His governing Patriotic Front (PF) party has taken to Parliament a Constitution of Zambia (Amendment) Bill Number 10 of 2019 which proposes another stage to Zambia’s election between the first vote and a potential run-off.
In this middle stage, if no presidential candidate has won more than 50% in the first round, then the leading candidate, but no other candidate, could propose a coalition with a losing candidate of their choice, with the only requirement being that “the combined votes of that presidential candidate and the preferred presidential candidate forming the coalition government meet the threshold of more than 50% of the valid votes cast”. It retains the existing constitutional provision on the run-off, but only if the presidential candidate with the highest number of votes fails to form a coalition government within the specified time period.
This suggests Lungu is anticipating another close election where he may emerge with more votes than his rivals but fall short of the required 50% + 1 vote threshold. In this instance, just an extra 2% or 3% may be needed to form a winning majority. This will probably come from smaller, Lungu-friendly parties that are in opposition in name only. Their votes total may be tiny, but this amendment could turn them into kingmakers. The much-criticised Bill requires the support of two-thirds of the MPs to pass. If all MPs from the main opposition United Party for National Development (UPND) manage to remain resilient to bribery, the Bill won’t be passed.
Step 2: Abolish the voters’ roll
The second way Lungu is rigging the election is by abolishing the current voters’ register, numbering six million electors, and creating a new one favourable to his prospects. Senior figures in the PF said Lungu is afraid he will lose the 2021 poll if the voters’ roll used in the last general election is not discarded. His fears are not unfounded. He was first elected in the 2015 presidential by-election that followed Michael Sata’s untimely death in office. He was re-elected in the disputed 2016 polls, narrowly defeating Hakainde Hichilema, leader of the UPND, who polled 47.6% of the total presidential votes cast.
In both elections, Lungu finished first in the same six of Zambia’s 10 provinces and Hichilema finished first in four provinces. Lungu knows he is in trouble because Electoral Commission of Zambia (ECZ) data shows that voter turnout was, on average, higher in the regions won by his rival compared with those that voted for him. In both 2015 and 2016, he won his heartlands with comparatively smaller margins than his nearest rival won his strongholds. In the 2016 election, for instance, Lungu received 42 902 and 46 255 votes in the Southern and Western provinces, and Hichilema got 527 893 and 226 722 votes, respectively. In the Copperbelt and Lusaka provinces, Lungu received 345 275 and 375 760 votes, and Hichilema 189 562 and 242 172 votes, respectively.
If this pattern continues, one thing is clear: Lungu, whose support in urban areas is likely to decrease because of Zambia’s faltering economy, will not win the next general election.
Sources in the commission said Lungu exerted significant pressure on the electoral body to abolish the permanent register rather than updating it, as required by law, and as has been done in each election since 2005 when it was first created. The electoral commission announced in June that it would discard the register. On 21 September, days after using the same register to hold a series of parliamentary and local government by-elections, the commission told citizens that their registrations would no longer be valid: “If you do not register, you will not vote in the 2021 general election. The current voters’ card will not be used in the 2021 general election.”
Recognising the limited time that remains before the 2021 election — less than 10 months — the commission pledged to allocate not more than 30 days to the voter registration exercise, starting on 28 October. By using the commission this way, Lungu hopes to disenfranchise as many opposition supporters as possible. Three of the four provinces in which Hichilema retains huge support, for instance, are in rural areas. Limited publicity about the commission’s plans to abolish the existing register, the long distances to the nearest administrative centres, the onset of the rainy season (which starts in late October), and the limited time available to complete the exercise will undermine the capacity of voters in these areas to take part in the voter registration. Moreover, the commission has admitted that the government has not provided it with sufficient funds for the exercise.
The current register was created over an 11-year period. The commission now says it is seeking to capture nine million voters within 30 days — a near impossibility. It has promised to complement mobile registration of voters with online registration, which it launched with 16 000 entries on 21 September. In addition to the lack of legislation to provide for online voter registration, there is also no experience of doing this in Zambia, a country with very limited internet penetration, especially in rural constituencies.
Moreover, in the absence of a clear regulatory framework to manage the exercise, the online registration system is open to misuse and fraud. It is not impossible to create a largely fake electorate that will mainly vote for the incumbent. An urgent legal challenge filed by citizens seeking to halt the commission’s decision to discard a valid and lawfully established voters’ register was postponed after the high court judge-in-charge, Gertrude Chawatama, who had earlier allocated the case to herself, stayed away on the day she was due to hear it, using the excuse that she had been exposed to Covid-19.
Taken together, these developments suggest that Lungu is, in effect, establishing the administrative, legal and constitutional mechanism for perpetuating his stay in office. Should his two main strategies fail, he is reported to have another card up his sleeve: strike a major blow against the opposition using electoral exclusion. Recent weeks have seen intense speculation in local media that Lungu harbours plans to arrest Hichilema on a trumped-up charge. If there is substance to this allegation, the objective would presumably be to secure a dubious conviction that would disqualify his main rival from the 2021 race.
The shrunken space for civil society to mobilise against his illegitimate actions, the weaknesses of the political opposition and the willingness of the judiciary to bow to presidential power mean that Lungu is likely to succeed in his attempt to fix the outcome of next year’s election.
By undermining elections, the Constitution, and the judiciary, Lungu, whose administration has already shut down the country’s leading independent newspaper and the most popular private television station, is weakening the very institutions that offer long-term hope for democratic consolidation. And by making it nearly impossible to democratically oppose him, the president is effectively eliminating lawful means of political competition for the occupation of government and is increasing the risk of large-scale civil unrest and violence. Zambia was once highly regarded as a model of democracy in Africa. It is now deep into a slide, not so much into a dictatorship as chaos.
Many people within and beyond have yet to come to terms with the country’s changing political character. By the time they do, it might be too late.
SO SAD.THE FOOLS AND *****S LIKE KZ ARE THE ONES BEHIND ALL OF THIS NONSENSE. BELIEVE ME OR NOT ZAMBIA IS HEADING TOWARDS A CRISES.WHAT EVER THIS MORON WILL TRY AND SAY NOTHING EVER MOVES ZAMBIANS.THE WHOLE PF PARTY HAS LOST PEOPLES FAVOR.KZ,RED LIP AND OTHERS IMMEDIATELY PF LOOSES WILL RUN AWAY FROM THERE OWN SHADOWS.IWE CHI KZ UBUBI KWANTI NIMWANKOLE UWA PINK.U LIKE INSULTING YOUR FELLOW HUMAN BEINGS AS HYENAS.IT PAINS ME ALOT. CZ U HAVE NO RESPECT CZ U HAVE BUILT ALL YOUR WEALTH DUBIOUSLY.TIME FOR ACCOUNTABILITY IS COMING.I WILL REMIND U WHEN U WILL BE ROTTING IN JAIL THAT REMEMBER THE WORDS OF PAOLO.
This is the dichotomy of a tyrant who has nothing to lose except gain for his selfish end and prepared to drag the whole nation into chasm
Wow. To be honest, there are very few (if any) remaining intellectuals of this caliber in this beautiful Country that has been raped and abused like a common whore. Thank you Mr Sishuwa for opening my eyes and laying bare Lungu’s rigging plans. This article makes perfect sense. I now fully understand what is going on. Justice Gertrude Chawatama, the Judge-in-Charge at the Lusaka High Court, where is your conscience?
Whether it is Lungu or not, this article highlights serious electoral concerns.
The voters’ roll needs changing only in year one after the General Elections, not months before, and 30 days is not enough because of a lot of logistics that will never be available, not within 30 days.
Wow! So the failure Lungu wants to impose himself on us huh? Kafumyenipo naimwe ama Zambians, we are not as impotent as Cameroonians or Rwandans. Kazavina ndende ule mu Zambia. Stand up against this character from Kitwe, kuti atu mweneshamo ati tatwakwata amano when we are the ones who put him in state house in the first place. Remove him!! So that azibe kuti boss ni ndani. K3.1 billion budget allocation to public order to justify the unbudgeted for military gear he gifted the police recently.
Why was the old electrol register discarded instead of just being
updated ?
Lungu is a crook par exalla……a seasoned crook…..a career criminal.
I have always said, he might get away with it now , but later aspiring presidential candidates will base their campain messages on brining lungu to justice….
Lungu will not have peace.
Well written dear Oxbridge Sishuwa. Can Zambian CSOs, the church and intelligentsia oft the Zambian society that love their country take action from an informed position.
I feel sorry for the man because his end will be very bad.
Well written dear Oxbridge Sishuwa. Can Zambian CSOs, the church and intelligentsia oft the Zambian society that love their country take action from an informed position. The love of country should unite Zambians
Thank you Dr. Sishuwa for using your brains for what they were primarily designed for, i.e to think. What you and I need now is to find practical ways to stand up and be counted. It won’t be any worse than this and if we simply lament, there will be no Zambia to talk about in the near future.
Imwe ba, “Kabwa lala…”, Take pf to court if you have enough evidence. People don’t feed on academic theories. People feed on things they are seeing such as infrastructure development and people practically using the infrastructure developed to become productive. If you have evidence, pls, petition them. Muli ba, ‘Tubwa lala’?
HH TAKATEKEPO with or without rigging
Well written and full of imaginary scenarios. All the scenarios prese t HH with opportunities. For example, new register, all HH followers can appear on that register if they so wish that their deity should be elected. Not even Lungu can stop them. Ballot stuffing takes place in all HH strongholds and they cannot be stopped. Even this time they will not be stopped. The only problem is HH and his stooges have not enough arsenals to throw. Chickens are coming to roast.
I have commented on all articles today and they have all been nothing but positive especially so about the budget. This is the only negative garbage posted today. Does it surprise me? No it doesn’t. Will I lose sleep over a tribally charged monkey like the author? Hell no.
WHAT WE NEED I S AN ELECTION RIGGING PETITION, NOT THIS NOSENSE. YOU HAVE SEEN AND HEARD HOW IT’S DONE. NEVERS MUMBA HAS JUST SHAD MORE LIGHT ON HOW IT’S DONE, INDIVIDUALS, INSTITUTIONS AND PROCESSES INVOLVED.
ALL PEACE LOVING ZAMBIAN’S SHOULD TAKE IT UPON THEMSELVES TO FIND OUT WHO FRUSTRATING THE DEMOCRATIC PROCESS TO FACILITATE THEIR GREED.
HOW CAN A CANDIDATE WITH SIX FAMILY MEMBERS, NEIGHBORS, BELONGS TO A CHURCH GET TWO VOTES. THIS IS CLASSIC OVER RIGGING.
WE WILL HAVE TO INVOLVE THE UN, AU, ICC THESE ARE THE ISSUES THAT KEEP ON DESTIBILISING THE WORLD MORE THAN WAR.
Watch “DR NEVERS MUMBA SPECIAL ADDRESS OVER LUKASHYA BY-ELECTION WHICH HE SAYS WERE RIGGED BY PF” on YouTube
Yebo Sishuwa,pen pushing cadres like you, are a millstone around Akainde Ichilema.
Think practical and talk policies.Trump excuses for failure are a disgrace. Snap out of this for the sake of your god Akainde!!!
Well written article. You really took your time, thank you.
Lungu can’t force him self on most of us.
KK tried this move, Zambian’s behave the same way…they will vote the PF out. A subset of villagers may vote for the PF but their numbers still won’t be enough.
It’s closing time for the PF.
Under 5 sympathizers already laying ground for excuses after they see he is fast losing ground before 2021. Don’t fan chaos twapapata.
All this was used over the years in Zimbabwe by ZPF, Lungu has learned well from Zimbabwe minders. once leaders get a taste of the good life they will do anything to hold on to power.
Sishuwa, I wonder if you have ever asked yourself how HH can win the Zambian Presidency when his party cannot win a majority in parliament. It is about time you thought about this seriously. Ask yourself whether Zambians vote on party lines or on the basis of the competence of individuals. In reflecting on this, ask yourself how much Zambians know about the individuals they vote for? When entering the voting booth to vote for a presidential candidate, an MP, a mayor or council chairman or chairperson, how many Zambians take time to reflect on the qualities of individuals they go to vote for? Is the Zambian voter’s party choice not what dictates who they should vote for as president, MP, Mayor or council Chairperson? If that is indeed the case, how would you then expect the party with…
… fewer MPs than the other to win the Zambian Presidency? Better to think about this as an academic, Dr. Sishuwa, than begin to sound like Trump’s conspiracy theorist on FOX NEWS.
Lungu is cheap crook, a common thief who stumbled upon a chance to make money posing as a legitimate leader. This Chawama thug has been nothing but a headache to our country. His plans to rig the election will not succeed though. Zambians are not that stup1d. We will not allow this criminal to manipulate the election so he can stay in power for another term. Fellow Patriotic Zambians, let us unite and remove this disgrace from our country’s highest office next year. Lungu doesn’t belong in State House. This criminal, Lungu, belongs in State prison. VOTE HIM OUT!!
UPND is only supported by the UPND danderheads and sycophants like the author who is into group think mentality and academic in his warped mind…. Supreme leader HH of the UPND is not popular in the other 7 provinces of Zambia at grassroot and how do you expect him to win the National elections… Most educated people in Zambia are educated danderheads in terms of politics….
Rubbish of refuse and cow dang from Siswaswa. What a rubbish article of falsehood. I guess now UPND is feeling the fire heat …they will not rig the way they did through fake register which MMD was using to rig elections. Where on earth can you have numbers in a small village more than in urban areas. Siswaswa we know how your UPND has been ringing elections…this time you are not able sir.
Beautifully written and full of truth. I pray to God that enough Zambians understand the truth before these next elections and evict Patriotic Front from their shameful rule.
@Kaizar Zulu – “Tribally charged monkey”? You are a disgrace. Who talks about their fellow Zambians like this?
only hope for Zambia now is New Hope MMD. Everyone else is finished. Lungu is totally corrupt and has no future in Zambia
only hope for Zambia now is New Hope MMD. Everyone else is finished. Lungu is totally corrupt and has no future in Zambia. Mr Lingu, how did your mentoring sessions with Mugabe go?
Mr. Sishuwa, majority vote is 50% +1 vote. In 2016 Lungu obtained 50.4% the 0.4% represents hundreds of thousands of votes above 1 vote. We know that simple arithmetic is a nightmare to some. Please note that in one American presidential election the electoral system had to resort to manually counting the votes until they found an extra vote for someoneto be declared winner. Maybe Mr. Sishuwa you were still in nappies when this happened. Your fear Mr. Sishuwa, about the so call electoral voters register is that your colleagues from Dundumwezi who may not be there today have no chance of cast a vote for your colleague Mr Hichilema. You are not talking about the massive voter rigging in Southern province, Surprising. It is perfectly ok for presidential candidates to form a coalition to form…
… It is perfectly ok for presidential candidates to form a coalition to form Govt.It is done the world over wherever this provision exists. What is wrong with that with Lungu seeking a coalition Govt in the unlikely event that he does not get an out right 50 %+ 1 vote?. After all re-runs are expensive. Mr Sishuwa your article is not only dangerously biased but full of baseless fear. Lungu is not perpetuating his stay he has a legal right to stand as candidate for the second term like you and me. The sworn in twice close in the constitution is only valid when you serve a full term as defined in the Republican constitution
Why is this a race between Lungi and Hichilima?
Mt view is both will are in for a shock. Chinese hold the trunk card.
This is the most UPND biased piece of writing from an academician. Sometimes I wonder how someone with history major is qualified to write on political science.
When Losers are sensing defeat they create nonsensical excuses like these just to fan confusion. The amendment you’re talking about does not exist in the proposed constitutional amendments. Go back to history and find what has been happening to voters register in the past. Which voters register has been used in perpetuity? Tribal brain contamination is what is going to cause your defeat and not rigging.
We want election observers who witnessed the Malawi elections not brown envelop seekers.
UPND have been caught in their own game. It is only in Southern Province where voters of more than 120 years age still vote. These are ghost voters that creat 80% voter turn out there.
The new register is necessary to get rid of these ghost voters.
The issue of coalition government may benefit any candidate not just the PF’s. It would be a better option to having a run-off, since it would help us save money, time and unnecessary fights amongst our cadets.
Sishuwa is a UPND cader whose writing is always predictable. No one should take him seriously.
UPND have been caught in their own game. It is only in Southern Province where voters of more than 120 years age still vote. These are ghost voters that creat 80% voter turn out there.
The new register is necessary to get rid of these ghost voters.
The issue of coalition government may benefit any candidate not just the PF’s. It would be a better option to having a run-off, since it would help us save money, time and unnecessary fights amongst our cadets.
Sishuwa is a UPND cader whose writing is always predictable. No one should take him seriously. He is …
Sishuwa’s writing is very prophetic. This is the reality on the ground. Unless ECZ is stopped from manipulating the Voters Roll, Bill 10 is defeated, 2021 Elections Results are secured Sishuwa’s predictions will materialise in 2021. The writing is on the wall.
You see “truth” where you want. I see lamentations of a well oiled praise singer. You have your vote… I have mine. Come 2021, we all heard to the “rigged” elections. I guess some will learn how much razor blades cost.
Don’t force yourself on us. We don’t want to vote for you, period. You have failed us. You must be ashamed of yourself. When you came to power, dollar was K7, now its K21, three times worse! And you’re telling us you want to continue? Awe, tefyo iya! Your next destination now is jail. Once Zambians change their minds, that’s it. No matter what manipulations you try, you are a gonna. If you doubt ask KK, Chiluba and RB.
Thank you to Dr Sishuwa. Your brains tick, and you’re a star!
Cry babies, just like Trump and his mad followers.
Sishuwa,you’ve really lost it bro.you ought to be above tribalism.HH is not presidential material.PF isn’t the best government,but they are the best option right now.It’s foolishness to think PF can loose elections 2021.Let’s start looking at 2026 presidential candidate.apa ni ECL kwati.
How come colonial United Federal Party (UFP) lost the elections to UNIP and ANC? The democracy is about winning but is also about losing elections.
Ballot-box stuffing is imaginary because election observers check and verify ballot boxes carefully before voters start to cast their votes.
Electoral bribery is also imagination because it takes two to accept a bribe. I hope that you are not gong to be bribed into voting for ECL or HH? Who is bribed? This is sheer imagination.
Violence against political opponents is largely amplified in order to create a scapegoat for losing elections. Those who live in glass houses must not throw stones.
Emasculation of the independent media is largely imagination because breaking the law automatically triggers legal processes that may result in closure,…
Try Nigeria style. In Nigeria, two political parties only are allowed by law. You choose the party you want to vote for between two political parties. Here in Zambia, the democratic space is wide enough to accommodate any political party. However, the losers must also accept the winners. It is chicanery to create confusion by rejecting election outcomes. In Kenya, the sma political party is til in power. In Malawi, the same old political ideology going back to Ngwazi Kamuzu Banda is back.