The ruling Patriotic Front (PF) need the vote from Luapula and Northern Province to neutralize the UPND vote in Southern Province. For many years, Luapula and Northern Province have been the main determinant of presidential elections in Zambia. Will it be the same with the 2021 general election?
If the opposition UPND leader Hakainde Hichilema continues educating the voters like the way he is doing now, Southern Province may determine the next president in 2021.
Hakainde Hichilema draws very large crowds in Southern Province whenever he conducts rallies, but it has never helped him win an election.
The record shows that the province is one of the provinces with the lowest rate of voter turnout in the country.
In 2016 general elections, Hakainde Hichilema lost by about 13, 000 votes to President Edgar Lungu. Had every eligible voter vote in Southern Province in that election, that would have been cut into half.
This time around Hichilema has a different approach. He has realized that it is not the number of people who attend rallies that matters but the number of people who turnout on the election day.
He spends more time educating people on the importance of their vote. He encourages supporters to register to vote. People seem to resonate well with his message.
For example, in Monze, Southern province, it is reported that people are registering to vote in numbers and the process is going very well.
Quoted from Lusaka Times, “Speaking when he featured on a Live call-in Radio Program on Chikuni Community Radio, Mr. Samakong’a who is the District Registration Officer said the district (Monze) was doing exceptionally well with the registration process since it commenced.”
Meanwhile, it has been reported that the Electoral Commission of Zambia (ECZ) may not reach the 9 million voter registration target.
The general public is calling for the extension of the voter registration period but ECZ keeps ignoring it. If bothered with being accused of favoritism, it would be wise for ECZ to listen to people now than later when the Patriotic Front (PF) gets involved.
The PF may start calling for registration period extension soon due to the reported slow voter registration process in Luapula and Northern province. It will be very difficult for ECZ to ignore the call if it will come from the President.
PF need a lot of votes from both provinces to neutralize the UPND vote in Southern Province.
Although the UPND has lost several bye elections in both provinces previously, it has managed to improve popularity in both regions. It can now manage to win wards in these provinces. For example, Ilambo Ward in Lupososhi Constituency in Luwingu District in Northern Province is under UPND.
That is enough to eat away the remaining half of 13,000 votes UPND lost in the 2016 general election. A reason the PF must do something. It is a matter of time. They will start demanding to extend the period. They will and it will leave the ECZ in a dilemma. Listen to the PF call or ignore like the general public is being ignored.
Luapula, muchinga and northern provinces I believe things are cheap. May be they are not affected because of ifinkubala and fish
Get the facts before writing, the difference was not 13,000 as you put it Edgar Lungu (PF) got 1,860,877
Hichilema Hakainde (UPND) got 1,760,347 me I see the difference of 100,530 votes
Moffat Sashi the issue here do you think that will be the same?
Moffat Sashi they have the facts…..13000 votes made it impossible to go for a rerun……. 13000 made it 50+1…. knowledge batata
Oliver Litiya, I have no doubt you have made it easy for people like Moffat Sashi understand what 2016 election analysts are saying.
Tell pipo to go at Civic center and show ground.when u r there by 06 hrz it will take u 15 minutes.
This is how dull UPND analysts are. Lungu had 1,870,877 and Hichilema had 1,760,347 in 2016. What is the difference? 13,000? Kkkkkkkkk
Comforting yourselves won’t win you 2021, donkeys, reality will. While you think upnd is becoming more popular in bembaland, how about the PF invasion in western province-how will that affect your outcome?? Upnd needs serious advisors.
Hahaha its that time again when every Jim and Jack becomes a political analyst. I laugh when I read some of these articles written by opposition cadres without any political credentials. This one who wrote this is a diasporan upnd cadre. You can tell by his lack of knowledge that he has been away from Zambia for too long. I have won elections and I can tell you that if you think you can win election with only southern provinces vote then you are even more f00lish than I thought. Stop smoking goat faeces.
Don’t know the writer of this article but the analysis is hugely flawed. The difference was not 13 000, it was about 100 000. Voter turnout in SP was highest in terms of percentages, around 80% while NP and Muchinga had 55% . Ba Under 5 supporters be serious
Heineken beer on Zambian voters cards!!!
Is it Heineken funding ECZ?
Ma up and down analyst… Or is it united people for national distraction… 50+1 means 50% plus 1 vote …. Not 51% olivia wants to suggest.
I hope HH and his senior wigs in the party don’t get swayed by this flawed analysis.The upcoming elections cannot be determined by any rural province.It is Lusaka and the CB where the big numbers are which will sway the outcome.HH came close to victory in 2016 because he increased his numbers in Lusaka and CB,this time he is likely to overtake PF in these provinces and prompt home to victory! However,he should also work on increasing numbers in Northern and Eastern parts of Zambia,to have comfortable victory!!
KZ you are a stupid man every time you talk rubbish are you sure you are a father.
A very factually wrong article…
Why should Zambia continue to be a country where tribe is a factor on who becomes president instead of character? It’s not the tribe that fits into the office of president but the individual. Where’s the much hyped Christian nation here? No wonder I’m no longer a Christian. If all religion was truly based on God’s ways, the world would not be such a mess. Religions hv lost their ways because they are all a human invention. I know exactly whn divisions based on tribe come to threaten the existence of a nation.
Why are people so dull….100000 was the difference but 13000 was what avoided a runoff…is this rocket science SURE….