By Father Alex Muyebe, S.J., JCTR Executive Director
A few days before the year 2020 comes to an end, it is an opportune time to look back at the last few months, reflect and look ahead to 2021. The year 2019 closed with a focus on two policy pronouncements; the increased fuel pump price and an upward adjustment of electricity tariffs. Stakeholders from all corners of the country echoed concerns on the detrimental trickledown effect that these two policy pronouncements would have on the economy in the year 2020. The two policy pronouncements resulted in increased prices for both goods and services and particularly saw the cost of living as measured by the JCTR rise from K6,600 in December 2019 to K7,410 in January 2020.
The year 2020 on the other hand closes with some key highlights; the enactment of the Planning and Budgeting Bill, the launch of the 2020-2023 Economic Recovery Programme, a favourable copper price of US$7,964 and a bumper harvest of over 3.4 million tonnes of maize in the 2019/20 farming season. For one, the enactment of the Planning and Budgeting Bill provides for an integrated national planning and budgeting process and gives opportunity to capture citizens’ aspirations and needs in national budgets and to attain people-centred development.
The nation however, closes the year with a negative growth rate, double digit inflation and a depreciating currency (opened the year at ZMW14.6 and closes at ZMW21 to US$1) that continue to erode citizens incomes, rising public debt, a US$42.5 million default on its Eurobond, high poverty rates and compounded supply and employment challenges due to COVID-19. Admittedly, a fiscally constrained space limited government’s ability to respond to the needs of the most vulnerable in society, most of whom cannot afford basic necessities.
The cost of living for Lusaka as measured by the JCTR Basic Needs and Nutrition Basket stands at K7, 126.62 as at November 2030 a K635 increase compared to the November 2019 basket. A high cost of living threatens the wellbeing of household’s right to good health and life as their basic requirements are unattainable given the prevailing economic situation. Thus, the country’s dream of attaining prosperous middle income status by 2030 seems bleaker with each passing year. According to Zambia’s Vision 2030, the last decade of the plan should have seen 10% economic growth between 2021 and 2030, inflation of 5%, a national poverty headcount of 20% and reduced income inequalities.
JCTR has in 2020 endeavoured to bring to light key socio-economic issues that affect the dignity of the person, and facilitated dialogue between rights holders and duty bearers in all its work. JCTR is alive to the fact that people should be the end and the means in every development undertaking. The Centre continues to call on the leaders of this nation to have the wellbeing of every Zambian at the core of every development agenda. Particular focus on the poor and vulnerable cannot be overemphasised as their lives are highly compromised in a challenging macroeconomic context.
As we move into 2021, the Centre wishes to call on Government to implement the many plans that we have set out as a nation. The Economic Recovery Programme was preceded by the Economic Growth and Stabilisation Plan whose aspirations have not seen the light of day. The Medium Term Debt Strategy-2017 to 2019 also outlined excellent debt management plans that should have seen sustainability in the debt facet. While the 2021 Budget has planned to register some improvements in the nation’s macroeconomic indicators and considerably increase allocations to a number of social sector budget lines, the 2020 budget macroeconomic indicators and expenditure outturns particularly for the social sector remain way below projected figures. Evidently, the need for Government to effect economic growth centred and pro-poor policies with a focus on climate smart agriculture, energy supply, private sector led growth and commitment to effective debt management in 2021 is paramount.
As we close 2020 and look ahead to 2021, JCTR calls on all Zambians and all state and non-state institutions to ensure peaceful and fair elections in 2021. Though threatened and shrinking, democracy and constitutionalism remain critical pillars of development, and we all must work tirelessly to safeguard these for the betterment of the lives of all the Zambians.
For Edgar Lungu merely asserting something in some formal statement is seen as an achievement on its own. Execution of plans requires discipline and political will.