Friday, March 29, 2024

Must the UPND win more by-Elections than the PF in order to win Zambia’s presidency?

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By Venus N Msyani, Concerned citizen

Between the last general election to date, several parliamentary and council by-elections have been held in Zambia. The PF has won almost all and as a result some people, specifically PF supporters have started celebrating.

Based on the by-elections victory, PF supporters seem to have concluded that the opposition United Party for National Development (UPND) can’t win the upcoming August 2021 general election.

Thinking deep, it is not the right conclusion and if not well explained, these are the people who would grow tooth and nail to protest the outcome of the election if it went in the opposite direction.

And the absurd part of it is that the very PF had not won more by-elections in order to grab the presidency from the Movement for Multi-Party Democracy (MMD). Instead of being the last ones to try to use by-elections as a litmus test for general elections in Zambia, they are at the forefront.

By-elections cannot be used to predict the winner of the upcoming general election because no government in Zambia has ascended into power because it had won more by-elections than the previous one.

PF grabbed power from MMD because of a better campaign strategy. It was the same with the MMD. They grabbed power from UNIP because they had a better campaign strategy.

One can clearly see that in the history of general elections in Zambia, campaign strategy is the only proven way of determining who wins the presidency in the country. Not by-election victories.

Reacting to the PF win in Vubwi Council Chairperson by-election in Eastern Province and Miputu Ward Councilor in Masaiti District in Copperbelt province, a stout-hearted PF cadr asked me, “If they keep losing by-elections, how are they going to win the general elections?”

The United Party for National Development (UPND) or any other contesting party can win the upcoming August 2021 general election. What is needed is to come up with a better campaign strategy and to make sure that the PF stop playing dirty politics.

It is a mistake to forget that losing an election provokes hard work and so is to believe that losing by-elections has left the opposition UPND weaker than before.

Meanwhile, there has been continued speculation that the ruling Patriotic Front (PF) is buying members of the opposition. Former UPND vice president Geoffrey Bwalya Mwamba’s resignation was greeted by the same speculation.

The speculation attracts attention because the majority of the by-elections, mostly at the council level, have been as a result of the opposition UPND councilors resigning to join the Patriotic Front party (PF).

Whether true or not, the conclusion is that the opposition doesn’t need to win more by-Elections than the PF in order to win Zambia’s presidency but clean politics.

19 COMMENTS

  1. At this time anybody but PF should be favoured to win elections because PF has absolutely failed in wholesome economics. C’mon MMD ,UPND and all others to form a coalition to save Zambia.

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  2. To everything we do in life there are what is called ”INDICATORS”, signs that tells you what will happen next, so to say by election is not a guaranty to win an election is a blue lie. Why do tell people lies you people just say the truth because the same writing this article you are the same to come and complain that votes have been stolen .Mind you PF as already a strategy and suffice to say UPND as non, what are they waiting for, no proper manifesto ,agenda come on you guys.

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  3. Was the PF losing by-elections in its strongholds before winning in 2011?? You see, the environment and conditions in 2011 and now are different. The MMD had been in power for 20 years and people wanted a new direction. Today, it is the perception that we need change that is at play. This is mainly due to the negative and misinformation being generated by the opposition. Sata and PF offered alternatives and solutions while today’s opposition, mainly upnd, are failing to offer the same. And don’t forget, the 2016 voting pattern is like no other we’ve seen since Independence and remains intact until today!!

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  4. For a political Party to win a national election it must welcome and accommodate all kinds of people. That isn’t the case in the UPND. Most senior members of the UPND aren’t receptive to newcomers especially if they feel their positions threatened. Many Tongas think that UPND is their heritage, they’ll only tolerate non Tongas if they see that they’ll assist them to win elections and not to play leadership roles. The UPND is very corrupt and I know that Munji Habeenzu wasn’t adopted because he refused to pay K40,000 that was demanded by Chikankata officials. So what causes UPND to lose elections is because they’re a greedy tribal party. Those in the inner circle know except useful idyoots like Nalumango, Mubita Nawa, Anthony Bwalya, etc

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  5. Its very difficult for the opposition to win bye elections because the ruling party uses government resources to campaign. Moreover its very easy to win a bye election at ward level as it is an isolated event and easy to put logistics in place. Councilors sitting allowances are very small amounts and this makes it easy for the PF to induce them into resigning. Prior to 2011 general elections MMD swept all bye elections. When it comes to a general election, parliament is dissolved and all the members are scattered throughout the country campaigning, there is no concentration by members on a certain ward or constituency. Its each man for himself and God for all of us. Using a bye election victory as a yard stick to determine if the PF will win on 12/08/21 is wrong. The next govt should…

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  6. People are yearning 4 a change of Govt come August 12,2021. People are feeling the high cost of living and general deterioration in their welfare. Vubwi has shown what is coming. PF is going to be shocked when most People will vote 4 HH even in perceived PF Strongholds. Macmillan’s wind of change is blowing in all Provinces in Zambia. People are Hungry, Angry and tired of ECL and PF Corruption and misrule and are clamouring for change. E CL ‘s imposition of an illegal Third Term will further infuriate Voters and produce unintended outcome. The writing is on the wall.

  7. If the playing field is levelled, a ruling party loses elections if there is massive voter turnout. If people want no change they do not turn out to vote. On average if voter turn out is less than 40% you can be rest assured that the ruling party wins. If it is more than 60%, they are out. In Uganda, the playing field was not level. The elections were rigged at 4 points. First, the opposition were not allowed to campaign due to Covid. Second, there was heavy police and military presence to intimidate voters and thirdly, outside voting was meant to scare people to believe that their vote was not secret. People are paid if they can take a photo of their ballot to prove that they voted for the ruling party. I can see the same happening in Zambia.

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  8. Very few people bother participating in By-Elections becoz they don’t mean much to People. People look to General Elections at MP and Presidential levels becoz they can change laws,allocate resources and change National Policies. At a National Level we need a President with vision and integrity to manage the Political and Economic Affairs of the Country. A President for Zambia should be a President for all Zambians who should improve the lives of all Zambians. ECL and PF over the last 10 years have shown that they have no capacity and competencies to manage a properly functioning economy. They have failed miserably. Time to change. Our only hope is HH and UPND. All right thinking Zambians should vote 4 HH aka Bally on August 12, 2021 if they want change.

  9. Don’t be silly. Upnd will never rule. Their members know this. That is why they are frustrated and angry like upnd diasporans.

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  10. It’s not true that MMD won most elections prior to 2011 . What vividly recall is Sata MPs crossing over to Levy’s MMD where they were promised Ministerial appointments but would end up losing the induced elections. Any by-election that came up particularly on CB, Northern and Luapula was won by the opposition PF. 2011 came and it showed.

  11. Its very easy to notice from the way the story is written that the author is pro-Upnd. I don’t know what makes people in Upnd or members of Upnd think they can win the national elections this year. They are far from it because of various reasons: 1. They have a very wrong leader in the name of Sammy Hakainde Hichilema, why is a wrong person, his guaranteed popularity is only in Southern province, he tribally ascended to power, he’s a very selfish, greed and corrupt, his wardrobe is full of privatization skeletons, he lacks charisma, he’s self-centered and above all a typical dictator. 2. Upnd is a tribally inclined party, specifically drawing its support from Southern province, so how do they hope Hakainde to win and control the Northern tribes who occupy half of this country? 3…

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  12. Those by-election are bought , buy one get one free……….

    The ruling party usually has the cash and police force to buy and grab those elections……

    People know by-election don’t feed them..

    It is the results of the presidential elections that feed people and provide jobs

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  13. @E. Mukuka we know sensationalism is part of your DNA, but the facts
    Popular vote 1,860,877 1,760,347
    Percentage 50.35% 47.63%
    if these figures are true or not true they still do not depict a party whose popularity is only in one province, your mindset looks at the name of someone first thats why you you are preoccupied with that line of thought. by the way where do you get those defectors from UPND in other provinces especially your perceived “strongholds” if they are only popular in the south?

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  14. AT PRESENT IN ZAMBIA WE DO NOT HAVE A PARTY TO REMOVE PF.OPPOSITION PARTIES ARE BUSY LOOKING FOR A WAY TO REMOVE EDGAR LUNGU FROM STATE HOUSE NOT TELLING US WHAT THEY WILL DO DIFFERENT.UPND HAS NO CAPACITY TO RULE ZAMBIA FOR NOW,SOUTHERN PROVINCE WHERE THEY RUN ALL COUNCILS NOTHING TO SHOW THAT THERE BETTER THAN PF.AFTER 2021 ELECTIONS IT’S WHEN ANOTHER PARTY WILL TAKE OUT FP FROM POWER.

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  15. Dear writer, please just come out in the public as your article is short of saying you support UPND. Man, PF was winning bye elections to the extent that MMD started fearing causing bye elections. This was clear indication that PF was a force to contend with. But for UPND to be losing most of the bye elections even in its perceived stronghold, man,, is this not clear signal that UPND is standing on shifting ground? I leave it to the impartial audience to judge.

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  16. Aristotle if you are looking at 2016 presidential results then you in for a huge disappointment this year, because your Sammy Hichilema to reach 1,760,347 there was too much systematic rigging in Upnd stronghold, Southern province. Under age children where being transported to centres yo get NRCs , and some of them got more than one NRC, and of course more than one voter’s card, and hence voted more than once! This simply means Hichilema reached figure in 2016 because he had a lot fraudulent votes from Southern province, hence Dundumwezi, Hichilema 44,000 and Edgar Lungu 230. Fortunately that won’t happen this year because of the new perfected voters register. So Hichilema and Upnd are in for rude and big loss! Even if its a strategy surely Hichilema things he can rule the country by…

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