Political Science Association of Zambia in collaboration Faraline of the United Kingdom and Media Theory of USA have released an Opinion Poll that shows that non of the candidate getting an outright 50 + 1 % of the vote but strongly puts President Edgar Chagwa Lungu in the driving seating with a solid 40.4%. while his opposition rival Mr. Hakainde Hichilema is trailing standing at 30.33% of the poll.
The surprise performer was Socialist Part President Fred M’membe who was leading the rest of the opposition with 2.61, with Movement for Multi-Party Democracy President Nevers Mumba coming in at 2.13%, and Former Foreign Affairs Minister Harry Kalaba coming in at n 1.93%.
There was a whopping 15% that either declined to respond or remain undecided for various reasons, the target group that both major parties are likely to target as the country prepare to switch to campaign mode after the end of the National Mourning this week.
The Poll, which attracted experts such as Prof. Richard Elson from the United Kingdom, and Dr. Masauso Chirwa of Zambia, was conducted in five provinces comprising Copperbelt, Luapula, Eastern, Southern, and Western provinces.
The public polling was done to ascertain which candidate will likely win elections and was conducted by the research team comprising Dr. Masauso Chirwa, Principal Investigator Mr. Joe Nabwa and Mr. Aaron Siwale.
61.1% of respondents, who said they would vote for Mr. Edgar Lungu, gave reasons such as preservation of jobs, massive infrastructure development such as housing units for service personnel, roads hospitals, and schools. They also said President Lungu as a leader of the country, had stabilized the country despite the difficult circumstances such as droughts and the Covid-19 pandemic. Households in rural areas were pleased with government provision of social services such as Farm Input Support Programme(FISP) and Social-Cash Transfer. President Lungu’s supporters were also happy with the government revival of industries such as Kawambwa Tea Factory and Mununga Banana Factory and the holding of provincial expos and happy also happy with President Lungu’s promotion of family values.
Those that supported Mr. Hichilema stated that he was a visionary leader with a clear development plan. They also stated that Hichilema had promised to transform the country.
President Edgar Chagwa Lungu scored highest in Eastern, Luapula and Copperbelt while Mr. Hichilema scored highly in Southern and Western Provinces.
UNIP tiye iwe…we have work to do to galvanise the youth to take up the mantle and eliminate the dead mukula logs once and for all.
What was sample size used? I personally don’t think this opinion poll will get any close to the actual election results.
Fuseke. The real poll is in below article
LUNGU LEADS IN OPINION POLL: HE’S LIKELY TO WIN BY OVER 44%, AND HH BY OVER 30%
Lusaka ~ Sun, 4 Jul 2021
By Brightwell Chabusha
Political Science Association of Zambia in collaboration Faraline of the United Kingdom and Media Theory of USA have released an Opinion Poll which shows that President Edgar Chagwa Lungu will likely win the 2021 General Elections by over 44% followed by UPND’s Hakainde Hichilema with around 30% of the vote.
The Poll attracted experts such as Prof. Richard Elson from the United Kingdom, and Dr. Masauso Chirwa of Zambia.
The Opinion Poll was conducted in five provinces comprising Copperbelt, Luapula, Eastern, Southern, and Western provinces.
The public polling was done to ascertain which candidate will…
We said it, just that Upnd doesn’t want to hear anything factual. Upnd is losing general elections. One of the reasons is that Mr hh is using NAZISTS propaganda.e.g antagonizing with state operations, tribal politics, bitter and hatred that has resulted into political violence. Upnd has no manifesto apart from pointing to pf mistakes. They cannot win elections like that. This is a great sample!!
worry worry not lets see what 12th August will give us and good that we killed bill 10 so
we shall have a rerun for the top two HH and Lungu
Opinion polls have always been around, but they have not always been correct. Only God’s opinion would really matter, anything else is tantamount to mere speculation. That said, i am also of the opinion that the August Elections might go for a rerun…
THESE POLLS ARE STAGED MANAGED
INDEPENDENT POLLS SHOW UPND 4.35 % AHEAD AND THAT HAS BEEN STATIC FOR A WHILE NOW
OBVIOUSLY NO CANDIDATE WILL GET AN OUT RIGHT VICTORY IN ALL PROVINCES
TELL US SOMETHING NEW !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
We know why the 15% did not respond to the poll. With that in mind , it’s very clear where this ship is sailing.
In rural areas people are not hard to please in Zambia …just provide inputs. a road by whatever means and this social transfer which PF is using to bribe them you have got their vote.
Can you please tell us how the data collection method utilized? The samples look small for a General election is that 60 individuals …come on get serious don’t eat donor funding and conduct polls from a comfortable office in UNZA whilst you send students to Shopping Malls.
Once in a while you read something you know well but sounds like fiction. Stabilised the Country, what? Simple design would have been , has your life gotten better in the last five years? What your voting intentions? How do you usually vote?
This result is unrecognisable because the reasons given for voting PF are all wrong,. How many respondents are associated with Mopani and KCM? So in short this a doctored survey and meaningless!
I have seen many polls in both Europe and the USA, they always give details about the sample……size, age distribution….when was the polls conducted, and any conditions that existed at the time of the poll. etc. All this is missing, which makes me doubt this poll. I would have doubted, even if HH would have been shown leading. So for me who purported to be leading the polls is not a factor at this point. I am more concerned with the methodology.
Therefore, I don’t trust these polls. Anyways, this must be a wake-up call for HH. It appears the message is NOT getting through to the VOTERS. I can’t believe it, that at this point in the campaign, they know HH as a visionary, without any details on how he will better their lives. This is very concerning !!! And it goes with my comment…
And it goes with my comment 2-3 weeks ago, where I expressed my concerns about these roadshows, I said they were useless. Driving through and waving and playing music, is not convincing people why they should vote for UPND. The Allinace should wake-up, this is litmus test.
We want change
Buck teeth lungu WELCONE BACK
WE NEED YOU HERE
Harry Kalaba will get more votes than HH and Edgar Lungu in Luapula
State house comes up with opinion poll joke
I LIKE THIS KIKIKI
Upnd does not want to hear anything factual. All they want to hear is that they are winning elections.If the poll had suggested that HH was going to win, they would not be asking about the sample size and method of data collection. It is an issue now because Mr. Know it all is after all, not projected to win. Instead of reading the poll and seeing reasons that correspondents are giving so that they restrategise their campaign, they attack the poll itself. Sad
@ 14 independent
I think UPND supporters like burrying their heads in the sand and assume things will just happen in their favour. How does Harry Kalaba get more votes in Luapula when he has no structures on the ground ? You see there is simply no wind of change and ECL will win in the first round unless something drastic happens between now and August 12 to PF’s disadvantage. You must appreciate that PF has an inbuilt support in their rural strongholds which is intact and going by the new voters roll. They have also penetrated the opposition strongholds especially in Western and North Western provinces. The voter apathy recorded in the previous elections in Northern won’t be there this year.
No opinion poll ever works in Africa because people are always scared to tell the truth about who they are going to vote for in case the ones asking are from state agencies. Ask any civil servant in any opinion poll today and he will 100% say he is voting for the incumbent just out of fear of not losing his job. The real result will come out on 12th August when people vote anonymously and without fear.
Bring Rasmussen or Quinipiac University pollsters of the USA and we will get an accurate picture of who is winning this thing.
Good point @Razor – and there is a lot of missing information on the size/cohort and other factors behind the ‘Poll’.
The real poll will come out after August 12. Between Mr HH and President Lungu one is likely to win it outright. Polls should consider elements that have a national distribution. Even in those provinces mentioned just how many houses have been built for service men combined?
PF should be worried of the 15% , actually it’s more than 15% .
Like it or not. GREENS are carrying the day once again.
The poll was done in five provinces: Copperbelt, Luapula, Eastern, Southern, and Western provinces….how do you compare 3 PF “strongholds” with 2 UPND strongholds? And why was Lusaka left out? Clearly PF is packing!!
This is garbage. The population was supposed to be Zambians who are eligible to vote. Normally the sample was to come from all the provinces, not five provinces. An ideal sample is about 1000 Zambians. As such, this survey is not representative. This is very simplistic.
I WILL REPEAT UPND ARE AHEAD BY 4.35 PERCENTAGE POINTS
They are trying to spruce the image of ECL and PF. This is too late. Trying to put lipstick on a frog to win a human being Beauty Contest. That wont happen. Tribalistic and Corrupt ECL is damaged goods. The writing is on the wall.
David @18 PF will only win if they manage to rig and every Zambian knows this including the PF themselves. PF can never win a free and fair election. Fellow voters it is very important to vote in next month’s election BUT MORE IMPORTANT TO PROTECT YOUR VOTE. Don’t go to slumber
# 29@ Red you’re so sure that PF rigs elections tell me how they do it? I thought elections in Zambia are one of the most transparent and difficult to rig as long as you’ve polling agents in all the polling stations. You see my take is very simple l doubt whether UPND are as popular as PF was in 2006 and 2008 yet they lost overall vote to MMD. As things stand l’ m trying to figure out where the wind of change is. Its too quiet to be qualify for a wind of change in my view. However anything is possible under the sun.
# 29@ Red you’re so sure that PF rigs elections tell me how they do it? I thought elections in Zambia are one of the most transparent and difficult to rig as long as you’ve polling agents in all the polling stations. You see my take is very simple l doubt whether UPND are as popular as PF was in 2006 and 2008 yet they lost overall vote to MMD. As things stand l’ m trying to figure out where the wind of change is. Its too quiet to qualify for a wind of change in my view. However anything is possible under the sun.
Comment: Zambia is for patriotic Zambians I must encourage more zambian to vote for a real man of the people ECL. The opinion poll is a true reflection of what will happen on 12082021. But let us remember on regional voting that it is likely to repeat in some provinces. Which will be very sad indeed. People are likely not to vote basing on the performance the govt has done as indicated by the opinion polls.
The opinion polls can be credible, but I still believe the swing provinces are Kabwe and Lusaka
Don’t believe polls look at Britexit and Trump in 2016 no one thought it would happen, but it did.
Please PF & UPND make sure you have your polling agents in every polling station. We don’t want rigging noise after either loses elections. Zambia has one of the most transparent and effective voting systems in the world.
It is important to appreciate scientifically justified opinion palls that are conducted by professional personalities and institution.
This is who Bishop Mwamba is. He is a liberal priest, who is here to promote the called ‘LGTB’ rights. Thats end of UNIP!