Ruling parties generally win most by elections, PF did the same before August 2021

By Dr. Chris Zumani Zimba

I have attached soft guitar music video done by some Nigerian young lady in the name of One Zambia, One Nation

1. Congratulations to the UPND candidates who won in these bye elections are in order regardless how they won;

2. Congratulations also to PF, Socialist Party and other political parties that availed themselves in these local elections;

3. For losing opposition parties, you have also gained either bye introducing your party, consolidating party mobilization or just by learning more on how to tackle campaigns;

4. For Socialist Party and PF, it’s clear that you must think of possible political marriage or coalition in future if you are to battle and conquer UPND without serious headaches and challenges;

5. In 2021 when PF won the bye election in Luangwa district, it was a mark of rare achievement for an opposition in many aspects and set ups;

6. To start with, bye elections are a political popularity test for known local candidates and not political parties or party presidents;

7. In bye elections, voters choose between and among their own local relatives, friends and neighbors competing on different party tickets;

8. Generally, this gives the ruling party most advantages in terms of financial, political, economic, logistical, material and incumbency strength than anyone;

9. The probability of losing for a party in power are 2 out of 20 while chances of winning stands at above 75% regardless of terrain and place;

10. With a bye election looming, a ruling party can do a lot of magic and miracles ahead of time for the people;

11. It can reduce electricity, distribute charity donations to all orphans, employ youth at a local plant, declare a village as a district, start building a chief’s palace, local clinic or ZCCM can just open a new mine, etc;

12. The opposition can mainly campaign by promising using verbal words to win local hearts and support with little or no serious financial and material backing;

13. In bye elections, elections have nothing or little to with national political and economic dynamics. It’s about local issues & choice of the local people competing on the ballot;

14. In Presidential and General Elections to the contrary, everything changes and it becomes a complete different story;

15. Between 2019 and before 2021 August, PF was winning with a big margin in almost all bye elections in UPND’s Western and North Western provinces. It was sure but false political conquest for PF;

16. Some even predicted that ECL will win by more than 40% in Western and North Western provinces against HH;

17. But some of us knew that we just needed to work harder coz the pre test of bye elections have little or nothing to with presidential candidates or elections;

18. In August 2021, HH won by more than 94% in North Western province while ECL only got about 5% total votes. It’s that’s where UPND murdered PF’s Jackson Kungo at a polling station, generally voted and counted a selection (not election) for themselves;

19. In like manner, the April 2023 outcome of these local elections have nothing to with possible national voter pattern or likelihood of HH’s likability or political popularity; and

20. The sitting president is on his own and will be judged by voters on his own ballot paper as a solo candidate against his peers at national level at the right time.

Dr Chris ZUMANI Zimba is a Political Scientist, Researcher, Lecturer & Consultant specialized in Comparative Global Governance and Democratic Theories. He holds a PhD, MA, BA and Cert in Political Science. Zimba was President Lungu’s Political Advisor from December 2019 to August 2021.