Is the Kawambwa Strategy President HH’s Only Route to His Second Term?

Kapya Kaoma

As poverty haunts the masses and President HH has become terribly unpopular, two recent social media clips speak to the nation’s growing electoral tensions as we approach 2026.

The first clip features a woman from Kawambwa who boldly accuses the United Party for National Development (UPND) of a vote-buying scheme. She states with alarming clarity, “Iyi strategy tumfwile Kawambwa, iyakweba ati bakupela K20 bakufimba napamenso. Elo bakupela natuumbi wasaiinina nalimo. Wabika nabubra. Elyo waya posamo. K20 tapali ifyo ili.”
(Translation: “The strategy we have heard from Kawambwa is this: they give you K20, and then you receive pre-marked ballots. You hide them in your bra and deposit them in the ballot box. What is K20?”)

She passionately decries the portrayal of Luapula’s residents as ineffective and backward, urging her compatriots to vote as a rebuttal to such perceptions.

Meanwhile, the second clip depicts women clad in elegant UPND attire, prominently featuring the image of President Hakainde Hichilema. When a man inquires about their political affiliation, they enthusiastically raise their fists and shout, “PF.” Their rationale unfolds as one woman responds, “We are only celebrating. Things were better in PF. We must eat their food, but we are PF.”

These contrasting snapshots illustrate the current climate in Zambian politics, where allegations of vote-buying and potential ballot manipulation raise public concern, along with the growing unpopularity of the UPND. Whether the Kawambwa strategy holds any truth or is merely a rumor, the first woman’s claims underline the rising tensions surrounding electoral integrity in Zambia. Many Zambians are beginning to question how certain regions achieve remarkably high voter turnout figures compared to their population density. This skepticism invites discussions about the so-called “Kawambwa strategy,” which suggests that individuals receive pre-marked ballots to deposit at polling stations.

In life, perceptions hold as much power as reality; political violence rarely arises from verified facts, but often from the public’s perception of potential misconduct. Such mistrust can lead to violence, and Zambians should be concerned about this trend. Allegations of pre-marked ballots can tarnish the legitimacy of the electoral process. While such claims may be dismissed in UPND strongholds, they can incite violence and unrest in opposition regions. The UPND government ought to restore confidence in our elections before 2026, as failing to do so will likely result in post-election violence.

Moreover, as political entities seek votes, individuals often resort to scapegoating to explain their failures, resulting in actions driven by misplaced egos. While the UPND may boast of “increasing” numbers in PF strongholds, the truth is that it is still in the minority—making its cadres vulnerable to this scapegoating. This cycle of blame creates an environment ripe for conflict, which can lead to many deaths.

This brings us to a persistent issue that has burdened Zambian ruling parties for decades: arrogance. Zambians are far from ignorant; they can support a beleaguered ruling party while simultaneously expressing contempt. This duplicity perpetuates a cycle of deception that has long defined Zambian politics. Those in power may secure by-election victories through bribes and police brutality, maintaining a heavy hand over the opposition. They may flout laws, expecting their rivals to comply without question. Zambians are not blind to this hypocrisy. They are likely to bide their time until the next general elections. Who in their right mind would risk their position by antagonizing the president’s supporters? Which civil servant would dare publicly insult the ruling party? The answer is none. Thus, they dress in UPND colors outwardly, while their true allegiance remains unspoken. As the 2026 elections approach, the UPND may find its support significantly diminishing in various regions of Zambia.

Ironically, it was the UPND that first popularized the concept of “watermelon politics”—green on the outside but red within. Now, one must ponder: Is the PF evolving into a passion fruit, exhibiting a red exterior yet green within? After all, the acronym for Passion Fruit can be PF. Will the UPND accept defeat or choose to steal the election by corrupting the ECZ? Only time will tell!