PF at the Crossroads: Can Makebi Zulu Defeat Lubinda in a Rushed Convention?

By Dr Lawrence Mwelwa

The sudden rush toward a Patriotic Front convention within a matter of days has raised more questions than answers. For a party that has spent months entangled in legal battles, leadership disputes, and competing claims of legitimacy, the idea that a decisive leadership election could be organized almost overnight appears less like institutional renewal and more like political brinkmanship. The deeper question now confronting the party is not simply whether a convention will take place, but whether the outcome will resolve the leadership crisis or deepen it.

At the centre of the unfolding drama stand two contrasting figures: Given Lubinda and Makebi Zulu. Lubinda represents experience within the party structures, a long-standing insider who understands the mechanics of internal politics and the mathematics of delegates. Makebi Zulu, by contrast, represents a rising figure whose visibility has grown rapidly within the broader public discourse but whose internal structural strength remains uncertain.

This is where the real political calculation begins.

Conventions are rarely decided by public popularity. They are decided by organization. Delegates do not emerge from social media enthusiasm or media commentary. They emerge from structures, lists, and networks that are often quietly assembled long before the public conversation begins.

And by most accounts, Lubinda has spent considerable time positioning himself precisely within that terrain. The arithmetic of delegates, the influence within provincial structures, and the loyalty networks built over years of internal party work all favour candidates who understand the machinery of party organization.

Observers have also noted another critical element in this contest: the control of administrative structures within the party. The role of the Secretary General is not merely ceremonial. It involves managing records, communication with structures, and in many cases the practical administration of the voters’ roll that determines who participates in internal elections.

In a tightly contested convention, those details matter enormously.

Lubinda’s long-standing relationships within the party secretariat and among administrative officials are widely believed to give him an advantage in navigating these internal mechanisms. Whether this advantage is decisive remains to be seen, but it certainly shapes the battlefield on which the contest will occur.

For Makebi Zulu, the challenge is therefore twofold. First, he must translate his growing public visibility into actual delegate support within a system that has historically rewarded long-standing internal networks. Second, he must do so in an environment where the rules, structures, and timelines appear to favour established insiders.

That is not an impossible task. Political history is filled with moments where insurgent candidates have disrupted internal hierarchies. But such victories require extraordinary organization, disciplined alliances, and the ability to mobilize delegates who are often under intense pressure from existing power centres.

The rushed nature of the convention therefore raises strategic questions for both camps.

If Lubinda wins, he will likely claim that the result reflects the will of the party structures and restores order after months of chaos. His supporters would argue that experience and organizational strength have prevailed over political experimentation.

But the more delicate question concerns what happens if Makebi Zulu loses.

Will he accept the outcome and work within a Lubinda-led Patriotic Front, or will he walk away from the process entirely?

That question matters because the PF is not merely deciding a leadership contest. It is deciding whether it can remain a unified political force ahead of the next national elections.

If a defeated Makebi were to disengage from the party or mobilize his supporters outside the PF framework, the consequences could be profound. The opposition landscape is already crowded with competing formations, and any additional fragmentation would further complicate efforts to build a coherent national alternative.

On the other hand, if Makebi accepts the result and integrates his support base within the party structure, the PF might emerge from the convention with renewed internal legitimacy.

Yet even that scenario is not guaranteed to resolve the deeper tensions.

Many within the party remain wary of processes they perceive as controlled or predetermined. In highly polarized environments, even legitimate outcomes can be rejected by factions that believe the playing field was uneven from the start.

That is why the credibility of the voters’ roll, the transparency of the delegate list, and the fairness of the voting procedures will be as important as the final vote count itself.

The convention therefore represents more than a leadership election. It is a test of whether the Patriotic Front can restore internal trust after a prolonged period of legal and political turbulence.

If the process is widely perceived as fair, the party may finally begin closing the chapter on its internal wars. But if the outcome is seen as the product of administrative control rather than genuine competition, the PF risks entering yet another cycle of dispute.

For now, speculation fills the political air. Supporters on both sides are confident of victory. Some believe Makebi’s rising national profile will translate into delegate momentum. Others insist that Lubinda’s deep structural networks make his victory almost inevitable.

In politics, however, certainty is a dangerous illusion.

Conventions have a way of producing outcomes that surprise both analysts and participants. Alliances shift, delegates reconsider, and last-minute negotiations often reshape what seemed predetermined only days earlier.

Four days may appear like a rushed timeline for such a consequential decision. But within the intense environment of party politics, four days can also become a battlefield where strategies are finalized, loyalties are tested, and the future direction of a political movement is decided.

For the Patriotic Front, the coming convention is therefore not merely about choosing a leader.

It is about determining whether the party can finally resolve its internal contradictions—or whether the drama that has defined its recent history will continue.

For now, Zambia watches.

And the only honest answer to the question everyone is asking is the simplest one.

Let us wait and see.