
By M Kapumpe:-
How do you win the Presidential election, an election you have already lost three times previously? That is the question that Michael Sata has been contemplating in anticipation of the 2011 election.
Initially, his plan was to enter into a coalition with the third largest party in the country, the UNDP. However, when the leader of the UNDP, HH realised that there wasn’t going to be an open selection for the coalition’s Presidential candidate and that the whole purpose of the coalition was to advance Michael Sata’s Presidential aspirations, that strategy failed.
Sata then began to look for an alternative tactic to help him win in 2011. He was becoming more desperate as the months passed, because it was becoming clearer and clearer that the incumbent President and Sata’s main opposition, Rupiah Banda, was enjoying the economic benefit of high copper prices and that Rupiah Banda had not squandered this boost, but had reinvested the money back into new roads, schools and hospitals.
Sata also faced the difficulty of raising money for his campaign (oops, am I not supposed to mention money for fear of a lawsuit?), the pro-business environment created by President Banda had made businessmen reluctant to support Michael Sata’s campaign. It is even rumoured that one businessman has left the country until after the election in order to avoid meeting the aspiring candidate.
Considering the potential of a very difficult election campaign in 2011, Sata began to look around for a strategy. He ended up taking a leaf out of two recent campaigns on the continent, the 2007 Kenyan campaign and the 2008 Zimbabwe campaign. This is a strategy that Michael Sata partially employed in 2008, but now he has decided to put all his hopes in its use.
The strategy was to begin early on to challenge the validity of the election process. Every ambassador or foreign dignitary that he met, he continually stressed his fear that the MMD were going to falsify the results. As Mr Sata is well known for shouting things louder than anyone else, his continued drumming of this issue had begun to bear fruit. His intention all along was to focus this strategy on the international crowd.
A cursory sample of the feelings of most the embassies around Lusaka today, it is clear they have begun to give credence to Mr Sata’s claims. An example of this concern is that of the US embassy, that although they are unable to give substantive reasons as to why they think the election process is susceptible to fraud, they went so far to request that one of the US democratisation institutes, the National Democratic Institute (NDI) conduct a full fledge election observation in the country.
Mr Sata also has chosen to challenge every conceivable procedure, both in the judicial courts and the court of public opinion, no matter how trivial or unwinnable. His intention was not to win these cases through the courts, but again to cast doubt on the integrity of the electoral process in the Zambia. This was also the purpose of cast doubt on the South African printers UPG, whom coincidently Mr Sata had no problem with in his last three election losses.
By building up this perception that the process is flawed, Mr Sata will be able to institute the next phase of his plan. There is an anomaly in the demographics and way the Zambian people vote that will allow him to no doubt take an early lead in the vote tally the night of the election. Mr Sata’s vote tends to be based in the urban centres of the country and those are the areas that tend to report their results first.
The MMD vote on the contrary tends to be more rurally based. Once Mr Sata’s early lead will begin to disappear, he will begin to cry foul in the media. He will bring his thugs onto the street to cause mayhem and having convinced the internationals that the election process is fraudulent he will demand mediation.
Like the elections in Kenya and Zimbabwe, he will hope to achieve “an African Solution to an African problem”, which means that a former African leader like Kofi Annan, who’s famous line we have quoted, will be brought in to set aside the true election results and force a deal on the Zambian people and bring Mr Sata into power.
There is only one way to defeat a strategy like Mr Sata’s, which is for the people of Zambia to come out in large numbers to give several definitive messages. First the message is that they and they alone will choose the future of their country at the ballot box and not careerist politicians that are interested in looking after their own and their friend’s interest and not the interest of the Zambian people.
And secondly, is to choose a candidate that believes in the democratic process, that recognises that their responsibility is to serve the interest of the Zambian people and not just themselves and those around them. If the Zambian people do that, they will not find themselves saddled with a president not of their choosing.
In the above clip Sata claimed that RB got 9000 votes from Vubwi, but official 2008 VUBWI Final Results show as follows: RB 3,925, HH 452, Sata 373 Miyanda 65