
Former MMD national secretary Katele Kalumba says the prediction by Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD) tipping President Banda to win the September 20 election confirms his analysis that President Banda will win the forthcoming elections.
Dr Kalumba said in an interview from Chiengi on yesterday that his forecast that President Banda will win the poll is based on a computer assisted political mapping, developed by Harvard University Professor Michael Reich.
“I do in principle agree with the poll projection that Centre for Policy Dialogue executive director Dr Neo Simutanyi has released. It reflects by and large to some extent my own political mapping I have been sharing with some of the MMD party leaders, which is also quite broad-based,” Dr Kalumba said
He said according to his political mapping, the most significant variable affecting the performance of all political parties is the economy. Dr Kalumba said the MMD under President Banda’s leadership has been consistent and steadfast in maintaining positive economic indicators.
“On account of that, the general sentiments in the market, particularly rural markets have been positive. People are satisfied that they have food and disposable income after selling their produce,” Dr Kalumba said.
He also said President Banda’s administration has been consistent in its policy messages and has not been seen ‘flip flopping’ like Mr Sata. “The inconsistencies in PF policy have been quite remarkable. The United Party for National Development has been hurt in public perception by its misplaced faith in the PF and it did not have time to improve public confidence,” Dr Kalumba said.
He also said the lower and middle-income voters in both the rural and urban areas have not been hoodwinked by emotionally-charged statements about quick-fixes on policy issues, because they have seen the tangible developments under the MMD.
“The lower and middle-income voters have seen the improvements in road, education and health infrastructure including mobile hospitals which the MMD has effectively defended,” Dr Kalumba said.
He also said his political mapping indicates that the majority Zambians feel secure under President Banda’s leadership.
[pullquote] He also said there has been what he described as a ‘burnout’ in perceived PF strongholds of Lusaka, Copperbelt and Luapula provinces because the people feel that Mr Sata can only excite them but cannot win this year’s elections.[/pullquote]
“People feel that President Banda will be a more secure hand as President of the State because they can trust him with the instruments of force like the army, air force and other security wings, without causing catastrophic circumstances. But most people cannot say that about Mr Sata. They feel insecure with him and he has not shaken that perception at all.
“There is some sense that if Mr Sata came into power, he will create an environment of instability and not peace and reconciliation,” Dr Kalumba said. He also said there has been what he described as a ‘burnout’ in perceived PF strongholds of Lusaka, Copperbelt and Luapula provinces because the people feel that Mr Sata can only excite them but cannot win this year’s elections.
On UPND president Hakainde Hichilema, Dr Kalumba said Mr Hichilema is not yet ‘ripe’ for the challenge of leading the nation and needs to be tested a bit more.
He, however, said Mr Hichilema has potential to become President in the future, not this year.
[Zambia Daily Mail]