Katuba MP Jonas Shakafuswa
Jonas Shakafuswa

Economist Jonas Shakafuswa says he expects pressure on the Zambian economy to easy going into the 1st quarter of next year after the price of copper shot up to $5900 per Metric tonne.

Mr Shakafuswa said he anticipates a higher increase if American President elect Donald Trump will honor his words of taking troops back to the Middle East, a general war on ISIS.

“Unfortunate as war is, it increases the demand for our commodity. For the Zambia economy this triggers a number of increased economic activities. Will we relate it to the global environment or that (Edgar) President Lungu has worked,” Mr Shakafuswa said.

He said depending on the advice of the Bank of Zambia, the country might enjoy a very favourable exchange rate.

He added, “Business associated with mining will boom. Direct local and foreign investments with add to the supply of forex. Let us pray for recovery in Jesus’s name.”

But Reuters reports that Copper futures fell on Tuesday during Asian trading, pulling the London contract lower, as traders cashed in gains after last week’s dramatic price spikes supported by Donald Trump’s U.S. presidential election victory.

Three-month LME copper fell 3 percent to $5,417 a tonne after earlier building on overnight gains.

The decline marks a reversal from the nearly 8 percent leap in intraday trading on Friday to its highest level since June 2015.

Copper recorded its best weekly showing last week since 2011 with an 11.2 percent gain, a rally that was also buoyed by U.S. President-elect Donald Trump’s promises of infrastructure spending.

The meteoric rise of copper last week, which was up 20 percent at one point, was not justified by fundamentals and the metal used mostly in power and construction was due to retreat.

Trump has said he plans to fix inner cities, rebuild highways and infrastructure, while erecting barriers against cheap imports, leading to higher consumption of industrial raw materials.

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58 COMMENTS

    • Very reckless politician. Ati war will create demand for copper. Basically he is saying more bullets will be made to kill innocent lives in middle east. With such words Boko haram & other Jihadist would be incensed because Middle East represents their Islam. This economist did not even listen to Trump’s speech. Tramp talked about investment in infrastructure which will include bridges, roads etc. USA being the largest economy will have a positive impact on the world market. @ economist my foot. economist in the pocket and stomach

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    • By far the biggest consumer sectors of copper are wire and cable followed by structural and plumbing etc. and not armaments! It has been a myth perpetuated by chikwakwa like characters …

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    • house fly …historically war has always had a “positive ” effect on copper sales. Just check starting with 1914 you’ll find that Shaks has a “point “

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    • @Ndanje Kahkis There has been war in Syria and Iraq basically since the oust of Ex Iraq President. Today Mosul is under intense attack by Iraq & USA and other Nato forces but our copper is still low. It used to be likely longtime but this time it is more to do with infrastructure.

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    • “Unfortunate as war is, it increases the demand for our commodity. For the Zambia economy this triggers a number of increased economic activities. Will we relate it to the global environment or that (Edgar) President Lungu has worked,” Mr Shakafuswa said.

      What is he talking about??

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    • Stop undermining economists.

      This failed politician is not an economist

      His statements are personal aims on either getting noticed and or striving for promotion. Either way the man is an economist.

      Thanks

      Bb2014

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    • What a thug! Did he have to voice it? We all know war is lucrative to arms suppliers but did he have to be excited about it? Zambia isn’t just a banana republic, it is now an idiocracy.

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    • It is not war but infrastructure development that increases demand for copper. The last large war to require lots of copper was WW2. Modern warfare uses less copper eg drones, missiles. The current price rise is typical of “buying the rumour and selling the reality”. Trump is not yet President, there is no Cabinet and budget. The price rise is based on what Trump said, not what he is doing. Jonas is just another pub economist.

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    • House fly yes that’s the current scenario which even includes oil price. This to me is because of Obama. He stopped commodity imports

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    • I predicted the rise in the value of Copper, the archives don’t lie ! I also predicted the Kwacha to drop to K6 to one USD.

      When we talk learn to listen!

      Other predictions..

      That fake Nigerian pastor conman TB Joshua will be arrested by Buhari’s regime for conning most of you !diots.

      Kambwili will embark on forming his own political party- he stands a good chance but health (BP etc) is against him!

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    • Economists are just like witch doctors and fortune tellers. There are so many of them and not any two can agree on anything. Why do we listen to people who failed to become doctors and engineers and fell into doing Economics? They are not very bright. If they were, we would have eradicated poverty by now. Look at engineering marvels and advances in medical sciences. Doctors are battling with new diseases, but economists are still struggling with the same problem for thousands of years!

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  1. I Dont understand how Shakas is relating this to the war instead of Trumps infrastructural projects …..Besides America if I am not mistaken has the largest Copper deposits in the World…small wonder we have never heard in recent times of a price increase in copper due to American demand! Simply laughable we are now praying for increased war to get our economy on track

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    • Add to that the fact that copper is recyclable. America has built up huge reserves inland that is continuously reused.

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    • Imagine getting excited for something ..they will get peanuts got from our own backyard; we it good news very to point to global external issues…we dont have windfall tax!!

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  2. So they actually know that war is business & profitable. These lunatics never cease to amaze me. Always waiting for miracles from Western markets, they can’t do anything on their own to retard the free-falling economy

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  3. Talk of blood diamonds. He is now talking of blood copper. Zambia needs to think seriously about the purposes for which our copper is used. If it’s for war it doesn’t matter how much we sell or how high the price, we shall never recover or make any gains.

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    • In your dreams kapolii-you have been very annoying and nonsensical in your support for the visionless chipatepate butch, PF.

      Its good you have been recalled to kiss the Lusaka dust-hope Lungusha has kept you in employment because if not wakulanya amenshi pa zed despite your blind royalty-hunger knows no candre!

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    • #Kudos only edgar Chapona kaloba Wrungu can vote for you. Maybe for Stupid1ty you are assured of the victory.

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  4. I wish I never opened this article.
    But again, this is where free press errs. Where are the editors. How do you go ahead and publish such a joke.
    A lot of people joke like this about copper, but to put it in writing is really so appalling.

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  5. Jonas take a seat…Stop this ‘copper’ nonsense… it detracts the country from diversifying its economy. We should all be focusing on AGRICULTURE. Copper should soon begin to play a complimentary role. Period!

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  6. Shakas you are just dreaming not under PF. Did you see any benefit to Zambians when the price of oil dropped on the international market? Shakas just dream on.

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  7. At the moment, copper is our life line. We just have to see how we can make the most out of it. Even if we greatly improved our earnings from tourism and agriculture, put together, the two sectors may not give us a third of what we earn from copper exports. It is sad whenever I hear the mine owners are cheating us on Tax and making huge profits. Yes, wars causes destruction and need for infrastructure reconstruction, hence may push copper prices up in real terms and speculative terms.

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  8. Haha! So the same scheming that Zambians use when predicting soccer result outcomes dependent on some teams dropping the ball or some other team thumping another one is being applied to our economic reality!?? Good luck and good night y’all!!

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  9. Upward trend of the last three days are sufficient to predict higher prices in the 1st Qtr. of the next year?
    DREAMERS
    For your info, today price in Asia is already down 1.285% after 4 hours of trading.
    Mr. Shakafuswa, are you trying to find positives or inventing new formula for trend calculations? Does three days performance constitute a “trend”?
    Please, be serious. Not all bloggers on this site are uneducated PF simpletons.

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  10. The commodity rout has hurt us. However war is not going to help us, the U.S is still at war in parts of the M.East. In any case with the slowdown in China its unlikely you will see Copper back to what it was. You cannot solely depend on a resource as its not infinite. We don’t set the price of copper, so time to look at other alternatives. Tourism would be a great earner if Zambia was packaged right. Its time to diversify.

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  11. Economists are generally dull people…they have shallow approach to some of these things, very simplistic.

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    • Economics is approached from either Positive or Normative perspectives. The positive aspect is factual what is definitely happening such as “the kwacha is trading at 9.91 to a dollar as at 09:00 BOZ rates” this is verifiable fact. However normative has to do with value-judgement aspects by economic analysts or players such as “the kwacha will hit 15 mark to a dollar by December 2016 due to increasing demand for Forex” or the kwacha will hit the all low 8 mark to a dollar by December 2016 due to decreasing demand for Forex” Thats the point of difference of opinion and analysis for economists. Economics is among the most prestigious faculties in most renowned universities. Hence they dont admit ”dull” students who are shallow/simplistic approach to issues.

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    • Thanks for your input. I really did not mean to down grade the Economists here. My argument is everything economists say in Zambia evolve around Copper and usually end up with just a protracted ZMW /US$ exchange rate but personally I never really get to hear anything beyond this, so as to turn around the economy of this country. I’m a Mineral Processing Engineer by profession with over 18 years experience in Copper/Cobalt Operations.
      What I have seen is this price good as it is, is that only a proof of payment is sent to a mining company, not the actual money into control 001 account at BOZ, this money is actually externalized at transaction stage and this does not change any better. I need “more flesh” in your analysis and also offer solutions as to how best this mess can be sorted…

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    • As someone said here, it almost sounds like predicting which soccer team will win a match against the other, it shows lack of depth.

      Again, don’t mean disrespect here, but it just sounds like people have no knowledge? How do you just predict without a proper basis of why things will improve? Dr Lubinda Haabazoka of CBU tries to analyse but we ares till far from understanding, well personally I don’t fully get it, Mwanawasa did it using the right people and turned things around!

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    • Any one giving an economic opinion/analyses ask them ”have your done a study/research on the issue your are commenting on or its just your ‘intelligent’ opinion” that separates positive to normative economics.
      Thankfully my first career is engineering, and as an civil engineer working on govt Projects it was very frustrating being told by a non-engineer how my budget amount will be like, not based on my designs or BOQs. Understandably in engineering/technical world plans do not fully incorporate economic/financial aspects. E.g the massive roads done by the govt may be technically sound but not economically prudent, hence not sustainable. it all bores down to “Politics” as Thomas Sowell once said – “The first lesson of economics is scarcity: There is never enough of anything to…

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    • it all bores down to “Politics” as Thomas Sowell once said – “The first lesson of economics is scarcity: There is never enough of anything to satisfy all those who want it. The first lesson of politics is to disregard the first lesson of economics” Politics and economics are usually at variance!

      How i wish we could have a better platform to share these issues and challenge one another on ideas that can enhance development of our mother Zambia. Good day!

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    • Hi The Economist.
      Thanks for engaging me in an intellectual fashion so far, which I must say is rare on this forum.

      I also wish we could have these discussions so some of us can get some understanding of the economics. As you say, am just using intelligent opinion in this regard.

      I wish we could talk.

      Good day Comrade.

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  12. Zambians have never benefited to this stone ( cooper) people in higher offices are the ones benefiting by eating well sending their children to better schools and fattening their bank accounts . We are advised to tighten our belt which are no longer belts ropes. when the world has cheap fuel here they increase ,even sugar grown in Kafue and Mazabuka is very expensive .it said good people don’t stay long such as the ever mentioned man Mr Mwanawasa (MSHSRIP)

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    • Agreed, it is because people in government are corrupt! How do you sell Copper/Cobalt/Gold/Emeralds and don’t get the actual money into BOZ control account then into company accounts? This does not happen, this is why US$ are externalized and this impacts the Kwacha and ultimately cost of doing business.

      How do you tax 0.06% per tonne of Copper mined? It is stUP***d to do this!

      The Minister of Mines knows very well what happens here, at least the technocrats have educated him over time, what does he do? He gets kick backs from the mines……..and casts a blind eye to all this.

      The Zambian citizenry also is quiet, even when they know what is happening, including myself except to write the way am doing, why? Because the regime is oppressive and no one dares speak the truth, ask…

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  13. This from REUTERS:

    Global copper markets will be oversupplied for at least two years, executives at some of the world’s major producers of the metal and traders said on Wednesday, casting doubt on the chances of a prolonged rally in prices.

    That tempered assessment of the market at an industry conference in Shanghai came after benchmark copper prices last week recorded their biggest weekly gain since 2011, largely fueled by U.S. President-elect Donald Trump’s promises of infrastructure spending.

    “In 2017, it will still be a relatively oversupplied market. In 2018 it will not be better than 2017,” said Yuneng Wu, vice president of Jiangxi Copper Co, China’s largest copper producer.

    Global markets for the metal, used in everything from wiring to construction, have been…

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  14. Jonas has a degree in economics but his stronghold is accounts he has an ACCA in that…So excuse him if as a non-practicing economist he has tried to simplify EC110…

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  15. War to create demand for our commodity? People hoping for peace your hoping for war so that ministers can get rich. What move GDP up is Technological change and labour per hour productivity. In Zambia we lack Technology and our productivity is very low.

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  16. Jonas keep on day dreaming. Zambia is longer a safe country as it used to be under Levy Mwanawasa or RB. The country is now a police state where Edgar Lungu and the police are only interested in jailing the opposition leaders whenever they leave their houses to visit towns and country side. Even greeting someone, the police require a permit… Zambia has gone to the dogs

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  17. No that fake economic analysis he is talking about.

    Copper Sees Strongest Rally in 35 Years (FCX, COPX)
    By Richard Saintvilus | November 14, 2016 — 9:38 AM EST

    The resurgence in copper, which has seen its strongest weekly rally in over 35 years, sent the Global X Copper Miners ETF (COPX) soaring to multiple new 52-week highs last week. Notably, despite some profit taking on Friday, which sent the COPX down 2.07%, the ETF ended the week 16% higher to close at $20.37.

    You would have to go all the way back to 1980 to find the last time this much optimism existed for copper, which is projected to rise strongly in 2017. After rising to a new 52-week high of $2.37 per pound last Tuesday (its highest since July 2015), copper prices ended Friday at $2.51 per pound, closing out…

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  18. The resurgence in copper, which has seen its strongest weekly rally in over 35 years, sent the Global X Copper Miners ETF (COPX) soaring to multiple new 52-week highs last week. Notably, despite some profit taking on Friday, which sent the COPX down 2.07%, the ETF ended the week 16% higher to close at $20.37.

    You would have

    The reason for the optimism in copper can be linked to the promises made by president-elect Donald Trump to grow U.S. infrastructure spending. Copper prices on Friday rose for the seventh straight trading session, thanks to a surge in China steel and coal prices, Reuters explained.

    Accordingly, investors have begun to pile into some of the world’s largest copper producers such as Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (FCX), BHP Billiton Limited (BHP), Rio Tinto plc (RIO)…

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  19. Shaka has a point here and everybody go along with him to achieve positive results. Government should get back the mines and provide proper leadership.

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  20. When life gives you lemons… make lemonade. And wait for January 20th,2017. Then afterwards MR. TRUMP’S REAL EFFECT with be FELT WORLD WIDE. People who are real shakers and movers also shake the ground when they move. WAIT FOR IT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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  21. The copper price will slide back to its normal market price into next year or early months of 2017 as envisaged by some experts.

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  22. LOST SOUL this SHAKAS!! WAR if it in the PAST HARDLY PUSHES COPPER PRICES, as others have observed, IT IS CONSTRUCTION AND INDUSTRIALIZATION which use copper! The WARS OF THESE DAYS as other have observed use LESS BULLETS but rely on ICT (Drones,guided missiles) and explosives (missiles,mines and bombs)! As @1.4 Buck Teeth has observed this guy is coming out as PUB ECONOMIST who does NOT EVEN UNDERSTAND THE TRENDS in the international economic arena!!

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  23. Happiness in serving a wrong captain; people can always lead things according to their thinking and at the end bringing out terrible implications to the next generations. GOD is watching his people . poor enconomist

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  24. In times of war, the only metal that gains a lot is Gold. This mainly caused by investors seeking safe heavens. Even when Trump won, gold rose a lot. Trump does not have the money or resources to go on a massive infrastructure spend. America is not like Zambia, where like Sata just used to wake up and announce massive projects without due diligence & planning. Even his own party, the Republicans have said that they will not support him on projects which will make America broke. The fortunate part, is that the US president’s powers are not as absolute as in our case.

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  25. Yusuf Dodia’s statement today solidifies what I said yesterday. There are no laws that compel the “mining bandits” in Zambia to keep forex in Zambia. Simple and straight forward this does not impact this maimed economy!

    I do not need to learn economics to understand this simple fact,but the question is what is government’s job here?

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