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Alba Iulia
Wednesday, April 1, 2020

Chilubi Parliamentary By-Election’s Biggest Losses and Lessons

Columns Chilubi Parliamentary By-Election's Biggest Losses and Lessons

By Isaac Mwanza

The final results of the Chilubi 2020 By-Elections are in and it is time to analyse these numbers to get a feel of the correct picture of what is happening on the ground.

2016 GENERAL ELECTIONS V 2020 BY ELECTIONS

In 2016, the PF candidate for Chilubi polled 13,412 votes and 4 years later, the PF candidate for Chilubi in 2020 by election has polled 16, 553

An Independent Candidate in 2016 General Elections, who was adopted as UPND candidate in 2020, polled 5387 while the UPND candidate had 1243 votes in 2016. By adopting this candidate, the assumption by the UPND was that they would be starting the 2020 race with a potential total of 6630 in its favour. However, the Independent/UPND candidate only managed to poll 4858 votes.

In 2020 by elections, 3 political parties are new entrants into the parliamentary race. They have each polled: NDC – 1308, PAC – 1016 and UPPZ – 279 votes.

The Patriotic Front is the biggest winner in the 2020 by elections. With this win, the PF must utilise it to deliver the 2020 campaign promise to the people of Chilubi if the gains they have made can be consolidated into 2021 victory.

The biggest loser in Chilubi was Chela Stanislaus who had good numbers as an Independent in 2016 but failed maintain that number in 2021, having run on the party ticket of Zambia’s biggest opposition party, the UPND. The UPND may appear to have made some gains but that may not necessarily be true especially that its 2020 candidate already had those numbers in 2016. Where are the UPND voters from 2016, one may ask.

The UPND, in desperate attempt for votes, has been making these decisions were loyal members of the party who have dreams are sacrificed when it comes to choice of leadership and candidates, for political expediency. It happened in Lusaka Mayoral elections and it has now happened in Chilubi. The possibility is that some members who had been building the UPND in Chilubi felt frustrated by adoption of a candidate who has not toiled for the party, and they had to cross and vote for the PF or other new entrants. This may explain the gains the PF made in Chilubi and also the numbers obtained by new entrants.

In 2016, apart from voters who voted for the 2020 UPND candidate, Chilubi had 3446 voters who didn’t want to be associated with either the PF or UPND. In 2020, we can assume this number voted for the new entrants who polled a total of 2603.

But we also had the FDD participating in the 2016 elections to the total votes of 1043. Question is what has happened with this number? These are the numbers again which may have gone to any other candidates in 2020 by elections.

We must also remember that the total votes in 2016 General Elections for Parliamentary Candidates was 25,192 representing 53.97 percent of the total voters. In 2020, a total of 24, 826 voters turned up to vote. This means a total of 366 voters did not vote in comparison to 2016.

CONCLUSION

The PF has done extremely well and this can be attributed to the robust campaign put up by its Campaign team led by Hon Brian Mundubile and Hon Chitalu Chilufya and those who worked in the background to support this team. Congratulations to the entire team and to Mr Mulenga Fube, the man I lived with in Chunga who has staked his neck for the PF since its formation in 2001.

The NDC, a party barely born a year or two ago has done much more well in Chilubi than parties that existed before. Within these formative stages, the NDC has gotten votes which UPND, the longest opposition party got in 2016. This is progress for NDC but I do not think the NDC see themselves as forming Government in 2020. The best for Mr. Kambwili is to try his luck in 2021 as Sata did and within 2 general elections, the NDC may form Government.

All parties need their think tanks to get down to Chilubi and understand how the people voted in 2020, get the reality and lessons to see whether these numbers are sustainable in 2021 elections

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32 COMMENTS

  1. Chilubi was characterized by thuggery and disadvanting the opposition from day one.
    This analysis misses this.Secondly 2021 will bring new young voters. The results will be different
    Why can’t we do fair elections, Police where shown to be biased on TV,how can we toast corruption, to the extent that even the Catholic Church refused. the K20,000 donation?

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  2. I told you that my job is to win elections. The problem with opposition is that they live in a fantasy on social media. They think being articulate on Facebook and showing off economic statistics on their pages will win an election. For us we ensure to engage with those on the ground. We have increased our vote share in chilubi the same way I will ensure his excellencys vote share is 95 percent in 2021. People think we are playing. Our hard work is paying off. Development is at a historical all time high. The people are thanking us. One love. Kz

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  3. Lusaka times thank you 4 blocking me months ago. I decided to leave this funky website because I have better things to do. I can see you have been bought off by pf in the name of that violent dull boy kaizar Zulu. Kaizar you can win elections illegally all day but ever wondered why even with so much stolen wealth you still have an ugly wife? No beautiful whlte woman in their right mind would ever let u near them.

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  4. Lusaka times why are posts not showing here. I am tired of telling you people how to do your jobs. Never ever block my posts here. I can close this website down!

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  5. KZ is not LT that is blocking you.People who do that are UPND zealots who have a small IT knowledge.Some of Us have been here with challenges where we are insulted,blocked ,nicknamed etc.Some PF supporters only read publications without posting their comments for fear of UPND zealots good at insulting people with diverse minds.

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  6. PF must not celebrate because they’ve unashamedly stifled democracy. The PF hasn’t allowed the opposition to mobilize when there are no elections using the British Law the Public Order Act. Then during elections the opposition have to give space to Eagle 1. Most voters decide who to vote for long before the campaigns commence, so the PF has killed our democracy with the abuse of POA. Please allow people to meet and discuss freely. This is what we mean when we say ECL2021 is a dictator

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  7. Interesting analysis but misleading. Comparing by-elections with general elections requires high level of stastical analysis. During general elections, voters have no idea of which party will form government and so they are much freer to vote for the Candidate and the party. During by-elections, some voters, just like the campaign team of the Ruling party will point out to the voters, voting for a Candidate from the ruling party becomes advantageous. Also, the analysis should have factored in the fact that the ruling party was the only party that campaigned during the last six days in Chilubi. That said, it is obvious that the analyst is pro-PF.

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  8. We need to go to the drawing board again as UPND, IF in by election we are defeated like this what about in general election it will be a NEAR -MISS AGAIN.

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  9. Sometimes you may think of voting for UPND but the party is filled with hatred of other people.For them it’s about HH.They are busy undressing Kalu just because he campaigned for Lungu.If the party believed in democracy why having HH standing for 5 times?PF has failed but UPND can’t be trusted.The party can’t explain where HH got money.HH came from a poor family.We all know that HH got kick backs from selling mines by under evaluating them.These are same chaps causing confusion in Zambia by gassing innocent citizens.They are too desperate for tribal power.We can’t support such a party.PF should just clean it’s house .Zambians can still vote for them.UPND can’t cheat us when the party is known what it stands for.Viva PF

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  10. Look at them unashamedly celebrating elections where others were blocked from using their full capacity ????

    After what was exposed in Chilubi , PF celebrating election victories are like a boxer celebrating wins against opponents who have their hands tied……nothing to be proud of

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  11. SpakA be a man for once and accept defeat. Have you seen us crying over the kalomo results? No because we understand the system there. However we have increased our vote share overall which is our aim. We don’t petition results because we accept that we lost in your stronghold. However we will continue to sell our message while you cry like a baby hyena ati kwa kwa kwa

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  12. Fellow country men and women we are really f u c k e d up ending up with a notoriously corrupt drunkard in state house

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  13. KZ

    How can any one accept defeat in a contest where you are shackled and blocked ?

    The system you say you understand should not be called democratic, it’s a sham. You are better off banning all opposition parties and using the money that you use for election bribes to create jobs ……

    After Chilubi the sham democracy of GRZ has been exposed.

    Internationally now when other countries hear lungu and Zambia , they will remember mugabe and Zimbabwe’s decent into anarchy

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  14. Yes PF is in Chilubi and will be dissapointed as soon as they will start hearing defectors of MPs to UPND because they know that the ground in PF is not fair and narrowing every day.
    How long is PF going to pay out hand outs?
    Zambians will soon turn to new systems.

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  15. You make a lot of assumptions in your analysis, hence renders it useless. Analyse the numbers, making assumptions of where this number has gone or reduced/increased is down right wrong. You could have have done your analysis some good if you had conducted polling/evidence gathering as to how people were voting and why. ‘If my Auntie was a man, she would have been my Uncle’-assumptions!

  16. Surely someone sat down and wrote an article no critical thinking whatsoever, no debate on the complaints raised by the opposition or the utterances by Mumbi Phiri that they deliberately bought out all services (of course with our money) on the island to starve off the opposition.
    Please have some pride in articles you publish for public consumption.

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  17. Spaka you are living in a fantasy. Wake up. You wish our country negative things but the lord will not let your evil wishes come true. Mugabe is respected by self respecting Africans. It seems you are a western world boot licker like your hh. When is hh planning a trip to America to go and cry about chilubi? Kz

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  18. @ tarino have some self respect to accept defeat rather than be a sore loser. Even your candidate know they lost. Who are you to keep claiming elections were rigged. It is now becoming boring. Every election it’s bani jata vote. If you have evidence of malpractice then why not avail it to the authorities? You did the same during the last general election . How can you fail to provide evidence of rigging in 14 days? You must be a very dull party

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  19. Kaizar Zulu ©

    I don’t wish my country ill , but PF.
    For you information I am not a UPND.

    I am an activist for democracy and anti corruption.

    I will not support anyone who purports to win elections but uses extreme violence and cheating , denying the country natural progression into development through democracy.

  20. kz, mulekwatako insoni, can you stand up on top of the mountain and shout to the world that the by elections were free and fair, and that the pf did not buy voters with money and mealie meal? How about the tribal politics which were openly practised “ati Ine ndimubemba, umu Bisa teti umutonga apyane Ine”
    Where is the One Zambia One Nation policy that our real father KK left? What type of animals are you in pf? Which god do you worship?

  21. Katana if you want to talk tribalism or fight it why don’t you start with the president of upnd who vowed that only a Tonga can lead upnd. And we are seeing just that. The pf has had 3 presidents from different ethnic groups. Until you sort out the upnd I don’t want to hear from you. Kz

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    • Yes this is very true. They started it themselves. ONLY A TONGA should succeed Mazoka, ONLY A TONGA should succeed Mazoka. You see now, it takes a few words to destroy the future of a party and I just don’t know what it will take to defeat the cancer of tribalism

  22. There is nothing to analyse coz from printing ballots compromised ECZ that is part of rigging . ECZ were compromised, campaign time PF hijacked all boats to reach the island and finally the last 5 days before elections opposition leaders were chased from the island by Zambia police with instructions from Lusaka. The Republican president and his cabinet including the deputy speaker of national Assembly had 5 days to campaign.
    DMMU shifted camp to chilubi to bribe people with mealie meal .
    Pastors were bought.
    Really speaking their is nothing to analyse

  23. Someone does not need to be an opposition supporter to realize that they were very unfairly treated by the PF in the just ended chilubi bye-election. As we always say today they are very clever but time will certainly catch up with them. The change that we voted for in 2011! How terribly sad!

  24. Challenge UPND has is leadership. Our President is not ready to spend money on candidates unless its him who is campaigning for himself and wants other people to campaign for him. We shouldn’t waste time thinking election was rigged. HH is not just good mobiliser and motivator.

  25. PF still remains popular to win 2021, its challenge tho is they don’t follow up commitments and promises. Kaoma developmental promises, Chilanga. Look at Katuba where the party did well in Eastern side, place is underdeveloped. Sesheke promises.

  26. Great analysis there, we can clearly see who’s winning the 2021 elections. Insulting doesn’t change the fact that a pf candidate won the chilubi by-elections.

  27. @Katana…. Let me help Mr. KZ, if u were God u hear two creatures praying to u wich one can u answer? Here’s a situation like a man in the forest upon his way he meets a lion nd it has been hungry for a week….. Now a man knees down to pray for protection nd promising you [as God] that if u make him survive from the lion then he will praise nd worship u…. And here’s a prayer from the lion to thank you for the food nearby praying that if it manages to hunt down it will praise for the good provision…. So be frank which prayer can u answer? Otherwise just agree that of won nd if I were u as upnd I would prefer u go nd sit down nd tell yo driver to drive u well till u reach yo destination otherwise u are been driven wit a drunken driver nd he’s not a good driver at all!!!! Since2006…

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