By Henry Kabinga
If ever there was an occasion for the UPND and Hakainde Hichilema to feel buoyant about their chances of winning the Zambian Presidency, that occasion is 20th January 2015. The only other time for such buoyancy was 2001 when Mazoka arguably won that election against Mwanawasa. Some commentators may not agree with this proposition and will argue (with some facts I must say), that contradict this postulation. They will point out that after Mazoka’s arguable win, (he officially finally came second to Levy Mwanawasa with 473,000 votes against Mwanawasa’s 507,000 representing barely 2% difference of the overall vote), Hichilema has, since 2006 been coming 3rd and that the trajectory in percentage terms has been downward, 25% in 2006, 20% in 2008 and 18% in 2011.
The argument that Hichilema will not win this time would appear plausible but in my view belies a number of very important factors that make a very serious difference between 2006 to 2011, on the one hand, and 2015 on the other. Let us start with 2006. Hichilema led an alliance called United Democratic Alliance (UDA) in which the UPND partners were FDD and UNIP, two parties that had seen better days. We can safely discount the two and state that UDA was UPND and UPND was UDA.
The somewhat poor performance in 2006 was mostly as a result of two factors. The first was the breaking away close to the election, of a significant group of members that included very senior officials that went on to form the United Liberal Party (ULP) led by Sakwiba Sikota, following a major leadership struggle (yours truly was part of this group). This led to a significant loss of votes in hitherto UPND strongholds. Secondly, Levy Mwanawasa individually made very strong inroads in UPND areas such as North Western, Western and parts of Central Province. His agricultural policies and ethnic affinities endeared him well with Central Province while North Western Province began coming to life with the opening of new mines, this being in contrast to the many years of desolation and neglect under Frederick Chiluba.
In relation to the first factor, it should be noted that most of the members of ULP have over the years been trooping back to UPND apart from those that remained in PF after the short lived PF-ULP alliance. The ones that remained are those that got Government positions such as Inonge Wina, Given Lubinda, Elfrida (Mwamba) Kansembe and Robert Sichinga. Regarding the second factor, while Rupiah Banda rode on the Mwanawasa name in the 2008 elections and maintained the support of the three provinces mentioned above, these areas are today firmly back in UPND hands and are expected to overwhelmingly give their vote to Hichilema come January 2015. Check out the rousing welcome Hichilema received in these places on his current election tour.
The 2008 Presidential Election and the 2011 Presidential and General Election saw the UPND and Hichilema in third place once more. Incumbency and the sympathy vote following the death of Mwanawasa played a very large part in seeing Banda win the 2008 election and sheer force of personality coupled with grand utopian promises all of which have not been fulfilled saw Sata win his fourth attempt at the Presidency in 2011. It is highly unlikely the PF candidate for 2015 will convincingly explain to the voter why all these promises were not kept. This is a very serious electoral disadvantage for the PF.
I submit that the factors at play in 2008 and 2011 will not be in existence come 2015. For one thing, the sympathy factor will not be as significant this time round because in my view the fratricidal infighting in PF following Sata’s death has disappointed most sympathetic voters who will be looking elsewhere for leadership. For another, Sata will not be in the race. Sata created, built and ran the PF singlehandedly. Sata was the PF and the PF was Sata and this has been admitted publicly by his top lieutenants including the now candidate ( so we hear), Edgar Lungu. Sata died without leaving a succession plan for his party as a result of which we are seeing a very serious and unmanageable power struggle among his followers.
Another subtraction for the sympathy factor is the greed for power that saw four members of the Sata family throwing their hat in the fray. To make things worse, these included the ‘grieving’ widow who saw an opportunity to cash in on the ‘cheque’ of her husband’s death, something the general Zambian public won’t stomach as it flies in the face of tradition. With less than two months before the election, the PF is in disarray with factions at each other’s throats. Testament to this fact is the mayhem and bedlam exhibited at their so called National Convention in Kabwe, a farcical charade of tragic proportions that can only signal the disintegration of the ruling party.
Time is weighing heavily against the PF, something that is not a problem for the UPND and Hichilema. Incumbency, which has been a very big advantage in previous elections is all but lost as the current incumbent president in an acting capacity, Guy Scott is involved in the fratricidal war with the top contender for the throne, Lungu. As events in Kabwe, and earlier seem to indicate, there is no love lost between Lungu and Scott. It is yet to be seen whether the PF can heal its wounds quickly enough to allow the incumbent acting president to offer moral and material support to the candidate to be adopted (now allegedly confirmed as candidate in very disputed circumstances), a nemesis in the current wrangles. Those helicopters and other logistical support that Mwanawasa, as the then contender in 2001 enjoyed from Chiluba may not materialize for Lungu. We all recall how Mwanawasa was ferried to all parts of the country in the company of either Chiluba or Kavindele, the then Vice President and the effect it had on his very narrow and questionable win.
While the PF are at war, the other major contender in the race, the MMD is not faring any better. Like the PF, there is a dogged fight for the adoption of the party candidate. Rupiah Banda, a loser in 2011 and clearly past his sale-by date is in a winner-take-all, free-for-all fight with his successor Nevers Mumba. The two camps are at war with no sign that a compromise will be reached. This fight may go on until filing of nominations in December and may only be arbitrated by the courts of law to the absolute detriment of MMD. While these fights are going on, the MMD Parliamentary caucus has thrown its weight behind Hichilema and wisely chosen Felix Mutati as its front man. This is a brilliant stroke that brings a very strong player both in terms of leadership content as well as the highly sought after Northern and urban regional support on board. All this will not be lost on the January voter who will be looking for a stable leadership to take over from the chaotic mess Michael Sata left behind.
The media has been a large factor in previous Zambian elections and the upcoming one will not be an exception. Sata won the last election with the total, almost mindless backing of the Post newspaper. In supporting Sata, Hichilema was cast in very bad light by this particular media house which at the very least ascribed a tribal tag to his name. Other accusations were also made that did not help in endearing the voter to Hichilema. This time round, the Post is at war with the PF giving their readers what can almost be described as lurid descriptions of tribal, corrupt cabals that are threatening to take over the PF. With these heavy guns off him (I have no doubt Rupiah will be another target for the Post which has unbridled hatred for the man), Hichilema can look forward to a relatively less stressful campaign, allowing him to focus all his energies on the message he needs to deliver to the Zambian people.
In addition to my above argument, it is worth noting that Hichilema’s campaign message has improved this time around. Here are a few issues contained in his recent campaign message as reported in the Daily Nation of 18 November that I think will resonate well with the voter:
- UPND will prioritize the enactment of a people driven constitution under which the 2016 elections will be held.
- UPND will not be vindictive or pursue political opponents once it forms Government. (Here Hichilema portrays himself as a mature and reliable candidate with immense leadership qualities)
- UPND will endeavour to unite the country that has been divided on regional and political lines for a long time. (Here, the indictment is on PF which is seen as promoting a tribal, regional and nepotistic agenda as reflected in Sata’s many appointments to Government positions)
- Every province will have a minister in Cabinet. (It should be noted here that for the first time since the Independence of Zambia, North Western Province had no single Cabinet Minister under the PF)
- UPND will lift the wage freeze and allow unions to bargain for their members. (This will resonate very well with civil servants who make up a significant voting block)
- UPND will reinstate all the nurses that were fired by the PF Government
- UPND will speedily pave way for the enthronement of Henry Kanyanta Sosala as Paramount Chief Chitimukulu of the Bemba speaking people. (This will bring in the much needed significant Bemba vote that has eluded the party for so long)
- UPND will reintroduce subsidies on fuel and mealie meal and ensure that ZESCO and water tariffs are reduced. (Sounds populist and unrealistic? Try asking the Zambian voter and how they swallowed Sata’s rhetoric hook, line and sinker).
The youth vote, that Sata so disingenuously carved for himself will now be certainly lost to the PF and Hichilema will certainly make inroads in this group.
Having stated my case above, I hasten to add that Hichilema and the UPND will need to work very hard on their current image to win. UPND as a party has often had the tendency to assume victory even before the first round of the fight. As a result, campaign messages are not properly formulated and targeted at specific audiences to achieve maximum impact. This has resulted in electoral defeat in significant voting areas. The party needs to revisit its electoral strategies.
The best political strategist the UPND has ever had, both in organizational and electoral terms was the late Benny Tetamashimba, their first Secretary General who joined Mwanawasa’s Government after the Mazoka loss. In fact there are those who think if Tetamashimba had lived, Rupiah Banda would have probably won the 2011 election (Tetamashimba died before the 2011 election when he was a Minister in the MMD Cabinet and legend has it that RB thinks with him on board, he would have won). I do not think personally that Tetamashimba would have made Rupiah win that election because it was an election for change like the 1991 election. Such is the desperation that we end up having when people are desperate to win.
I however am convinced that if the sort of strategies that Tetamashimba employed, modified to remove the Machiavellian element that was inherent in them, were employed today, UPND would greatly benefit from them and I believe, win January 2015! But, I leave this to a later another day and another/other article/(s).
I leave the reader to think through my discourse and would want to create dialogue. In the meantime, readers can reach me on hkabinga2013 AT gmail DOT com and hkabinga AT yahoo DOT co DOT uk
HH over-promising
2015 vote PF
I thank you
PF and MMD should not be allowed to delay the By-elections in January. Their confusion is NOT Zambia’s confusion. There is no chaos or confusion in Zambia, the Chaos and confusion is only in PF and MMD. Let us be clear about that!! UPND should not allow these idio!ts to try to delay the elections by any form of political dribbling. The Electoral Commission of Zambia should be put on alert that this Election will go forward without respect for who is ready and who is not ready. UPND should ensure that no injunctions against the By-Elections themselves are allowed. And finally, UPND should protect the votes of the people through international monitoring and parallel vote counting. Do not allow these Hooligans to dribble you because God knows they will try!!
Miles is energetic and has experience in government and private sectors of the economy. He is the youngest President of any political party worth mentioning. Sampa for presidency.
HH, has been consistent and very focused. He is very smart too. I believe, with the correct people around him, he will steer this country to its rightful place, prosperity. For this reason, my family, starting from my grandmother, are voting for HH come 20 Jan
Sensible analysis. If pf win this time around it’ll be a big surprise to all realists.
Scott won’t let any other party win the 2015 election. He wil? do just exactly what he has done in the PF. If it entails rigging for PF to win,then he will do exactly that,cause he’s preparing to be president of Zambia and Miles Sampa is just being used to achieve his dreams. Once elected in office, he’ll use Miles Sampa to enact a constitution that will allow him(Scott) to stand as republican president.
HH is forming Government come 2015.PF is gone.Famers + cival servants will boot out PF.What well analysed article.Underate HH at your own peril.HH has choppers and resources just like PF government so it will be hard for PF candidate to go to all areas were HH has been is the short time remaining.By the time they reach HH will be making a second round.Watch the space.
Trying to imitate Mushota? you are no match Katondo boys…that blogger is way too smart for you. U just love and hate her at the same time
You are stupid. PF has failed, Yet you lowly ineducated ***** is still too dull to see. PF = Anus and you’re the feaces thereof. Mother****er.
You fool Katondoboy. We don’t need holigans, Kaponyas, Uneducated chaps like you to misslead right thinking Voters. So Just shut-up and be in Chawama. This time is HH. We don’t mind your Vote from Chawama.
HH is doing fine. Its GOD’s working for sure !! Your analysis is upto the MARK. PF had really messed up.
@Katondo boys, EL is going NOWHERE its ONLY GOD WHO ANSWER PRAYERS, some FAITHFUL PRAYED and these are the RESULTS. NO MORE PF NO MATTER how THEY WILL TRY TO HOLD ON TO POWER it has already sliped frm them.
God is Great.
Anderson Chisala
Edgar is the people’s choice and Sampa is Scott’s choice
There is a possibility of a splinter party….but that’s not on the menu right now. ..PF will engage the court of Law if Scott trys to stick to his guns.
Anyway
2015 vote PF ( Edgar )
I thank you
All peace loving Zambians know whom to vote for if their want peace to continue. People will pay heavily if their attempt to vote on tribal lines. Promises of jobs and money won’t be of use in a country which is politically unstable.
You’re dreaming bo Kabinga, (HH) will now be a distant 3rd since heavy weight RB came along. ba (HH) ni ba mambara!
I have enjoyed reading Kabinga’s article and he advanced/furthered a well argued discussion/discourse. He is a very good academic writer and his narrative mirrors/reflects a thorough critique of Zambia’s past and present political landscape. Considering the on-going happenings/current deteriorating intra-fighting and non-delivery of services to the Zambian electorates by the PF, we see the UPND achieving gains and sustaining them (gains) in former PF strongholds. There is growing evidence which supports the theory that the UPND has crafted strategies in ensuring that it delivers meaningful messages in its campaigns. We support the UPND in that it presents the voiceless masses in Zambia.
Kudos
You deserve more kudos my dear friend. …Spread the word
2015 vote PF ( Edgar )
I thank you
Katondo Boys we are brothers united in cause. spread the word to prevent incompetence from entering state house through (HH)
well balanced opinion
What a sensible ,well researched article . God bless the writer and please bring to surface more of such deserved reminders knowledge .
I agree very well researched article, my only observation is that the write forgot the illiteracy levels in the country, people of Zambia easily forget. the performance of PF in Government has been very dismal, cost of living is high, high unemployment, dirt cities due to uncontrolled vending, being ruled by thugs and cadres, no respect for human rights, political harassment, unplanned expenditures- budget overruns, induced bye-elections and the list goes on.
Due to illiteracy levels – people are easily bought with a chitenge, with tribal tantrums, with song of abuilding as if its not government or tax payers money, these could be issued which can make the difference between being elected or not. UPND look into these.
Good article Henry. This is the level and calibre of analysis and discussion we should elevate ourselves to. We should not lower our analysis and discussion to the level of cadres!
Good article, with very good points. However, please dont include issues that have not been proven. Mazoka lost to Mwanawasa, period.
The mistake most candidates and political parties make is to think that when they win Lusaka Province then they have won the election, No!
Mazoka had a resounding victory in Southern Province and Lusaka only. Mwanawasa had a resounding victory in Copperbelt, Luapula and Northern as well as good votes in other provinces. UNIP won Eastern province.
I told a friend who is Tonga that the only time they will have a Tonga in State House is when they produce a candidate who they can sell to the whole country, and that time is now. I am from Luapula and I am very proud to say that am voting for HH! He is the best candidate in this election.
I like the analysis. I for one agree with the submission. HH can win this election because PF has failed to deliver on most of its promises. The voting block that almost propelled Andy to victory is on board flight HH 2015. I voted PF in last election because I wanted MMD out of power. This time around am voting HH. They are a lot of people who voted PF and are going to vote for HH this time around due to various reasons. PF hasn’t got the same support it had in 2011, just wait for 20 jan to prove this.
No miracle will make HH form a government on 15th January 2015.He has nothing to offer to the nation.
Only a foolish person like you who does not understanding the meaning of ECONOMIC POLICY would even think Sata understood anything, AT ALL. *****
Good article. I say this not because I agree with your conclusion but because your analysis is paved with facts. The only thing I can add to that is that this time around UPND as an organization does not need to sale itself. Except for one most of the previous elections were held as general elections. The people were voting for MPs at the same time. This creates a situation where as a party you need a second name to tag to a presidential candidate. Creates the Political heavyweights factor. This time around the candidates a meeting squarely on a one to one and will be judged on thier own merits, achievements and character. Which most agree HH wins hands down.
This article is brilliant. Not those biased ZR and Post articles. The
aspiring presidential candidates must take heed. The intelligent minds have dissected the political platform in the country. There is still hope for Zambia after all. Beautiful work Mr Kabinga.
thank you…. nice article… but i disagree with you over late tetamashimba….RIP. he was not a big factor in UPND… and good boy… muzunu anikonde…. type….however with all fairness UPND is winning this election….. PF has failed… MMD failed… what else can they tell zambians? viva UPND viva HH … viva Zambia