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File:Chart showing Zambian kwacha’s the exchange rate trend and Inflation
Dear LT Editor,
Please publish this for those dumb politicians that think that the demise of the Kwacha in due to “natural causes” !!!!!!
Explainer: how currency markets work and why the South African rand is falling
Given that South Africa operates within a flexible exchange rate regime, the value of the rand, like any commodity, is determined by the market forces of supply and demand. The demand for a currency relative to the supply will determine its value in relation to another currency.
Theoretically, the demand for a floating currency – and hence its value – changes continually based on a multitude of factors. In the case of the rand, its current weakness can be attributed to a myriad of structural problems facing the local economy.
The main determinants of a currency’s value include demand for a country’s goods and services. This is closely linked to the growth and national income of its main trading partners.
Equally important is the domestic interest rate. If it is high it is likely to attract foreign capital, causing the exchange rate to strengthen. But high inflation can wipe out the benefit of high interest rates to foreign investors.
Additional factors serve to drive the currency down.
These include a current account deficit. The current account deficit gets bigger when a country spends more on foreign trade than it is earning and has to borrow capital from foreign sources to make up the difference.
This implies that a country requires more foreign currency than it is getting through sales of exports, and it supplies more of its own currency than foreigners demand for its products. This excess demand for foreign currency leads to depreciation in the value of a currency.
Factors such as political instability and poor economic performance can reduce investor confidence. This inevitably forces foreign investors to seek out stable countries with strong economic performance. Thus, a country that is perceived to have positive attributes will attract investment away from countries perceived to have more political and economic risk.
There is a further complication to currency movements. The buying and selling of currencies is no longer driven only by the need to facilitate trade but also by the demand for currencies as financial assets. This means that currencies are bought and sold like any other asset. Decisions by traders – to buy or sell a currency – can have a marked effect.
The impact of the turmoil in China
South Africa’s currency lost 26% of its value in the six months after turmoil gripped Chinese markets in June 2015. This was when the People’s Bank of China surprised markets by executing a 2% devaluation of the yuan and changing the way it traded its currency. The aim was to weaken the yuan to boost its export competitiveness.
This, coupled with slower economic growth, has aggravated the situation for South Africa as well as other African countries that rely on oil and mineral exports to China. Emerging markets most exposed to lower growth prospects and subdued commodity prices have seen the sharpest falls.
The rand is expected to remain under pressure with many analysts predicting that it will fall further in 2016. It is not alone. Many other emerging market currencies have been dealt the same fate.
But the rand is substantially weaker than it might have been. The sudden reshuffling of the finance ministry was seen as weakening one of the country’s key macroeconomic institutions and continues to undermine market confidence.
Implications of the weak rand
The weak rand has a number of implications for the country’s growth prospect. Firstly, the weakening currency carries the risk of pushing up inflation because imported goods are more expensive. This means that the South African Reserve Bank faces a difficult decision. It can keep interest rates low but then faces even higher inflation. This will only devalue the rand further.
If the central bank takes more aggressive action by raising interest rates, it risks stifling growth in an economy that is only growing at 1.5%.
The rand’s weakening could not have come at a worse time for South Africa. The country is suffering from the worst drought since 1992 which has increased food costs and pushed the farming industry into recession. The price of white corn, a staple food in southern Africa, has more than doubled on the South African Futures Exchange in the past year.
With large parts of the economy already in recession, coupled with worsening debt levels and the threat of credit-rating downgrades, it looks like the economy will contract. This implies that Finance Minister Pravin Gordhan has limited room to boost spending.
The weak rand will also see the cost of imported goods for consumers rise. In addition, while the rest of the world benefits from record low oil prices, the country’s weaker currency means it will not able to take full advantage of this and may face higher fuel prices in the near future.
On the flip side, the weaker rand does have some benefits. It is helping mines stay afloat. And gold mines could make profits again as the gold price has held up more than the prices of other minerals. There may also be a boost in tourism.
The weaker rand may also have short-term benefits for sub-Saharan countries importing substantial volumes from South Africa.
Finally there may be a boost for local exporters. But this could be stifled by the rise in the price of imported raw materials which will contribute to higher costs of production for manufacturers.
Is the rand over-traded?
In 2013 the South African rand was ranked as the 18th most-traded currency in the world. Surprisingly, while South Africa accounts for only 0.3% of the world’s daily foreign exchange market turnover, the rand accounts for 1.1% of worlds daily currency trading.
This difference is largely due to the daily trade taking place outside South Africa by non-residents. This is partly a result of virtually no exchange control restrictions for foreigners trading the rand but many in place for South Africans who wish to trade in foreign currency.
This has been highlighted as a further problem faced by the central bank in trying to influence the value of the rand.
FILE: UPND president Hakainde Hichilema (left) interacting with Jack Mwiimbu
United Party for National Development (UPND) spokesperson Charles Kakoma has said that Monze Central member of Parliament (MP) Jack Mwiimbu has no intention of being vice-president and he has never had those intentions.
Speaking in response to reports that some members of UPND want Mr Mwiimbu to be appointed vice-president so that he can be adopted as a running mate to party president Hakainde Hichilema in the August 11 tripartite elections, Mr Kakoma accused the ruling Patriotic Front (PF) of using this as a scheme to destabilise UPND
Mr Kakoma disowned the purported UPND members and described them as PF members who just want to cause confusion in his party by creating a picture that UPND is a tribal party.
“Those are schemes being created by PF to cause confusion in the UPND. It is part of their schemes to continue labelling UPND as a tribal party. Jack, has no intention of being vice-president and he has never had those intentions.
“We are definitely going to have a running mate but it is not Jack Mwiimbu. There are no newcomers in UPND. Everybody enjoys the same privileges,” Mr Kakoma said.
According to Daily Mail, the alleged members of UPND prefer Mr Mwiimbu to vice-president for politics Canisius Banda and his administration counterpart Geoffrey Mwamba. Mr Aubrey Mwiinga said in Kitwe yesterday that Mr Mwiimbu is a loyal and dedicated member of the UPND and he should be considered for adoption as Mr Hichilema’s running mate.
He said tribe should not be a hindrance for Mr Mwiimbu to be appointed UPND vice-president and subsequently adopted as running mate to Mr Hichilema.He said Mr Mwamba and Dr Banda are newcomers who have not done much for the UPND compared to Mr Mwiimbu.
“Mr Mwiimbu is the right man to be adopted as our party’s running mate to our president [Mr Hichilema]. He is one of the loyal and reliable party leaders we have in UPND,” Mr Mwiinga said.
Another UPND member Clement Nalishebo said Mr Mwiimbu has made great contributions to the party and should be recognised by appointing him vice-president.
He said Mr Mwiimbu has not only made great contributions towards the growth of the UPND but has also been active in championing the interests of the opposition political party and the people of Zambia in Parliament.
He also said Mr Mwiimbu has been actively providing checks and balances to Government.
And Mr Moonga Mweemba said Mr Hichilema should heed their call to appoint Mr Mwiimbu as vice-president because he has been with the party in “good and bad times” rather than picking between Mr Mwamba and Dr Banda.
However, PF chairperson for the information committee Mr Frank Bwalya said the ruling party has no time to waste to sponsor people to cause confusion in the UPND
Mr Bwalya said in an interview in Lusaka yesterday that the PF is not interested to see who is going to be appointed as Mr Hichilema’s running mate.
“We have no interest to know what is happening in the UPND because this is a party which has been known by Zambians for losing elections. We don’t have anything to learn from UPND and if UPND had won an election maybe, we could have gotten interest to learn from their members,” he said.
Higher education minister Dr Michael Kaingu (r) shares a light moment with former health minister and also former member of the central committee Allina Nyikosa (l) during the 51st Zambia ‘s Independence celebrations at Solwezi stadium in Solwezi on Saturday as North-Western province freedom fighters chairman Bwanga Wisamba (m ) looks on
MMD President Nevers Mumba says Mwandi MP MIchael Kaingu has expelled himself by joining the PF.
Speaking in an interview with Hot FM radio Dr. Mumba said Dr. Kaingu has just officially joined the PF because despite being MMD MP he had been PF for a long time adding that the party was strong in the constituency.
“We have very strong structures in Mwandi as MMD, we have already identified a candidate who we feel will do an excellent job. Mr Kaingu has been a member of the PF for a long time now and he has a democratic right to do what he wants to do,” he said.
Dr Mumba said by choosing to go to another political party Dr. Kaingu who is also Higher Education Minister had expelled himself from the former ruling party.
The opposition leader was reacting to Dr. Kaingu’s announcement that he will recontest his seat on the ruling PF ticket in the next general elections.
Raphael Nakacinda MMD Spokesperson
The opposition MMD says President Lungu will have to live with the mad he dragged his name through when he decided to pardon musician Clifford Dimba popularly known as General Kanene who was convicted on defilement charges..
In an interview MMD Spokesperson Raphael Nakacinda said the President dragged his name into the mad and now he has to live with it because of the reckless decision he made to pardon someone because he sang a song for him.
Mr. Nakacinda said the decision which he said was purely made because Kanene sang a song was a miscalculation from State House.
” The President has shot himself in the foot on General Kanene, his decision to pardon him just because the man sang a song for him was a high level of miscalculation from State House, a song is not enough to convince a person that he has reformed,” he said.
He said what General Kanene needed was for him to reform from his inherent abusive character and that the President should have focused on that as opposed to releasing him from prison before he had reformed.
Mr. Nakacinda said the President embarrassed himself when he pardoned Kanene and made him his ambassador for Gender Based Violence GBV and that he has to live with the embarrassment.
Yesterday President Lungu revoked the appointment of Mr. Dimba as GBV ambassador because of the on going court case were he is accused of beating up a woman.
It’s a new year and I’ve already been so busy, running around, planning, baking, cooking – the list is endless. In all the chaos I sometimes forget to, or rather I’m too busy to, cook a complicated meal. Cooking can be long and arduous, but it doesn’t have to be. I definitely believe in no fuss meals and today I wanted to bring you something extremely simple but absolutely delicious. Perfect for a snack or for a quick lunch or dinner, this sweet chilli chicken is sure to impress. You can make it with chicken legs, thighs or wings; and eat them with nearly anything under the sun.
Ingredients
3-4 tbsps of any chilli sauce, depending on how hot you want it
2 tbsp of honey
2 tbsp of olive oil/vegetable oil
6-8 chicken wings , skin on
2 garlic cloves, crushed and chopped
1lemon cut into 4 wedges, to serve, optional
1 thumb piece of ginger
1 handful of spring onions (optional)
Salt & Pepper to taste
Sesame seeds (optional)
1 large red chilli (optional, for extra spice)
Method
Make the glaze by mixing together the chilli sauce, honey, sesame seeds and oil in a large bowl. Using a knife make 3-4 slits across the skin of each chicken piece. Season with salt and pepper then lift the skin of each wing and tuck the crushed garlic underneath.
Now dip the chicken pieces in the glaze until they are evenly coated. Reserve the rest of the glaze for later.
To cook the chicken, preheat olive oil in a wok or a pan, put the chicken in the pan and fry for 8 minutes or until golden and sticky. Turn the chicken breasts over, cook for another 6-8 minutes pour the remaining glaze over the chicken and fry together until chicken is cooked through.
Serving
Serve straight away with wedges of lemon for squeezing over, if you like.
You can grill the chicken for a healthier alternative.
Enjoy them on their own, with plain rice or even potato wedges. These are perfect to serve at parties or BBQ’s as well and are guaranteed to leave your guests wanting more.
Kanta Temba is a cake maker and decorator. She is also the owner and founder of Kanta Kakes – cake shop.
You can find her work onwww.kantakakes.com. Follow her on twitter @KantaKakes and Instagram @KantaTemba.
Zambia captain Christopher Katongo says the team is primed for today’s derby showdown against Zimbabwe in the two sides 2016 CAF African Nations championship (CHAN) Group D opener.
Katongo and fellow 2012 Africa Cup winning hero Isaac Chansa are expected to headline Zambia’s charge at CHAN in what will be Chipolopolo’s first outing at the tournament exclusively for home-based players since 2009.
“The team is well balanced. Most important for us is team work. In the opening game, the team with more energy and desire will win,” Katongo said who now plays for Green Buffaloes.
“We are ready for the derby against Zimbabwe. We need each other to win. We have done our homework and we are ready.”
And a lot of expectations have been placed on Katongo and Zanaco midfielder Chansa’s shoulders who were not part of the qualifiers as the CHAN team heads into their opening match minus striker Winston Kalengo whose three goals propelled Zambia to the finals.
Kalengo is now ineligible after moving to AC Leopards of Congo-Brazzaville from Zesco United this month.
Meanwhile, Zambia will after Tuesday afternoons game face Uganda in their penultiamte Group D match on January 23.
Zambia will wrap-up their Group D engagements on January 27 against Mali.
Father Frank Bwalya has dropped his title of “Father” because some people in the political arena have a problem with his title of a Father in the catholic church, reports Pan African Radio Journalist Hermit Hachilonde.
Bwalya says he will not hesitate to drop his title because it can be easily done and he sees no problem to do so in respect with people who have a problem with his title.
He has however implored all local and international media organizations to with immediate effect to start quoting him as PF Deputy Spokesperson Frank Bwalya or PF Chairperson for Information Frank Bwalya.
He further emphasized on anyone mentioning his name in the media to respect his decision and say Frank Bwalya not father Frank Bwalya.
Below here is a full statement made available to the media by Father Bwalya.
I wish to inform you dear friends that for purposes of quoting me please do so as PF Deputy Spokesperson Frank Bwalya or PF Chairperson for Information Frank Bwalya.
And when you mention my name without the above portfolios please just use Frank Bwalya. What I am essentially saying is that you should drop my title of “Father” for purposes of quoting me in the media.
Some people have a problem and I see no problem to drop the title. However, kindly note that this is not by any means to suggest any development regarding my status. I would appreciate your consideration on this one.
UPND president Hakainde Hichilema interacts with marketeers in Marapodi township
United Party for National Development (UPND) President Hakainde Hichilema has said that the looming hunger in Zambia is because of the PF Government’s lack of vision and management skills.
In a statement released to the media yesterday, the UPND leader said that his party warned the PF about the impending adverse weather conditions due to El Nino and the danger of exporting maize, but President Lungu and his Government did not listen
Below is the full statement
OFFICIAL STATEMENT
Solutions to President Lungu’s failed maize economics
President Edgar Lungu has said that the chances of importing maize are high in Zambia given the erratic rainfall that we are experiencing. This is not just bad dream. Hunger is looming because of the PF Government’s lack of vision and management skills.
The Millers Association of Zambia (MAZ) has warned about an increase in mealie meal prices. Under the PF a 25kg bag of mealie meal has already risen from K50 up to K100. This has been attributed to rising production costs and reduced quantities of the maize grain on the market. Yet President Lungu, through his Minister of Agriculture Given Lubinda, repeatedly assured the nation that there was a bumper harvest with enough maize for exports.
Even at that time we warned the PF of the mistake they were making by offering farmers 75 Kwacha per bag (1500 Kwacha a ton or US$120 at the current exchange rate). We warned them that informal traders had found a market which was offering them up to US$200/ton, leading to massive exports by both formal and informal means, which apparently the PF encouraged. So while the food national balance sheet looked good on paper, had President Lungu and his PF Government listened to those warnings they could have seen how exports would lead to reduced maize grain availability. This failure to pay attention, heed warnings and plan ahead cannot be blamed on nature and God, as Lungu is trying to imply again. In fact, as UPND, we even warned the PF about the impending adverse weather conditions due to El Nino. Nature and calamities will always be there, that is why people build houses that insulate themselves from nature.
Having issued a warning of the hunger and food insecurity to come after observing the PF’s recklessness of encouraging large quantities to go to exporters rather than the FRA, we also moved to provide solutions and advice to the PF Government, including in a statement to the media on July 22, 2015.
“We are currently being told the country is exporting huge quantities of maize to neighbouring countries in order to clear stocks for last season. Exporting of such produce as maize grain is the problem we have been talking about because we don’t do any value addition.
Our alternative policy, if indeed we have too much maize, would have been to encourage exporting of finished maize products such as mealie meal and feedstock etc. We need to encourage milling companies to grind more maize grain for export earnings. From maize milling, which is value addition, there are also lots of other by-products such as feedstock for our animals.
In short when we export maize grain, we also export a lot of other products which in turn finds it’s way back into Zambian market as imports of our own products and in the process contribute to the Kwacha’s fall”.
Given that the weather forecast for this farming season, as we warned, was that of El Nino, President Lungu and his Government should have prepared for the worst. We are now faced with a situation where Government has failed to secure food despite early calls for remedial measures.
We are now concerned how the majority of Zambians will survive given the ever rising cost of living and redundancies both in the mining sector and other industries that are buckling due to increased costs of production and load shedding.
The PF has let the Zambian people down by failing to address the situation before people go hungry. They must now apologise and take responsibility for delivering lasting solutions, and not bury their heads in the sand while Zambians suffer.
In short, we repeatedly warned the PF Government not to export maize before ensuring the country had enough stock. They have not heeded, and as we speak maize is being exported out of the country in large quantities.
Surely it is not rocket science to know that we have to secure our stocks before exporting to avoid such a shortage, as well as to develop value addition industries in order to improve the standard of living for Zambians.
File:Forum for Democracy and Development spokesperson Antonio Mwanza stresses a point during the meeting to demand for the release of the draft Zambian constitution
FDD Spokesperson Antonio Mwanza says a visionary leader cannot allow the depletion of strategic food reserves in the country.
Mr. Mwanza said the Food Reserve Agency is a strategic institution meant to avert any calamities which may arise as a result of food shortages due to drought hence should not have been allowed to deplete its stocks.
He wondered how a normal government can allow what has happened at the agency especially that the problem could have been avoided.
“When President Edgar Lungu said he had no vision, he was right. How else can a visionary leader let his government deplete all it’s strategic food reserves within six months on uncontrolled exports? The Food Reserve Agency (FRA) has a primary goal of storing strategic food reserves so that in case of a natural calamity such as a drought, the people should not starve or run to other countries for food,” he said.
Mr. Mwanza further said the agency purchased 200 000 metric tonnes more than the country needed for strategic reserves but that government had carelessly exported everything due to their lack of vision.
“Zambia needs 800 000 metric tonnes of maize for its strategic reserves. Last year FRA purchased 1, 000 00 metric tonnes of maize, 200 000 more than what the country needs. But Mr Chagwa and his visionless government has exported almost everything within six months and now we are stuck. The country is facing starvation not because we do not have enough rains but because our Government has depleted the reserves through careless exports of our maize,” he said.
He also said leaders should not blame nature for their failure to plan.
“Next you will hear cadres saying it’s global or its not President Lungu who creates rains. Sorry it’s not about the rains, it’s about the failure to plan for the future. We had enough maize but we sold it all and that has got nothing to do with whether we have enough rains or not. It has everything to do with whether your leaders have a vision or not,” he said.
Flash Buses proprietor has described some of public transport drivers as the most useless people around and has called on them to earn the public’s respect because they provide an important service to the public which deserves dignity.
Speaking when he featured on 5FM’s People on the Move program Ismail Kankhara said public transport was an important sector but that the drivers have lost their respect because of the way some of their colleagues conduct themselves.
He said drivers should view themselves as doctors because what they do is a key contribution to the country’s economy.
“I am sorry to say that mini bus drivers are the most useless people around, not all of them but most of them. They have been complaining and criticising Lusaka City Council that there are no bus stops along Chilumbulu and Burma roads but I was on Chilumbulu road, it was a Sunday and the roads are clear but these idiots, sorry to say this but most of them are idiots, are stopping before or after the bus stop or even in the middle of the main lane,” he said.
He called on the drivers to behave in a manner that dignifies the job they do and earn the respect of commuters.
“Every minibus driver in Lusaka not only from flash buses but everyone who is involved in the transportation of people let’s us see how we can change people’s mindsets and earn their respect. Let’s us behave in a manner that people will start respecting us just like they respect health workers. When you go to hospitals whether the doctor is young or not we respect them why can’t it be like that with us, we contribute a lot to this country’s economy but we don’t take ourselves seriously hence no one respects us and what we do,” he explained.
Meanwhile some commuters talked to said people will continue looking down on public transport drivers as long as they continue behaving like intoxicated political cadres.
Moses Michelo who commutes to his office in town everyday said most drivers do not take their jobs seriously because they do not realise the importance of the service they provide to the country.
He said there was need to help the drivers realise that as transporters of people their job is as important as that of the people they drive to work or business in the morning adding that even their dressing should reflect the importance of what they do.
He said there was need for the Road Transport and Safety Agency (RSTA) to enforce traffic laws and regulations strictly as the drivers had taken advantage of lax manner the Agency conducted its role.
Former Education Minister Geoffrey Lungwangwa has observed that having a state policy on higher education will direct the development of colleges and universities in the country.
Professor Lungwangwa said backyard universities and colleges will continue mushrooming as long as the country remains without a policy on higher education.
He said not having a policy on tertiary education is hampering the development of higher education in the country.
He explained that universities world over are not built overnight but that they earn the status of university over a long period of time after existing as colleges.
He said the lack of state policy on tertiary education has led to people waking up and forming universities and colleges in their backyards.
Professor Lungwangwa is however hopeful that government will soon put in the law to direct the development of higher education because he was aware that by the time the former ruling party, the MMD, left office the policy was being drafted.
And Professor Lungwangwa has also observed that the country has not transformed the education curriculum to make it more relevant to the national development needs.
He underscored the importance of revisiting the curriculum so as to make education more relevant saying education curriculum should be in tune with the current needs of the country.
“We need to reform our curriculum so as to orient the education system at levels of our needs as a nation because the current system was flamed along Western education making it less likely to address our challenges,” Pro Lungwangwa said.
So Zambia is poised to have the 2016 Presidential and Parliamentary general elections under the newly amended constitution. Fantastic. I am excited due to some progressive clauses in there, of note is the dual citizenship. Our friends and relatives in the diaspora will surely have something to giggle about over this one. They have been awaiting this one for ages. Now their kids born elsewhere on the planet can at least also claim Zambia as their home land. What a breath of fresh air them parents must be breathing.
The ceremony came and went. History was made on that 5th Day of January, 2016. Like it or not it was history and history is told by the victors.
Time to move on to the implications of some of the new items that have just become part of the supreme law of the land.
My own take from most of the content, and one which was a big discussion point from many constitution making processes in the past, is the 50%+1 threshold for the presidential candidate to emerge as winner in the presidential race.
For my own sanity, I looked up 50% +1 vote just to be sure what it means, and now I get it: a presidential candidate must get 50% of the votes plus one more vote than the closest contender. Essentially one can have 10 and other 11 and the 11 one wins. This is also called First-Past-The-Post(FPTP). But wait , wasn’t that what we had before? Of course but we now have the advanced version of the same.
Now, lets us first get rid of the confusion that might come up. Some people use terms such as majority vote, highest vote and plurality voting systems. These three all use the First-Past-The-Post voting method with some minor tweaks in the execution of the method. The two-round voting system uses the FPTP voting method in each of the two rounds. Round one determines which two candidates will progress to the second and final round of voting.
Part 1 of this four part series will focus on the 2001 elections. I will guide you through some of my thoughts and you can give me some of yours and we get talking about this very important political change for our country. Our politics have changed for ever with this new clause of 50% +1 vote.
I will examine the performance of the political parties in Zambia today and in the past. I will pick the top 4 in each of the elections that took place during the past 15 years. That information will form the basis for the discussion as to how the 50% +1 would have worked out for each of those years, starting with 2001. By the end of part 4 of my articles, I will give you my opinion on the most likely outcome of the 2016 elections and also give you a chance to do the same. If you are on telegram (whatsapp competitor), we can discuss your thoughts there. The link is 50%+1 telegram discussion.
History – Remember the time
To do this write-up some justice and to make the reader follow my rumblings, I went into the archives of previous presidential elections in Zambia. While doing the searching, I noticed that apart from the 1991 and 1996 presidential elections, all the post multi-party democracy elections have never produced a winner in the first round of voting that would qualify for the absolute majority under a two-round system.
It also means, we have had no way of knowing how differently people would have behaved given a second chance to pick from the top two candidates, until now that is as I show you how. One thing is for sure though, the 1991 elections were the only multiparty elections in this country that had almost zero regional or tribal voting as we would like to call it. If you check the 1991 voting figures, you will be my disciple on this one. I will use 1991 as the baseline vote and accord it Grade 0 Tribal Voting Index (0 being the lowest tribal index and 10 the highest), TVI hence forth. This is my index and its use is based on my perception of the results distribution compared to 1991.
Reverse Action – Donchi Kubeba on Steroids
I will show you in later articles, that the 50% +1 that has now become law is a very cunning way for the PF party to try and beat the UPND at their own regional voting style while enhancing their own hold on areas where they do very well with regional votes, such as Luapula province. Before the UPND supporters reading this try and go for my chin, just hold on a bit and see where I am going and also just check the elections results below. You know the old saying about numbers. What the PF is doing is called reverse action or in our case here reverse tribalism, regionalism or even more boldly put “Donchi Kubeba on steroids”.
Going back to the figures, would the late Mr. Mazoka (MHSRIP) have been the winner had we been given a round two in 2001? Would the late President, Mr. Sata (MHSRIP) have been president earlier than 2011? Would Mr. Hichilema have benefited from a second round in 2015 or would it have awoken the absent voters and given President Lungu a bigger margin? May be, may be not. With the help of these numbers, we can try and see how voters might react, given a second chance of voting, with or without their initial candidate being among the top two.
As they say, we learn from the past. Study the data below carefully. We shall use the same data throughout the series.
15 year Zambia Election Results ( data source: www.elections.org.zm)
These results are rather interesting if you look closely. There is a lot of data to be gleaned from here but for now though I will be focusing the analysis on 2001 election numbers, the front role in the chart above.
2001 Polls
Not shown here (to reduce clatter), in 1996, of the 1,325,053 votes cast (please check the ECZ Website), the winner needed 662,000 votes to get absolute majority. Late President, Dr. F.T.J. Chiluba (MHSRIP), polled 913,000 votes. No round two would have been needed. As I indicated earlier, 1991 was the most tribal free election in Zambia and scored a TVI of 0. In 1996, a few politicians came up and thought they could also exercise their right to be elected to the highest office of the land but in my opinion, it was way too soon for Zambians to have developed an appetite high enough to get rid of the MMD. People were not really ready to change after 27 years of waiting for change and may be change just for its sake. So again, we got an election with TVI index of about 2 and still got a more than 50% +1 for President Chiluba.
In the 2001 elections, both Mr. Mwanawasa and Mr. Mazoka were miles away from the votes needed to reach the 50%+1 absolute majority. A round two here would have been very interesting between MMD and UPND. Why do I say so. Well all of a sudden, the TVI index had really picked up to about 5. Look at the chart below. I have run the provincial numbers for you and they were like so, just the top 4 parties again:
2001 Presidential elections by Province & Party ( data source: www.elections.org.zm)
The TVI index here is showing us that with the introduction of more presidential candidates from various parts of the country, we started getting into a scenario of votes being distributed based on regional groupings and/or strongholds anchored on traditional relationships with past politics. Are you surprised that FDD under the late General Tembo came second in Eastern and Lusaka provinces? What did those two places have in common at that time apart from a dominant language? What about MMD and UPND in relation to the provinces where they came first and second by merely swapping positions? You will also recall that at this time, late President Mwanawasa was believed to be Bemba and he went along with that. He later had to switch and become Lenje during the 2006 elections. That tells you that my TVI theory might just hold some water after all. We will see when we get to the article about 2008 later on in the series.
[pullquote]Zambians vote by interest and rarely by issues[/pullquote]
The Bemba card seemed to have worked somehow for President Mwanawasa in 2001. Just look at the MMD’s performance in Luapula, Northern, Central and Copperbelt provinces. Those were (and some still are) MMD so called strongholds. How possible was it that ZRP under the late Ben Mwila came out second in Luapula province and performed terribly elsewhere apart from Northen province where ZRP came out 4th. How come UPND did not even make 4th position in Eastern, Luapula and Northen provinces? The answer is that despite our burying the heads in the sand, Zambians vote by interest and rarely by issues, unless it is time for a revolution vote such as the 1991 and 2011 elections.
Interest can be tribe, commercial activity, livelihood, etc. There is nothing wrong with that. In my articles from last year, The battle for the Bemba Speaking Electoral college – Part 2, I did mention that Bembas use their interest first when deciding who to vote for and I quote
“…It is well thought out, systematic and strategic for them. For that reason, they will always support a candidate who they think will not disrupt their trading business, rhetoric or not. They like brokering, selling services such as giving directions or indeed anything that does not involve strenuous work. That version is usually their own, one who has the same trader DNA sewn into them.”
From the numbers in the chart above, I think this earlier thought of mine is shown to hold water. Businessmen do the same when voting. Why do stocks sometimes fall when elections are near? Businesses become nervous and hope they get a candidate that will protect their interests. Why can’t a farmer in Monze do the same or a fisherman in Mpulungu? Who is better at handling the farmer’s interest, a fisherman? No way. Would a fisherman trust a farmer to understand their challenges and guard his interest, I don’t think so. Thus we shall keep getting votes that are skewed to people who form some sort of connection with the voter. That is the first instinct of every voter, like it or not. Unfortunately in Zambia, it also means region is an interest we like to keep. The numbers are there to tell us this all the time but we keep thinking and talking otherwise. The 50%+1 will have to deal with this reality.
In any case, the TVI had risen to 5 in 2001, which was really the mid point for the tribal vote. We still had sensible Zambians who cross-voted and made sure everyone got a piece here and there. It would get worse though in subsequent elections as I will show you in later articles. As at 2015 elections, were were almost at TVI 8 and my assumption is that we will get to TVI level 9 this year, but I digress.
Stranded Voter – Pain killer please
In the scenario above and assuming we had the 50%+ 1 rule, would FDDs 13% and UNIP’s 10% voters now in limbo have decided to vote again or stay away? If they did decide to vote in round two, who would they have voted for? Those would have been the votes to fight for by the two top contenders, but its also the time for painkillers for the headaches to befall the stranded voter. You had hoped your candidate wins. Now they are out. What do you do?
To answer this question, take a look at where FDD and UNIP votes mattered most. FDD could have had an impact in deciding who got which votes from Eastern and Lusaka provinces. Lets us face it, between them, UNIP and FDD had 63% of the vote that year in Eastern Province. UPND was not even top 4 there. So one would think that both would give the MMD their votes or just fold their arms. The loser then would be UPND who had almost nothing there in terms of votes. For FDD and UNIP, this was a very regional vote without doubt.
Where else was UNIP significant? Oh, in Northern province they had 13%. Again, the round two contender, in this case UPND was not given any meaningful votes in that province and so the stranded UNIP voters would probably give their vote to the top party in that province, MMD or stay away and still contribute nothing to the UPND’s cause, thus negatively affecting their prospects in round two. FDD is also useful in Lusaka province. They came second with 24% of the votes there. Where would they place their vote? This one is interesting but my guess is that at that time Lusaka was a smaller Eastern province and I think that over 80% of the 23% FDD vote would have gone to the MMD due to the fact that UPND got almost nothing from Eastern province in that election.
In the end a 50%+1 result would have enabled the MMD to still win this election after the second run, largely due to a dose of tribal voting and regional strongholds. The voting patterns would not have changed and both MMD and UPND had received regional votes in round 1. The winner of round two would have relied almost entirely on the stranded voters’ perception as to which candidate best represents their interests, whatever that may be. This result would been as I have predicted despite the fact that we still had not drifted too much into the upper scale of the TVI index.
In the next article as we analyse 2006 and 2008, I will show you how the TVI moved and how some ideas of alliances being contemplated for 2016 elections can be ill-timed or entirely wrong. 2006 was interesting, a new kid on the block arrived and two candidates could not both fit in the same region and tribal grouping. Something had to give…….
MMD President Nevers Mumba says the country risks having violent political campaigns if the Public Order Act is not changed ahead of the 11th August 2016 elections.
Speaking when he featured on a special program on Hot FM radio, Dr. Mumba said the POA has to be changed before the beginning of the campaigns for the General elections to allow other political players campaign freely.
He said failure to remove or making it ineffective, the Act is likely to be the major trigger for political violence in the coming months.
“The Public Order Act must be changed now prior to the beginning of election campaigns. The President and the IG can make a decision since the law is not harmful in its current state, the MMD changed that law to ensure that it does not require any political organization to obtain a permit except notify the police and if the police, like the excuse they are giving, do not have manpower to marshal the meetings the same legislation suggests that the political party organizes its own marshals.
“Failure to remove that law or make it ineffective, so that it is not used on your opponents, is going to be the major trigger for violence and insecurity in the country. If we don’t deal with it now the elections will not be violent free because the police do not understand this, they just want to keep their jobs, they want to impress the government in place and they don’t care about what we think or say so in order to keep their jobs they are willing to do anything even being unreasonable like they were in Lundazi were one officer throw a tear gas canister in a hall were people were having a peaceful meeting. Those things could continue if the President and the Inspector General of Police do not make it categorically clear to the police to leave all the political players alone, ” he said.
On the amended constitution Dr. Mumba said there is no constitution which is perfect and that Parliament exists to repeal and make new laws hence people should realise that not everything should be in the document for people to say their views have been taken on board.
He said trying to shoot down the amended constitution is a betrayal of Zambians because the PF did not come up with the document but that it was the people who wanted most of the progressive clause which are in the amended constitution.
And Dr. Mumba has advised political parties not to be arrogant by lying to themselves that they are more popular hence will be the outright victors in the elections.
He said the political dynamics have changed with the coming in of the running mate and 50%+1 vote clauses and that those using the arrogance of numbers will be shocked.
“What we have said as MMD is that with the signing of the new constitution all major parties must build bridges to survive and become part of the process. There is no big, small or medium political party now in view of what is going on and I think that it is the skillful political party which is not arrogant and self conceited to feel that them along are going to form government. As a matter of fact the shock will be that those who think will form government and using arrogance or conceit of saying we had so many votes last year so we just need so many votes, that is not how democracy works, it is not just adding up votes, this entire scenario is going to shift because of the new constitution,” he said.
On the economic front, the opposition leader called on President Lungu to give direction on what people should expect in terms of the economic challenges being faced in the country.
He said people should be told what their government is doing in order to turn around the economy as opposed to letting them speculate. He said that with information people are able to make economic decisions without negative repercussions.
He also called on the people of Zambia to consider giving the former ruling party a vote because they have a track record and are a proven party which was able to turn around the country’s economic fortunes after it took over from UNIP under difficult circumstances.
Cabinet has approved the contraction of a 41.5 million US dollar loan from the Export-Import Bank of Korea for the Establishment of a Public Safety and Information System Project in Lusaka.
Chief Government spokesperson Chishimba Kambwili said in a statement released to the media that the loan is meant to improve public safety and security in Lusaka.
Mr. Kambwili said that this followed growing concern on the rise in criminal activities as well as the disorderly conduct of some sections of society in the city.
Below is the full statement
PRESS STATEMENT BY THE CHIEF GOVERNMENT SPOKESPERSON ON THE DECISIONS MADE BY CABINET AT THE 1ST CABINET MEETING HELD AT MULUNGUSHI INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE CENTRE ON 18TH JANUARY, 2016
(LUSAKA) Monday, January 18, 2016, — At the 1st Cabinet Meeting held on 18th January, 2016 at Mulungushi International Conference Centre, Cabinet made the following were the decisions:
(a) Contraction of a Loan amounting to US$ 41.5 million from the Export-Import Bank of Korea for the Establishment of a Public Safety and Information System Project
Under this Item, Cabinet approved the contraction of a loan from the Export-Import Bank of Korea amounting to US$ 41.5 million to support the establishment of Public Safety and Information System Project in order to improve public safety and security in Lusaka.
Cabinet has approved the contraction of the loan as there has been growing concern on the rise in criminal activities as well as the disorderly conduct of some sections of our society.
The funds shall be utilised in ensuring that the mechanisms for crime detection and prevention, through modern technology are strengthened.
The loan is highly concessional with interest rate at 0.01%; repayment period of 25 years; grace period of 15 years; and service charge of 0.1%. These conditions are very favourable and would not create undue pressure on Government in terms of repayment.
(b) Passports (Amendment) Bill, 2015
Under this item, Cabinet approved in principle, the introduction of a Bill in Parliament to amend the Passports Act, in order to provide for the recognition of the International Criminal Police Organisation (INTERPOL) Passport Travel Document as an official travel document for Law enforcement officers travelling and carrying out official duties on INTERPOL related matters.
With the increase in international criminal activities, such as human trafficking, money laundering, theft of motor vehicles and cybercrime, it has become imperative that Law enforcement officers in the various countries around the world cooperate and work towards curbing these crimes. To ensure their participation in the International Criminal Police Organisation, it is necessary that they are effectively facilitated, especially with regard to travel so that they can expeditiously attend to the crimes.
Further, the 79th INTERPOL General Assembly approved the INTERPOL Travel Document initiative in order to ensure that Member countries could benefit from INTERPOL’s support and assistance without delay, whenever and wherever needed. It is, therefore, a requirement that Member countries of INTERPOL grant special Visa status to authorised holders of a valid INTERPOL Travel Document. Hence the need to amend the Passports Act.
(c) Appointment of Members of the Board of Directors for the Energy Regulation Board
Under this Item, Cabinet approved the appointment of seven (7) members of the Board of Directors for the Energy Regulation Board. The appointment is in line with Regulation 3 (1) of Schedule to the Energy Regulation Act, Chapter 436 of the Laws of Zambia as amended in 2003. The Board is responsible for the execution of its mandate of regulating the energy sector in line with the legal provisions.
(d) The 15th Session of the Zambia-Botswana Joint Permanent Commission of Co-operation (JPC)
Under this item, Cabinet took note of the information that the 15th Session of the Zambia-Botswana Joint Permanent Commission (JPC) of Co-operation was held in Livingstone, Zambia, from 2nd to 4th September, 2015.
The major outcomes of the 15th Session of the JPC will include the signing of a number of Memoranda of Understanding between the two countries in a number of areas such as Foreign Affairs, Justice, Cooperation on Combating Corruption and Economic Crime, Health, Customs and Excise, Science and Technology, Trade and Industry, Agriculture and Livestock, Tourism and Wildlife, Energy and Transport and Communications.
(e) Zambia’s Participation at the Twenty First Session of the United Nations World Tourism Organisation (UNWTO) General Assembly
Under this item, Cabinet took note of the information that Zambia participated in the 21st Session of the United Nations World Tourism Organisation (UNWTO) General Assembly, which was held from 12th to 17th September, 2015, in Medellin, Colombia, under the theme, “Fostering inclusive development and social transformation”.
One of the key outcomes of the meeting for Zambia was that Zambia was elected as a member of the Executive Council, which is UNWTO’s Governing body responsible for ensuring that the ?Organisation carries out its work.
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Hon. Chishimba Kambwili MINISTER OF INFORMATION AND BROADCASTING SERVICES (CHIEF GOVERNMENT SPOKESPERSON)
